Life in 2020

 by Eduardo Griffa
    Head of Ericsson Consulting
    Market Unit South America




http://www.linkedin.com...
What will create value for people in 2020?




© Ericsson AB 2008   Commercial in confidence 2   2020 Overview Presentation
Thinking through stories, and talking in depth
                     about their implications, brings each person’s
       ...
Communicating Worlds 2020
   Ericsson scenario project set-up

                               Scanning                    ...
12 years’ perspective

        1997: Kyoto      9/11 2001                    2007: IPCC, Al Gore
      protocol adopted WT...
The world in 2020 – likely truths
                       Networking, personalization and mobility will radically transform...
Communicating Worlds 2020


                      User




                                                               ...
Critical uncertainties

                                                                                                  ...
2020 scenarios at a glance

                                                                                              ...
Brands and Pipes
    Scenario I




                                                                                      ...
User Choice
    Scenario II

                                                                                      I choos...
I am choosing the
                                                         environmentally friendly

    Green Shift      ...
I don’t want to choose from
    All Inclusive                                   different providers and
                  ...
Enter Life in 2020

                     http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson/2020-081217/




© Ericsson AB 2008           Co...
2020 scenarios at a glance
                     Large and innovative “branded” providers offer lifestyle
                 ...
The future is uncertain... but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity.
          Ilya Prigogine (1917 -...
© Ericsson AB 2008   Commercial in confidence 17   2020 Overview Presentation
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Valor Para Los Usuarios En 2020 B

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Valor Para Los Usuarios En 2020 B

  1. 1. Life in 2020 by Eduardo Griffa Head of Ericsson Consulting Market Unit South America http://www.linkedin.com/in/eduardogriffa
  2. 2. What will create value for people in 2020? © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 2 2020 Overview Presentation
  3. 3. Thinking through stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicle I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world, and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness. [Peter Schwartz, “The Art of the Long View”, 1991] © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 3 2020 Overview Presentation
  4. 4. Communicating Worlds 2020 Ericsson scenario project set-up Scanning Scenarios Likely truths Critical uncertainities Disruptive events © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 4 2020 Overview Presentation
  5. 5. 12 years’ perspective 1997: Kyoto 9/11 2001 2007: IPCC, Al Gore protocol adopted WTC twin towers Nobel Peace Prize 1996 2008 2020 1996: 136.2 M 2004: 1 B 3.7 Billion mobile phone GSM users Mobile users globally 2001: subscriptions Wikipedia 1998: First launched digital terrestrial TV launched in UK 2006: The NL is first country to 1998: Google switch to Digital Over-the-Air founded (terrestrial) broadcasting © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 5 2020 Overview Presentation
  6. 6. The world in 2020 – likely truths Networking, personalization and mobility will radically transform user patterns patterns User ICT solutions will be increasingly critical for enterprises to secure sustainable competitiveness One billion new middle-class consumers will enter the global marketplace, mainly in Asia Operator consolidation, cross-industry collaboration and low-cost dynamics innovation will redefine the industry Industry Most user services will be delivered independently of the network provider Everything that benefits from a wireless network connection will have one China and India will emerge as economic powers with fundamental Business global impact context Sustainability and scarcity of resources will shape political agendas and ignite conflicts Societal vulnerabilities will increase dependency on safety and security solutions © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 6 2020 Overview Presentation
  7. 7. Communicating Worlds 2020 User es? user patterns De ser d wit ity Reg ainabi sus v n? v ic h ti o bin ecti e ulat ev olu t Industry oev User preferences? com Conn vic rk luti e ion y? o on dynamics e tw lit N ? for Business context Likely Truths ⇒ Critical Uncertainties ⇒ Scenarios © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 7 2020 Overview Presentation
  8. 8. Critical uncertainties Users want Users want choice User preferences? convenience Network Network evolution? Network dependent independent services services All-purpose devices Device evolution? Specialized devices Separated network Connectivity Vertically integrated and user service combined with user network/service providers services? providers Profound regulatory Regulation for No profound action sustainability? regulatory action Uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity. (Ilya Prigogine) © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 8 2020 Overview Presentation
  9. 9. 2020 scenarios at a glance Users want Users want choice User preferences? convenience Network Network evolution? Network dependent independent services services All-purpose devices Device evolution? Specialized devices Separated network Connectivity Vertically integrated and user service combined with user network/service providers services? providers Profound regulatory Regulation for No profound action sustainability? regulatory action © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 9 2020 Overview Presentation
  10. 10. Brands and Pipes Scenario I I want the best quality and I have Few large operators cost- chosen the brands effectively providing MyStore that suit me and my MyMusic lifestyle. network connectivity Connectivity is no MyApps longer an issue. Large and innovative “branded” providers offer lifestyle services independently of network providers © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 10 2020 Overview Presentation
  11. 11. User Choice Scenario II I choose what’s best for me, and I’m not afraid to change service provider! Small, innovative players offering abundance of services Many small & innovative players offer an abundance of services using an intelligent “network operating system” © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 11 2020 Overview Presentation
  12. 12. I am choosing the environmentally friendly Green Shift alternatives, and I am highly rewarded for my choices. Scenario III Our lives are different now, and more restricted, but we can look forward to a brighter tomorrow. E-government M2M Government regulation for sustainable evolution •Measurements E-health Telepresence •Incentives •Taxation •Resource pooling E-work Logistics Profound political actions on sustainability change user patterns and demands © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 12 2020 Overview Presentation
  13. 13. I don’t want to choose from All Inclusive different providers and services, when everything can be taken care of by my all- Scenario IV inclusive provider. Life is simple and convenient. Communications Devices Connectivity Content Enterprises adapt all-inclusive offerings for basic communicatiosn need and certain business-critical applications Rely on independent system integrators and dedicated online players for complementing applications Large and vertically integrated players emerge and provide everything from connectivity to content © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 13 2020 Overview Presentation
  14. 14. Enter Life in 2020 http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson/2020-081217/ © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 14 2020 Overview Presentation
  15. 15. 2020 scenarios at a glance Large and innovative “branded” providers offer lifestyle services independently of network providers. Many small & innovative players offer an abundance of services using an intelligent “network operating system”. Profound political actions on sustainability will change user patterns and demands of people and enterprises. Large and vertically integrated players will emerge and provide everything from connectivity to content. © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 15 2020 Overview Presentation
  16. 16. The future is uncertain... but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity. Ilya Prigogine (1917 - ) The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be. Paul Valery (1871 - 1945) Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962) Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present. Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121 AD - 180 AD), Meditations, 200 A.D. Change is the process by which the future invades our lives. Alvin Toffler It's the place where my prediction from the sixties finally came true: "In the future everyone will be famous for fifteen minutes." I'm bored with that line. I never use it anymore. My new line is, "In fifteen minutes everybody will be famous." Andy Warhol (1928 - 1987), Andy Warhol's Exposures (1979) "Studio 54“ http://www.quotationspage.com Future of terminals ?, please see Pattie Maes demos the Sixth Sense http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 16 2020 Overview Presentation
  17. 17. © Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 17 2020 Overview Presentation

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