Betting on Big Data

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Andrew Corroll - Expedia Affiliate Network

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  • Like I say the purpose of this talk is not to diss Big Data, but to provide some crieriea upon which to evaluate its promise. There is a huge amount of hype about big data at the moment.It now joins the ranks of other buzz words such as CRM, Crowd sourcing…etcWhether a company should invest in big data will depend on the context. Just because we can store and process lots of data, does that mean we should. So what is this context…The context is the edge big data will provide you over your competitors. Whether it is identifying business efficiencies, Customer needs, Fraud detection. At the end of the day any investment in Big data will need to provide an edge.
  • I see the antecedent of big data in a remark made by pierresimonlapalce. This remark was based on the observation that the current state of the world is the result of some past state and that a future state of the world that of the present state So if one had data on the exact position of all the particles in the world and an understanding of their interaction and processing capabilities one could predict what state the world would move into next.This remark was written before the discovery of quantum effects which limits are ability to know everything, but it is the sentment that I focus on here.With enough data and processing power we can predict future outcomes.In business this would translate into a huge edge of ones competitors.We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes.—Pierre Simon Laplace, A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities[40]
  • Okay so if we assume that Big data provides us and edge, how much of our bankrolls should be bet on it.This formula is sometimes referred to as fortunes formula and it basically tells the user what percentage of ones bankroll one should put on an uncertain outcome.P is represents the probability of one winning the wager
  • And r represents the payoff per $ invested.
  • And r represents the payoff per $ invested.
  • The Kelly formula out perfoms martingale and fixed wage.
  • A 10 matrix multiplications 64 bit multi processor
  • A 10 matrix multiplications 64 bit multi processor
  • A matrix multiplication
  • Picture of Corporate traveller – Tell story of Key Travel – different technology, commercial landscape and competitors
  • There is about a 1/167 chance of getting the right answer
  • The addition of the S reduces the uncertainty to 1/51
  • The addition of an E to 1/40
  • The addition of a G reduces the uncertainty to 1/15
  • The addition of a G reduces the uncertainty to 1/15
  • Big data is all around us, all living things exploit subsets of this data to aid their survival. Finding new sources of data that increase this give some animals and survival edge. But nature has equipped living things with simple rules for navigating the big data universe. These are fast and frugal algorithms.
  • Betting on Big Data

    1. 1. To 3 Billion Dollars And Beyond… Size is a matter of context 2
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    19. 19. Common five letter word? 25
    20. 20. Common five letter word? 26
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    23. 23. I’m out of here29
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