BSidesLV Vulnerability & Exploit Trends

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A deep dive inside the data.

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BSidesLV Vulnerability & Exploit Trends

  1. 1. Vulnerability & Exploit Trends: A Deep Look Inside the Data BSides Las Vegas Ed Bellis & Michael Roytman
  2. 2. Nice To Meet You • CoFounder Risk I/O About Us About Risk I/O • Former CISO Orbitz • Contributing Author: Beautiful Security • CSO Magazine/Online Writer • Data-Driven Vulnerability Intelligence Platform • DataWeek 2012 Top Security Innovator • 3 Startups to Watch - Information Week • InfoSec Island Blogger • 16 Hot Startups - eWeek Ed Bellis • Naive Grad Student • Still Plays With Legos • Barely Passed Regression Analysis • Once Jailbroke His iPhone 3G • Has Coolest Job In InfoSec Michael Roytman
  3. 3. Starting From Scratch Academia! • GScholar! • JSTOR! • IEEE! • ProQuest! InfoSec Blogs! • CSIOs! • Pen Testers! • Threat Reports! • SOTI/DBIR! ! Twitter! • Thought Leaders (you know who you are)! • BlackHats! • Vuln Researchers! Primary Sources! • MITRE! • OSVDB! • NIST CVSS Committee(s)! • Internal Message Boards for ^! Text CISOs
  4. 4. #DoingItWrong Data Fundamentalism Don’t Ignore What a Vuln Is: Creation Bias (http://blog.risk.io/2013/04/data-fundamentalism/) <Shameless(ful) Self-Promotion Jerico/Sushidude @ BlackHat (https://www.blackhat.com/us-13/briefings.html#Martin) Luca Allodi (https://securitylab.disi.unitn.it/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=seminar-unimi-apr-13.pdf): Protip: http://disi.unitn.it/~allodi/allodi-12-badgers.pdf
  5. 5. #DoingItWrong ”Since 2006 Vulnerabilities have declined by 26 percent.” ! -http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/rbac/documents/vulnerability-trends10.pdf “The total number of vulnerabilities in 2013 is up 16 percent so far when compared to what we saw in the same time period in 2012. ” -http://www.symantec.com/content/en/us/enterprise/other_resources/b-intelligence_report_06-2013.en-us.pdf
  6. 6. What’s Good? Bad For Vulnerability Statistics: NVD, OSVDB, ExploitDB, CVSS, Patches, Microsoft Reports, etc, et al, and so on. Good For Vulnerability Statistics: Vulnerabilities.
  7. 7. Adding Some Flavor
  8. 8. Defend Like You’ve Done It Before
  9. 9. Counterterrorism Known Groups Surveillance Threat Intel, Analysts Targets, Layouts Past Incidents, Close Calls
  10. 10. Uh, Sports? Opposing Teams, Specific Players Gameplay Scouting Reports, Gametape Roster, Player Skills Learning from Losing
  11. 11. InfoSec?
  12. 12. What It Should Be Groups, Motivations Exploits Vulnerability Definitions Asset Topology, Actual Vulns on System Learning from Breaches
  13. 13. Work With What You’ve Got: Akamai, Safenet ExploitDB, Metasploit NVD, MITRE
  14. 14. Show Me The Money 23,000,000 Vulnerabilities! Across 1,000,000 Assets! Representing 9,500 Companies! Using 22 Unique Scanners!
  15. 15. Whatchu Know About Data? Duplication Vulnerability Density Remediation
  16. 16. Duplication 0 225,000 450,000 675,000 900,000 1,125,000 1,350,000 1,575,000 1,800,000 2,025,000 2,250,000 2 or more scanners 3 or more 4 or more 5 or more 6 or more
  17. 17. Duplication - Lessons From a CISO We Have: F(Number of Scanners) => Number of Duplicate Vulnerabilities We Want: F(Number of Scanners) => Vulnerability Coverage Make Decisions At The Margins! <---------Good Luck! 0 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
  18. 18. Density Type of Asset ~Count Hostname 20,000 Netbios 1000 IP Address 200,000 File 10,000 Url 5,000 Hostname Netbios IP File Url 0 22.5 45.0 67.5 90.0
  19. 19. CVSS And Remediation Metrics 0 375.0 750.0 1125.0 1500.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Time To Close By Severity OldestVulnerability By Severity
  20. 20. CVSS And Remediation - Lessons From A CISO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Remediation/Lack Thereof, by CVSS NVD Distribution by CVSS
  21. 21. The Kicker - Live Breach Data 1,500,000 ! Vulnerabilities Related to Live Breaches Recorded! June, July 2013 !
  22. 22. CVSS And Remediation - Nope 0 1750.0 3500.0 5250.0 7000.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Oldest BreachedVulnerability By Severity
  23. 23. CVSS - A VERY General Guide For Remediation - Yep 0 37500.0 75000.0 112500.0 150000.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 OpenVulns With Breaches Occuring By Severity
  24. 24. The One Billion Dollar Question Probability(You Will Be Breached On A Particular Open Vulnerability)? 1.98% =(Open Vulnerabilities | Breaches Occurred On Their CVE)/(Total Open Vulnerabilities)
  25. 25. I Love It When You Call Me Big Data RANDOMVULN CVSS 10 CVSS 9 CVSS 8 CVSS 6 CVSS 7 CVSS 5 CVSS 4 0 0.01000 0.02000 0.03000 0.04000 Probability AVulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
  26. 26. Enter The Security Mendoza Line Wouldn’t it be nice if we had something that helped us divide who we considered “Amateur” and who we considered “Professional”? http://riskmanagementinsight.com/riskanalysis/? p=294 Josh Corman expands the Security Mendoza Line “Compute power grows at the rate of doubling about every 2 years” “Casual attacker power grows at the rate of Metasploit” http://blog.cognitivedissidents.com/2011/11/01/intro- to-hdmoores-law/ Alex Hutton comes up with Security Mendoza Line
  27. 27. I Love It When You Call Me Big Data RandomVuln CVSS 10 Exploit DB Metasploit MSP+EDB 0 0.08 0.15 0.23 0.30 Probability AVulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches
  28. 28. I Love It When You Call Me Big Data P(Breaches Observed On That Vuln | Random Vuln) 1.98%
  29. 29. Thank You Follow Us Blog: http://blog.risk.io Twitter: @mroytman @ebellis @riskio We’re Hiring! http://www.risk.io/jobs

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