Evaluating Basins for Salmon Conservation across the North Pacific: Abundance, Diversity and Threats Matthew Goslin – Ecotrust Malin Pinsky – Wild Salmon Center, Stanford Dane Springmeyer – Wild Salmon Center Jon Bonkoski – Ecotrust Presented at American Association of Geographers, April 2007 Society for Conservation GIS, June 2007

Background The State of the Salmon program: “ Knowledge across borders” a joint program of Ecotrust: “ Building a conservation economy” The Wild Salmon Center: “ Dedicated to conserving the most important places for salmon across the North Pacific”

The State of the Salmon program:

“ Knowledge across borders”

a joint program of

Ecotrust:

“ Building a conservation economy”

The Wild Salmon Center:

“ Dedicated to conserving the most important places for salmon across the North Pacific”

Current Wild Salmon Center Program Areas

Pacific Salmon Conservation Assessment (PSCA) Prioritizing investments in North Pacific salmon conservation An Outcome: Design North Pacific Network of salmon conservation rivers A Tool: Explore patterns in salmon abundance and relationships to landscape characteristics and threats Available for others to use and explore data A Process: Collaborative Transparent Continual improvement

Prioritizing investments in North Pacific salmon conservation

An Outcome:

Design North Pacific Network of salmon conservation rivers

A Tool:

Explore patterns in salmon abundance and relationships to landscape characteristics and threats

Available for others to use and explore data

A Process:

Collaborative

Transparent

Continual improvement

Assessment Criteria Hatchery Influence Landscape SuitabilityThreats Dams, Urban & Agricultural Development Abundance Species and Life History Richness Conservation Value

Hatchery Influence

Landscape SuitabilityThreats

Dams, Urban & Agricultural Development

Study Area and Watershed Units Key issue – uniform scale and data quality across region 915 watershed units evaluated Current range of anadromous Pacific salmon Excluded areas in far north (Arctic) and far south (Honshu) with limited salmon presence and/or unavailable data Hydro1k level5 catchments (USGS 2003) Derived from 1km resolution global DEMs Size range 92 – 35,000 km2; average 4,300 km2 Edited to correct egregious errors in boundaries using Digital Chart of the World hydrography for reference

Key issue – uniform scale and data quality across region

915 watershed units evaluated

Current range of anadromous Pacific salmon

Excluded areas in far north (Arctic) and far south (Honshu) with limited salmon presence and/or unavailable data

Hydro1k level5 catchments (USGS 2003)

Derived from 1km resolution global DEMs

Size range 92 – 35,000 km2; average 4,300 km2

Edited to correct egregious errors in boundaries using Digital Chart of the World hydrography for reference

Hydro1k Units

PSCA Study Area and Historic Range of Salmon

North Pacific Salmon Species Assessed Oncorhynchus spp. median, max for hydro1k catchments Chinook (King) – O. tshawytscha 3,500 median; 109,000 max Chum – O. keta 26,000 median; 5,000,000 max Coho – O. kisutch 10,000 median; 1,100,000 max Pink – O. gorbuscha 57,000 median; 18,000,000 max Sockeye – O. nerka 19,000 median; 9,900,000 max Steelhead – O. mykiss 1,000 median; 41,000 max

Oncorhynchus spp.

median, max for hydro1k catchments

Chinook (King) – O. tshawytscha

3,500 median; 109,000 max

Chum – O. keta

26,000 median; 5,000,000 max

Coho – O. kisutch

10,000 median; 1,100,000 max

Pink – O. gorbuscha

57,000 median; 18,000,000 max

Sockeye – O. nerka

19,000 median; 9,900,000 max

Steelhead – O. mykiss

1,000 median; 41,000 max

Estimating Abundance Compiled from agency reports, published literature, expert judgment Typically took annual average over the most recent 4 yrs of data (2001-2005), but where recent data was unavailable went back to earliest available post-1960 Attempted to exclude hatchery fish, intent to include wild only Direct measures include catch, escapement (number of returning adult spawners), harvest rate etc. Total adult abundance = catch * % wild + escapement * %wild = catch / harvest rate * %wild = escapement * % wild / (1 – harvest rate ) Most widely available data are maps of salmon distribution with occupied stream length the most common metric

Compiled from agency reports, published literature, expert judgment

Typically took annual average over the most recent 4 yrs of data (2001-2005), but where recent data was unavailable went back to earliest available post-1960

Attempted to exclude hatchery fish, intent to include wild only

Direct measures include catch, escapement (number of returning adult spawners), harvest rate etc.

Total adult abundance

= catch * % wild + escapement * %wild

= catch / harvest rate * %wild

= escapement * % wild / (1 – harvest rate )

Most widely available data are maps of salmon distribution with occupied stream length the most common metric

Estimating Abundance: Geographic Methods Allocate abundance measured over multiple catchments and apportioned to individual catchments by relative occupied stream length within each catchment Expand abundance measured within a portion of a watershed to the full catchment using occupied stream length Extrapolate abundance into catchments with no data using regional linear models relating abundance to occupied stream length

Allocate abundance measured over multiple catchments and apportioned to individual catchments by relative occupied stream length within each catchment

Expand abundance measured within a portion of a watershed to the full catchment using occupied stream length

Extrapolate abundance into catchments with no data using regional linear models relating abundance to occupied stream length

Methods of Estimating Abundance for Coho

Chinook Abundance

Chum Abundance

Coho Abundance

Pink Abundance

Sockeye Abundance

Steelhead Abundance

Species and Life History Richness Life history richness defined as the number of distinct migration timings for a given salmon species within a given watershed (e.g. fall, winter, spring, summer or even/odd years) Migration timing is genetically linked and represents distinct life history strategies that are adaptations to local conditions and flow timing.

Life history richness defined as the number of distinct migration timings for a given salmon species within a given watershed (e.g. fall, winter, spring, summer or even/odd years)

Migration timing is genetically linked and represents distinct life history strategies that are adaptations to local conditions and flow timing.

Life History Richness for Chinook

Species and Life History Richness

Integrating Abundance and Richness into a Conservation Value Index How you choose to calculate your index determines what it shows you! Option 1 scales the abundance of each species in each watershed by the maximum abundance possible for that species across the N. Pacific, equalizing species Where A i,j is abundance of species j in watershed i , p is total number of species, T is total number of watersheds, R is life history richness and maxNP is the maximum value across the North Pacific Option 2 divides abundance of each species in each watershed by the total abundance for that species acroos the N. Pacific, giving rare species more weight

How you choose to calculate your index determines what it shows you!

Conservation Value derived from Life History Richness and Abundance Scaled by North Pacific Maximum per Species

Conservation Value derived from Life History Richness and Abundance Scaled by North Pacific Total per Species

Pacific Salmon Ecoregions: distinguished by major marine features and basins

Potential Priority Watersheds: Watersheds with High-Ranking Conservation Values Distributed across Salmon Ecoregions

Assessing Landscape Suitability and Threats Data Sources: Agricultural and Urban Land Areas Global Landuse Landcover (USGS) Dams State of the Salmon Dams Inventory Hatcheries State of the Salmon Hatcheries Inventory Threats can be incorporated into the Conservation Value Index as negative terms or... Relationships can be explored between the Conservation Value and the threat indices as explanatory variables

Data Sources:

Agricultural and Urban Land Areas

Global Landuse Landcover (USGS)

Dams

State of the Salmon Dams Inventory

Hatcheries

State of the Salmon Hatcheries Inventory

Threats can be incorporated into the Conservation Value Index as negative terms or...

Relationships can be explored between the Conservation Value and the threat indices as explanatory variables

Pacific Salmon Hatcheries

Hatcheries by Catchment

Landscape Suitability Indices: Urban Land Use

Landscape Suitability Indices: Agriculture

Dams within Pacific Salmon Basins

Modeling Dam Impacts on Fish Passage through a Stream Network Using ArcGIS Network Analyst and the TRACE ACCUMULATE function, stream networks are traced upstream starting from the basin’s outlet. “Impedance” values that are associated with dams and represent a reduction in stream passability for migrating salmon are accumulated through the network.

Modeling Dam Impacts on Fish Passage through a Stream Network Stream passability declines as a percent of its previous passability. Each passable dam encountered reduces passability by 10% of the pre-dam passability. Cumulative impedance represents cumulative reduction in stream passability. Impassable dams reduce passability to 0 and impedance becomes 1. ( 1 - .73) = .27 (.81 - .81 * .1) = .73 .81 ( 1 - .81) = .19 (.90 - .90 * .1 ) = .81 .90 ( 1 - .90) = .10 (1.0 - 1.0 * .1) = .90 1.00 Post-dam Pre-dam Cumulative Impedance Passability

Impedance to Fish Passage: Columbia, Snake and Sacramento River mainstems

Impedance to Fish Passage through Stream Networks: Pacific Northwest and Northern California

Calculating a Dam Impact Index for Watersheds from Traced Stream Networks For each watershed the dam index is calculated as Examples: A watershed with 10% of streams above an impassable dam will have dam index = .10 2) A watershed with 100% of streams above one passable dam will also have dam index = .10

For each watershed the dam index is calculated as

Examples:

A watershed with 10% of streams above an impassable dam will have dam index = .10

2) A watershed with 100% of streams above one passable dam will also have dam index = .10

Dam Impact (Impedance) Index by Watershed: Pacific Northwest and California

Index of Dam Impacts on Fish Passage

Combined Landscape Threat Index: derived from PCA of Dams, Ag and Urban Indices

Conservation Value Versus Threats and Potential Conservation Strategies Restoration-oriented, Reactive Strategy Protection-oriented, Proactive Strategy Threat Value

Future Direction Complete hatchery database and design impact analysis for hatcheries Expand analysis of dam impacts to include downstream effects Explore relationships between abundance or conservation value and threats further Continue to explore and decide how to incorporate threat indices into conservation value index

Complete hatchery database and design impact analysis for hatcheries

Expand analysis of dam impacts to include downstream effects

Explore relationships between abundance or conservation value and threats further

Continue to explore and decide how to incorporate threat indices into conservation value index

Acknowledgements Malin Pinsky, Dane Springmeyer, David Colbeck (WSC) Jon Bonkoski (Ecotrust) Scientific Advisory Team: Xan Augerot, Paul McElhany, Gordon Reeves, Kelly Burnett, Peter Moyle, Jeff Rodgers, Karl English, Greg Ruggerone, Jack Stanford, Rob Ahrens, Peter Moyle, Randall Peterman Russian Advisors: Sergei Zolotukhin, Anatoly Semenchenko

Malin Pinsky, Dane Springmeyer, David Colbeck (WSC)

Jon Bonkoski (Ecotrust)

Scientific Advisory Team:

Xan Augerot, Paul McElhany, Gordon Reeves, Kelly Burnett, Peter Moyle, Jeff Rodgers, Karl English, Greg Ruggerone, Jack Stanford, Rob Ahrens, Peter Moyle, Randall Peterman

Russian Advisors:

Sergei Zolotukhin, Anatoly Semenchenko