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March 03 decision making

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March 03 decision making

1. 1. Decision Making<br />
2. 2. Definition<br />standards<br />the levels of acceptability we live with<br />what we feel is ok, and what we feel is not<br />What are your standards for cleanliness in your room?<br />What are your standards for intelligence in a boyfriend / girlfriend?<br />
3. 3. The Decision Making Process<br />Identify the problem.<br />Consider results for success.<br />Identify alternative action plans.<br />Predict consequences.<br />Estimate the probability of consequences.<br />Choose the best action plan.<br />Finish your plan and DO IT!<br />Evaluate Results<br />
4. 4. 1. Identify the Problem<br />Why must we make a decision?<br />Make the problem clear.<br />Try to state the problem as a goal.<br />(leads to step 2)<br />
5. 5. 2. Consider Results for Success<br />What must change to eliminate the problem?<br />be clear and specific (as much as possible)<br />be measurable<br />
6. 6. 3. Identify alternative actions<br />there is more than one way solve most problems<br />make a list of all the possible actions that will help<br />
7. 7. 4. Predict Consequences<br />For each possible action:<br />what do you think will happen?<br />think of positive and negative results<br />which has the most positives?<br />
8. 8. 5. Estimate probability of each consequence<br />Is it for sure that all of the consequences will happen?<br />if not, then guess, are they:<br />likely / probable? (50 – 100%)<br />maybe? (~50%)<br />not likely / not probable? (0-50%)<br />
9. 9. 6. Choose the best plan of action<br />Think about:<br />consequences / possibilities (positive and negative)<br />your values<br />your goals<br />your standards<br />Choose the plan that agrees with you most when thinking about all these things<br />Sometimes we must choose difficult options<br />
10. 10. 7. Finish your plan and… DO IT!!<br />Before acting, imagine each action you will take<br />think of any obstacles you might have<br />think of actions to avoid or manage the obstacles<br />DO IT!!<br />do all the actions in your plan with the goal of eliminating the problem<br />
11. 11. 8. Evaluate Results<br />Did you eliminate the problem?<br />Is everything perfect now? OR<br />Did you think it would be different?<br />Could you have done better?<br />Do you think your guesses (estimates, assumptions) were:<br />Correct?<br />Incorrect?<br />“I know now that…. so, next time I will….”<br />
12. 12. Application<br />Read Page 56 “CASE STUDY”<br />Answer question 1-4 with partner.<br />
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