Competitive Futures STEEP Report: Infrastructure

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    Competitive Futures STEEP Report: Infrastructure - Presentation Transcript

    1. INFRASTRUCTURE: Building for Tomorrow’s Competition
    2. THIS MONTH’S ISSUE Why We chose… INFRASTRUCTURE ROME HAD ROADS AND AQUEDUCTS WELL AHEAD OF ANY OF IT’S RIVALS. ITS EMPIRE TOWERED ABOVE THE WORLD FOR CENTURIES. The dark ages were ushered in when disorganized peoples from Northern Europe let that infrastructure fall into disrepair. What followed was centuries of ill health, isolation, ignorance and death. The fate of our collective industry is about more than the bureaucratic policies of the Department of Public Works, but of our future prosperity.
    3. THIS MONTH’S ISSUE Why We chose… INFRASTRUCTURE As you know from prior STEEP Reports, there are several strategic changes that await us: from a global talent crunch to urbanization, from immigration to “clean” industries. While many pieces are in play, one will greatly control how – and where – the rest of the chips fall. We’re talking about infrastructure. The physical capital of bridges, roads, ports, rail, and electrical grids doesn’t just provide the basic necessities of today, but actually functions as the roots of future economic productivity. As such, to understand what will provide the underpinnings of all the other decisions you will be making, this issue of the Competitive Futures STEEP Report, studies the major trends in infrastructure around the world.
    4. A personal note on Why We chose… INFRASTRUCTURE On July 30, 2007, Competitive Futures president Eric Garland was attending the international congress of the World Future Society, held in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Enjoying the beautiful Midwestern summer nights, he went jogging every evening over the Hennepin bridge, located next to Interstate 35, which connects St. Paul and Minneapolis. The following evening during rush hour, for no apparent reason, the Interstate 35W bridge collapsed, killing 13 commuters. A world-class infrastructure has been one of the hallmarks of the United States’ economy. If this infrastructure is threatened in the future, its impact will be broad reaching and instructive for businesses around the world.
    5. Today’s success was built on yesterday’s investments. Tomorrow’s success will depend on what you build TODAY. The long-term future success of your company may likely depend on the infrastructural decisions made today. 1. Inform yourself about the state of the infrastructure on which you depend. 2.Communicate with your government about the need for infrastructure. It’s the future of their tax base, too.
    6. Infrastructure: The Global View The world economy will require $30 trillion in infrastructure over the next 20 years – repaired bridges, new roads, water treatment, airports, ports, and much more Competitive Futures Rules for Managing the Future #5: Whenever people are going to write checks for BILLIONS or TRILLIONS, pay attention
    7. Those trillions of dollars will be spent because: 1.1 billion people around the world lack access to clean water 2.6 billion people around the world lack the basic necessity of a toilet 1.6 billion people worldwide lack access to electricity Billions of dollars are lost worldwide in fuel waste and lost productivity by traffic congestion Thousands of bridges waiting to be replaced Billions of dollars of trade could be unleashed by roads, bridges, and ports in emerging economies
    8. The Trends
    9. AT A GLANCE: Today’s infrastructure policies around the world Europe – Increasing connectivity among U.S - No strategy E.U. countries, modernizing Eastern for infrastructure member states development; coasting from old investments Middle East – Investing petro- profits in next- gen cleantech infrastructure China – World top investor in infrastructure Subsaharan Africa – relying on crumbling Latin America – colonial overwhelmed; Australia – infrastructure; expanding through coasting receiving help privatization from China
    10. Which countries are investing for tomorrow?
    11. CHINA: Planning to compete through infrastructure China is investing a full 9% of its GDP in infrastructure No other country is close. China invested $400 billion in transportation projects scheduled to be completed by 2010. Some examples: • 6 high-speed passenger railways, including a route from Beijing to Shanghai • 14 expressways, including a road from Hong Kong to Beijing • Dredging the Yangtze and Pearl rivers and expanding road and rail systems to connect to major ports The Three Gorges Dam: Sometimes, you need dictatorship • Expansions of 10 airports, including construction to get big projects done of the world's largest terminal building in Beijing.
    12. Consider Shanghai – the infrastructure of the future While the United States watches bridges collapse at random, China is engaging in world-class megaprojects aimed at increasing its competitiveness. Chief among these is SHANGHAI, which is building: Mag-lev train from the airport to the city center Ten ring roads, dozens of superhighways Bullet train connecting Shanghai to Beijing World’s highest capacity deep-water port
    13. Consider just China’s roadways… China went from only 169 miles (271 km) of highways in 1989, to approximately 25,000 miles (40,000 km) of highways today. As it expands manufacturing and commercial growth, the country plans to expand its highways to a total of 51,250 miles (82,000 km), reaching out into the rural areas as well as the already-vibrant Pacific coast.
    14. EUROPE: Growing closer through shared infrastructure Europe is focused on increasing the connectivity between EU member states: EU countries connecting transport, telecommunications, and energy networks to promote mobility and economic synergy. Planners building and expanding various north–south, east– west road and rail corridors, connecting to seaports, airports, and major cities. The Millau Bridge, France
    15. EUROPE: Growing closer through shared infrastructure In SPAIN, a15-year, $375 billion plan to add 5,625 miles (9,000 km) of high-speed rail (up from 625 miles [1,000 km]) and 3,750 miles (6,000 km) of new highways (expanding from 5,625 miles [9,000 km]). By 2020, 95% of the population within 18.75 miles (30 km) of a highway and 90 percent within 31 miles (50 km) of a high-speed rail station GERMANY looking to add a new high-speed rail line linking Cologne and Munich, maintain its rail and trucking infrastructure to continue economic growth UK - The government seeks to double rail ridership by 2030 and considers expanding high-speed rail north of London, linking Manchester and Scotland FRANCE - A new freight canal into Belgium is to be built, along with the highest-speed rail line in the world RUSSIA - A new $2.5 billion state investment fund targets financing transport projects, though much will be managed by private investors
    16. Infrastructure in Europe: Improving a variety of social problems. Think broadly about the definition of infrastructure – it’s not just for driving on! We find it interesting that investments in infrastructure can be used to improve a number of social or commercials problems. Consider Germany: With a birthrate of 1.4 per couple and 33% of its women refusing to have children, Germany is facing a future where the social security system could go bankrupt by 2030, and where the total population of ethnic Germans could reach only 10 million people of German descent by 2050, down from 80 million today. For Chancellor Angela Merkel, the answer to infertility is infrastructure.The German government is investing in child care, nursery schools, and tax credits for young people willing to have babies.
    17. The Middle East: Converting petro-dollars into Cleantech Infrastructure Just because they are sitting on all the petroleum doesn’t mean that the Gulf States are ignoring tomorrow’s needs. Abu Dhabi, once known for petroleum and pearls, will be host to what is planned as the world’s first zero carbon, zero waste city. In addition to investing aggressively in cleantech ventures, the city will rely entirely on solar and other renewable energy sources. The city is being constructed 17 kilometers (11 mi) east-south-east of the city of Abu Dhabi, next to its airport.
    18. Africa: Crumbling infrastructure keeps people in poverty We know that Africa remains impoverished, but poor transportation infrastructure is a major reason why. For example, people living in cities benefit from cheaper goods, while people in the countryside must pay more. Meanwhile, the vegetables sell for the least in their own villages, but getting them into the cities is very expensive with the poor infrastructure. Prices remain high, profits remain low, keeping the African countryside in desperate time.
    19. Africa: Small improvements go a long way The UN’s Fund for Agricultural Development estimates that African villages with better infrastructure: • Produce 1/3 more crops per hectare than those with poor infrastructure • Earn wages 12% higher • Pay 14% less for fertilizer
    20. Africa: Relying on deteriorated colonial infrastructure The colonial infrastructure was built in Africa to extract natural resources, not provide economic and cultural connections between nations. • Transport costs for Africa's 16 landlocked countries are on the average 50% higher than for coastal counties. • A World Bank official estimates that the cost of doing business is twice as high in Africa as it is in East Asia and 30% higher than any other region. As a result, the African Development Bank (AfDB) has announced that 60 percent of its funds for low-income countries will go to support infrastructure such as roads, dams, and bridges through 2011.
    21. Infrastructure in Africa: A questionable past forces a new debate on the future of international development Recommending investment in Africa can get complicated. For decades, the policies of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund were to recommend that African nations borrow vast sums to create a World Is this an exaggeration? Not by much. One infrastructure. The only problem was, in African military kleptocracies, the typical scenario went as such: 1. Borrow millions from World Bank, ostensibly for bridges, roads, electrical grid, etc. 2. Take 50% of loan. Deposit in Swiss numbered bank account. 3. Take 25% of loan. Buy German luxury cars, new weapons for personal defense forces. 4. Take remaining 25% of loan. Half-construct shoddy road, bridge, pipeline, or other. 5. Do not complete projects. 6. Do not repay loans. Doom country to both substandard infrastructure and crushing debt. 7. Flee to London when opposition forces seize capital. 8. Get Bono from U2 to suggest the World Bank forgive loans in name of world peace.
    22. So, who will invest in Africa’s infrastructure? China. The Chinese are making a big impact in Africa, building much-needed infrastructure. In 2006, China pledged $10 billion towards building Africa's infrastructure. China plans to build roads, railways, power stations and bridges at costs that experts believe are 25- 30% below their Western counterparts'. They may be the direct economic benificiary of this new infrastructure since, China has negotiated 2500 separate deals for supply raw materials from Africa. Note: The Chinese are using their own labor forces for this infrastructure, which does not benefit the local African economies. This is causing residual tension between the locals and the foreign construction firms.
    23. Latin America: overwhelmed by needs of growing populations • 58 million Latin Americans lack access to potable water •137 million don’t have adequate sanitation •Less than half of Mexico’s 213,000-mile road system is paved •Only 12 percent of Brazil’s 1 million mile road system is paved
    24. Latin America: building basic infrastructure Trash collection and maintenance Water and sewage treatment Basic latrines for rural areas Extending electricity Expanding road system, paving “connector” roads
    25. Latin America today: A few take steps to modernize In Mexico -New five-year, $250 billion program targets modernizing 12,400 miles (19,840 km) of highways and rural roads to international standards, expanding rails by 930 miles (1,488 km), and developing suburban rail, particularly around the Mexico City gateway. Brazil - $237 billion in public and private investments between 2007 and 2010, most coming from state- owned companies. About $56 billion targets new housing projects and $21 billion covers sanitation and sewage treatment in slums. PANAMA - The country widens its nearly 100-year-old canal to ensure a Central American passage for the new generation of supersized freighters and tankers. The $5 billion expansion is scheduled for completion by 2014.
    26. China versus Latin America: Why not manufacture in our own backyard? Question: Why did North American companies choose to manufacture in China instead of Latin America? Think of it. If cheap labor was the impetus behind developing a low-cost manufacturing sector, why did the West make deals with a Communist country across the Pacific instead with its neighbors to the south? El Salvador, Mexico, Peru and others are much closer than China, have both educated work forces and inexpensive low-skill labor, and speak romance languages that are far easier to translate (linguistically and culturally.) So why go all the way to China? ?
    27. China versus Latin America: Infrastructure was the deciding factor Answer: An average of 43 days is needed to ship goods out of El Salvador, including the export documentation, port & terminal handling, customs and inspection, and pre-arrival documentation. This is why CAFTA is reinvesting heavily in commercial infrastructure to assure the future success of the region - $300 Million in the Port of Monkey Point (Nicaragua), US$200 Million in the Port of La Union (El Salvador), and US$300 Million in the Port of Cortés (Honduras).
    28. The United States : coasting on old investments For a $13 trillion economy that drove the 20th Century, it is difficult to find evidence of a cohesive infrastructure plan on which the United States will build its 21st Century success. The levees at Lake I-35W Bridge, Minneapolis New York City water system, Pontchartrain, New Orleans leaking 20% of its capacity
    29. Once upon a time, the United States undertook massive projects in the construction of a world-class infrastructure
    30. Since the construction highway system in the 1960s, the US has had NO national infrastructure agenda
    31. Today, the America Society of Civil Engineers (which built the Interstate Highway System) recommends $1.6 trillion in reinvestment in national infrastructure in the next five years, including – but not limited to – the following projects: Circle Interchange, Chicago Brooklyn Bridge Canal Lock, New Orleans Atlanta water system Alaskan Way Viaduct Lake Okechobee, Florida Dover Bridge, Idaho Wolf Creek Dam, Kentucky
    32. Congestion in both road and rail is costing the U.S. billions Back in the 1960s, the United States was unified by the national effort to connect its cities by the construction of the Interstate Highway System, which served for decades as an example to the world. • Approximately 24% of major roads in the Today, slow trains, U.S. are in “poor to mediocre clogged highways. condition.” • 25.4 percent of bridges in the U.S. are structurally deficient or obsolete • Americans spend 4.2 billion hours stuck in traffic per year • Traffic congestion wastes $3 billion of gas a year • The use of public transportation has The Washington DC Beltway – increased 32% since 1995 – investment Don’t get us started has not kept up that pace
    33. US infrastructure: suffering from clogged arteries
    34. Key Challenges
    35. Key Challenges •Funding How to fund these massive investments? Government funding? Private? User fees? •Strategic planning for future Quantity vs. quality. Smart, strategic, well-planned development needed. •Political obstacles How to push through political barriers? China’s competitive advantage. • Public perception How to regain public trust in developing countries after massive infrastructure failures/ private corruption? •Corruption/ kickbacks Kickbacks are common with infrastructure projects in many countries. How to limit them to improve efficiency/ public benefit?
    36. Why You Should Care
    37. Strategic implications – why you should care The global need for infrastructure investment over the next 20 years $30 trillion is a presents a major business opportunity. Materials, engineering, LOT of business architecture, design, chemicals, automotive, logistics, IT – all these opportunity industries are implicated, and positioned to make major revenue from these projects. The need for massive infrastructure investment worldwide comes at Talent crunch meets massive the same time as the world faces a talent crunch. There likely won’t infrastructure needs be enough civil engineers and crane operators to go around. If your competition can’t get its products out of the ports and Infrastructure is the warehouses to meet customer demand, they can’t very well compete. future of Available infrastructure is the determinant of the future winners and competition losers in tomorrow’s markets.
    38. Strategic implications – why you should care As the West and Asia Pacific move to more sophisticated, higher- The rich/poor gap output infrastructure, the economic position of the global South threatens to widen could fall even further by comparison. Governments and NGOs must be aware of future economic development challenges. Sitting in traffic is fun for nobody. But in a world of expensive Traffic will go from petroleum, this annoyance will become expensive enough to put annoying to transport companies and many manufacturers in jeopardy. economically fatal People talk all the time about the “green revolution” or a commitment to clean industries. It is practically impossible to create Cleantech will be decided by a zero-carbon industry on 19th or 20th century infrastructure. infrastructure Therefore, trillions in infrastructure must redesigned. This isn’t a bad thing – in fact it represents trillions in opportunity, and the real possibility for a better world tomorrow.
    39. What To Do Today
    40. Recommended options: What can you do today? Assess Infrastructure – it’s not just for countries. When taking the long-range competitors’ view assessing competitor strengths and weaknesses, examine where futures by their their long-range dollars are going: facilities, human capital, R&D infrastructural programs, leadership. If they haven’t got the capital assets, their investments advantage will weaken. Lobby your Deficient investment in infrastructure cannot be borne by individual national companies or industries – these are valuable goods that belong to all government to people of a nation, and as such can only be financed through the take the long view government. Policymakers must be advised that their future tax base will on infrastructure be assured only through rather expensive projects. Look at your To better examine your own strategy, and to help government officials to global operations decide what is required for tomorrow’s economy – make an inventory of – now and in the your own needs – now and in the future – in terms of industry. Do you future – and determine what need rail for shipping, trolleys to bring your employees to work, ports for you require for global logistics? infrastructure
    41. Addendum: Infrastructure- By the Numbers Figure Source The U.S. has reduced its spending on infrastructure from "Infrastructure 2008: A Competitive Advantage." Urban 3.0% in 1960 to 2.4% of GDP today, while the Chinese Land Institute. are investing $150 billion annually, or 9% of its GDP. By the end 2007, China had built 53,600 km of toll roads. "Rushing on by road, rail and air." The Economist. It aims to have built 70,000 km of expressways by 2020. http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?s tory_id=10697210 An estimated $30 TRILLION investment in infrastructure "The New Trend: Infrastructure." Bob Frick. January 11, is projected worldwide over the next 20 years to build 2008. and maintain roads, bridges, water systems, and oil and http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/picks/archive/2008/pic gas pipelines. k0111.htm China-Africa trade, at almost $40 billion last year David White. "The China Factor: A Spectacular according to Chinese figures, quadrupled since 2000 and Resurgence." The Financial Times. is expected to reach $100 billion in the next 5-10 years. In the past 20 years, communities across the U.S. have “Sustaining Our Nation’s Water Infrastructure.” U.S. spent approximately $ 1 trillion on drinking water Environmental Protection Agency. treatment and supply and wastewater treatment and disposal. It takes an average of 43 days to ship goods out of El “The State of Latin American Infrastructure and Salvador, including the export documentation, port & Logistics.” Latin American Logistics. terminal handling, customs and inspection, and pre- http://www.latinamericanlogistics.org/articles/the-state- arrival documentation. of-latin-american-infrastructure-and-logistics.htm
    42. Addendum: Infrastructure- By the Numbers Figure Source Since 1995, Americans' use of public transportation has H.R. 6052, The Saving Energy Through Public increased by 32%. In 2007, the U.S. public made more Transportation Act of 2008. than 10.3 billion trips on public transportation - the http://transportation.house.gov/Media/File/Full%20Com highest number in 50 years. mittee/HR6052/HR6052%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf Approximately 24% of major roads in the U.S. are in poor "Infrastructure 2008: A Competitive Advantage." Urban to mediocre condition. 25.4% of bridges in the U.S. are Land Institute. structurally deficient or obsolete. China is investing heavily in African infrastructure, David White. "The China Factor: A Spectacular building roads, railways, power stations and bridges at Resurgence." The Financial Times. costs that experts believe are 25-30% below their Western counterparts'. Americans are stuck in traffic 4.2 billion hours per year. “Opportunity ’08: Transportation and the Economy.” Traffic congestion forces Americans to waste $3 billion of Brookings Institution. gasoline a year. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/04 28_transportation/20080428_transportation.pdf Spain’s 15-year $375 billion expansion will place 95 % of "Infrastructure 2008: A Competitive Advantage." Urban the population within 18.75 mile (30 km) of a highway Land Institute. and 90% within 31 miles (50 km) of a high-speed rail station by 2020. 2.6 billion people around the world lack the basic "International Year of Sanitation 2008." United Nations. necessity of a toilet. http://es.un.org/iys
    43. Addendum: Infrastructure- By the Numbers Figure Source The UN’s Fund for Agricultural Development estimates “The Road to Hell Is Unpaved.” The Economist. that African villages with better infrastructure: produce http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=1 1/3 more crops per hectare than those with poor 487583 infrastructure; earn wages 12% higher, and pay 14% less for fertilizer. According to a World Bank official, the cost of doing David White. "A Change to Bridge the Gap." The business is twice as high in Africa as it is in East Asia Financial Times. and 30% higher than any other region. Transport costs http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34e64922-73dd-11db-8dd7- for Africa's 16 landlocked countries are on the average 0000779e2340,dwp_uuid=1f2588a0-765d-11db-8284- 50% higher than for coastal counties. 0000779e2340.html?nclick_check=1 Less than half of Mexico’s 213,000-mile road system and "Infrastructure 2008: A Competitive Advantage." Urban only 12 percent of Brazil’s 1 million mile road system is Land Institute. paved. With birthrates of 1.4 per couple and 33% of the women "2030: le Big Bang Demographique," ARTE Television refusing to have children, Germany faces a future where and Groupe Futuribles. by 2050 the population of ethnic Germans could fall to http://www.artevod.com/programDetails.do?emissionId= 10 million (from 80 million today). 2138
    44. Find out more: Books Rischard, J.F. High Noon:Twenty Global Problems, Twenty Years to Solve Them. (2002) http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0465070094/sr=8- 20/qid=1211983152/ref=olp_product_details?ie=UTF8&me=&qid=121 1983152&sr=8-20&seller Levy, Sidney M. Build, Operate, Transfer: Paving the Way for Tomorrow’s Infrastructure. (1996) http://www.amazon.com/Build-Operate-Transfer-Tomorrows- Infrastructure/dp/047111992X/ref=sr_1_40?ie=UTF8&s=books&q id=1211983539&sr=8-40 Makansi, Jason. Lights Out: The Electricity Crisis, the Global Economy, and What It Means To You. (2007) http://www.amazon.com/Lights-Out-Electricity-Crisis- Economy/dp/0470109181/ref=sr_1_11?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=121198 2592&sr=8-11
    45. Find out more: Books Goodman, Alvin S. and Hastak, Makarand. Infrastructure Planning Handbook. (2006) http://www.amazon.com/Infrastructure-Planning-Handbook-Alvin- Goodman/dp/0071474943/ref=si3_rdr_bb_product Grigg, Neil S. Water, Wastewater and Stormwater Infrastructure Management. (2003) http://www.amazon.com/Water-Wastewater-Stormwater- Infrastructure- Management/dp/1566705738/ref=sr_1_37?ie=UTF8&s=books&qi d=1211982106&sr=8-37
    46. Find out more: Articles "A Change to Bridge the Gap." David White. The Financial Times. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34e64922-73dd-11db-8dd7-0000779e2340,dwp_uuid=1f2588a0-765d-11db-8284- 0000779e2340.html?nclick_check=1 “America’s Infrastructure: Ramping Up or Crashing Down.” Brookings Institution. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2008/01_infrastructure_katz_puentes/01_infrastructure_katz_puentes.pdf “China, U.S., and India Driving Water Infrastructure Spending.” Joshua Levine. http://seekingalpha.com/article/45274-china-u-s-and-india-driving-water-infrastructure-spending “Clogged Arteries.” Bruce Katz and Robert Puentes. The Atlantic. http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/road-rail-air-networks “Current and Future Investment in Infrastructure.” Testimony of Peter R. Orszag, Director of the Congressional Budget Office before the House Committee on the Budget and Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. May 8, 2008. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/91xx/doc9136/05-07-Infrastructure_Testimony.pdf "Freight Rail Transportation: Long-Term Issues." A CBO Paper. January 2006. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/70xx/doc7021/01-17-Rail.pdf “Increasing the Capacity of Freight Transportation.” By: David S. Ortiz, Brian Weatherford, Henry H. Willis, Myles Collins, Naveen Mandava, Chris Ordowich. The RAND Corporation. http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF228/
    47. Find out more: Articles "Infrastructure 2008: A Competitive Advantage." Urban Land Institute. http://www.uli.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Home&CONTENTFILEID=41493&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm “Infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments and Key Challenges.” Marianne Fay and Mary Morrison. The World Bank. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAC/Resources/LAC_Infrastructure_complete.pdf "International Year of Sanitation 2008." United Nations. http://es.un.org/iys “National Rail Freight Infrastructure Capacity and Investment Study.” Cambridge Systematics Inc. September 2007. http://www.aar.org/PubCommon/Documents/natl_freight_capacity_study.pdf “Opportunity ‘O8: Transportation and the Economy.” Brookings Institution. April 28, 2008. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2008/0428_transportation/20080428_transportation.pdf “Rushing on by road, rail and air.” The Economist. February 14, 2008. http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10697210 “Status Report on the Water-Wastewater Infrastructure Program for the US-Mexico Borderlands.” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. http://www.epa.gov/owm/mab/mexican/usmexrpt/index.htm “Sustaining Our Nation’s Water Infrastructure.” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. http://www.epa.gov/waterinfrastructure/pdfs/brochure_si_sustainingournationswaters.pdf
    48. Contact For more information or to discuss what this means for you, contact: steepreport@competitivefutures.com (202) 508-1496
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