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2 2 Fingar 2 2 Fingar Presentation Transcript

  • FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES POST CRISIS POST-CRISIS Insight and intelligence from the Financial Times Ltd 29 June 2009 1
  • ABOUT US: Introducing fDi Intelligence Leading provider of FDI insight and intelligence • The Financial Times Ltd’s dedicated division for foreign direct Ltd s investment, corporate location and investment promotion • The largest private-sector FDI research centre, with 40 economists, analysts and specialists as well as the magazine team • Products and services include: – fDi Magazine, p o d g insight o t e bus ess o g oba at o aga e, providing s g t on the business of globalization – fDi Markets, providing intelligence on FDI trends and MNEs – fDi Benchmark, providing intelligence on location competitiveness – fDi Reports, customised reports and data research – Bespoke FDI events and investor roundtables 2
  • A LOOK BACK AT 2008 • A record year for greenfield investment (+30% over 2007) • Economic crisis starting to bite in Q3 • M&A market hit severely but … severely, • Effect of global slowdown and credit crunch on ‘real’ investment less dramatic than on overall foreign investment flows • China the top destination market by number of p j p y projects, , capex and jobs created 3
  • Top 5 Global Destination Countries - 2008 p 140 1600 120 1400 1200 100 China China 1000 80 USA India 800 India USA 60 Russia 600 UK 40 Vietnam 400 France 20 200 0 0 No of Projects Capex ($bn) 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 China 300,000 300 000 India 250,000 Russia 200,000 150,000 Romania 100,000 100 000 Vietnam 50,000 0 New Jobs Created 4
  • Top 5 Global Destination Cities - 2008 p 25 350 20 300 15 Dubai 250 Dubai London 10 London Shanghai 200 Shanghai 5 Tunis Beijing 0 150 Bucharest Paris Capex ($bn) 100 100,000 100 000 50 80,000 0 Bucharest No of Projects 60,000 Dubai 40,000 Shanghai Moscow 20,000 St. Petersburg 0 New Jobs Created 5
  • Top 5 Destination Countries in the Eastern part of Europe - 2008 600 Russia 100 Russia 400 Poland Romania 50 200 Romania Poland 0 Turkey 0 Turkey No of Projects Hungary Capex ($bn) Bulgaria 300,000 Russia 200,000 200 000 Romania 100,000 Poland 0 New Jobs Turkey Created Bulgaria 6
  • Top 5 Destination Cities in the Eastern part of Europe - 2008 150 15 Moscow Bucharest 100 Bucharest 10 St. Petersburg St. Petersburg 5 Moscow 50 Warsaw Gniew 0 Istanbul 0 Istanbul No of Projects Capex ($bn) 100,000 Bucharest 50,000 Moscow St. Petersburg 0 Warsaw New Jobs Istanbul Created 7
  • FDI INTO UKRAINE • 2008 performance: 123 projects, $6.73bn capex, 578 jobs • Marginal increase over 2007 by project numbers and capex, but significant decrease in # of new jobs created • Top investors 2003-2009: Metro (Germany), PKO Bank Polski (Poland), RZB (Austria), Lukoil (Russia), UniCredit (Italy) and VS Energy International (Netherlands) • Leading sector since 2003: financial services (16% of p j projects)) • Leading business activity: manufacturing (24%) • Top source markets: Russia, Germany and US 8
  • UKRAINE: GROWTH AREAS • Fastest growing sector is real estate (by # of projects): 123% growth p.a. on average • Other growth sectors: hotels/tourism (+83%), food and ( 83%), tobacco (28%), financial services (26%), consumer goods (23%) and communications (23%), • Fastest growing business activity is logistics, distribution and transportation: 91% growth p.a. • Other growth activities: sales, marketing and support (71%), construction (63%) and business services (28%) • M Manufacturing saw decline of avg 5% year on year f t i d li f 9
  • GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR 2009 • Decline of 13% predicted in the number of greenfield FDI projects in 2009 • Greenfield investment in developed economies expected to fall significantly more than this • Investment in developing economies expected to achieve p g p similar levels to 2008 • Recession brings a shift in focus for FDI flows • Key trends: shifts to developing countries and rapidly urbanising cities, and to services and enviro tech sectors 10
  • SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT High risk Medium risk Low risk •Construction •Power equipment •Low-carbon sector •Real estate •Aircraft manufacture •Health services** •Financial services •International tourism •Social services •Building materials g •Accounting g •Education •Architecture •Media •Food & agriculture •Engineering services •Consulting and PR •Domestic tourism •Wood products •Software & ITIT* •Internet retailers •Motor-vehicle retail •Retailing (non-food) •Mobile telecoms •Consumer goods •Tobacco manufacture •R&D and testing •Personal services P l i *ERP, CRM, open source, ITO resilient. •Utilities Utiliti Other areas may decline •Auto manufacturing •Defence •Hardware/electronics •Pharma •Apparel manufacture •Energy & mining •Chemicals •Transportation Source: fDi Intelligence from the Financial Times Ltd **growth expected 11
  • fDi INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY Where companies plan to increase investments in 2009: • Asia is the top region, with more than a third of companies surveyed planning to increase investments there • Second is Europe, where more than a quarter plan to increase investments est e ts • North America, Latin America and Middle East followed, with just under a quarter of companies planning to expand in these markets • Africa i h fourth region li d ( 10%) Af i is the f h i listed (< 12
  • INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY Which business functions anticipated investments will involve: p • The two most commonly cited were R&D and sales, marketing and support (tied) with nearly a quarter of companies planning to expand these functions • Second was manufacturing (roughly 15%) • Followed b (i order of i F ll d by (in d f importance): t ) - Logistics, distribution and transportation; business services (tied) - Design, development and testing g , p g - Construction; electricity; and maintenance and servicing (tied) 13
  • For more information, please contact: p Courtney Fingar Editor fDi Magazine Tel: (+44)(0)20 7775 6365 Email: Courtney.Fingar@FT.com www.fdimagazine.com Inna Schlepina Business Development Manager fDi Intelligence Tel: +44 (0) 207 775 6014 Email: Inna Schlepina@FT com Inna.Schlepina@FT.com www.fdiintelligence.com 14