Teri Eastburn, eastburn@ucar.edu
Lisa Gardiner, lisagard@ucar.eduWelcome!
Workshop Website & Activities: spark.ucar.edu/ev...
What do you know and
want to know & learn
about climate change?
A review of our KWL Chart,
Climate Survey
•  To address your needs
•  To foster confidence
•  To present meaningful classroom-ready activities
•  To foster helpful ...
What are UCAR and NCAR?
Today’s Agenda
Part 1:The Earth System; Energy
Atmosphere
Lithosphere
CryosphereHydrosphere
The Nature of the Sun’s Energy
Meet the Photon Folks
Absorption, Reflection ,Transmission
Source:
Living with a Star, NASA
Our Atmospheric Filter
Wave Demo Activity
More than your Eyes can See
Source: NASA, Spitzer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2--0q0XlQJ0
The Keeling Curve --increasing
CO2 levels leading to an
enhanced Greenhouse Effect
2006 Ozone Hole
Feeling the Heat, Part 1
Students investigate how trees, grass,
asphalt, etc. affect temperature
Coolest
Warm
Feeling the Heat, Part 2:
Investigating the history of heat waves and temperature in Los
Angeles, CAStand in a group of 10...
Reasons for patterns
The highest temperatures are found in the most dense part of a
city. That’s the urban heat island eff...
Los Angeles, CA in 1877. East LA is on the left and West LA is
on the right. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress))
Los Angeles, CA in 1909. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress)
Los Angeles, CA in 2002. This 3-D perspective view was generated
using topographic data and an enhanced color Landsat 5 sa...
This graph shows
the number of
heat waves in
Los Angeles, CA
over the past
century. Do you
see a pattern?
How have heat
wa...
This graph shows
the duration of
heat waves in Los
Angeles, CA
(measured in
days.) Has there
been a change
through time?
(...
How has the temperature in Los Angeles changed over time? This
graph shows the average temperature for each year. See a pa...
Warmer city temperatures are partially due to global warming.
This graph shows how Earth’s average temperature has changed.
System for Integrated Modeling of
Metropolitan Extreme Heat Risk (SIMMER)
NCAR scientists are building a tool for
public h...
Part II: Weather vs Climate
High and low temperatures
Houston,TX
July 1-20, 2013
Weather & Climate Graphing Pg. 37
Houston,TX
Weather & Weather in the News
Pg. 19
Get the Picture? Activity Pg. 23
Heat waves are increasing: an example
Is it global warming, or is it natural variability?
These are not the right question...
Part III: Climate Now, Cycles
The Nitrogen Cycle Game pg. 41
The Carbon Journey
pg. 49, Source: NOAA
150 0.045±0.012
100 0.074±0.018
50 0.128±0.026
25 0.177±0.052
Period Rate
Years °/decade
Trenberth
Global mean temperature...
The “Other” CO2 Problem
CO2 How Much Do You Spew? Pg. 63
CO2: How Much Do You Spew? Directions:
• Each group has a card profiling a hypothetical family or individual.
• Families/i...
Answer Key for CO2: How Much Do You Spew
1.  What activities emitted the most CO2 for the family you examined?
2.  Could t...
Photo by Water Partners International
What are basic human needs?
Select items to purchase with your
global dollars using ...
Glaciers Then and Now, Muir Glacier (Pg. 85)
Glacier Bay National Park,Alaska
1941
2004
Photos courtesy of NSIDC
Visible I...
1906
2004
Photos courtesy of USGSCarroll Glacier
Glacier Bay National Park,Alaska
Model a Moving Glacier: Glacier a Go-Go
Adapted by an activity by Leigh Sterns, University of Maine
The objective of this ...
Variables to Study
PVC pipe lined with
aluminum foil and
lubricated with oil
Lubricated Bed
PVC pipeNormal Bed
PVC pipe li...
Lab Setup
basic setup
advanced setup
Source: Leigh Sterns, University of Maine
“Flubber” Recipe
1.  Decide on one of the variables to study.
2.  Make a hypothesis (e.g. the steeper the slope, the faste...
2012 record minimum: 3.41 mil sq km
2007 record minimum: 4.13 million square km
Currently loosing Arctic Sea Ice
at a rate...
Why Does Albedo Matter?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoBTuYium6w
Model Projections of Future Arctic
Summer Sea Ice Minimums
Under Business as Usual Future
http://www.ucar.edu/news/release...
Hurricanes and Climate Pg. 97
Students investigate
maps and data to
learn about the
connections
between hurricanes
and cli...
Where do hurricanes happen?
The map shows the paths of all tropical cyclones that occurred between
1985 and 2005. (Wikiped...
Hurricanes happen where water is warm
Temperature of the ocean surface (“sea surface temperature” or SST). Data
from GOES ...
Warm water gives a hurricane power…
To grow in strength, a
hurricane needs:
•  Warm, moist air (moisture
for rainstorms)
•...
From Webster et al (2005)
Large Increase in Number of
Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes
A Conversation: Climate & Human Health
Section 5: Social and Political Connections
For more info: https://spark.ucar.edu/l...
.
Since 2010
Great Strides
What led to acceptance of climate change?
•  Hurricane Sandy
•  Increasing media coverage affirming climate change
•  Midw...
Comment from a Teacher
“There was one parent who said he had a PhD in
entomology and said that he thinks global climate
ch...
Comment from Respondent
“There was one parent who said he had a PhD in
entomology and said that he thinks global climate
c...
“I teach in a very conservative area
and many of my high school
students say things to me like, "My
parents don't believe ...
Whose Side AreYou On?
Climate Change 101
TEACH THESE 5 KEY POINTS
It is real NOW
It is BAD for us
It is HUMAN-CAUSED
We can SOLVE IT if we choos...
Frame and Build Trust
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4q4OHQJ0_gQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlQc9Kj15NM&list=PLB191F5DA17C6E638
Frame and Build Trust
Repower
America
Ad
From Istockphoto.com
S O L U T I O N S
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
www.ipcc.ch
5th Assessment
Report coming
soon!
IPCC Future Scenarios
http://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/IPCC_CCSM3/
Imagine A World: 2100 Pg.112
Summary for Educators
coming soon!
Stabilization Wedges Game
2 2 = 4 billion tons go out
Ocean Land Biosphere (net)
Fossil Fuel
Burning
+
8
800
billion tons carbon
4
billion
tons go i...
Billions ofTons
Carbon Emitted
perYear
Historical
emissions
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Historical Emissions
1.6
Interim Goal
Billions ofTons
Carbon Emitted
perYear
Historical
emissions Flat path
Stabilization
Triangle
0
8
16
1950 ...
1.6
Interim Goal
Billions ofTons
Carbon Emitted
perYear
Historical
emissions Flat path
Stabilization
Triangle
0
8
16
1950 ...
What is a “Wedge”?
A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows
in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr.The s...
http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/pdfs/teachers_guide.pdf
You can find more info
about each of the 15
wedge areas in the
tea...
#1: Who might support these
scenarios of ways to reduce?
•  auto efficiency
•  conservation in transportation
•  building ...
Who?
•  CO2 Storage electricity
•  fuel switching electricity (natural gas for coal)
•  fuel switching electricity
•  nucl...
Who?
•  - fuel switching electricity
•  - fuel switching electricity
•  - fuel switching electricity
•  - efficiency trans...
Take Home Messages from Activity
•  In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we
need to rapidly deploy low-carbon ...
Thank you for joining us today.
Help us continually improve this
workshop by completing your
survey before you leave.
Teri...
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
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2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health

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2013 workshop, Climate Change Connections to Our Weather, Environment, & Health at the 13th Annual K12 Summer Institute sponsored by Texas A&M in Houston.

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  • Lisa
  • Lisa
  • Lisa: REMOVE????
  • Teri
  • Teri: overview of climate pastMention Tree Ring activities; proxy record activities; and Climate Discovery Booklet for paleo activities
  • Click to start animation
  • Teri: NCAR modelers find risk of collapse in summer Arctic ice as soon as the 2020s
  • Lisa
  • Lisa
  • Lisa
  • Lisa
  • Lisa
  • Lisa
  • Lisa
  • Data on personal outlook and relevant to one’s life now…
  • Proof is in the pudding
  • TERI
  • Energy Company
  • environ
  • us
  • Global Connectiions Game
  • 2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health

    1. 1. Teri Eastburn, eastburn@ucar.edu Lisa Gardiner, lisagard@ucar.eduWelcome! Workshop Website & Activities: spark.ucar.edu/events/climate-change-connections-2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, & Health
    2. 2. What do you know and want to know & learn about climate change? A review of our KWL Chart, Climate Survey
    3. 3. •  To address your needs •  To foster confidence •  To present meaningful classroom-ready activities •  To foster helpful discussions •  To have fun and learn from one another Our Goals for Today
    4. 4. What are UCAR and NCAR?
    5. 5. Today’s Agenda
    6. 6. Part 1:The Earth System; Energy Atmosphere Lithosphere CryosphereHydrosphere
    7. 7. The Nature of the Sun’s Energy Meet the Photon Folks Absorption, Reflection ,Transmission
    8. 8. Source: Living with a Star, NASA
    9. 9. Our Atmospheric Filter
    10. 10. Wave Demo Activity
    11. 11. More than your Eyes can See Source: NASA, Spitzer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2--0q0XlQJ0
    12. 12. The Keeling Curve --increasing CO2 levels leading to an enhanced Greenhouse Effect 2006 Ozone Hole
    13. 13. Feeling the Heat Students learn about the urban heat island effect by investigating which areas of their schoolyard have higher temperatures. Then they analyze data about how the number of heat waves in an urban area has increased over time with population. NYC, 8/14/02:Temp and vegetation Pg. 19 Pg. 9
    14. 14. Feeling the Heat, Part 1 Students investigate how trees, grass, asphalt, etc. affect temperature Coolest Warm
    15. 15. Feeling the Heat, Part 2: Investigating the history of heat waves and temperature in Los Angeles, CAStand in a group of 10 along the rope. Each person takes one LA Data Card. The Objective: Order yourselves by the data on the card keeping at least one foot on the rope at all times as you move past each other to get in order. 1.  Order yourselves by average temperature. 2.  Order yourselves by the number of heat waves.** 3.  Order yourselves by population. (**Note: there are two decades that have the same number of heat waves. The people with those cards can stand next to each other in any order.)
    16. 16. Reasons for patterns The highest temperatures are found in the most dense part of a city. That’s the urban heat island effect. The next 3 slides show how LA has changed over time. How do you think the heat island effect has changed as the city changed?
    17. 17. Los Angeles, CA in 1877. East LA is on the left and West LA is on the right. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress))
    18. 18. Los Angeles, CA in 1909. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress)
    19. 19. Los Angeles, CA in 2002. This 3-D perspective view was generated using topographic data and an enhanced color Landsat 5 satellite image mosaic. Topography is exaggerated one and one-half times. (Courtesy of NASA/JPL)
    20. 20. This graph shows the number of heat waves in Los Angeles, CA over the past century. Do you see a pattern? How have heat waves changed through time? (From Tamrazian et al., 2008) Looking for patterns
    21. 21. This graph shows the duration of heat waves in Los Angeles, CA (measured in days.) Has there been a change through time? (From Tamrazian et al., 2008) Looking for patterns
    22. 22. How has the temperature in Los Angeles changed over time? This graph shows the average temperature for each year. See a pattern? CourtesyofNOAA/NWS
    23. 23. Warmer city temperatures are partially due to global warming. This graph shows how Earth’s average temperature has changed.
    24. 24. System for Integrated Modeling of Metropolitan Extreme Heat Risk (SIMMER) NCAR scientists are building a tool for public health to use to assess the risk of extreme heat in Houston. •  Looking at the impact of urban extreme heat on human health •  Characterizing people’s vulnerability and the responses to heat •  Improving how urban land cover appears in GIS maps at local and regional scales •  Modeling present and future extreme heat events http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/simmer/
    25. 25. Part II: Weather vs Climate
    26. 26. High and low temperatures Houston,TX July 1-20, 2013
    27. 27. Weather & Climate Graphing Pg. 37 Houston,TX
    28. 28. Weather & Weather in the News Pg. 19
    29. 29. Get the Picture? Activity Pg. 23
    30. 30. Heat waves are increasing: an example Is it global warming, or is it natural variability? These are not the right questions: it is a combination of both. Source: Jim Hurrell, NCAR
    31. 31. Part III: Climate Now, Cycles
    32. 32. The Nitrogen Cycle Game pg. 41
    33. 33. The Carbon Journey pg. 49, Source: NOAA
    34. 34. 150 0.045±0.012 100 0.074±0.018 50 0.128±0.026 25 0.177±0.052 Period Rate Years °/decade Trenberth Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 2005,2010,1998,2003,2002,2006, 2009,2007,2004,2001,2011,2008
    35. 35. The “Other” CO2 Problem
    36. 36. CO2 How Much Do You Spew? Pg. 63
    37. 37. CO2: How Much Do You Spew? Directions: • Each group has a card profiling a hypothetical family or individual. • Families/individuals live in different situations & use energy in different ways. • Students use the worksheet to calculate a household’s CO2 emissions. Sample card CO2: How Much Do You Spew?
    38. 38. Answer Key for CO2: How Much Do You Spew 1.  What activities emitted the most CO2 for the family you examined? 2.  Could those activities be changed to emit less CO2? How? 3.  How would you change your scenario to reduce CO2?
    39. 39. Photo by Water Partners International What are basic human needs? Select items to purchase with your global dollars using the Choices and impacts worksheet An activity by Facing the Future, www.facingthefuture.org
    40. 40. Glaciers Then and Now, Muir Glacier (Pg. 85) Glacier Bay National Park,Alaska 1941 2004 Photos courtesy of NSIDC Visible Impacts
    41. 41. 1906 2004 Photos courtesy of USGSCarroll Glacier Glacier Bay National Park,Alaska
    42. 42. Model a Moving Glacier: Glacier a Go-Go Adapted by an activity by Leigh Sterns, University of Maine The objective of this lesson is to teach middle and high school students about variables that affect glacier flow over time: - valley slope - ice temperature - basal conditions (ground surface) - strain Pg. 91
    43. 43. Variables to Study PVC pipe lined with aluminum foil and lubricated with oil Lubricated Bed PVC pipeNormal Bed PVC pipe lined with sandpaper Rough Bed Basal Conditions 65°Steep 45°Medium 25°Shallow Valley Slope Flubber microwaved until hot to touch Warm Ice (pink flubber) Flubber at room temperature Normal Ice (white flubber) Flubber placed in the freezer prior to class Cold Ice (blue flubber) IceTemperature PVC pipe flubber vertical toothpicks Time 1: Time 2: Strain Grid
    44. 44. Lab Setup basic setup advanced setup Source: Leigh Sterns, University of Maine
    45. 45. “Flubber” Recipe 1.  Decide on one of the variables to study. 2.  Make a hypothesis (e.g. the steeper the slope, the faster the flow rate of a glacier.) 3.  Test your hypothesis and record and graph your results. 4.  Discuss results and how flubber is like and unlike a glacier. food coloring (optional) ½ cup warm water1 cup white glue (ex. Elmer’s) 2 tsp. of Borax¾ cup warm water Mix #2Mix #1
    46. 46. 2012 record minimum: 3.41 mil sq km 2007 record minimum: 4.13 million square km Currently loosing Arctic Sea Ice at a rate of 11% per decade
    47. 47. Why Does Albedo Matter?
    48. 48. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoBTuYium6w
    49. 49. Model Projections of Future Arctic Summer Sea Ice Minimums Under Business as Usual Future http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml
    50. 50. Hurricanes and Climate Pg. 97 Students investigate maps and data to learn about the connections between hurricanes and climate including: (1) regional climate conditions where hurricanes form, and (2) how global climate change may be affecting hurricanes. Courtesy of Kevin Trenberth
    51. 51. Where do hurricanes happen? The map shows the paths of all tropical cyclones that occurred between 1985 and 2005. (Wikipedia commons)
    52. 52. Hurricanes happen where water is warm Temperature of the ocean surface (“sea surface temperature” or SST). Data from GOES and POES satellites. (NOAA)
    53. 53. Warm water gives a hurricane power… To grow in strength, a hurricane needs: •  Warm, moist air (moisture for rainstorms) •  Winds that don't change direction with height •  Deep, warm ocean water (79°F or warmer)…As winds strengthen, more water evaporates, releasing energy stored in the warm seas.
    54. 54. Is global warming affecting hurricanes? Data fromWebster et al (2005) Science, 309, 1844-46. Not much change in the number of hurricanes over time. Strong hurricanes are more frequent now than they were a few decades ago.
    55. 55. From Webster et al (2005) Large Increase in Number of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes
    56. 56. A Conversation: Climate & Human Health Section 5: Social and Political Connections For more info: https://spark.ucar.edu/longcontent/climate-change-and-vector-borne-disease
    57. 57. A Conversation: Climate Communication
    58. 58. . Since 2010 Great Strides
    59. 59. What led to acceptance of climate change? •  Hurricane Sandy •  Increasing media coverage affirming climate change •  Midwest drought, summer 2012 •  Texas drought 2011; Fires across southwest & west •  All around increase in severe weather events •  Arctic sea ice retreat •  2012 hottest year on record in continental US…
    60. 60. Comment from a Teacher “There was one parent who said he had a PhD in entomology and said that he thinks global climate change is false. If I decided to teach this information to the students, he would come into the classroom and dispute it all in front of me. Instead of doing this, the school administration just suggested that I not teach the information. I really found it to be a shame because it's something that is often found in the media that many students are interested in and want to learn more about. I don't want to tell them one way or another, but they need to know the facts from both sides without bias.” Source: NESTA
    61. 61. Comment from Respondent “There was one parent who said he had a PhD in entomology and said that he thinks global climate change is false. If I decided to teach this information to the students, he would come into the classroom and dispute it all in front of me. Instead of doing this, the school administration just suggested that I not teach the information. I really found it to be a shame because it's something that is often found in the media that many students are interested in and want to learn more about. I don't want to tell them one way or another, but they need to know the facts from both sides without bias.” Source: NESTA
    62. 62. “I teach in a very conservative area and many of my high school students say things to me like, "My parents don't believe in global warming” Source: NESTA - NESTA teacher
    63. 63. Whose Side AreYou On?
    64. 64. Climate Change 101 TEACH THESE 5 KEY POINTS It is real NOW It is BAD for us It is HUMAN-CAUSED We can SOLVE IT if we choose to Climate SCIENTISTS AGREE that it’s happening This is what the scientific evidence supports
    65. 65. Frame and Build Trust http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4q4OHQJ0_gQ
    66. 66. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlQc9Kj15NM&list=PLB191F5DA17C6E638 Frame and Build Trust Repower America Ad
    67. 67. From Istockphoto.com S O L U T I O N S
    68. 68. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) www.ipcc.ch 5th Assessment Report coming soon!
    69. 69. IPCC Future Scenarios http://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/IPCC_CCSM3/
    70. 70. Imagine A World: 2100 Pg.112 Summary for Educators coming soon!
    71. 71. Stabilization Wedges Game
    72. 72. 2 2 = 4 billion tons go out Ocean Land Biosphere (net) Fossil Fuel Burning + 8 800 billion tons carbon 4 billion tons go in ATMOSPHERE billion tons added every year
    73. 73. Billions ofTons Carbon Emitted perYear Historical emissions 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 Historical Emissions
    74. 74. 1.6 Interim Goal Billions ofTons Carbon Emitted perYear Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 The StabilizationTriangle
    75. 75. 1.6 Interim Goal Billions ofTons Carbon Emitted perYear Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 The StabilizationTriangle ~850 ppm Easier CO2 target
    76. 76. 1.6 Billions ofTons Carbon Emitted perYear Historical emissions Flat path 0 8 16 1950 2000 2050 2100 Stabilization Wedges 16 GtC/y Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today
    77. 77. What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr.The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr 50 years Total = 25 Gigatons carbon Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years.This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
    78. 78. Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) CO2 Capture & Storage (3) Stabilization Triangle Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Forest and Soil Storage (2) Fuel Switching (1) 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Nuclear Fission (1) 2007 2057 8 GtC/y 16 GtC/y Triangle Stabilization
    79. 79. http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/pdfs/teachers_guide.pdf You can find more info about each of the 15 wedge areas in the teacher guide online.
    80. 80. #1: Who might support these scenarios of ways to reduce? •  auto efficiency •  conservation in transportation •  building efficiency •  electricity efficiency •  fuel switching electrics (natural gas vs coal) •  forest storage •  soil storage •  nuclear Possibly a taxpayer?
    81. 81. Who? •  CO2 Storage electricity •  fuel switching electricity (natural gas for coal) •  fuel switching electricity •  nuclear •  forest storage •  soil storage •  Increased efficiency electricity plants •  wind electricity A possible fossil fuel exec. ?
    82. 82. Who? •  efficiency transport •  conservation transport efficiency •  efficiency buildings •  efficiency electricity •  wind •  solar •  forest storage •  forest storage A possible environmentalist choice?
    83. 83. Who? •  - fuel switching electricity •  - fuel switching electricity •  - fuel switching electricity •  - efficiency transport •  - efficiency transport •  - efficiency transport •  - carbon Storage electricity •  - efficiency buildings A likely U.S. choice? – Many of these scenarios have been initiated or implemented.
    84. 84. Take Home Messages from Activity •  In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks •  We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions •  No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling •  Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs
    85. 85. Thank you for joining us today. Help us continually improve this workshop by completing your survey before you leave. Teri Eastburn eastburn@ucar.edu Lisa Gardiner lisagard@ucar.edu Workshop Website & Activities: spark.ucar.edu/events/climate-change-connections-2013

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