Leadership Texas May 2010 V2
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Leadership Texas May 2010 V2

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Leadership Texas May 2010 V2 Leadership Texas May 2010 V2 Presentation Transcript

  • Connecting the Dots
    between Demographics, Workforce and Immigration
    Eddie Aldrete
  • Fear and Loathing
  • Border Fencing
    298.5 Miles of Vehicle Fencing
    365.3 Miles of Pedestrian Fencing
    20.26 Miles of Levee Fencing
    684.06 Total Miles Complete
  • Secure Fence Act of 2006
  • Current Fertility Rates
  • Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)
    Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.
  • Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)
    US 61.7
    US 67.1
    Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.
  • Current Fertility Rates
  • % of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040*
    Sources: U.S. Census Counts, and State Data Center Projections, 0.5 Scenario
  • February 14, 2009
    ‘For the First Time, Hispanic Children are the Majority in Texas’ First Grade Classrooms’
    130,000 fewer white children than 10 years ago
    Hispanic children dominate 1st grade classes (50.2%)
    White children now fewer than 1/3 of 1st graders
    Current white population of 11.5 million is near its’ peak and will begin to shrink as boomers die off
    Result would be the same if all undocumented were removed and no future inward migration allowed
  • Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000
  • 14
  • Congressional Budget Office
    “Unless native fertility rates increase, it is likely that most of the growth in the U.S. labor force will come from immigration by the middle of the century.”
  • Industry Shortages
    MANUFACTURING
    RESTAURANT / FOOD SERVICE
    HEALTHCARE
  • 90% of manufacturers are experiencing a shortage of qualified, skilled production employees, including:
    • Machinists
    • Operators
    • Craft workers
    • Distributors
    • Technicians
    Manufacturing Shortages
    National Association of Manufacturers
  • Over the next decade:
    Restaurant job growth -- 14%
    Native-born US workforce -- 10%
    Growth of 16 to 24 year-olds -- 0.3%.
    Restaurant Shortages
    National Restaurant Association
    2009 Restaurant Industry Forecast
    December 19, 2009
  • ‘Doctors Without Borders’TexasTribune.org
    40% of 1,500 fast-tracked, newly licensed doctors over the last 3 years, were trained at international med schools.
  • Alfredo Quiñones(1987)
  • Dr. QBrain Surgeon & Associate Professor of Neurosurgery and OncologyJohns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD
  • Former AF Sec. Michael Wynne
    We have a “geriatric” fleet that has to be replaced or it will put the Air Force “out of business.”
  • January 21, 2008
    ‘U.S. aerospace industry facing labor shortage’
    40%eligible to retire by 2012
  • Boomer Retirements & Local Police
    More than 80% of nation’s 17,000 law enforcement agencies have vacancies that can’t be filled
    (Police Chief Magazine, October 2006, vol 73, no 10)
    Law Enforcement shortages leave states without troopers
    Texas Sunset Advisory Commission report cites “critical manpower shortage at Texas DPS.
    ‘FBI drug standard lowered for hiring’
    Current user vs. past drug use (USA Today 08/02/07)
    In order to meet recruiting goals, agencies are making exceptions for:
    Bad credit
    Poor performance on physical exams
    Drug history
    Prior gang activity
    Failed polygraph exams (Texas DPS)
  • GAO ReportOLDER WORKERS: Federal Agencies Face Challenges
  • Help Wanted: U.S. Border Patrol
    14,000 BP agents in 2007
    14,000 additional agents in appropriations bill
    7 times as many grads in BP Academy in a year is a recipe for corruption
  • Cocaine Cowboys
  • Police Officer Recruitment: A Public Sector Crisis
    Police Chief Magazine October 2006
  • Trooper Shortage Cuts Training Time
    “The Department of Public Safety has 400 vacancies and is offering experienced law officers a chance to become troopers in just two months.”
    Associated Press - 02/26/2010
  • Texas Hunting Industry
    In 2009, Texas lost approximately $346,000when boomers turned 65 and paid reduced license fees.
    State Targeting Girls to Boost Ranks of Hunters
    Dallas Morning News
    June 14, 2008
  • ‘Felons helped Army meet recruitment goal’
    San Antonio Express-News
    10/12/2007
    1,620 MORAL WAIVERS
    ISSUED IN 2007
  • February 14, 2009
    ‘U.S. Military Will Offer Path to Citizenship’
    Staff Sgt. Alejandro Campos, in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, became a citizen after joining the Army.
  • Most Common Questions
    Why do immigrants come?
    Do they compete with natives for American jobs?
    Do we really need immigrants with so many unemployed Americans?
  • Mexican Migration Follows Trends in U.S. Employment Rate
  • Apprehensions – A Function of Labor Demand(Detrended employment lagged 6 m)
    Thousands, SA
    Thousands, SA
    Employment
    Apprehensions
    Source: BLS, DHS
  • Real-time Migration, U.S. and Mexican Business Cycles
    Thousands, SA
    Migrant apprehensions
    Source: CBP, Department of Homeland Security
  • Homeward Bound
  • Increasingly Bimodal Education Distribution (Foreign-born Workers)
    Percent
    Source: Ottaviano & Peri, 2005
  • Harry S. Dent Economist and Demographer
  • U. S. Joint Forces Command
    “Russia
    needs to cope
    with a rate of
    population decline that literally
    has no historical
    precedent
    in the absence of pandemic.”
  • ‘A Holiday From Russia With Love’
  • Japan
  • U. S. Joint Forces Command
    “Japan’s population will fall from
    128 million
    to approximately
    117 million
    in the 2030’s…from the collapse of their birth rate.”
  • ‘Pickers Are Few, And Growers Blame Congress’
    New York Times
    10/22/2006
    ‘As Farmworkers Become Scarcer, Congress Dithers’
    Washington Post
    12/4/2007
  • ‘Short on Labor, Farmers in U.S. Shift to Mexico’
    12 U.S. Agribusinesses Have Moved to Mexico11,000 jobs outsourced
  • Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)
  • Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)
    Microsoft Multiplier Effect:
    4 : 1
    For every job Microsoft creates, four other related jobs are created in the Washington state economy.
    1,500 Microsoft jobs outsourced
    6,000 additional jobs outsourced?
  • $ 2.6 Million NASCAR Sponsorship
  • Mexico’s Birth Dearth
  • Blockade
    Hold-the-Line
    Gatekeeper
    Safeguard
    Rio Grande
    Triple Strike
    Return to Sender
    Jump Start
    Full Court Press
    Stonegarden
    Gunrunner
    Armas Cruzadas
    Southern Border Operations
    (Since 1993)
  • Texas Border Operations
    Operation Linebacker
    Operation Border Star
    Operation Wrangler
    Operation Texas Border Watch
    The Daily Show on webcams
  • Between 1986 and 2002
    Increased Border Patrol’s budget by a factor of ten.
    Tripled the number of Border Patrol agents
    Spent eight times as many hours patrolling the border
  • The Results
    Undocumented population doubled
    Death rate for border crossings tripled
    Probability of apprehension dropped significantly
    Per-apprehension cost has risen 476%
    Circularity has stopped
  • Ronald Reagan -- The Voice of Reason
  • Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas
  • Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas
  • View from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico
  • Lines & Delays = Economic Harm
    Delays impact “Just-in-Time” facilities such as
    Toyota Assembly Plant in San Antonio
  • Trends in International TravelU.S. welcomed 2 million fewer overseas visitors in 2007 than 2000
    www.poweroftravel.org
    Travel Industry Association of America
  • Trends in International Travel
    Travel around world + 28% compared to travel to USA - 8%
    www.poweroftravel.org
    Travel Industry Association of America
  • Trends in International Travel45 MillionFewer Visitors Between 2000 and 2007
    www.poweroftravel.org
    Travel Industry Association & US Commerce Dept
  • ‘Most Popular Soccer Team in the U.S.: Mexico?’
    63,227 Charlotte, NC
    75,000 Meadowlands, NJ
    90,000 Pasadena, CA
  • Carrizo Cane Along Rio Grande River
  • April 6, 2007
    ‘Border officials fight cover-providing weeds’
    “Carrizo cane, the invasive, non-native plant grows
    stalks up to
    18 feet tall
    and can get
    so dense it makes roads impassable.”
  • Can You Spot the Border Patrol?
  • Carrizo Cane (before)
  • Carrizo Cane (after)
  • Essential to our Economy
  • Solutions
    An immigration system that works
    Focus on human mobility
    Balance security with facilitation
    Smart borders
    Floating visa caps
    Implement US Chamber’s Infrastructure Initiative for roadways and railways
    Restore America’s image around the world