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  • 1. Where eLearning is Coming From Preview: eLearning Guild Research New Directions Report Ellen Wagner and Beth Davis Sage Road Solutions, LLC
  • 2. Agenda • Review emerging technologies likely to impact learning, education and training in the next 6 months – 3 yrs • Indentify influences from outside the LET world that are accelerating change • Review necessary conditions for sustaining innovation and improving business results March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 2
  • 3. Multiple Horizons Scanned eLearning • Emerging • Research Innovations • Practices • “Traditional” • Enterprise Guidelines elearning Platforms • Emergent eLearning Technology Learning, Education, Training March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 3
  • 4. Variables Moving the Flags on the Horizon Vertical Markets • Economic, Financial • Stimulus Conditions • Education • Education Trends • Business Process • Labor/Commerce • Government Operations • DOD, DHS (DoD) Trends • Commercial (e.g. FSI, Manufacturing) Commercial Public Issues Policy March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 4
  • 5. Resources Used in Scan eLearning Learning Business & IT Education/ Industry Innovation Research Market Research Research Research Wainhouse Gartner eLearning Guild EDUCAUSE Research Research Campus Forrester Bersin & Computing New Media Research Associates Project Consortium Brandon Hall Gartner IDC Sloan Research Research Consortium Jupiter AACE Research Personal Research Dashboard March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 5
  • 6. ELEARNING CURRENT STATUS AND ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 6
  • 7. Learning and Technology: A Never-Ending Adoption Curve Web 1.0 – Web 2.0 - Published Participative Digitized Web 3.0 – 3D Media Learning and Web 4.0 – Representative Performance “Everyware” Media Improvement March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 7
  • 8. Not all online experiences are created equally Hybrid/Blended http://www.sloan-c.org/publications/freedownloads.asp March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 8
  • 9. Wainhouse Research Distance Education and eLearning Landscape, Nov 2007 March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 9
  • 10. Wainhouse Research Predictions • eLearning growth is taking place in three separate segments, in relative order: – Learning Management, Platforms, Software and Tools – Video for Learning – Interaction • Overall market for LMS platforms and services will grow from $802.8 million in 2007 to $1.5 billion in 2011, at a (CAGR) of 13%. The bulk of this growth will occur in higher education. • The corporate segment of the industry will enter a slow growth period and undergo further consolidation. • There is a greater than 50% probability that many LMS platforms will include real- time audio, web conferencing, Instant Messaging, Presence, and videoconferencing capabilities as a matter of course within two years, and a 95% probability these capabilities are contained within five years. • Hosted and managed services will become the preferred deployment mode for the traditionally CPE-based LMS industry. March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 10
  • 11. Traditional and Emerging eLearning Markets High Rapid eLearning, Saas LMS, LCMS, games and Growth (100%+) mobile learning are the fastest growing segments Mobile 75% Games 55% LMS/LCMS LMS Sims LCMS (Saas) (traditional) 12% 25% 20% (12%) Rapid Virtual Web 15% Classroom Tools 9% 4% Low Growth Mature Emerging Adapted from Bersin& Associates, 2007 March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 11
  • 12. Horizons Report, 2008 Time-to- Time-to- Time-to- Adoption: One Adoption: Two Adoption: Four Year or Less to Three Years to Five Years • Grassroots Video • Mobile Broadband • Collective Intelligence • Collaboration Webs • Data Mashups • Social Operating Systems March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 12
  • 13. Horizon Report 2008: Trends Affecting Learning Tech Adoption • The growing use of Web 2.0 and social networking—combined with collective intelligence and mass amateurization*—is gradually but inexorably changing the practice of scholarship. • Access to—and portability of—content is increasing as smaller, more powerful devices are introduced. • Electronic book readers like the Amazon Kindle and web enabled devices like the Apple iPhone and the LG Electronics Voyager make it possible to carry vast amounts of information in a small package. • The gap between students’ perception of technology and that of faculty continues to widen. * The rise of the “Prosumer” and User Generated Content Phemonemnon March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 13
  • 14. Horizons Report, 2009 Time-to- Time-to- Time-to- Adoption: One Adoption: Two Adoption: Four Year or Less to Three Years to Five Years • Mobiles • Geo Everything • Semantic Aware Apps • Cloud Computing • The personal Web • Smart Objects March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 14
  • 15. Horizon Report 2009: • Mobiles: Video, apps, true personal, portable computing • Cloud computing: large distributed data farms improve storage and processing power for all • Geo-everything: Location-based tagging • Semantic Web: Context-aware tagging • Smart Objects: objects that recognize their physical location or can connect with other objects or information. March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 15
  • 16. eLearning Guild Trends, 2008 “Working in the Consumer tech / Business conditions Cloud” UGC for learning Ongoing Expanded access to Video redefinition of wireless broadband elearning Continued blurring Devices with built- Enterprise social of elearning tool in 3G and WiFi networking categories March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 16
  • 17. eLearning Guild Member Technology Use March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 17
  • 18. Stages of eLearning 2.0 Use March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 18
  • 19. Top IT Issues for 2008-9 per EDUCAUSE 1. Security 2. Administrative/ERP/Information Systems 3. Funding IT 4. Infrastructure 5. Identity/Access Management 6. Disaster Recovery / Business Continuity 7. Governance, Organization, and Leadership 8. Change Management 9. E-Learning / Distributed Teaching and Learning 10. Staffing / HR Management / Training http://connect.educause.edu/Library/EDUCAUSE+Review/TopTenITIssues2008/46605 March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 19
  • 20. WHERE ELEARNING IS COMING FROM March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 20
  • 21. Emerging IT Industry Trends That Will Affect elearning Practice Web 2.0 Working in Mobility the Cloud The RIAs Metaverse March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 21
  • 22. Web 2.0 - Social Power • Social Networks such as Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn strengthen interpersonal connections • Viral microblog sites such as Twitter and Tweet Deck play host for those who appreciate quot;snackablequot; content. • Social tools like Ning and IntroNetworks make connections actionable • User Generated Content, RSS feeds, blogs, wikis empower the “pro-sumer” • Social book-marking and smart-searching create trust • Podcasting, Life-casting, live-blogging, video and photo- sharing empower creative expression March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 22
  • 23. elearning Guild’s 9 Trends for 2008 March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 23
  • 24. Mobility and the Mobile Web • More wireless devices, more wireless broadband services. Apps make the device. Open access to run any application on any device anywhere in the world. • The next-gen computer and ultimate social media device: The 3G Smartphone • Sensors and Location Based Services • Web Video, Games, Collaboration • Content or Commerce? The Transactional Side of Mobile • Beyond 3G: LTE and 4G Services • The Internet of Things • The Mobile Web is all about Apps March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 24
  • 25. March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 25
  • 26. What do 1.2 billion mobile youth want? March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 26
  • 27. RIAs • Rich Internet Applications (RIAs) enable the creation of user experience (UX) that is more responsive and engaging than those found in traditional web applications • RIA spans a range of technology alternatives: Flex, Ajax, Silverlight • Based on the premise that a rich productive user experience can be achieved using only standards based technologies built into a modern browser March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 27
  • 28. Example: Google Earth
  • 29. Software-as-a-Service March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 29
  • 30. When Mobile Meets RIAs: Google Latitude March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 30
  • 31. “Working in the Cloud” Cloud computing is a style of computing whose massively scalable and elastic IT capabilities are provided as a service to external customers using internet technologies. – Platform Makeover – Browsers, Virtualization, Software as a Service (SaaS) – Smart(er) World – Pattern recognizing, real-world data sampling computers will be smarter than we are by 2029 (Kurzweil) March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 31
  • 32. Cloud Computing VIRTUAL INFRASTRUCTURE Amazon Google Other private “clouds” WEB DEVELOPMENT PLATFORM Google Apps Flex Ajax SIlverlight ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS iPhone SDK AIR March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 32
  • 33. Anticipated IT App Spending 2009 http://www.internetevolution.com/author.asp?doc_id=173080&f_src=itgazette March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 33
  • 34. WHEN THE HYPE CYCLE MEETS THE INNOVATION ADOPTION CURVE March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 34
  • 35. Leveraging Disruptive Innovations Disruptive innovations are transformative tools, devices, practice s Generally slow to be adopted because they are initially less reliable than market leading tools and practices Result in dramatic Clayton M. Christiansen, The Innovator’s Dilemma (1997) Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press change when broad adoption finally does March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 35
  • 36. Gartner Hype Cycle March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 36
  • 37. Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation Adoption Curve March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 37
  • 38. When Hype Cycle Meets the Innovation Adoption Curve Digital Skills Communication &Collaboration E-Learning and Virtual Schools Interest/ Hype Early Adopters Mainstream adoption Number of users March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 38
  • 39. THANKS FOR YOUR INTEREST ellen@sageroadsolutions.com +1.707.933.8471 www.sageroadsolutions.com Skype: ellenwagner1 www.twitter.com/edwsonoma www.elearningroadtrip.typepad.com March 2009 Sage Road Solutions, LLC 39