EIU's Africa Cities Rising


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Africa’s economy is growing at a rapid pace. In 2011-12, the continent is expected to grow faster than any other region or country in the world, apart from China and India.- and increasingly, this is becoming more than just a commodity story. Africa has peaked the interest of companies looking to expand their businesses, but the question now is where to invest? Africa is a huge continent with many diverse nations. To help answer this question, the EIU has developed an Africa Cities tool, which compares key indicators across 25 of the fastest growing cities in Africa. These key indicators include population and demographics, income and expenditure, business demographics and lifestyle indicators, and cost of living. Executives can now size out the market for their products today and for the future based on these essential city data points. Download the summary to find out about Africa's fastest growing cities and what it means for the global economy.

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EIU's Africa Cities Rising

  1. Africa cities risingForecasting data and analysis from the EIUSeptember 18th 2012© Economist Intelligence UnitContact us to learn more about how we canhelp your company plan your Africa strategy:AfricaCities@ eiu.com
  2. Africa’s economy is growing fast Real GDP growth (2012-2016 forecast) Above 10% 7.5% to 10% 5% to 7.5% 2.5% to 5% Below 2.5%2
  3. By 2012, 8 of the world’s 20 fastest growing economieswill be African GDP growth 12 10 8 6 2011 2012 4 2013 2 0 Western US Brazil Russia Sub-Saharan India China Sub-Saharan Europe Africa Africa ex South Africa -23
  4. Africa’s growth story has always revolved around commodities4
  5. But Africa’s growth story is now more diverse The ‘peace dividend’ – After years of armed conflict and military rule, democracy is the latest wind of change sweeping across the continent Urbanisation - Half of all Africans are under 20, and are rapidly moving to cities: more than 40% of Africans now live in urban areas Improved governance – Greater accountability comes hand-in- hand with democracy and the slow strengthening of institutions Trade, not aid – Europe is still Africa’s largest trading partner, but China’s share of trade has exploded in the last decade The rise of technology – The number of mobile subscribers in Africa exceeded the 0.5 billion mark in 2010, allowing companies greater access to consumers Infrastructure investment – Chinese companies are building roads and upgrading railways, ports and airports5
  6. Even though challenges for companies remain • Katherine Changes in Transparency International’s corruption rankings for African countries since 2005 25 23 Inefficient border posts Inadequate railway networks Poor roads – and not enough of them Bribery & either corruption Poor skill base Congested ports Uninviting airports6
  7. Companies are showing more interest than ever in expandinginto AfricaA recent survey conducted by The Economist Group of 217 global companies based in 45 countriesrevealed that expansion in Africa is a priority for two thirds of them within the next decade Does your company operate in … Plans to expand in the next 3 to 5 years… South Africa Elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Elsewhere in Africa56% 140%54% 120%52% 100%50% 80%48% 60%46% 40%44% 20%42% 0% Yes No Existing Planned * Economist Corporate Network survey, 20127
  8. Companies need Africa city-level data and analysis Companies looking to expand into Africa want to concentrate their strategy where growth and demographics are most favourable – in major cities. It is not enough to plan a strategy around nationally forecasted growth, but rather to have critical forecasting and business information on a particular city. In response to increasing inquiries from companies to understand African growth, the EIU has developed a tool to forecast key demographics and indicators for 25 of the fastest growing and most important cities. Consumption in Africa is much greater in urban than rural areas Source: World Bank8
  9. Why these African cities? Algiers Tunis Alexandria Casablanca Tripoli Based on key economic drivers, Cairo client feedback and a survey of Corporate Network members, the Khartoum Dakar EIU identified 25 African cities Kumasi Abuja Addis (across 19 countries) that are of Ababa Douala particular interest. Kampala Abidjan Accra Lagos Nairobi Mombasa These cities represent some of the Dar es Salaam Luanda best opportunities for growth, but Lusaka up until now data has been lacking to support the case, and strategy, Jo’burg for market entry. Maputo Durban Cape Town9
  10. Introducing the EIU’s Africa Cities tool for city-level analysis 2. View an in-depth profile of a city1. Compare indicators across all 25 cities 3. Compare two cities head-to-head 10
  11. The Africa Cities tool indicators Business Population and Income and Cost of living index demographics & demographics expenditure lifestyle indicators• Total population • Total expenditure per annum • Internet users % • Customised cost of living index• Number of households • Expenditure per capita • Mobile phone subscriptions for the 25 cities, comparing the• Total male/female population costs of: • Expenditure per household • Number of salaried employees• Population aged 0-4 • Food and non-alcoholic • Expenditure by category • Number of businesses• Population aged 5-9 () beverages • Median income • Number of businesses with• Population aged 10-14 • Alcoholic beverages and • %/Number/Total income/of turnover: 0 - 25m LCU tobacco• Total population aged 15-19 people earning >$2,000 pa • Number of businesses with • Clothing and footwear• Total population aged 20-24 • %/Number/Total income of turnover: $10 - 50m • Housing, water, electricity, gas• Total population aged 25-29 people earning >$5,000 pa • Number of businesses with and other fuels• Total population aged 30-34 • %/Number/Total income of turnover: $50 - 100m • Furnishings, household• Total population aged 35-39 people earning >$10,000 pa • Number of businesses with equipment and maintenance• Total population aged 40-44 • %/Number/Total income of turnover: $100 - 250m • Health• Total population aged 45-49 people earning >$15,000 pa • Number of businesses with turnover: $250 - 500m • Transport• Total population aged 50-54 • %/Number/Total income of people earning >$20,000 pa • Number of businesses with • Communication• Total population aged 55-59 turnover >$500m • Recreation and Culture • %/Number/Total income of• Total population aged 60-64 people earning >$30,000 pa • Number of businesses with 0 - • Educations• Total population aged 65-69 • %/Number/Total income of 19 employees • Restaurants and Hotels• Total population aged 70-74 people earning >$40,000 pa • Number of businesses with 20 - • Miscellaneous goods and• Total population aged 75-79 99 employees services• Total population aged 80 • Number of businesses with 100 - 499 employees • Number of businesses with 500 - 999 employees • Number of businesses with 1,000 - 4,999 employees • Number of businesses with > 5,000 employees11
  12. Our methodology The Team Data gathering and estimation Collation and front-end design Interviews with local EIU project managers, statistical bodies as well as analysts & an on-the- data collection from ground network of African household and labour force contributors surveys EIU Worldwide Cost Construction of a cost of of Living team Cost of EIU Worldwide living index for the 25 African Living team cities Design of an interactive Excel workbook with a graphical interface that allows quick comparison of Estimation and econometric cities. EIU Economics Unit modelling of unavailable data EIU Africa analysts Sense-check of final data12
  13. Key results – Cities paint a much different picture than nations • Per-capita expenditure was higher in each of the 25 • Africa is urbanizing fast and cities are attracting cities, than in their respective nations. more and more migrants. • Citizens in cities spent 94.4% more, per capita, than • As a result we are witnessing the emergence of their countrymen as a whole. “super cities”- each bringing considerable opportunities. • The demographic profile of these cities can be much different than the national level picture. Per capita city-level expenditure v national-level expenditure Demographic profile of Lagos v Nigeria13
  14. Key results – Demographics are favourable • While Africa as a whole has favourable demographics, the Africa cities we measured had notable differences between them: • Cities like Nairobi, Addis Ababa and Mombasa have a glut of their population in the key 20- 35 age demographic. • The largest growth in population from 2012- 2025 will come from Kampala, Dar es Salaam, and Lusaka14
  15. Key results – Expenditure is growingExpenditure per capita differs markedly across cities, depending on the product in question.15
  16. Key results - Cost of living differs between citiesCities like Luanda feature considerable inequality and official prices are extremely expensive.16
  17. What are companies doing with Africa Cities data? Forecasting sales of their products and services in African cities Benchmarking African cities to find the best opportunities for their products and services Forecasting demand for their products and services Determining wages for staff in various African cities Finding new market opportunities among African consumers17
  18. Want to learn more about the EIU’s Africa Cities data andanalysis? Contact us to learn more about the tools and analysis we have that can help your company plan your Africa strategy: AfricaCities@eiu.com London: +44 (0)20 7576 8181 New York: +1 212 698 9717 Hong Kong: +852 2585 3888 About the Economist Intelligence Unit: The Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecasting and analysis has informed government and industry around the world since 1946, when we were founded as the research arm of The Economist. Like The Economist we are independent of all governing bodies and corporations. For the last 65 years we have provided focused business insight on any given industry, country and market to help clients take advantage of new opportunities, maximise capabilities and support both tactical and strategic decision making.18