January 2012 EIU Global Economic Forecast

Global forecasting service Economic forecast summary – January 2012 www.gfs.eiu.com

The US economy grew by 2% in the third quarter, demonstrating resilience. However, fiscal tightening and weak EU demand will constrain growth in 2012. We are forecasting US GDP growth of 1.7% in 2011 and 1.3% in 2012.
The Fed will keep interest rates very low through to the first half of 2013, but deleveraging will constrain spending. A further round of quantitative easing is possible if the economy moves towards recession and deflation is a risk.
A large overhang of houses will prevent a recovery of the property market, with an adverse impact on households’ balance-sheets.

The euro zone crisis has spread from the periphery to the core.
The latest plan to resolve the crisis centres on a fiscal compact imposing discipline on euro member states. Some funding to stressed sovereigns is likely to be channelled through the IMF. The ECB is reluctant to buy unlimited amounts of Italian and Spanish government bonds.
The euro zone economy has slowed sharply since mid-2011 and we now expect it to contract, by 1.2%, in 2012, before staging a modest recovery in 2013.

The March 11 th earthquake and tsunami had a severe impact on power supplies and supply chains.
But manufacturing is already experiencing a V-shaped recovery and the economy returned to growth in the second half. After a contraction of 0.3% in 2011, we forecast GDP growth of 2.2% in 2012. From 2013 we expect the economy to grow at a rate of just above 1%.
While the outlook for the global economy remains uncertain, the yen is set to remain strong, creating headwinds for manufacturers.

In response to fears of an economic downturn, a number of EM central banks have cut interest rates or at least postponed monetary tightening.
EM currencies and asset markets have fallen as the euro zone crisis has caused a loss of risk appetite.
EMs lost momentum during 2011 as developed markets hit the buffers. China is causing concern because of stresses in the housing market. For 2012 we have cut our growth forecasts to reflect sluggish demand in the West. We still expect EMs to outperform their developed peers in 2012-16.

Oil consumption growth will be constrained in 2012 by the weak OECD economic outlook. It will average nearly 2% year on year in 2013-16, led by rising demand in the developing world.
The prospect of a resumption of Libyan output in the next 1-2 years has improved the supply outlook. Geopolitical risk remains high, however.
Prices will weaken in 2012 in tandem with weaker demand but will pick up thereafter.

Consumption growth is expected to slow in 2012 owing to weak EU and US growth and somewhat slower growth in the developing world.
However, rising emerging market incomes and urbanisation will underpin medium-term demand growth.
Years of underinvestment, particularly in agriculture, will support prices.
Nominal prices will remain historically high in 2012-16, but prices will ease back in real terms.

Faced with persistently high unemployment and the risk of a renewed downturn, the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate at exceptionally low levels until mid-2013. Another round of quantitative easing (QE) is possible in 2012, particularly if the problems in the euro zone worsen.
The ECB has reversed the two rate rises earlier in 2011. In 2012 we expect the ECB to cut its policy rate to 0.5%. The ECB has lengthened the term of its liquidity facilities for banks experiencing funding stresses.

The funding stresses experienced by euro zone sovereigns and banks are being translated to the foreign-exchange market where the euro is in danger of falling out of a recent trading range of US$1.30-1.40: €.
The yen is currently fulfilling its traditional role as a safe haven but a declining domestic savings rate will make it vulnerable in the medium term.
In the short term EM currencies are susceptible to risk aversion. But over the medium term they will be supported by growth and interest rate differentials with OECD economies.

20 25 15 12 12 - Tensions over currency manipulation lead to protectionism - Resumption of monetary stimulus leads to new asset bubbles - The Chinese economy crashes - The euro zone breaks up - The global economy falls into recession

10 12 9 8 8 + Oil prices slump + Unprecedented policy response in euro zone prevents contagion - Economic upheaval leads to widespread social and political unrest - The US dollar crashes - Oil prices remain at extremely high levels

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January 2012 EIU Global Economic Forecast

by Economist Intelligence Unit on Jan 05, 2012

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January 2012 EIU Global Economic Forecast — Presentation Transcript