The Facebook Face-off - An Empirical Analysis by Human ...

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  • This is a fall of 23% which can only partly be explained by the increase in total time spent online (which fell by 11% over the same period)

Transcript

  • 1.  
  • 2. Who we are
  • 3. What we plan to discuss today Provide an empirical backbone to support the rest of the day Understand who uses Facebook, and how this has changed over time Consider how Facebook differs from rival “networking” services Assess whether empirical evidence supports many of the frequently asserted hypotheses Young under graduates Female Most popular ‘ Stealing’ share from other sites Affluent Losing its novelty    
  • 4. Our data comes from Nielsen//Netratings Nielsen//Netrating’s ‘Netview’ service Panel based data Approximately 40,000 panelists Directional not absolute UK only        
  • 5. Facebook’s reach has grown by over 1800% over the last year Monthly unique audience [000s] 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Sep 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Facebook ‘reach’ is now 23% of the active UK internet population Between February and August, reach grew by over 20% each month – in September this slowed to 15%
    • Over the same time, overall internet ‘reach’ has only grown by 11%
  • 6. Based on number of unique users, it is the 13 th most popular site in the UK Site Unique users (Sep 07) Active reach 27.9m 84% 22.3m 67% 16.4m 50% 16.4m 50% 14.7m 44% 10.3m 31% 10.0m 30% 9.4m 28% 9.4m 28% 8.8m 26% 8.7m 26% 8.6m 26% 7.5m 23% Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
    • However, Facebook is still not ‘mainstream’ - 77% of the active UK internet population did not visit the site in September
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
  • 7. However, based on web pages viewed, it is the 3 rd most popular site Site Total page views (millions) Page views/ person 3,956 142 3,500 240 3,243 434 2,281 122 2,071 130 1,619 262 1,521 347 1,386 85 723 77
    • Facebook has the 11th highest average page views per user – the highest excluding gaming, gambling and adult sites
    • This clearly has significant implications for a predominantly display advertising funded site
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
  • 8. Hypothesis 1: Facebook is used predominantly by young undergraduates
  • 9. The majority of usage growth has been for 25 to 34 year olds % of pages viewed by age group 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Aug 06 Sep 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 65+ 50-64 35-49 25-34 18-24 2-17
    • In August 2006, 18-24 year olds were responsible for over 80% of page views
    • In August 2007, they were responsible for 24%
    • In August 2006, under 1% of all page views were by 25-34 year olds
    • In August 2007, they were responsible for 52%
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings
  • 10. The average age of a Facebook user (weighted by reach) is now almost 34 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Average audience age (by reach) Weighted by reach Weighted by usage Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
  • 11. However, Facebook’s audience is still younger than all other top 20 UK sites (ranked by reach), bar Myspace and YouTube Google Microsoft Yahoo! BBC eBay Amazon Apple Wikipedia YouTube Real Network AOL Media Network Ask Search Network Myspace.com Lycos Europe PayPal Virgin Media Multimap.com Tesco BSkyB 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 Average age (ranked by usage) Average age (ranked by reach) Used disproportionately more by younger audiences
    • NB: Bubble size represents unique audience size (Sept 2007)
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
  • 12. Hypothesis 2: Facebook use is driven by females
  • 13. Facebook has a disproportionately high female skew, although there are significant gender skews amongst most networking sites 6% more female 22% more female Composition Index by reach Composition Index by usage Male Female Male Female Site Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007 Google Microsoft Yahoo! BBC eBay Amazon Apple Wikipedia YouTube Real Network AOL Media Network Ask Search Network Facebook Myspace.com Lycos Europe PayPal Virgin Media Multimap.com Tesco BSkyB bebo Friends Reunited FaceParty Hi5 Linkedin
  • 14. And young females in particular demonstrate heavy usage Female 65+ Female 50 - 64 Female 35 - 49 Female 25 - 34 Female 18 - 24 Female 12 - 17 Male 65+ Male 50 - 64 Male 35 - 49 Male 25 - 34 Male 18 - 24 Male 12 - 17 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Average Page Views Per Month Number of unique users (millions) Young females use the site disproportionately more than their male counterparts Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
  • 15. Hypothesis 3: Facebook is the most popular networking site
  • 16. Based on ‘reach’, Facebook is now clearly the most popular ‘networking’ site Monthly unique users [000s] 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07
    • Facebook became the most popular networking site by ‘reach’ in August 2007
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings
  • 17. However, based on usage - page views and total time spent - Facebook became the most popular ‘networking’ site much earlier 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Total number of page views (millions) Nov 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Total number of minutes online (millions) Facebook became the most popular networking site by total usage in June 2007
    • In September 2007, Facebook had more page views and number of minutes spent online than Myspace and Bebo combined
    Page Views Time Spent Source: Nielsen//Netratings
  • 18. Facebook is the most popular ‘networking’ site for all groups, except the very young, and middle aged men, where Myspace is still incumbent 67 49 17 F 65+ 349 438 199 F 50-64 804 971 549 F 35-49 733 1275 325 F 25-34 757 1000 400 F 18-24 469 163 717 F 2-17 106 131 76 M 65+ 504 662 330 M 50-64 867 800 474 M 35-49 616 998 210 M 25-34 726 879 520 M 18-24 509 199 733 M 2-17 Myspace Facebook Bebo Reach (unique audience in Sept 2007, 000s) 5 13 2 F 65+ 19 55 44 F 50-64 139 275 224 F 35-49 135 979 106 F 25-34 220 570 191 F 18-24 132 16 311 F 2-17 6 51 20 M 65+ 33 155 73 M 50-64 493 349 152 M 35-49 187 433 58 M 25-34 179 339 180 M 18-24 101 34 210 M 2-17 Myspace Facebook Bebo Usage (page views per month in Sept 2007, ms) Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
  • 19. Hypothesis 4: Facebook is ‘stealing’ share from other social networking sites
  • 20. Users of other ‘networking’ sites are more likely to visit Facebook than the wider internet audience 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Monthly audience who also visited Facebook (%) Total active internet In September 2007, 23% of the active UK internet audience visited Facebook, compared to 64% of the active LinkedIn audience Source: Nielsen//Netratings
  • 21. The proportion of Facebook users who visit other ‘networking’ sites has broadly fallen over time, and Myspace has arguably been worst hit 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Facebook audience who visited other networking sites (%)
    • This suggests that new users are going straight to Facebook and not to ‘networking’ sites in general.
    • This fall in overlap could also include some substitution from Myspace to Facebook
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings
  • 22. Whilst the majority of growth has been additive rather than substitutional, in recent months there has been a relative fall in the proportion of time spent on Myspace and bebo 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 % of time online by all users
    • 6.6% of all time spent online is spent on the 6 social networking sites
    • The proportion of total time Myspace spent has fallen from 2.1% in April to 1.6% in September
    • The hypothesis may be true
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings
    • Time spent on Bebo has also fallen
  • 23. Hypothesis 5: Facebook is one of the most upmarket social networking sites
  • 24. Facebook has a higher proportion of more affluent households than Myspace, bebo, Hi5 and Faceparty, but not notably moreso than for the top 20 sites 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 Proportion of users with household income > £30k Proportion of users aged > 35 Google Microsoft Yahoo! BBC eBay Amazon Apple Wikipedia YouTube Real Network AOL Media Network Ask Search Network Myspace.com Lycos Europe PayPal Virgin Media Multimap.com Tesco BSkyB bebo Friends Reunited FaceParty Hi5 Linkedin
    • LinkedIn has, unsurprisingly, a much older and more affluent audience
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings
  • 25. This has risen marginally over time, higher than the rate of inflation, and considerably more than Myspace 31,000 32,000 33,000 34,000 35,000 36,000 37,000 38,000 39,000 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Average household income (£)
    • Facebook’s audience has been consistently more ‘affluent’ than Myspace
    • This is perhaps not surprising – over time, Facebook use has grown considerably ‘older’ over time from a comparatively small student-centric core
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings
  • 26. Hypothesis 6: Early adopters are ‘getting bored’ of Facebook
  • 27. The 18-24 age group represent the ‘early adopters’ of Facebook – page views per user from this group have fallen by 43% since March 2007 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Monthly page views per 18-24 year old user
    • Facebook page views per month of the 18-24 year old audience have fallen from almost 850 to 487
    • Myspace page views per person have fallen by 33% between March and August
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings
    • Although this may partly be explained by seasonality
  • 28. However, the next adopters – the 25 to 34 year olds – are continuing to use Facebook more and more 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Monthly page views per 25-34 year old user
    • Page views per 25-34 year old user grew to over 700 in Aug 07
    • Page views per 25-34 year old Myspace user, however fell by 46% from March to August
    Source: Nielsen//Netratings
  • 29. This suggests there is a ‘life cycle’ in Facebook use
    • Usage by age group grows to an extremely high level (700-800+ page views per person per month)
    • The experience of 18-24 year old users, however, suggest that over time, this will fall significantly – by as much as 50%
      • The initial novelty wears off
      • There are fewer new friends to add (or poke!)
      • Use becomes increasingly functional
    • It is likely that usage patterns for 25-34 year olds will follow a similar trend as their Facebook usage matures
    • Myspace, however, is clearly very different
  • 30. Some final thoughts
  • 31. Some final thoughts Reach and use of Facebook has grown extraordinarily over the last year Facebook is now the UK’s 3rd most popular site based on page views – more than Yahoo, Microsoft and Amazon It is clearly the most popular networking sites in all cases, except the very young (where Bebo rules) and middle-aged men (who still prefer Myspace) Usage of Facebook is heavily skewed towards younger females The data suggests that there may well be a ‘life cycle’ of Facebook use     
  • 32.  
  • 33. About us Human Capital are a strategic consultancy and research company We work primarily for media, technology and telecommunications clients Recent clients include the BBC, IPC Media, The Open University, Johnston Press, UK TV, Ofcom, News International and lastminute.com
    • For more information, please contact:
      • [email_address]
      • [email_address]
      • Or through www.humancapital.co.uk
       