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Effect of climate change on cocoa yields and export in nigeria

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  • 1. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA YIELDS AND EXPORT IN NIGERIA BY OMUEMU W. EFE This paper was submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Award of Postgraduate Diploma in International Trade Policy and Trade Law Awarded by Trade Policy Training Center in Africa [trapca] P.O.Box 3030 ARUSHA, TANZANIA NOVEMBER 11TH 2012 0
  • 2. ABSTRACT The production and export of Cocoa in Nigeria has been experiencing a declining trend in recent years and many factors have been identified by different researchers. One of these factors is the effect of climatic factors hence; this study examines the effect of climatic variables in cocoa yields and export in Nigeria, rainfall, temperature and precipitation were observed to have been the most important climatic factors that affect cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. However, a trend analysis of data used, revealed that climate change had minimal effect on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria, this may be attributed to reform programs put in place by Nigeria government since 1999 to revamp coco sector with the establishment of National Cocoa Development Committee (NCDC). It was however, noted that unfavorable climatic conditions or climate change will impact negatively on cocoa yields resulting to decrease in export; if there is drought, excessive temperature, low rainfall and precipitation couple with reduction in farm land due to desertification, there will be a decline in productivity resulting to a decline in export as well. For this situation to be remedy, Nigeria’s adaption and mitigation strategies and policies must be improved upon and implemented. It was recommended that a holistic approach should be adopted by Government and all stakeholders by investing in this sector through Research and Development, proper utilization of lands in Nigeria lying fallow for cocoa production in the cocoa region or belt. Cocoa farmers should be educated on modern trends in the cultivation of this crop and value addition to their raw cocoa for more market access and competition. Measures should be put in place to address the issues of the effects climate variability on cocoa yield and the decline in its export. KEY WORD Climate Change, Cocoa Export and Yield. 1
  • 3. LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION BNRCC Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change CAN Cocoa Association of Nigeria CFAN Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria. COGAN Cocoa Growers Association of Nigeria. CRIN Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria CBN Central Bank of Nigeria FOA Food Organization GHG Green House Gas IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NCDC National Cocoa Development Committee NRI National Rainfall Index NASPA-CCN National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria NAMA National Approach Mitigation Action EIA Environmental Impact Assessment NEST Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team 2
  • 4. Contents ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................................. 1 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATION ........................................................................................ 2 CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.0 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.1. Background ........................................................................................................................................ 6 1.2. Statement of Problem ......................................................................................................................... 8 1.3. Research Hypothesis .......................................................................................................................... 8 1.4. Hypothesis.......................................................................................................................................... 8 1.5. Significance of Study ......................................................................................................................... 8 1.6. Research Objective ............................................................................................................................ 8 1.7. Broad Objective ................................................................................................................................. 8 1.8. Specific Objective .............................................................................................................................. 8 1.9. Limitations of Study .......................................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................................................... 10 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................................................... 13 3.0. METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................. 13 3.1. Source of Data.................................................................................................................................. 13 CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................................................... 14 4.1. DATA PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULT ............................................. 14 4.2. Data Presentation ............................................................................................................................. 14 4.3 Interpretation of Results .................................................................................................................... 17 4.4. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies of Climate Change in Nigeria .............................................. 19 CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................................................... 21 5.0. SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION ........................................................ 21 5.1. Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 21 3
  • 5. 5.2 Suggestion ......................................................................................................................................... 21 5.3. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 22 References ................................................................................................................................................... 23 4
  • 6. CHAPTER 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION The importance of cocoa to Nigeria’s economy cannot be overemphasized; cocoa is Nigeria’s second non - oil export exchange earner followed by leather and a major source of employment to over five million Nigerians. Cocoa is grown in 14 States in Nigeria knows as the cocoa berth. The states are Akwa Ibom, Abia , Cross River, Edo, Delta, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, Ogun,Osun, Kogi, Kwara, Eboyin and River with annual production rate of 400,000 metric tons . In 2005 cocoa’s contribution to export revenue stood at $136.6m with Netherland, UK, Spain, France, Germany, Italy and USA as export destination, (http://farriconsultingng.blogspot.com) Prior independence in 1960 cocoa played an important role in Nigeria’s economic development, generating 90% of her foreign exchange earnings and the largest employer of labor. Proceeds generated from cocoa exports in the 1960s were used to build monumental structures in Nigeria, especially in South West, such as the cocoa house. Most of the nation's today's leaders were equally educated through cocoa proceeds; such was the invaluable importance of cocoa to Nigeria's economy few decades ago, (www.cooporate –nigeria.net). Nigeria still produces 300’000 - 350’000 tones of cocoa a year; the country exports about 96% of its cocoa crop. In 2010, Cocoa exports was 360,000 metric tons valued at $373,855.00, this could be attributed to good weather conditions and improved quality in stock in the growing regions known as the cocoa berth, (http://faostat.fao.org/site). However, the production and export of cocoa witnessed a declined in the 1980s which was attributed to different factors by different school of thoughts; the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) adopted in 1980s is believed to be one of the factors,1 and climate change etc. 1 The devaluation of the naira and the abolition of agricultural marketing boards in 1986, where IMF conditions for SAP, this led to the decline in cash-crop (cocoa) output. The failure to significantly increase output was caused partly by the lack of incentives for producers to invest in crop production, ( http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/nigeria) 5
  • 7. Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site 1.1. Background The production capacity of cocoa in Nigeria has reached about 385, 000 metric tons per annum, an increase of 215,000 metric tons from year 2000 production level. This places Nigeria as the fourth highest cocoa producing nation in the world after Ivory Coast and Ghana, producing 360,000 metric tons valued at $378,855 in 2010 ( www.faostat.fao.org). Cocoa exports in Nigeria accounted for more than 20% of the country’s foreign exchange in the early 1970’s.Nigeria’s major export partners are Europe and the United States. The sector contribution to employment was about two-thirds of the population. 6
  • 8. In the 1980’s Nigeria became a major importer of cocoa and its by-products; due to the shift from agro based economy to petroleum and the resultant effect was the decline in cocoa export, due to rural urban migration of cocoa farmers, growers and youths in search of white collar jobs in the oil industry. Despite the importance of cocoa in pre and post independence in Nigeria, this sector was neglected as a result of the discovery of oil in 1956 and its subsequent production in commercial quantity; an era in the history of Nigeria known as the oil boom of the 1970s . This impacted negatively on cocoa farming in Nigeria and resulted to the under development and investment in this sector prior the 1999 reforms of President Olusegun Obasanjor administration. The failure of the marketing boards in the 1990s was disappointing and facilitated the liberalization of the cocoa market. Nigeria became the first cocoa producer in West Africa to liberalize this sector, (Nwachukwu, Ifeanyi, Ndubuto, 2010). However, the liberalization of this sector in 1986 resulted in the abolition of the Nigerian Cocoa Board, a government agency that controlled the marketing of cocoa, and the industry was deregulated. With assistance from the World Bank, the government was able to restored cocoa production in the late 1980s through replanting programs and producer price supports. In the quest to revitalize the industry; in 1999 the government established the National Cocoa Development Committee (NCDC). The NCDC promotes cocoa production and trade in cooperation with the various growers’ agencies operating in the industry, like the Cocoa Association of Nigeria (CAN), the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria (CFAN), and the Cocoa Growers Association of Nigeria (COGAN)2. Also the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN); a government owned parastatal to conduct research on cocoa, distributes improved seedlings to farmers and educate them on modern agricultural practices as well as business development skills. 2 The Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) is another major stakeholder in the sector: established in 1964 as a government parastatal, the Institute conducts research on cocoa, distributes seedlings to farmers and trains growers in modern agricultural practices as well as in business development skills. www.coorporate-nigeria.net 7
  • 9. 1.2. Statement of Problem Cocoa has been one of the leading Nigeria’s agricultural export products for several years now, but there has be a significant decline in the yields and export of cocoa in Nigeria over the years. It is against this backdrop that a quantitative method of analysis with the aid of graph as analytical tool was used determines the effects of climate change on the variability of cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. 1.3. Research Hypothesis 1.4. Hypothesis Climate change influence on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria 1.5. Significance of Study The significance of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on cocoa yields, export and other factors that have led to the decline in cocoa export in Nigeria. Recommend findings to policy makers or stakeholder on ways of increasing cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. 1.6. Research Objective 1.7. Broad Objective The broad objective is to determine link between climate change, cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. 1.8. Specific Objective The following are the specific objectives of this research; To determine the effect of climate variability or change on cocoa yields and export To investigate other causes of the decline of cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. 8
  • 10. 1.9. Limitations of Study The research methodology and findings were not without shortcomings, which includes lack of research supervisor and time constraint to source materials. Findings may deviate from through representation due to data sources. 9
  • 11. CHAPTER 2 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW Climate change, also known as global warming has become one of man’s major challenges with adverse effects like the disruption of seasonal cycles particularly the ecosystem, agriculture, water level reduction, the disappearance of lake and desert encroachment, climate change is believed to be the greatest challenges faced by man and his environment today. It’s impact are felt globally by both developed and developing countries, it’s impact is most felt by the less developed and developing countries because they lack the economic, socio and political infrastructure to respond adequately to the effects of climate change mostly on agricultural productivity. In Nigeria, this means that some stable ecosystem such as the Sahel Savanna may become vulnerable because warming will reinforce existing patterns of water scarcity and increasing the risk of drought in Nigeria and indeed most countries in West Africa. As well, the country’s aquatic ecosystem, wetlands and other habits will create overwhelming problems for an already impoverished populace, (Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change (BNRCC, 2008, www. Nigeriaclimatechange.org) The high rates in climate changes in the cultivation of cocoa has greater influence on the 3 phases of cocoa production ranging from seedling phase, establishment phase and processing phase. This is because weather and climate influence most of the processes involved in cocoa production, for instance: solar radiation produces energy for warming the soil, plants, air and metabolic processes; rainfall and it characteristics in terms of amount, intensity, reliability and distribution influence crop growth and soil erosion. Atmospheric evaporability determines the performance and survival of crops. Planting date of cocoa seeds is determined by start of the rains. Irrigation aid cocoa productivity leading to increase in economic value. Sun drying reduces the water content of cocoa seed and makes its processing easier, against this backdrop, we can 10
  • 12. inferred that all cocoa production processes are directly or indirectly related to weather and climate change (www.agritade.cta.int)3 According to the publication of (African Technology Policy Studies Network Working paper series | No. 62, 2011) their study revealed that there was an increase in the incidence of climate change in the area as typified by low rainfall, higher temperature and desertification. The study further revealed that the perceived causes of climate change in the northern part of Nigeria included: overgrazing of farmland by livestock, deforestation and bush burning. The findings also noted that key problems associated with the changing climate were: increase in cost of farm inputs, poor crop yields, and increase in pest and disease incidence and loss of forest resources. Also, a research work carried out on the effect of climate change on cocoa yield in Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) farm, Ibadan. It was observed that for sustainable cocoa production, weather which is an uncontrollable variable is an important factor whose effect on cocoa is difficult to quantify in field environment. The effect of two major weather parameters rainfall and temperature were evaluated on cocoa yield over a ten years period. The study revealed that there is a weak inverse correlation in rainfall (0.0073), i.e. increase in rainfall resulting to a decrease in yield. While positive weak correlation (0.2196) was established for temperature on yield. This study also revealed a strong positive correlation between yields/pods and temperature. The study showed that a combination of optimal temperature (290c) and minimal rainfall (900 to 1000mm) will give a better yield and improve production and the economy of both Cocoa farmers and Nigeria at large (Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa (Volume 12, No.1, 2010). (Kwapong et al. 2005), also posit that the major direct impact of climate change on agricultural production in Nigeria will be through changes in temperature, rain, growing season, and timing of extreme or critical threshold events. Suitable weather condition is essential at every stage of cocoa production. Sensitivity of cocoa production to hours of sunshine, rainfall, soil conditions 3 Climate change is certainly one of the greatest challenges of humanity with prediction of its impacts varying from region to region. Africa; where Nigeria is located is thought to be most vulnerable region to the impacts of climate change (Challinor et al. 2007) 11
  • 13. and temperature therefore makes it vulnerable to climate change. Changing climate can also alter development of pests and diseases and change the host’s resistance. Unfavorable climate promotes pest infestation and disease outbreak on cocoa farms. Newly planted cocoa plants and some cocoa trees dry up because of drought. (Ajewole et al. 2010) studied the effect of climate change on cocoa yield with the use of correlation and regression analysis and concluded that optimal temperature and minimal rainfall will give better yield of cocoa in Nigeria. However, the production of cocoa in Nigeria suffered a reduction in the 1980s and 1990s prior the return to democratic rule in 1999 due to a number of factors according to (Oluyole et al. 2009). (Villlalobos 1989) attributed low yields or productivities to factors such as: inconsistent production pattern, disease incident, pest attack and use of simple farm tools, while Oduwole (200) in his study identified aging cocoa farms as one of the factors responsible for the decline in cocoa production in south western Nigeria, he observed that many cocoa farms were over 40 years old and such farms constitutes as much as 60 percent of the cocoa farms in Nigeria4. Other reasons attributed to the decline in cocoa production and the inability of cocoa industry to increase output include small farm holdings, transportation mode, and unavailability of human labor, low capital and variability in climatic factors. These findings serve as a basis for the researcher to carry out this research. This will reveal if there is positive or negative correlation between climate change, cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. 4 Nigeria has lost her leading role in cocoa export due to downward trend in cocoa production. Adegeye (1996) 12
  • 14. CHAPTER 3 3.0. METHODOLOGY The analysis of data was conducted by quantitative method of analysis with the aid of graphical representation of data as analytical tool, to compare the trends in the time series data and their variation on cocoa yields and export. 3.1. Source of Data Data for this study was obtained from secondary sources with the use of WIT/World Bank, FOASTAT, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bullion, Nigeria bureau of statistics website. Data retrieved was analyzed and presented in the form of table’s and graphs for data presentation and analysis. 13
  • 15. CHAPTER 4 4.1. DATA PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULT 4.2. Data Presentation Table 1: Summary statistics of rainfall, temperature and cocoa yield Period Rainfall Temperature (° c) Cocoa Yields(Tones) (mm) 1961-1970 1,368.00 11.7 230,750.00 1971-1980 1,408.10 14.02 198,370.00 1981-1990 1,246.00 14.19 184,180.00 1991-2000 1,182.70 14.31 296,600.00 2001-2010 1,193.80 14.55 388,845.30 Source of Data: Nigeria bureau of statistics 14
  • 16. Graph 1: Trend in Cocoa yields (Tones) Cocoa Yields(Tonnes) 450,000.00 400,000.00 350,000.00 300,000.00 250,000.00 Cocoa Yields(Tonnes) 200,000.00 150,000.00 100,000.00 50,000.00 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Source of Data: FAO. 2012. AQUASTAT database. Table 2: Average Precipitation, Volume and National Rainfall Period/Year 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 Average precipitation 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 Average precipitation 1062 1062 1062 1062 1062 1062 1351 1365 1295 in depth (mm/yr) in volume (10^9 m3/yr) National Rainfall 1272 Index (NRI) (mm/yr) Source of Data: www.fao.stat.org 15
  • 17. Graph 2: Trends in Average Precipitation, Volume and National Rainfall 1400 1200 1000 800 Average precipitation in depth (mm/yr) 600 Average precipitation in volume (10^9 m3/yr) 400 National Rainfall Index (NRI) (mm/yr) 200 0 Table 3: Value of Nigeria Cocoa Exported to the World COUNTRY ITEM YEAR VALUE(Current Million US$) Nigeria Cocoa 2000 279 Nigeria Cocoa 2001 279 Nigeria Cocoa 2002 389 Nigeria Cocoa 2003 458 Nigeria Cocoa 2004 579 Nigeria Cocoa 2005 757 Nigeria Cocoa 2006 924 Nigeria Cocoa 2007 767 Nigeria Cocoa 2008 947 Nigeria Cocoa 2009 742 Nigeria Cocoa 2010 837 Source of Data: www.fao.stat.org 16
  • 18. Graph 3: graphical representation of Nigeria Cocoa Exported to World Nigeria Cocoa Exports (mUSD$) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 Nigeria Cocoa Exports USD$ 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4.3 Interpretation of Results Table1, above revealed that from 1961 - 1970, the average amount of rainfall was 1,368.00 (mm) and the average temperature was 11.7(°c) while cocoa yield was 230,750 tones. Between 1971 – 1980 with an increase in the average rainfall from 1,368(mm) to 1,408 (mm) and temperature from 11.7 to 14.02(°c) respectively, there was a decline in cocoa yields from 230,750 tones to 198,370 tones. This era is known as oil boom in the history of Nigeria, characterize by the rural urban migration of farmers to the cities in search of white collar jobs in the oil industries, this may be attributed to this decline in cocoa production. 17
  • 19. However, the decline may also be attributed to other factors such the use of traditional farming methods, the use of obsolete equipment, poor preservative methods, pest, diseases and bush burning etc. According to the findings of US Department of Agriculture attaches in Lagos, it was observed that, the increasing age profile of cocoa farmers is seen as likely to lead to underinvestment in the renewal of cocoa tree plantations. Presently the majority of Nigerian cocoa farmers are over 60 years of age, compared to only 3.1% of the general population. This is seen as a factor that will hold back government efforts to promote a tripling of cocoa production5. 1981 – 1990 witnessed a fall in the average amount of rainfall from 198, 370 (mm) to 1,246.00 (mm) while the average temperature increased from 14.0 to 14.19(°c), the resultant effect was a fall in cocoa yields from 198,370 to 184,180.00. The periods, 1991 – 2000, experienced a reduction in the average rainfall from 1,246.00(mm) to 1,182.70(mm), and a minimal increase in the average temperature from 14.19(°c) to 14.31(°c),which resulted to an increase in cocoa yields from 184,180.00 to 296,600.00(tones), this scenario however, confirmed that cocoa yields and export in Nigeria is determine by other factors , because a decrease in the level of rainfall and an increase in temperature is presume to result to a decline in cocoa production, but the reserve was the case. It was also, observed that from 2001 – 2010, there was an increase in all three variables, rainfall increased from 1,182.70(mm) to 1,193.80(mm), temperature increased from 14.55(°c) to 14.55(°c) and cocoa yields rise from 296,600.00(mm) to 388,845.30(mm); the highest increase for the period under reviewed. Table 2 above revealed that the average precipitation in depth and volume remained 1150 (mm/yr) and 1062(10^9 m3/yr) respectively from 1983 to 2011, while there was a decrease in the national rainfall index in 1997 1365 to 1295 (NRI) (mm/yr) in 2002. It was also observed that there was a gradual decline in cocoa yields from 1961 to 1990, while there has been steady increase in cocoa yields since 1991 to 2000 as revealed by graph 1. 5 it is estimated that only about 20% of Nigeria's 3.0m hectares of land suitable for cocoa production is currently in use," and land that is being farmed is often being done so inefficiently.(www.agrimoney.com). 18
  • 20. Table 3, further shows that there was a significant growth in Nigeria’s cocoa export, from the year 2000 until 2006 there was a rapid growth with a fall in cocoa export from $947m to $767m in 2007. 2008 witnessed the highest growth of about $947m, while there was a negligible fall in 2009 of about $5m and an increase in 2010 to $837. The growth in cocoa yields leading to export may be attributed to all the measures or reform program put in place by Nigeria government since 1999 to revamp the sector with the establishment of National Cocoa Development Committee (NCDC) such as the Cocoa Association of Nigeria (CAN), the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria (CFAN), the Cocoa Growers Association of Nigeria (COGAN), the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN). Also, this could be attributed to improved seedlings, irrigated farms, and increased knowledge in cocoa farming, adaptation and mitigation strategies. This research revealed that there was no direct relationship between climate change, cocoa yields and export in Nigeria, however it should be noted that unfavorable climatic conditions or climate change will impact negatively on cocoa yields resulting to decrease in export; if there is drought, excessive temperature, low rainfall and precipitation couple with reduction in farm land due to desertification, there will be a decline in productivity resulting to a decline in export as well. For this situation to be remedy, Nigeria’s adaption and mitigation strategies and policies must be improved upon and implemented. 4.4. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies of Climate Change in Nigeria The climate change assessment carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) revealed that the Continued Green House Gas (GHG) emissions into the ecosystem will impact negatively on global climate system in 21st century than what was observed during the 20th century (Pachauri 2009). These findings by IPCC corroborate trends in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. It was estimated that over 70 million cubic meters of gas is been flared daily, estimated to be about 70 million tons of carbon dioxide, as a result of oil and gas exploration and production activities (UNDP/World Bank 2004). About 75 percent of total gas production in Nigeria is flared. According to world Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) 2003, it was estimated that Nigeria accounts for about 17.2% of global gas flaring. Gas flaring in Nigeria contributes a considerable percentage to the world's total emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and is probably the greatest contributor of GHGs in 19
  • 21. the Niger Delta region. The low-lying Niger Delta is particularly vulnerable to the potential effects of sea levels rising (Ugochukwu 2008; Ugochukwu et al. 2008). Studies show that without adaptation, climate change is generally detrimental to the agriculture sector; but with adaptation, vulnerability can largely be reduced (Easterling et al. 1993; Mendelsohn 1998).The degree to which an agricultural system is affected by climate change depends on its adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (IPCC 2001). According to National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN 2011) for an effective national response to the significant and multifacetted impacts of climate change, Nigeria needs an aggressive and widely supported adaptation strategy and action plan. This strategy and plan must be integrated, comprehensive in scope, and inclusive of all stakeholders. Nigeria is also developing a strategic Framework for Voluntary National Approach Mitigation Action (NAMA), as a step towards meeting national obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The NAMA strategic framework will allow Nigeria to develop long-term measures and program supporting a low carbon, climate-resilient. This plan must be implemented and backed by action by all stakeholders. 20
  • 22. CHAPTER 5 5.0. SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION 5.1. Summary The broad objective of this study was to determine the link between climate change on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. The study highlights some relevant factors such as average rainfall, temperature and precipitation that increase cocoa yields resulting to increase in export. Also factors leading to the decline in cocoa yields and export other than climate change were observed such as farming methods. The research paper revealed that there was no relationship between climate change and cocoa yields and export for the period under review, this may have be attributed to reform program put in place by Nigeria government since 1999 to revamp the sector with the establishment of National Cocoa Development Committee (NCDC) . It was however, noted that unfavorable climatic conditions or climate change will impact negatively on cocoa yields resulting to decrease in export; if there is drought, excessive temperature, low rainfall and precipitation couple with reduction in farm land due to desertification, there will be a decline in productivity resulting to a decline in export as well. For this situation to be averted, Nigeria’s adaption and mitigation strategies and policies must be improved upon and implemented. Reviewed literatures showed that climate change has impacted negatively on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study revealed that the fluctuation in this trend basically cannot be attributed to climate change only. Method of analysis used in the study was quantitative, data source was secondary. The study revealed that if climatic conditions are favorable and other factors contributing to yields and development of cocoa are put in place, there will be an increase in yield and cocoa export. Therefore, it was inferred that climate change has minimal effects on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. 5.2 Suggestion Based on the findings of this study, the following are hereby suggested to boost or improve cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. A holistic approach should be adopted by Government and all stakeholder by investing in this sector through Research and Development, make use of the unutilized lands in Nigeria lying fallow for cocoa production in the cocoa region or belt. 21
  • 23. Cocoa farmers should be educated on modern trends in the cultivation of this crop and value addition to their raw cocoa for more market access and competition. Measures should be put in place to address the issues of the effects climate variability on cocoa yield and the decline in its export. 5.3. Conclusion Conclusively, it is hereby inferred that climate change has little or minimal effects on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria, as the trend in the time series data revealed that there was a minimal effect of precipitation, temperature and rainfall on cocoa yields and export in Nigeria. 22
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  • 25. National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN 2011) Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team (NEST 2004) 24