BIG BROTHER
TECHNOLOGIES

THIS MONTHʼS ISSUE
Why we chose…
Big Brother Technologies
We chose to examine forecasts for surveillance technologies for this month’s STEEP
Report because the technologies are without precedent and the social implications
could change the future of our entire civilization.
There is surprisingly little discussion in the media about the rapid development of
information technologies that will be used to track individuals anywhere on the globe
in real time.
These technologies will not be implemented as part of some government scheme to
control citizens, but all for useful commercial and government applications –
marketing, logistics, health policy, human resources, and security.
This doesn’t change the gravity of the ethical (and business!) implications of what’s
next for surveillance technologies.
The topic requires dialogue sooner rather than later.

A portfolio of surveillance technologies will soon be able to track most
of the world’s population in real time.
These technologies, and the knowledge they give you, will provide
interesting new capabilities, and many liabilities.
Through technologies such as GPS, RFID, and facial recognition, we are rapidly developing
the capacity to track billions of people in real time.
The power of ubiquitous computing and sensing will give companies and government
agencies dramatic new powers and significant liabilities.
Our societies may never be the same.
Talk to your employees, your lawyers, and your elected officials about the implications.

The Trends

A portfolio of information technologies is converging in the near future (2010+) with dramatic social
consequences, and plenty of business opportunities, too:
All of these technologies have existed in one form or another for years, but will soon be coming together to
create a seamless global network of data about human beings, where they go and what they do.
Radio Frequency Global Positioning Facial recognition
Identification Tags (RFID) Systems (GPS) software
Biometrics Ubiquitous video

Trend #1: The RFID market is set to explode:
One trillion “talking barcodes” sold by 2017?
With a variety of maturing applications, from improving global logistics to preventing
pharmaceutical counterfeiting, the market for RFID tags will explode in the next ten years.
Invented and in use since 1955, radio-frequency identification chips (RFID) are
essentially barcodes that “talk.” With a tiny chip and an antenna to broadcast its
unique code, short-range radio signals broadcast a limited amount of information
to any device capable of listening.
This technology is maturing rapidly, having dropped in price over the last eight years
by way of numerous applications in the logistics industry.
In 2007, 2.24 billion tags were sold worldwide and analysts project that by 2017 the annual
sales could reach $25 billion.
“Microchips Everywhere: A Future
Vision.”Todd Lewan. Seattle Times.
January 29, 2008.

The future of RFID:
From the pallet load to the individual unit
1998 - 2008
Until recently, the high price of RFID has kept it
on pallets, monitoring batches of products in
transit.
It has been too expensive to have one on each
unit, but its uses for the mass transit of goods
has still been worth the investment.
2009 - 2025
With the prices continuing to fall,
RFID tags are finally being
incorporated on individual items,
allowing companies to one day
track each of their individual
products all the way through
the supply chain.

The future of RFID:
From the pallet load to the individual person
Tracking shampoo bottles is great, but that’s just the beginning for RFID.
Now companies are selling RFID tags to help identify and track pets, children and the elderly.
Mom’s
RFID
necklace:
stylish and Pet
globally chipping:
inject once
trackable
into Fluffy
and never
worry
Child protection:
as seen on that
Duracell commercial

The future of RFID:
From the pallet load to the individual person
For employees who work with confidential or highly-sensitive information,
many companies are choosing to implant RFID chips in their workers, increasing
security and dispensing with messy ID cards.
RFID

Trend #2:
GPS sales predicted to hit one billion units per year by 2012
GPS chips, which record and broadcast their location via satellite, are now commonly used in
navigation and telecommunications, tracking almost anything in real time.
The market for these devices is poised for exponential growth.

Trend #2:
GPS sales predicted to hit one billion units per year by 2012
Between real-time navigation, geo-tagging of images in digital cameras, emergency rescue, and more, there are seemingly
limitless applications for GPS.
If market forecasts are correct, then billions of digital devices will begin streaming out digital information about their
position. The era of losing track of things - or people - may be over...perhaps permanently.
"GPS chipset sales to approach
one billion by 2012 according
to market research firm,"
Digitimes, April 19th, 2008.

GPS will enhance advertising in the future:
100 million Europeans will subscribe to “location-based services”
Advertisers are in an arms-race when it comes to capturing the attention of the public, always looking for the next technology to
grab eyeballs for a few seconds. Ad firms are already employing GPS to customize advertisement to the individual based on that
person’s position on the globe.
Yell.com has installed digital billboards
fitted with GPS technology on the sides of
London buses to show advertisements that
correspond to the location of the bus.
"Euro LBS users to top 100
million by 2012." GPS World.
April 9, 2008.

Trend #3:
Facial recognition software gaining in sophistication and use
Combining software analysis, cameras, and databases, facial recognition software could be the
“nosy neighbor” of the future.
This cutting-edge software can quickly scan faces at a distance and compare results to any
database – domestic or international.
Facial recognition: a quick primer
1. A tiny camera projects an invisible light pattern onto the subject’s face, revealing
the face's surface geometry, which is captured on streaming video at 30 frames
per second.
2. This 3-D measurement allows point-to-point measurement, such as forehead to
cheekbone.
3. The face pattern is plugged into an algorithm to generate a 3-D "mesh" created
from measurements smaller than a millimeter.
4. A biometric template -- based on bone structures that don't change over time --
is created from the image and is stored in the database.
5. The database stores the images, comparing them to locate matches.

Facial recognition:
The billboard of tomorrow will watch YOU
Worried about your latest ad campaign? With facial recognition software, billboards like this one analyze who looks at the
advertisement, where they focus, and for how long.
And unlike biometrics, it requires ZERO consent from those under observation.
As sensor technology advances, advertisers should be able to capture additional biometric data: breathing frequency, anxiety levels,
blood flow patterns, and more.
“Male,
European descent, age
27, slightly overweight staring This future is now - these
1.3 seconds at the baby, 2.1 devices are currently in
“Wow, seconds at the space suit, 2 use, located in:
finally made a seconds at the film title.” • McDonald’s (Singapore)
movie out of the
book! Always • Ikea (Europe)
liked Crichton.” • A&E (New York)
• 30 more locations in US
“Billboards with facial recognition software trickling out.”
Nilay Patel. June 4, 2008. http://www.engadget.com/
2008/06/04/billboards-with-facial-recognition-software-
trickling-out/

Trend #4:
Biometrics: monitoring physiology
Biometrics is a system of sensors and software that measure
human physiological changes. Improvements in sensor
resolution and computing is allowing new applications for
the collection of data on the human body.
One such application:
Microsoft recently filed a patent application for the “Monitoring
System 500” a “virtual middle manager” that will use biometrics to
measure the physiological characteristics of people and to enhance their
productivity by making managerial suggestions at the appropriate times.
• Monitor employees’ heart rate, breathing, body
temperature, facial expressions and blood pressure to
sense when an employee is under stress, frustrated, confused or
anxious
• Record and analyze words and numbers used and websites visited
• Measure workload
• Test for honesty
“How computer spy in the office will monitor everything you do.” David Brown and Elizabeth Judge. London Times. January 16, 2008.

Trend #5:
Video surveillance expanding throughout urban areas
Governments on both sides of the Atlantic are increasing their investments in
video surveillance, despite a tenuous relationship between enhanced
surveillance and reduction in crime.
The United States now has approximately 30 million surveillance
“Every Briton can expect to be caught on camera on average
cameras in operation, mostly in cities – roughly one for every 10
some 300 times a day.”
people. Nearly every block of Manhattan is under camera surveillance.
“Learning to live with Big Brother.” The Economist. Sept 27, 2007.

Trend #6:
China is combining all of the above technologies into a seamless
nationwide digital surveillance regime
Golden Shield – China’s nationwide digital surveillance network will link national, regional, and local
security agencies through a web of surveillance technologies, featuring:
• Speech recognition
• Facial recognition
• Closed circuit TV
• National ID cards
• Credit records
• Internet surveillance

China:
The test run for the surveillance society of tomorrow
Through Golden Shield, the police will be able to coordinate vast amounts of data
Speech recognition Closed-circuit
telephone system TV: monitoring
monitoring public spaces
Nationwide database: Database -
tracking instantly
citizens since birth comparing
fingerprints
RFID-implanted Facial recognition –
national ID cards – capturing and
scannable at a matching facial
distance images in a crowd

Shenzhen: The test run
In the rapidly-growing city of Shenzhen, police are installing over 20,000 surveillance
cameras in the streets, guided by American-made facial recognition software.
• This web of cameras will be linked to the
country’s national ID system, tracking
citizens by RFID tags.
• Anyone who does not get the ID card
cannot live in Shenzhen and will be denied
government benefits.
• The system is designed to let the
government track and control the
movement of political and religious
dissidents, as well as the general populace.
“China’s Big Brother Surveillance to Dwarf UK.”
Richard Spencer. Daily Telegraph, Aug 17, 2007

What To Do Today

Strategic implications –
why you should care
Your company may Through their logistics, many private companies will be able to track their products around the world in real
have some of this time, even perhaps into the homes of their customers. If that is true, you will have access to unprecedented
sensitive types of information, enhancing market research and also exposing you to new liabilities.
information
Consider that the Talent Crunch (STEEP #1) will increase the competition for top talent. Do talented
You could improve people want to work in a creative, relaxed environment of respect, or in front of surveillance desktop
recruitment though monitor that tracks your iris movements, corrects your behavior and reports idle time?
a policy of not spying
on people at work While some software designers see this as a cost-cutting way to remove middle management, the social
consequences could be chilling.
Data security will
The drawback to all of these devices is that they will produce a data stream of near endless amount of
become
data. IT infrastructures will need to grow along with the total amount of data. All this will occur while IT
exponentially more
talent is in short supply.
difficult

Strategic implications –
why you should care
Advertising may Remember that advertising is an arms race. Ad spend grows with every new technology: printing, radio,
not grow in television, Internet, mobile, and now ubiquitous computing. Many advertisers find that the result is a
effectiveness from generation of young people highly skeptical to media messages. This could just be plain-old overload.
all of this targeting
Many companies do business all over the world. These technologies may allow companies, through
Surveillance in a packaging or advertising, to collect data on populations in foreign countries.
global market has
significant This is VERY close to the concept of central intelligence by foreign governments. Private companies will
complications be implicated, if not directly involved, in intelligence apparatuses of foreign or domestic governments. It
may be much more than you bargained for.
China will likely lead
Unhindered by the guaranteed freedoms of the West, China will likely be the pioneers of new surveillance
the world in the
technologies. They will set the standards and show best practices in how to integrate a variety of data
rollout of these
streams for the purpose of centralized security. Western governments may not have the stomach -or the
technologies
Constitutional right - to install similar programs, but China will show where this can lead.

Strategic implications –
why you should care
This could be a A major question is posed from the development of these technologies: Who owns the data being
gathered here? If you are capturing digital video of me shopping, is it your data, or my performance,
turning point for
captured on tape? Intellectual property law will become more complex with every new data stream
intellectual property created.

Recommended options:
What can you do today?
This trend looks like it leads directly to “the liability of the future.” Everyone of these technologies
Call your general described will push ahead to the limits of the rights to privacy. Whichever next-generation
counsel information technology you are choosing, consider the legal precedents, famous cases where
companies were liable for data. This could be germane to your future product development plans.
The ethical implications of these information technologies will define the culture of an organization.
Talk to your Plan on confronting some unprecedented moral, ethical and social questions. Discussing the
colleagues possibilities with your colleagues early may reduce tensions later when these technologies come on
line.
If your business is planning on rolling out data-gathering technologies that will touch the general
Talk to your public, now might be a good time to start focus groups on how people perceive your move. It is still
customers early, and many people are unaware of these technologies on the horizon. When they reach a critical
mass, there could be a public backlash. Make sure you understand how your reputation could be
affected.

Addendum: Big Brother Tech - By the Numbers
Figure Source
There are approximately 30 million surveillance cameras in the U.S. “Learning to live with Big Brother.” The Economist. Sept 27, 2007.
– roughly one for every ten people.
Analysts project that by 2017 cumulative sales of RFID tags will top “Microchips Everywhere: A Future Vision.” Todd Lewan. Seattle
$1 trillion - generating more than $25 billion in annual revenues for Times. January 29, 2008.
the industry.
GPS sales are expected to hit $1 billion by 2012. "GPS chipset sales to approach one billion by 2012 according to
market research firm," Digitimes, April 19th, 2008.
100 million Europeans will subscribe to location-based services. "Euro LBS users to top 100 million by 2012." GPS World. April 9,
2008.
Facial recognition software used behind the billboards. Ads for “Billboards with facial recognition software trickling out.” Nilay
McDonalds in Singapore, Ikea in Europe, A&E in New York, and 30 Patel. June 4, 2008. http://www.engadget.com/2008/06/04/
different locations in malls across the U.S. billboards-with-facial-recognition-software-trickling-out/
“Every aspect of computer users’ lives — from their heartbeat to a “How computer spy in the office will monitor everything you do.”
guilty smile — could be monitored and immediately analysed under David Brown and Elizabeth Judge. London Times. January 16, 2008.
the futuristic system detailed in Microsoft’s patent application.”

Find out more: Books
1984 by George Orwell.
(Why not have another look? The technology is there.)
The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force Us to Choose
Between Privacy and Freedom? By David Brin.
RFID Applied. By Jerry Banks.

Find out more: Books
Loving Big Brother: Performance, Privacy and Surveillance Space.
By John McGrath.
No Place to Hide: Behind the Scenes of Our Emerging Surveillance Society. By
Robert O’Harrow.
Handbook of Biometrics. By Anil K. Jain, Patrick Flynn and
Arun A. Ross.

Find out more: Articles
“Big Brother gets bigger, says global privacy study.” Elinor Mills. CNET News. January 2, 2008.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-9838743-7.html
“Big Brother in China – via U.S. technology.” Warren Mass. The John Birch Society. August 16, 2007.
http://www.jbs.org/node/5153
“Bigger Monster, Weaker Chains: The Growth of an American Surveillance Society.” Jay Stanley and Barry Steinhardt. ACLU. January 2003.
http://www.aclu.org/FilesPDFs/aclu_report_bigger_monster_weaker_chains.pdf
“Biometrics – the future for flying bliss?” Nick Heath. February 21, 2008.
http://www.silicon.com/retailandleisure/0,3800011842,39170130,00.htm
“Do Americans Care About Big Brother?” Massimo Calabresi. Time. February 14, 2008.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1722537,00.html?xid=feed-cnn-topics
"Euro LBS users to top 100 million by 2012." GPS World. April 9, 2008. http://lbs.gpsworld.com/gpslbs/LBS+News/Euro-LBS-Users-to-
Top-100M-by-2012/ArticleStandard/Article/detail/509169
"GPS chipset sales to approach one billion by 2012 according to market research firm," Digitimes.
April 19th, 2008.
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20080419PR200.html

Find out more: Articles
“How computer spy in the office will monitor everything you do.” David Brown and Elizabeth Judge. London Times. January 16, 2008.
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article3193223.ece
“Japan’s teenage smokers face wrinkle test.” Justin McCurry. The Guardian. May 13, 2008.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/13/japan.health
“Learning to live with Big Brother.” The Economist. Sept 27, 2007.
http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9867324
“Microchips Everywhere: A Future Vision.” Todd Lewan. Seattle Times. January 29, 2008.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004151388_apchippingamericaiii29.html?syndication=rss
“New security camera can ‘see’ through clothes.” CNN. April 16, 2008.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/04/16/camera.england/index.html
“RFID Tags: Big Brother in Small Packages.” Declan McCullagh. CNET News.
http://news.cnet.com/2010-1069-980325.html

Contact
For more information or to discuss what
this means for you, contact:
steepreport@competitivefutures.com
(202) 508-1496