Q1 2009 Earning Report of Alliance Data Systems - Presentation Transcript
First Quarter
Alliance Data Results
NYSE: ADS April 22, 2009
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 2
Agenda
• First Quarter Results
• Segment Results
• Spotlight – Epsilon Marketing Services
Bryan Kennedy, President of Epsilon
• Second Quarter and Full-Year Outlook
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 4
Loyalty Services Canada (constant currency)
• Strongest 1st Quarter in its History
• Revenues Grew 17%, Adjusted EBITDA Grew > 50%
• Renewed Shell-Canada (Top 10 ADS; Top 5 Loyalty) and Goodyear-Canada
• Miles Redeemed Grew 12%
• Recession not changing behavior
• Miles Issued Weak (-4%)
• Weak quarters not unprecedented (2001, 2002, 2008)
• Expect strong snapback by summer
• New value-enhanced launches by sponsors
• Gas price driven volume anniversaries Q3
• Home improvement category driven by tax changes
• Outlook: Strong Results to Continue (FX anniversaries Q4)
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 5
Epsilon Marketing Services
• Q1 Relatively Flat Against Toughest 2008 Comp
• 60% of Segment (Database, Analytics, Digital) Double-digit Growth
• Dynamic & Perpetual Data Driven Services
• $700B Shift to Accountable Marketing Programs
• Shift to Email Marketing Solutions
• 40% of Segment (Data, Agency) Negative, but Ramping
• New Wins at Record Pace:
• 5 Database/Analytics
• 15 Digital
• Q2: • Database, Analytics, Digital: Growth to Continue
• Data, Agency: Returning to Growth
• Full-Year Outlook: Tracking to 7% Top/Bottom Performance
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 6
Epsilon Marketing Services
• Strength of Epsilon’s Business Model
• Demand for measurable, “accountable” marketing increases in a downturn
• 3 Critical Ingredients:
DATA – identify and understand customer behavior
+
STRATEGY – agency capabilities to design, analyze, measure &
execute programs across channels
+
TECHNOLOGY – best-in-class assets & services to manage customer
marketing programs and platforms
↓
= FULL SERVICE EXECUTION, FULLY INTEGRATED DELIVERY
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 7
Private Label: Services and Credit
• Services (Network, Customer Care, Marketing): Both Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Up
• Credit: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Down
• Combined: Adjusted EBITDA ↓ 20% ($25MM)
↑ 10% (v. 0% 2008)
(+) Portfolio
↑ 3% (v. -3% 2008)
Credit Sales
Funding Costs Better
Yields Stable
Pipeline Strong/ Wins Included HSN, Haband, Springstone, and PacSun – (Renewal)
↑ 180 bps (8.8% v. 7% 2008)
(–) Credit Losses
I/O Growover $0 v. + $10MM 2008
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 8
Private Label: Services & Credit
• Outlook – Credit Losses
2007 2008 2009e
• Avg. Unemployment Rate 4.7% 6.1% *8.5%
} 110bps } 120bps } 100bps
• Total Credit Losses 5.8% 7.3% 9.5%
*(assumed unemployment trend 7.6% Jan; 9.5% Dec)
• Outlook –
• Q1 losses 8.8%
• Q2 seasonality – losses ↑ 70bps v. Q1, then settle down
• Funding saves to mitigate rise in losses
• Credit Loss drag begins to narrow in back half of year
• Full-year I/O growover drag ($30MM) to anniversary end Q4
↓
• Summary: Front-half 2009 tough, back-half 2009 improving, 2010 Solid
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 9
Balance Sheet
($MM) As of March 31, 2009
Cash and Cash Equivalents $322
Redemption Settlement Assets (Trust Cash) 514
Total Assets $4,500
Deferred Revenue $946
CD’s 933
Core Debt 1,631
Total Liabilities $4,086
Stockholders’ Equity $414
Key Metric:
• Net Core Debt / LTM Op. EBITDA (Op. Cash Flow) approx. 2.0x
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 10
Guidance
Q2: Sequential Comparison to Q1 2009
• Private Label’s Weakest Quarter
• 80% of Q1 → (18¢) Seasonality – lower finance income and higher credit losses
• Lack of FX Benefit on Investments (4¢)
• Positives: Epsilon, Buyback
↓
Q1: Actual $1.19
•
Q2: Private Label Seasonality ($.18)
•
Q2: No FX Benefit on Investments (0.04)
•
Q2: Epsilon, Buyback 0.08
•
• Q2 Outlook $1.05 (constant currency $1.18)
Full-Year Outlook
• Maintain Cash EPS of at Least $5.15, ↑17%
• FX Hit of ($140MM) Revenues & ($40MM) Adjusted EBITDA
• ($40MM) Revenues & ($15MM) Adjusted EBITDA Worse than Plan
• Credit Losses ($30MM) Revenues & ($30MM) Adjusted EBITDA Worse than Plan
• 9.5% Loss Rate ↑ 70bps v. Plan
• Funding Costs $30MM Revenues and $30MM Adjusted EBITDA Better than Plan
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