Evan baechler tweets & stocks

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Using Twitter to gauge market sentiment and improve short-term stock trading decisions

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
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  • With only 140 characters, people hit the key b/c they can’t beat around the bush.
  • If Apple is going to struggle after leadership transition, it’s balance sheet and bottom line probably would not reflect it this close to Steve Job’s death. If people continuing to post about leadership concerns at AAPL and AAPL’s performance begins declining, then I’d sell.
  • Evan baechler tweets & stocks

    1. 1. Tweets & Stocks Evan Baechler
    2. 2. What is twitter? A digital medium to share & consume info: •Content (pics, vids, links, articles) •Ideas •Opinions •Statuses “Micro-blogging”
    3. 3. A bit about stock value Value derived from perceived performance of Companies •Quantitative oPublically available fin. info / analysis •Qualitative oviews / attitudes toward situations / events oSentiment Market of information!
    4. 4. Twitter #sentiment Natural Language Processing How Twitter can help traders better understand opinion trends related to companies
    5. 5. #tagclouds / Persistent Search HootSuite | TweetDeck Gives Sentiment Context: Sentiment relative to defined term(s) Other terms associated with defined term(s)
    6. 6. Wall Street Birds aggregates twitter sentiment to predict future stock performance Claim 87% accuracy Bollen, Mao, Zen: “Twitter mood predicts the stock market” Decision making tied to emotion & perception  Twitter Sentiment predicts emotion & perception  Twitter sentiment can predict future stock performance. Build by Modulus Informatics, Inc. in Scottsdale, AZ
    7. 7. Check out how I'm monitoring $AAPL stock using global twitter sentiment http://ow.ly/7wi6v #CashMoney
    8. 8. I’m Skepitcal… Natural Language Processing largely English only. Hard to analyze: •sarcasm •words with multiple meanings •Vernacular / slang •Short-hand My $AAPL stock is killin' it! F**ing Dyin’ of Happiness! #Thatswassup
    9. 9. So I did my own analysis… Sunday 11/20/11 @ 5:00pm PST 1-day price % ∆ P/E Div. Yield Price to Book Net profit Margin EPS ROE -1.16% 16.07 3.42 4.14 10.82% 27.68 13.79 1-day price % ∆ P/E Div. Yield Price to Book Net profit Margin EPS ROE -0.65% 13.55 NA 4.58 23.95% 27.68 41.67 Technology Industry Apple Inc. $10B in cash and $27B in short-term debt.
    10. 10. Apple Tag Cloud Apple Inc. Tag Cloud
    11. 11. Conclusion AAPL stock is, by definition, ‘bearish’ (downward moving) AND Sentiment about AAPL shows concern after Steve Job’s death BUT Product interest seems high, esp. regarding Black Friday, and AAPL is beating industry avg. I would hold stock and monitor AAPL’s performance and sentiment closely going forward
    12. 12. Stock Twits – social media, trader community • Trending stock symbols, twitter streams, chart-sharing Vid: UK Hedge Fund uses Twitter to Monitor Market Movements Hedge Funds Ignore Social Media - Survey Additional Resources

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