Q1 2009 Earning Report of Alliance Data Systems

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    Q1 2009 Earning Report of Alliance Data Systems - Presentation Transcript

    1. First Quarter Alliance Data Results NYSE: ADS April 22, 2009
    2. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 2 Agenda • First Quarter Results • Segment Results • Spotlight – Epsilon Marketing Services Bryan Kennedy, President of Epsilon • Second Quarter and Full-Year Outlook
    3. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 3 1st Quarter Consolidated Results Revenues - constant currency $518MM +4% - reported $480MM - 4% Adjusted EBITDA - constant currency $160MM - 2% - reported $152MM - 8% Cash EPS - constant currency $1.27 +27% - reported $1.19 +19%
    4. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 4 Loyalty Services Canada (constant currency) • Strongest 1st Quarter in its History • Revenues Grew 17%, Adjusted EBITDA Grew > 50% • Renewed Shell-Canada (Top 10 ADS; Top 5 Loyalty) and Goodyear-Canada • Miles Redeemed Grew 12% • Recession not changing behavior • Miles Issued Weak (-4%) • Weak quarters not unprecedented (2001, 2002, 2008) • Expect strong snapback by summer • New value-enhanced launches by sponsors • Gas price driven volume anniversaries Q3 • Home improvement category driven by tax changes • Outlook: Strong Results to Continue (FX anniversaries Q4)
    5. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 5 Epsilon Marketing Services • Q1 Relatively Flat Against Toughest 2008 Comp • 60% of Segment (Database, Analytics, Digital) Double-digit Growth • Dynamic & Perpetual Data Driven Services • $700B Shift to Accountable Marketing Programs • Shift to Email Marketing Solutions • 40% of Segment (Data, Agency) Negative, but Ramping • New Wins at Record Pace: • 5 Database/Analytics • 15 Digital • Q2: • Database, Analytics, Digital: Growth to Continue • Data, Agency: Returning to Growth • Full-Year Outlook: Tracking to 7% Top/Bottom Performance
    6. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 6 Epsilon Marketing Services • Strength of Epsilon’s Business Model • Demand for measurable, “accountable” marketing increases in a downturn • 3 Critical Ingredients: DATA – identify and understand customer behavior + STRATEGY – agency capabilities to design, analyze, measure & execute programs across channels + TECHNOLOGY – best-in-class assets & services to manage customer marketing programs and platforms ↓ = FULL SERVICE EXECUTION, FULLY INTEGRATED DELIVERY
    7. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 7 Private Label: Services and Credit • Services (Network, Customer Care, Marketing): Both Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Up • Credit: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Down • Combined: Adjusted EBITDA ↓ 20% ($25MM) ↑ 10% (v. 0% 2008) (+) Portfolio ↑ 3% (v. -3% 2008) Credit Sales Funding Costs Better Yields Stable Pipeline Strong/ Wins Included HSN, Haband, Springstone, and PacSun – (Renewal) ↑ 180 bps (8.8% v. 7% 2008) (–) Credit Losses I/O Growover $0 v. + $10MM 2008
    8. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 8 Private Label: Services & Credit • Outlook – Credit Losses 2007 2008 2009e • Avg. Unemployment Rate 4.7% 6.1% *8.5% } 110bps } 120bps } 100bps • Total Credit Losses 5.8% 7.3% 9.5% *(assumed unemployment trend 7.6% Jan; 9.5% Dec) • Outlook – • Q1 losses 8.8% • Q2 seasonality – losses ↑ 70bps v. Q1, then settle down • Funding saves to mitigate rise in losses • Credit Loss drag begins to narrow in back half of year • Full-year I/O growover drag ($30MM) to anniversary end Q4 ↓ • Summary: Front-half 2009 tough, back-half 2009 improving, 2010 Solid
    9. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 9 Balance Sheet ($MM) As of March 31, 2009 Cash and Cash Equivalents $322 Redemption Settlement Assets (Trust Cash) 514 Total Assets $4,500 Deferred Revenue $946 CD’s 933 Core Debt 1,631 Total Liabilities $4,086 Stockholders’ Equity $414 Key Metric: • Net Core Debt / LTM Op. EBITDA (Op. Cash Flow) approx. 2.0x
    10. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 10 Guidance Q2: Sequential Comparison to Q1 2009 • Private Label’s Weakest Quarter • 80% of Q1 → (18¢) Seasonality – lower finance income and higher credit losses • Lack of FX Benefit on Investments (4¢) • Positives: Epsilon, Buyback ↓ Q1: Actual $1.19 • Q2: Private Label Seasonality ($.18) • Q2: No FX Benefit on Investments (0.04) • Q2: Epsilon, Buyback 0.08 • • Q2 Outlook $1.05 (constant currency $1.18) Full-Year Outlook • Maintain Cash EPS of at Least $5.15, ↑17% • FX Hit of ($140MM) Revenues & ($40MM) Adjusted EBITDA • ($40MM) Revenues & ($15MM) Adjusted EBITDA Worse than Plan • Credit Losses ($30MM) Revenues & ($30MM) Adjusted EBITDA Worse than Plan • 9.5% Loss Rate ↑ 70bps v. Plan • Funding Costs $30MM Revenues and $30MM Adjusted EBITDA Better than Plan
    11. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 11 2009 Free Cash Flow ($MM) Adjusted EBITDA $660 Loyalty Adjusted $30-40 Operating EBITDA $700 CAPEX, Cash Interest, Taxes ($340) Free Cash Flow $360 Per Share $6.00 (prior estimate: $5.75)
    12. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 12 Top Investor Questions 1. Liquidity: $550MM Conduit & $709MM TALF Completed 2. Credit Losses: Trending Moderately Higher (no spikes); Denominator Growth Helping 3. Non-cash Compensation: Q1 ($18M) v. ($6MM) last year • Timing only: full-year flat to 2008 ($49MM) • 4. FAS140: Capital (cash flow), Liquidity and Accounting Perspective: Top ten banks - $2 - $3 Trillion impacted • 5. Buyback: Mitigate FX & I/O Growovers
    13. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 13 2003-2009e (in $MM, except per share) $5.15 Adjusted EBITDA Cash EPS $4.42 $660 $655 $632 GR R $3.88 AG CA C % % 23 31 $3.14 $498 $321 $1.99 $255 $1.54 $189 $1.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e
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