FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT:
          TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES POST CRISIS
                                  POST-CRISIS
   ...
ABOUT US: Introducing fDi Intelligence
    Leading provider of FDI insight and intelligence

•     The Financial Times Ltd...
A LOOK BACK AT 2008

• A record year for greenfield investment (+30% over 2007)
• Economic crisis starting to bite in Q3
•...
Top 5 Global Destination Countries - 2008
    p
                                                     140
1600
            ...
Top 5 Global Destination Cities - 2008
  p
                                       25
350
                                 ...
Top 5 Destination Countries in the Eastern
part of Europe - 2008

600                       Russia        100             ...
Top 5 Destination Cities in the Eastern part
of Europe - 2008

150                                         15
            ...
FDI INTO UKRAINE

• 2008 performance: 123 projects, $6.73bn capex, 578 jobs
• Marginal increase over 2007 by project numbe...
UKRAINE: GROWTH AREAS

• Fastest growing sector is real estate (by # of projects):
  123% growth p.a. on average
• Other g...
GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR 2009

• Decline of 13% predicted in the number of greenfield FDI
  projects in 2009
• Greenfield invest...
SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT
   High risk                             Medium risk                                     Low risk

...
fDi INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY


Where companies plan to increase investments in 2009:

•   Asia is the top region, with m...
INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY

Which business functions anticipated investments will involve:
                               ...
For more information, please contact:
                      p
                  Courtney Fingar
                          ...
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2 2 Fingar

  1. 1. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES POST CRISIS POST-CRISIS Insight and intelligence from the Financial Times Ltd 29 June 2009 1
  2. 2. ABOUT US: Introducing fDi Intelligence Leading provider of FDI insight and intelligence • The Financial Times Ltd’s dedicated division for foreign direct Ltd s investment, corporate location and investment promotion • The largest private-sector FDI research centre, with 40 economists, analysts and specialists as well as the magazine team • Products and services include: – fDi Magazine, p o d g insight o t e bus ess o g oba at o aga e, providing s g t on the business of globalization – fDi Markets, providing intelligence on FDI trends and MNEs – fDi Benchmark, providing intelligence on location competitiveness – fDi Reports, customised reports and data research – Bespoke FDI events and investor roundtables 2
  3. 3. A LOOK BACK AT 2008 • A record year for greenfield investment (+30% over 2007) • Economic crisis starting to bite in Q3 • M&A market hit severely but … severely, • Effect of global slowdown and credit crunch on ‘real’ investment less dramatic than on overall foreign investment flows • China the top destination market by number of p j p y projects, , capex and jobs created 3
  4. 4. Top 5 Global Destination Countries - 2008 p 140 1600 120 1400 1200 100 China China 1000 80 USA India 800 India USA 60 Russia 600 UK 40 Vietnam 400 France 20 200 0 0 No of Projects Capex ($bn) 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 China 300,000 300 000 India 250,000 Russia 200,000 150,000 Romania 100,000 100 000 Vietnam 50,000 0 New Jobs Created 4
  5. 5. Top 5 Global Destination Cities - 2008 p 25 350 20 300 15 Dubai 250 Dubai London 10 London Shanghai 200 Shanghai 5 Tunis Beijing 0 150 Bucharest Paris Capex ($bn) 100 100,000 100 000 50 80,000 0 Bucharest No of Projects 60,000 Dubai 40,000 Shanghai Moscow 20,000 St. Petersburg 0 New Jobs Created 5
  6. 6. Top 5 Destination Countries in the Eastern part of Europe - 2008 600 Russia 100 Russia 400 Poland Romania 50 200 Romania Poland 0 Turkey 0 Turkey No of Projects Hungary Capex ($bn) Bulgaria 300,000 Russia 200,000 200 000 Romania 100,000 Poland 0 New Jobs Turkey Created Bulgaria 6
  7. 7. Top 5 Destination Cities in the Eastern part of Europe - 2008 150 15 Moscow Bucharest 100 Bucharest 10 St. Petersburg St. Petersburg 5 Moscow 50 Warsaw Gniew 0 Istanbul 0 Istanbul No of Projects Capex ($bn) 100,000 Bucharest 50,000 Moscow St. Petersburg 0 Warsaw New Jobs Istanbul Created 7
  8. 8. FDI INTO UKRAINE • 2008 performance: 123 projects, $6.73bn capex, 578 jobs • Marginal increase over 2007 by project numbers and capex, but significant decrease in # of new jobs created • Top investors 2003-2009: Metro (Germany), PKO Bank Polski (Poland), RZB (Austria), Lukoil (Russia), UniCredit (Italy) and VS Energy International (Netherlands) • Leading sector since 2003: financial services (16% of p j projects)) • Leading business activity: manufacturing (24%) • Top source markets: Russia, Germany and US 8
  9. 9. UKRAINE: GROWTH AREAS • Fastest growing sector is real estate (by # of projects): 123% growth p.a. on average • Other growth sectors: hotels/tourism (+83%), food and ( 83%), tobacco (28%), financial services (26%), consumer goods (23%) and communications (23%), • Fastest growing business activity is logistics, distribution and transportation: 91% growth p.a. • Other growth activities: sales, marketing and support (71%), construction (63%) and business services (28%) • M Manufacturing saw decline of avg 5% year on year f t i d li f 9
  10. 10. GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR 2009 • Decline of 13% predicted in the number of greenfield FDI projects in 2009 • Greenfield investment in developed economies expected to fall significantly more than this • Investment in developing economies expected to achieve p g p similar levels to 2008 • Recession brings a shift in focus for FDI flows • Key trends: shifts to developing countries and rapidly urbanising cities, and to services and enviro tech sectors 10
  11. 11. SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT High risk Medium risk Low risk •Construction •Power equipment •Low-carbon sector •Real estate •Aircraft manufacture •Health services** •Financial services •International tourism •Social services •Building materials g •Accounting g •Education •Architecture •Media •Food & agriculture •Engineering services •Consulting and PR •Domestic tourism •Wood products •Software & ITIT* •Internet retailers •Motor-vehicle retail •Retailing (non-food) •Mobile telecoms •Consumer goods •Tobacco manufacture •R&D and testing •Personal services P l i *ERP, CRM, open source, ITO resilient. •Utilities Utiliti Other areas may decline •Auto manufacturing •Defence •Hardware/electronics •Pharma •Apparel manufacture •Energy & mining •Chemicals •Transportation Source: fDi Intelligence from the Financial Times Ltd **growth expected 11
  12. 12. fDi INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY Where companies plan to increase investments in 2009: • Asia is the top region, with more than a third of companies surveyed planning to increase investments there • Second is Europe, where more than a quarter plan to increase investments est e ts • North America, Latin America and Middle East followed, with just under a quarter of companies planning to expand in these markets • Africa i h fourth region li d ( 10%) Af i is the f h i listed (< 12
  13. 13. INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY Which business functions anticipated investments will involve: p • The two most commonly cited were R&D and sales, marketing and support (tied) with nearly a quarter of companies planning to expand these functions • Second was manufacturing (roughly 15%) • Followed b (i order of i F ll d by (in d f importance): t ) - Logistics, distribution and transportation; business services (tied) - Design, development and testing g , p g - Construction; electricity; and maintenance and servicing (tied) 13
  14. 14. For more information, please contact: p Courtney Fingar Editor fDi Magazine Tel: (+44)(0)20 7775 6365 Email: Courtney.Fingar@FT.com www.fdimagazine.com Inna Schlepina Business Development Manager fDi Intelligence Tel: +44 (0) 207 775 6014 Email: Inna Schlepina@FT com Inna.Schlepina@FT.com www.fdiintelligence.com 14

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