eMarketer Webinar: Retail Ecommerce Outlook—Tallying the True Impact of Digital

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Ecommerce sales continue to grow as a percentage of overall retail, but the true impact of digital shopping goes far beyond the final click. Topics in this webinar include: What does double-digit growth in ecommerce sales mean for retail overall? How are innovative retailers responding to the convergence of digital and physical shopping? How do tablet and smartphone usage differ, and what does it mean for digital shopping and buying?

Published in: Marketing, Technology, Business

eMarketer Webinar: Retail Ecommerce Outlook—Tallying the True Impact of Digital

  1. 1. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. May 1, 2014 Retail Ecommerce Outlook—Tallying The True Impact of Digital Sponsored by Presented by: Yory Wurmser eMarketer, Inc.
  2. 2. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Agenda  eMarketer’s 2014 ecommerce forecast – Overall pace of growth – Sector-by-sector details  Convergence of online and offline shopping – How digital influences brick-and-mortar – Lessons from offline for digital retail  Role of mobile devices in ecommerce – Smartphones – Tablets Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  3. 3. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. eMarketer’s Ecommerce Forecast for 2014
  4. 4. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce: Rapid growth in sales and in share of total retail revenue in 2014
  5. 5. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce sales growth will more than triple growth in retail overall … Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar 15.5% 4.4% Ecommerce Retail Overall
  6. 6. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. … but sales in traditional retail still will dwarf ecommerce sales in 2014 Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar Sales Traditional Retail Ecommerce $4.43 Trillion $0.30 Trillion
  7. 7. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Recap: Ecommerce will grow quickly in 2014 • Sales reach $304 billion • 15.5% increase from 2013 • 6.4% of overall retail sales
  8. 8. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Retail sales are still trying to pick up speed following great recession
  9. 9. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Retail still hasn’t recovered to prerecession levels as a percent of GDP • Reached 27.6% in 2007 • Fell to 25.2% in 2009 at trough • Back to 27.0% in 2013 Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  10. 10. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Consumer spending is influenced by conflicting forces Upward • Improving consumer confidence • Lower debt • Low interest rates • Pent-up demand Downward • Flat real income • High unemployment • Harsh winter Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  11. 11. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. One other ‘upward’ pressure: ecommerce itself
  12. 12. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. One other ‘upward’ pressure: ecommerce itself 1. The growth of ‘long-tail’ sales 2. The impact of international sales from US ecommerce sites 3. The power of information to overcome consumer reluctance Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  13. 13. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. 1. The long tail enabled by ecommerce marketplaces Source: Chris Anderson, www.thelongtail.com
  14. 14. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. 2. International sales 7%OC&C Strategy Consultants
  15. 15. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. 3. The power of information online “[Consumers] don’t want to be wrong. … So, a productive thought process for the retailer can be, ‘How can I help them to feel more assured in their choice?’” — Karen Leitze, Executive Vice President, Director of Research and Strategy MARC USA
  16. 16. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Unpacking ecommerce: Retail sectors deploy ecommerce differently Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar Clipart from www.clipartbest.com
  17. 17. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce by sector: Size tells only part of the story 2014 Sales Ecommerce (eMarketer) penetration* Consumer electronics $66.4B 28%−44% Apparel & accessories $50.2B 11% *comScore & NPD Group
  18. 18. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Biggest impact of ecommerce in sectors characterized by:  Commodities  Easy storage  Easy delivery Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  19. 19. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Sectors with biggest ecommerce growth in 2014  Books/Video/Music: 17.0%  Apparel & Accessories: 16.2%  Auto & Parts: 15.9%  Consumer Electronics: 15.8%
  20. 20. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Focus on apparel: Why the lag and now the growth? • Low penetration • Comfort in returns • Better online experience Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  21. 21. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Focus on groceries: Big players join fray …
  22. 22. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. … while consumers gain comfort with mobile shopping in supermarkets
  23. 23. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Convergence of Online and Offline Shopping
  24. 24. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Impact of digital much bigger than ecommerce sales “The total impact of digital on the retail enterprise today [extends to] the majority of retail sales.” — Michael Burgess, President of HBC Digital
  25. 25. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Most US shoppers are digital shoppers and buyers • Nearly 90% of 219.4 million internet users shop online • Nearly three- quarters buy online
  26. 26. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Webrooming and showrooming: a two-way street
  27. 27. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Consumers shop on desktops, mobile and stores as part of a single shopping experience Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  28. 28. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Shift in focus from channel-specific sales to overall sales “Among multichannel retailers … their interest in digital is increasingly focused on driving customers and shoppers into their store locations.” — Scott Falzone, Industry Director of Retail Specialty
  29. 29. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. CASE: • Map to guide in-store shopping • Purchase history • Clienteling app • Click to collect Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  30. 30. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Multichannel retailers need to gauge the total effect of ecommerce “I truly don’t care if shoppers end up buying online or in- store.” — Gihad Jawhar, Vice President, Customer Interface Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  31. 31. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce Teaching Brick-and-Mortar Some Lessons
  32. 32. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Stores finding equivalents to web analytics Web • Cookie • Heat map • Traffic source • Shopping carts Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar Store • Loyalty number • Foot traffic • MAC address • Location-tracking
  33. 33. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. In-store messaging personalized at-scale • Apps with scanners • Mobile CRM • Beacons Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  34. 34. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce can also learn from brick- and-mortar Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar Clipart from 4vector.com
  35. 35. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Digital is a less free-flowing shopping experience than is in-store “You’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle by relying on digital to drive your market product.” — Marshal Cohen, Chief Industry Analyst, NPD Group Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  36. 36. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. The Role of Mobile Devices
  37. 37. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. US retail mcommerce in 2014 • $57.8 billion in sales • Up 37.2% from 2013 • 19.0% of ecommerce sales • 1.2% of total retail sales Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  38. 38. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Tablets generate far higher on-device sales 2/3 of mcommerce sales in 2014 will come via tablets
  39. 39. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Growth in tablet sales will outpace growth in smartphone sales through 2018 Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar 266% 134%
  40. 40. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Corollary: Smartphone share of mcommerce is decreasing Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  41. 41. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Mobile Is Becoming a Ubiquitous Part of Shopping “Retailers increasingly see consumers as not only being always on, but also on the go.” Scott Falzone, Industry Director of Retail Specialty Google
  42. 42. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Mobile shoppers in 2014 make up 73.7% of digital shoppers Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar 110.9 million 124.8 million • 144.8 million total • Up 16% from 2013
  43. 43. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Smartphone shoppers outnumber tablet shoppers Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar 110.9 million 124.8 million 110.9 million
  44. 44. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Knowing the Role of Devices Tablets • At home • Extended research • General buying Smartphones • Everywhere • Quick research • Last-minute buying
  45. 45. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Mcommerce is biting into desktop’s share of traffic and revenue Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar Percent change in US apparel and accessories retail ecommerce, Q3 2012 & Q3 2013 Traffic Revenue Desktop 19.8% 7.9% Smartphone 58.5% 66.4% Tablet 49.0% 60.8% Source: MarketLive, “Q3 2013 Performance Index”
  46. 46. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Three implications for retailers trying to maximize impact of mobile shopping 1. Understanding use cases is crucial for strategy 2. Small screen size demands simplicity of design 3. Curation is vital for merchandising
  47. 47. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Implication No. 1: Understanding Use cases is crucial for strategy
  48. 48. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Implication No. 2: Small screen size demands simplicity of design “The smartphone is just not going to work the same way as your stores. You can show me thousands of products in your store. You can only show me five on the phone. So there is a mechanical, mathematical kind of compression effect between the two that is going to disrupt the way business is done.” --Nicolas Franchet, Head of Retail and Ecommerce, Global Vertical Strategy
  49. 49. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Implication No. 3: Simpler smartphone interfaces raise importance of curation via… – Algorithms – Friends – Shopper recommendations – Tastemakers Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  50. 50. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Takeaways  2014 will be another year of rapid growth in ecommerce sales  Sales are only a partial measure of ecommerce, which may influence the majority of sales  The brick-and-mortar and ecommerce shopping experiences are converging, making a singular strategy important  Mobile is taking on a bigger role, with tablets becoming digital catalogs and phones becoming omnipresent research tools. Twitter Hashtag – #eMwebinar
  51. 51. › RETAILER CHALLENGES  Reaching the mobile consumer, at the right time and place  Creating a seamless experience across channels  Delivering results
  52. 52. › RetailMeNot MOBILE IN-STORE SOLUTION
  53. 53. › PROFITABLE MOBILE MARKETING CHANNEL +3-5% Lift in In-Store Sales +5-18% Increase in AOV +631% ROI
  54. 54. › RMN SHOWCASE: A RICH AND ENGAGING SHOPPING EXPERIENCE American Eagle’s Spring Collection Lord & Taylor’s Swim Collection Home Depot’s Spring Black Friday Deals
  55. 55. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. Q&A Session Retail Ecommerce Outlook—Tallying the True Impact of Digital Around 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. Here are some recent ones you may be interested in:  Proximity Marketing in Retail: Can Ecommerce Tactics Revive Brick-and-Mortar?  Shopping Cart Abandonment: How Retailers Are Using the Metric to Drive Better Results  Supermarkets and Mobile: Satisfying Grocery Shoppers’ Appetites  The State of Omnichannel Retail: Retailers Playing Catch-Up with Consumers  Tablets and Apparel: Fashioning a Role in Mobile Commerce  Key Digital Trends for 2014 Learn more about digital marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription To learn more: www.emarketer.com/corporate 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Sponsored by Yory Wurmser

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