MICRO-TARGETING AND INTERNET TESTED MAIL1

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TARGETING BEGINS WITH DATA3Voter File- the universal base fileIndividual Demographics – Age, Race, Gender, Marital Status, IncomeGeography- Census DataPrecinct results (Electoral Zones)Vote History- Vote in primaries, generalsVoter ID/Party ID Enhancements – Ethnic surnames, Phone matchLifestyle (Psychographics)- Hunter/fisher, veteran, churchgoer, union member, consumer buying power

GEOGRAPHIC TARGETING HELPSbut has its limits4Birds of a Feather Flock TogetherCensus DataPrecinct results (Electoral Zones)Neighborhood culture

Micro-Targeting allows you to target the individual or household, not just the neighborhood5

The Difference Between Polling and Micro-Targeting6Micro-Targeting Huge sample – 8,000-12,000 interviews Short interview - 8 questions maximum Multi-dimension cross- tabulations. 300 variables x 300 variablesPollingSmall sample– 800-1200 interviewsLong interview – 70-100 questionsover 20-25 minutesLimitedtwo- dimensionalcross-tabulations: Women over age 50College Educated Men Unmarried women

Huge sample – 8,000-12,000 interviews

Short interview - 8 questions maximum

Multi-dimension cross- tabulations. 300 variables x 300 variables

Micro-Targeting combines issue questions with voter file data7Voter File- the universal base fileIndividual Demographics – Age, Race, Gender, Marital Status, IncomeGeography- Census DataPrecinct results (Electoral Zones)Vote History- Vote in primaries, generalsVoter ID/Party ID Enhancements – Ethnic surnames, Phone matchLifestyle (Psychographics)- Hunter/fisher, veteran, churchgoer, union memberWhat party do you most indentify with?Agree/disagree with following statement: Health Care system is broken and needs major reformIf the election were held today would you vote for McCain or Obama?How strongly do you support that candidate?How often do you attend church or religious services?Are you or other members of your family active duty military, veteran or member of the National Guard or Reserves

MODELING INDENTIFIES YOUR INDIVIDUAL TARGETS8Highest Scores, Most Pro-Obama10987654321Scores every voter on the file from 0-100 – divides into 10 equal buckets ranging from most Pro-McCain to most Pro-ObamaModels clearly identify persuasion and GOTV targetsLowest Scores Pro-McCain

Multi-Dimensional Modeling Goes Beyond GEOGRAPHY and CLASSThe models generate scores that can be used to Identify Persuadable votersIdentify Issue votersIdentify GOTV votersThis approach has successfully helped Republicans find their niche voters and now Democrats are catching up, and are using modeling to find donors as well as voters. 9

TWO HOUSES, SAME DEMOGRAPHICSVotes DemocraticUnion MemberVotes Republican Weekly ChurchgoerHunting License10Same Age, Income, Marital Status, Race, # of Children What makes them different?LEFTRIGHT

WHAT IF YOU ONLY HAVE LIMITED LIFESTYLE INFO?Build a statistical model that compares your list of supporters with the entire voter universe.Create an algorithm that scores every voters 1-100 with their likelihood to look and act like your supporters.11

TWO HOUSES, SAME DEMOGRAPHICSLeans DemocraticModel Score = 56Votes Republican Hunting LicenseModel Score = 3212Same Age, Income, Marital Status, Race, # of Children What makes them different?LEFTRIGHT

Leans Democratic

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InB E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

USING THE INTERNET TO TEST MAIL18

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pgiangreco@strategygroup.com28