Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Connecting the Dots<br />between Demographics, Workforce and Immigration<br />Eddie Aldrete<br />
Fear and Loathing<br />
Border Fencing<br />298.5 Miles of Vehicle Fencing<br />365.3 Miles of Pedestrian Fencing<br />20.26 Miles of Levee Fencin...
Secure Fence Act of 2006<br />
Current Fertility Rates<br />
Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)<br />Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the Unit...
Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)<br />US 61.7<br />US 67.1<br />Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and ...
Current Fertility Rates<br />
% of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040*<br />Sources: U.S. Census Coun...
February 14, 2009<br />‘For the First Time, Hispanic Children are the Majority in Texas’ First Grade Classrooms’<br />130,...
Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000<br />
14<br />
Congressional Budget Office<br />“Unless native fertility rates increase, it is likely that most of the growth in the U.S....
Industry Shortages<br />MANUFACTURING<br />RESTAURANT / FOOD SERVICE<br />HEALTHCARE<br />
90% of manufacturers are experiencing a shortage of qualified, skilled production employees, including:<br /><ul><li>Machi...
Operators
Craft workers
Distributors
Technicians</li></ul>Manufacturing Shortages<br />National Association of Manufacturers<br />
    Over the next decade:<br />Restaurant job growth -- 14%<br />Native-born US workforce -- 10% <br />Growth of 16 to 24 ...
‘Doctors Without Borders’TexasTribune.org<br />40% of 1,500 fast-tracked, newly licensed doctors over the last 3 years, we...
Alfredo Quiñones(1987)<br />
Dr. QBrain Surgeon & Associate Professor of Neurosurgery and OncologyJohns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD<br />
Former AF Sec. Michael Wynne<br />We have a “geriatric” fleet that has to be replaced or it will put the Air Force “out of...
January 21, 2008<br />‘U.S. aerospace industry facing labor shortage’<br />40%eligible to retire by 2012<br />
Boomer Retirements & Local Police<br />More than 80% of nation’s 17,000 law enforcement agencies have vacancies that can’t...
GAO ReportOLDER WORKERS: Federal Agencies Face Challenges<br />
Help Wanted: U.S. Border Patrol<br />14,000 BP agents in 2007<br />14,000 additional agents in appropriations bill<br />7 ...
Cocaine Cowboys<br />
Police Officer Recruitment: A Public Sector Crisis<br />Police Chief Magazine October 2006<br />
Trooper Shortage Cuts Training Time<br />“The Department of Public Safety has 400 vacancies and is offering experienced la...
Texas Hunting Industry<br />In 2009, Texas lost approximately $346,000when boomers turned 65 and paid reduced license fees...
‘Felons helped Army meet recruitment goal’<br />San Antonio Express-News<br />10/12/2007<br />1,620 MORAL WAIVERS<br />ISS...
February 14, 2009<br />‘U.S. Military Will Offer Path to Citizenship’<br />Staff Sgt. Alejandro Campos, in Bay Ridge, Broo...
Most Common Questions<br />Why do immigrants come?<br />Do they compete with natives for American jobs?<br />Do we really ...
Mexican Migration Follows Trends in U.S. Employment Rate<br />
Apprehensions – A Function of Labor Demand(Detrended employment lagged 6 m)<br />Thousands, SA<br />Thousands, SA<br />Emp...
Real-time Migration, U.S. and Mexican Business Cycles<br />Thousands, SA<br />Migrant apprehensions<br />Source: CBP, Depa...
Homeward Bound<br />
Increasingly Bimodal Education Distribution (Foreign-born Workers)<br />Percent<br />Source: Ottaviano & Peri, 2005<br />
Harry S. Dent Economist and Demographer<br />
U. S. Joint Forces Command<br />“Russia <br />needs to cope <br />with a rate of <br />population decline that literally <...
‘A Holiday From Russia With Love’<br />
Japan<br />
U. S. Joint Forces Command<br />“Japan’s population will fall from <br />128 million <br />to approximately <br />117 mill...
‘Pickers Are Few, And Growers Blame Congress’<br />New York Times<br />10/22/2006 <br />‘As Farmworkers Become Scarcer, Co...
‘Short on Labor, Farmers in U.S. Shift to Mexico’<br />12 U.S. Agribusinesses Have Moved to Mexico11,000 jobs outsourced<b...
Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)<br />
Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)<br />Microsoft Multiplier Effect:<br />4 : 1<br />For eve...
$ 2.6 Million NASCAR Sponsorship<br />
Mexico’s Birth Dearth<br />
Blockade<br />Hold-the-Line<br />Gatekeeper<br />Safeguard<br />Rio Grande<br />Triple Strike<br />Return to Sender<br />J...
Texas Border Operations<br />Operation Linebacker<br />Operation Border Star<br />Operation Wrangler<br />Operation Texas ...
Between 1986 and 2002<br />Increased Border Patrol’s budget by a factor of ten.<br />Tripled the number of Border Patrol a...
The Results<br />Undocumented population doubled<br />Death rate for border crossings tripled<br />Probability of apprehen...
Ronald Reagan -- The Voice of Reason<br />
Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas<br />
Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas<br />
View from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico<br />
Lines & Delays = Economic Harm<br />Delays impact “Just-in-Time” facilities such as <br />Toyota Assembly Plant in San Ant...
Trends in International TravelU.S. welcomed 2 million fewer overseas visitors in 2007 than 2000<br />www.poweroftravel.org...
Trends in International Travel<br />Travel around world + 28%  compared to travel to USA - 8%<br />www.poweroftravel.org<b...
Trends in International Travel45 MillionFewer Visitors Between 2000 and 2007<br />www.poweroftravel.org<br />Travel Indust...
‘Most Popular Soccer Team in the U.S.: Mexico?’<br />63,227 Charlotte, NC<br />75,000 Meadowlands, NJ<br />90,000 Pasadena...
Carrizo Cane Along Rio Grande River<br />
April 6, 2007<br />‘Border officials fight cover-providing weeds’<br />“Carrizo cane, the invasive, non-native plant grows...
Can You Spot the Border Patrol?<br />
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Leadership Texas May 2010 V2

230

Published on

Published in: Education, Career, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
230
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Leadership Texas May 2010 V2"

  1. 1. Connecting the Dots<br />between Demographics, Workforce and Immigration<br />Eddie Aldrete<br />
  2. 2. Fear and Loathing<br />
  3. 3. Border Fencing<br />298.5 Miles of Vehicle Fencing<br />365.3 Miles of Pedestrian Fencing<br />20.26 Miles of Levee Fencing<br />684.06 Total Miles Complete<br />
  4. 4. Secure Fence Act of 2006<br />
  5. 5. Current Fertility Rates<br />
  6. 6.
  7. 7. Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)<br />Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.<br />
  8. 8. Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)<br />US 61.7<br />US 67.1<br />Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.<br />
  9. 9. Current Fertility Rates<br />
  10. 10.
  11. 11. % of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040*<br />Sources: U.S. Census Counts, and State Data Center Projections, 0.5 Scenario<br />
  12. 12. February 14, 2009<br />‘For the First Time, Hispanic Children are the Majority in Texas’ First Grade Classrooms’<br />130,000 fewer white children than 10 years ago<br />Hispanic children dominate 1st grade classes (50.2%)<br />White children now fewer than 1/3 of 1st graders<br />Current white population of 11.5 million is near its’ peak and will begin to shrink as boomers die off<br />Result would be the same if all undocumented were removed and no future inward migration allowed<br />
  13. 13. Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000<br />
  14. 14. 14<br />
  15. 15. Congressional Budget Office<br />“Unless native fertility rates increase, it is likely that most of the growth in the U.S. labor force will come from immigration by the middle of the century.”<br />
  16. 16. Industry Shortages<br />MANUFACTURING<br />RESTAURANT / FOOD SERVICE<br />HEALTHCARE<br />
  17. 17. 90% of manufacturers are experiencing a shortage of qualified, skilled production employees, including:<br /><ul><li>Machinists
  18. 18. Operators
  19. 19. Craft workers
  20. 20. Distributors
  21. 21. Technicians</li></ul>Manufacturing Shortages<br />National Association of Manufacturers<br />
  22. 22. Over the next decade:<br />Restaurant job growth -- 14%<br />Native-born US workforce -- 10% <br />Growth of 16 to 24 year-olds -- 0.3%.<br />Restaurant Shortages<br />National Restaurant Association<br />2009 Restaurant Industry Forecast<br />December 19, 2009<br />
  23. 23.
  24. 24.
  25. 25.
  26. 26. ‘Doctors Without Borders’TexasTribune.org<br />40% of 1,500 fast-tracked, newly licensed doctors over the last 3 years, were trained at international med schools.<br />
  27. 27. Alfredo Quiñones(1987)<br />
  28. 28. Dr. QBrain Surgeon & Associate Professor of Neurosurgery and OncologyJohns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD<br />
  29. 29.
  30. 30. Former AF Sec. Michael Wynne<br />We have a “geriatric” fleet that has to be replaced or it will put the Air Force “out of business.”<br />
  31. 31. January 21, 2008<br />‘U.S. aerospace industry facing labor shortage’<br />40%eligible to retire by 2012<br />
  32. 32. Boomer Retirements & Local Police<br />More than 80% of nation’s 17,000 law enforcement agencies have vacancies that can’t be filled <br />(Police Chief Magazine, October 2006, vol 73, no 10)<br />Law Enforcement shortages leave states without troopers<br />Texas Sunset Advisory Commission report cites “critical manpower shortage at Texas DPS.<br />‘FBI drug standard lowered for hiring’<br />Current user vs. past drug use (USA Today 08/02/07)<br />In order to meet recruiting goals, agencies are making exceptions for:<br />Bad credit<br />Poor performance on physical exams<br />Drug history<br />Prior gang activity<br />Failed polygraph exams (Texas DPS)<br />
  33. 33. GAO ReportOLDER WORKERS: Federal Agencies Face Challenges<br />
  34. 34. Help Wanted: U.S. Border Patrol<br />14,000 BP agents in 2007<br />14,000 additional agents in appropriations bill<br />7 times as many grads in BP Academy in a year is a recipe for corruption<br />
  35. 35. Cocaine Cowboys<br />
  36. 36. Police Officer Recruitment: A Public Sector Crisis<br />Police Chief Magazine October 2006<br />
  37. 37. Trooper Shortage Cuts Training Time<br />“The Department of Public Safety has 400 vacancies and is offering experienced law officers a chance to become troopers in just two months.”<br />Associated Press - 02/26/2010<br />
  38. 38. Texas Hunting Industry<br />In 2009, Texas lost approximately $346,000when boomers turned 65 and paid reduced license fees.<br />State Targeting Girls to Boost Ranks of Hunters<br />Dallas Morning News<br />June 14, 2008<br />
  39. 39. ‘Felons helped Army meet recruitment goal’<br />San Antonio Express-News<br />10/12/2007<br />1,620 MORAL WAIVERS<br />ISSUED IN 2007<br />
  40. 40. February 14, 2009<br />‘U.S. Military Will Offer Path to Citizenship’<br />Staff Sgt. Alejandro Campos, in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, became a citizen after joining the Army.<br />
  41. 41. Most Common Questions<br />Why do immigrants come?<br />Do they compete with natives for American jobs?<br />Do we really need immigrants with so many unemployed Americans?<br />
  42. 42. Mexican Migration Follows Trends in U.S. Employment Rate<br />
  43. 43. Apprehensions – A Function of Labor Demand(Detrended employment lagged 6 m)<br />Thousands, SA<br />Thousands, SA<br />Employment<br />Apprehensions<br />Source: BLS, DHS<br />
  44. 44. Real-time Migration, U.S. and Mexican Business Cycles<br />Thousands, SA<br />Migrant apprehensions<br />Source: CBP, Department of Homeland Security<br />
  45. 45. Homeward Bound<br />
  46. 46. Increasingly Bimodal Education Distribution (Foreign-born Workers)<br />Percent<br />Source: Ottaviano & Peri, 2005<br />
  47. 47. Harry S. Dent Economist and Demographer<br />
  48. 48. U. S. Joint Forces Command<br />“Russia <br />needs to cope <br />with a rate of <br />population decline that literally <br />has no historical<br />precedent <br />in the absence of pandemic.”<br />
  49. 49. ‘A Holiday From Russia With Love’<br />
  50. 50. Japan<br />
  51. 51. U. S. Joint Forces Command<br />“Japan’s population will fall from <br />128 million <br />to approximately <br />117 million<br />in the 2030’s…from the collapse of their birth rate.”<br />
  52. 52. ‘Pickers Are Few, And Growers Blame Congress’<br />New York Times<br />10/22/2006 <br />‘As Farmworkers Become Scarcer, Congress Dithers’<br />Washington Post<br />12/4/2007 <br />
  53. 53. ‘Short on Labor, Farmers in U.S. Shift to Mexico’<br />12 U.S. Agribusinesses Have Moved to Mexico11,000 jobs outsourced<br />
  54. 54. Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)<br />
  55. 55. Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)<br />Microsoft Multiplier Effect:<br />4 : 1<br />For every job Microsoft creates, four other related jobs are created in the Washington state economy.<br />1,500 Microsoft jobs outsourced<br />6,000 additional jobs outsourced?<br />
  56. 56.
  57. 57. $ 2.6 Million NASCAR Sponsorship<br />
  58. 58. Mexico’s Birth Dearth<br />
  59. 59. Blockade<br />Hold-the-Line<br />Gatekeeper<br />Safeguard<br />Rio Grande<br />Triple Strike<br />Return to Sender<br />Jump Start<br />Full Court Press<br />Stonegarden<br />Gunrunner<br />Armas Cruzadas<br />Southern Border Operations<br />(Since 1993)<br />
  60. 60. Texas Border Operations<br />Operation Linebacker<br />Operation Border Star<br />Operation Wrangler<br />Operation Texas Border Watch<br />The Daily Show on webcams<br />
  61. 61. Between 1986 and 2002<br />Increased Border Patrol’s budget by a factor of ten.<br />Tripled the number of Border Patrol agents<br />Spent eight times as many hours patrolling the border<br />
  62. 62. The Results<br />Undocumented population doubled<br />Death rate for border crossings tripled<br />Probability of apprehension dropped significantly<br />Per-apprehension cost has risen 476%<br />Circularity has stopped<br />
  63. 63. Ronald Reagan -- The Voice of Reason<br />
  64. 64. Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas<br />
  65. 65. Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas<br />
  66. 66. View from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico<br />
  67. 67. Lines & Delays = Economic Harm<br />Delays impact “Just-in-Time” facilities such as <br />Toyota Assembly Plant in San Antonio<br />
  68. 68. Trends in International TravelU.S. welcomed 2 million fewer overseas visitors in 2007 than 2000<br />www.poweroftravel.org<br />Travel Industry Association of America<br />
  69. 69. Trends in International Travel<br />Travel around world + 28% compared to travel to USA - 8%<br />www.poweroftravel.org<br />Travel Industry Association of America<br />
  70. 70. Trends in International Travel45 MillionFewer Visitors Between 2000 and 2007<br />www.poweroftravel.org<br />Travel Industry Association & US Commerce Dept<br />
  71. 71. ‘Most Popular Soccer Team in the U.S.: Mexico?’<br />63,227 Charlotte, NC<br />75,000 Meadowlands, NJ<br />90,000 Pasadena, CA<br />
  72. 72. Carrizo Cane Along Rio Grande River<br />
  73. 73. April 6, 2007<br />‘Border officials fight cover-providing weeds’<br />“Carrizo cane, the invasive, non-native plant grows<br />stalks up to<br />18 feet tall <br />and can get <br />so dense it makes roads impassable.”<br />
  74. 74. Can You Spot the Border Patrol?<br />
  75. 75. Carrizo Cane (before)<br />
  76. 76. Carrizo Cane (after)<br />
  77. 77. Essential to our Economy<br />
  78. 78. Solutions<br />An immigration system that works<br />Focus on human mobility<br />Balance security with facilitation<br />Smart borders<br />Floating visa caps<br />Implement US Chamber’s Infrastructure Initiative for roadways and railways<br />Restore America’s image around the world<br />
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×