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  • 1. Bucharest Dialogues Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective November 20 – November 21, 2010 Bucharest, Romania November 20 09:00 – 09:15 A welcome speech by Adrian Curaj Introducing the programme of the conference-workshop and explaining the logic and role of the event by putting it in the larger context of the future-oriented “Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education” project by Radu Gheorghiu, Dan Grosu and Paul Dragos Aligica, the moderator of the event. 09:15 – 10:30 The Black Swan and Beyond: the limits of predicting human action in an ever-increasing web of complexity Mark Blyth, Professor, Brown University and Faculty Fellow at the Watson Institute. 09:15 – 09:45 Mark Blyth presentation 09:45 – 10:30 Questions, answers, comments 10:30 – 10:45 Break 10:45 – 12:00 Global Warming: scientific forecasting or forecasting by scientists? Scott Armstrong, Professor, Wharton School of Business – University of Pennsylvania. 10:45 – 11:15 Scott Armstrong presentation 11:15 – 12:00 Questions, answers, comments 12:00 – 13:00 Lunch Break 13:00 – 14:15 Forecasts and Judgement: What experts can and can’t do Robert Evans, Lecturer, Cardiff School of Social Sciences 13:00 – 13:30 Robert Evans presentation 13:30 – 14:15 Questions, answers, comments 14:15 – 14:30 Break 14:30 – 15:45 Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: politics, business, military... Kesten C. Green, Senior Lecturer, International Graduate School of Business, University of South Australia.
  • 2. 14:30 – 15:00 Kesten C. Green presentation 15:00 – 15:45 Questions, answers, comments 15:45 – 16:00 Break 16:00 – 17:15 Validating the quality of scenario methods Peter Bishop, Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight and Coordinator of the graduate program in Futures Studies at the University of Houston. 16:00 – 16:30 Peter Bishop presentation 16:30 – 17:15 Questions, answers, comments November 21 9:00 – 11:00 Electoral and Political Forecasting: Pollywote and Beyond Alfred G. Cuzán, Professor and Chairman, Department of Government, University of West Florida. The Fiscal Model and Case Study. The 2010 contest for the US congress: comparing experts with models Randall J. Jones, Jr., Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Oklahoma. The use of expert judgment in forecasting elections Andreas Graefe, Researcher at the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues 09:00 – 10:00 Presentations 10:00 – 10:45 Questions, answers, comments 11:00 – 11:15 Break 11:15 – 12:30 Final colloquium: Comments, conclusions, further steps 12:30 Lunch and the Conclusion of the Event 13:30 Post-conference working group Debriefing, preparation of written materials, post-conference action planning. Participants: the MLW core team.