eMarketer Webinar: Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends
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eMarketer Webinar: Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends

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Join eMarketer Principal Analyst Jeffrey Grau to learn how retailers’ promotional offers have extended the online holiday shopping season, and how consumers will get their shopping cues from ...

Join eMarketer Principal Analyst Jeffrey Grau to learn how retailers’ promotional offers have extended the online holiday shopping season, and how consumers will get their shopping cues from retailers’ promotional emails, social media and mobile comparison shopping engines.

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  • SeeWhy provides real-time analytics for customer data Data based on analysis of more than $1 billion of ecommerce transactions for each of the last two years. http://seewhy.com/blog/2012/01/17/shopping-cart-abandonment-rate-set-to-rise-in-2012/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/groupthink/2012/08/30/cyber-monday-understanding-consumer-behavior/

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  • 1. SEPTEMBER 20, 2012 Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends Sponsored by:Jeffrey GrauPrincipal Analyst ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 2. Questions we will answer today: What is the outlook for online holiday sales? How is the holiday season being extended? What new trends will fuel sales growth?  Daily deals  Smartphone and tablet shoppers  Photo-sharing sites  Email and search Key takeaways ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 3. Online holiday sales will post strong growth for the fourth consecutive year Online sales for November and December will reach $54.5 billion in 2012, up 16.8% over 2011Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 4. What is your outlook for the online holiday shopping season? “The overall growth “We’re thinking we’re expecting should 20% growth for the be in line with 2011 or holidays.” potentially slightly Source: eMarketer interview, better.” August 10, 2012 Source: eMarketer interview, Eric Best July 31, 2012Scot WingoCEO, Chairman of the Board and Co-Founder Founder and CEOChannelAdvisor Mercent “We’re not expecting “I feel comfortable to see a soft year saying growth will be by any means.” in the neighborhood of 20%.” Source: eMarketer interview, August 2, 2012 Source: eMarketer interview, August 8, 2012Jay HendersonStrategy Program Director, Cross Channel Marketing Ryan GibsonIBM Enterprise Marketing Management Vice President of Marketing The Rimm-Kaufman Group ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 5. Retail ecommerce sales are off to a strong start in 2012 The US Department of Commerce and comScore both estimate online sales grew 15% in H1 2012Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 6. Online holiday sales will be in line withstrong ecommerce sales for all of 2012Retail ecommerce sales are forecast to reach $224billion in 2012, up 15.4% over 2011 In 2012, $54.5 billion in online holiday sales will account for 24.3% of total ecommerce sales ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 7. Questions we will answer today What is the outlook for online holiday sales? How is the holiday season being extended? What new trends will fuel sales growth?  Daily deals  Smartphone and tablet shoppers  Photo sharing sites  Email and search Key takeaways ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 8. Consumers will shop for holiday gifts both earlier and later in the season In 2011, online spending was strong in early November and late DecemberTwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 9. Holiday creep will continue this year  FINDING 1: Some 31% of retailers will start their holiday promotions earlier this year, with 42% of them starting in October (Source: Hay Group)  FINDING 2: By Black Friday 2011 (Nov 25), 54% of online shoppers had completed more than one- quarter of their holiday purchases, compared to 49% of shoppers in 2010 (Source: Compete)  OBSERVATION: Black Friday deals have morphed into Black November deals  TAKEAWAY: Retailers compete for wallet share and try to get shoppers to buy over multiple($ millions) 2010 2011 % change paychecksNov 1–20 $8,470 $9,670 14%Source: comScore Inc. “Halloween is the new Thanksgiving.” —Scot Wingo, CEO of ChannelAdvisor ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 10. Thanksgiving Day now kicks off the busyholiday shopping weekend  OBSERVATION 1: Thanksgiving Day now kicks off the busy Thanksgiving weekend for shopping, eclipsing Black Friday, which itself only became a big online shopping day in recent years  OBSERVATION 2: People are bringing their smartphones and tablets with them to their Thanksgiving dinner at friends’ or relatives’ homes and using their mobile devices to shop before and after the Thanksgiving meal.($ millions) 2010 2011 % changeThanksgiving Day $407 $479 18%Source: comScore Inc.“Retailers must begin promoting deals a day early and be prepared to keep them fresh onBlack Friday to hold shoppers’ interest.” —John Squire, director of digital marketing and analytics at IBM ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 11. Consumers will continue holiday shoppingright through Christmas  FINDING 1: On Xmas Day 2011, online sales grew 16.4% and sales from mobile devices increased 173% YOY (Source: IBM)  FINDING 2: Last year, 39% of online consumers shopped after Christmas and 32% finished holiday shopping post-Christmas. (Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX)  FINDING 3: Before the start of the 2011 holiday, over 60% of consumers were already looking forward to post-holiday deals. 70% of post-holiday shoppers made purchases for themselves but also looked for gifts for close family members (Source: Yahoo!)($ millions) 2010 2011 % changeDec 19–Jan 1 $4,437 $5,330 20%Source: comScore Inc.“Retailers’ focus on express shipping at discount prices or even for free, as well as anincrease in in-store pick up messaging, contributed to strong sales leading up to Xmas.” —Chad White, director of research at Responsys ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 12. Consumers also shopped online earlierand later in the day on Cyber Monday 2010 2011 Before 9am 3% 12% 5pm–9pm 24% 34% ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 13. Questions we will answer today What is the outlook for online holiday sales? How is the holiday season being extended? What new trends will fuel sales growth?  Daily deals  Smartphone and tablet shoppers  Photo sharing sites  Email and search Key takeaways ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 14. Nearly 1 in 4onlineconsumerspurchased agift via adaily dealsite duringthe 2011holidayseason Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 15. This year, holiday shoppers will takeadvantage of retailers’ own daily deals ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 16. Daily deals have become an importantdraw for creating seasonal demand “Creating branded experiences for the shopper is more important than ever for retailers.” Source: eMarketer interview, July 31, 2012 Eric Best Founder and CEO Mercent “Daily deals are another interesting promotional dial that we didn’t see last holiday season that so far this year consumers and retailers are really warming up to.” Scot Wingo CEO, Chairman and Co-Founder ChannelAdvisor Source: eMarketer interview, August 10, 2012 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 17. Consumers and retailers both benefitfrom daily deals Daily deals tend to be used to sell off inventory at big discounts of 30% to 50% Retailer use daily deals to catch the attention of shoppers early in the holiday season Daily deals give retailers license to contact shoppers frequently Big discounts can generate a lot of word-of-mouth on social networks, especially when retailers offer fan-exclusives via Facebook and Twitter ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 18. Questions we will answer today What is the outlook for online holiday sales? How is the holiday season being extended? What new trends will fuel sales growth?  Daily deals  Smartphone and tablet shoppers  Photo sharing sites  Email and search Key takeaways ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 19. Smartphone and table shopping are engines of ecommerce growth In December 2011, mobile shoppers contributed 14.6% of traffic and 11.0% of sales on retail sites “By December 2012, mobile sales will double and exceed 20% of site sales.” —Jay Henderson, strategy program director of cross channel marketing at IBMTwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 20. Tablets are the preferred portable devicefor making purchases Meanwhile, 77.6% of respondents to Baynote’s study indicated they used their mobile phone to research and comparison shop ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 21. Researchon asmartphoneoften leadsto apurchasein-store oronlinevia a PC ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 22. Smartphones are used to satisfyimmediate shopping needs ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 23. Usage of comparison-shopping apps isexploding ShopSavvy RedLaser (owned by eBay) ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 24. Tablet shoppers outspend smartphoneand traditional online shoppersDuring Holiday 2011, tablet users spent 20% moreper order, on average, than desktop online shoppers ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 25. Tablets are stretching the online shopping day beyond business hours “We’re seeing 80% spikes in traffic on weekends over a typical weekday, starting around 9am or 10am, and going all the way through 11pm.” Source: eMarketer interview, April 24, 2012 Matt Jones General Manager of Mobile Home Depot “We see a spike in traffic between 8pm and 10pm. People are at home, they’re lying on the couch or in bed. The traffic is less hurried …” Yonatan Feldman VP of Mobile & Global Engineering Source: eMarketer interview, May 1, 2012 Gilt GroupeTwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 26. Questions we will answer today: What is the outlook for online holiday sales? How is the holiday season being extended? What new trends will fuel sales growth?  Daily deals  Smartphone and tablet shoppers  Photo-sharing sites  Email and search Key takeaways ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 27. Photo-sharing sites will be a new sourceof holiday traffic for certain retailersPinterest has emerged as a serious contender toFacebook in driving visitors to apparel sites “Pinterest users are very heavy online spenders.” —Andrew Lipsman, vice president of industry analysis at comScore ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 28. Wayfair derives multiple benefits fromPinterest referrals 1,700-plus followers on Pinterest Shoppers referred to Wayfair’s website by Pinterest were more than 10% more likely to make a purchase than visitors who arrived from other social networks, including Facebook and Twitter Pinterest referrals spent 10% more than the average shopper on the site Source: Mashable, April 2012. ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 29. Victoria’sSecret hasrun severalPinterestcontests,including“Victoria’sSecretSummer” ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 30. Free People,a vintageapparelretailer, hasmore than300,000followers onInstagram,where it runsa contestcalled“What’s InYour FPCloset?” ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 31. Questions we will answer today: What is the outlook for online holiday sales? How is the holiday season being extended? What new trends will fuel sales growth?  Daily deals  Smartphone and tablet shoppers  Photo-sharing sites  Email and search Key takeaways ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 32. Email is the preferred vehicle for onlineconsumers to receive holiday promotions Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 33. Shopping cart abandonment rates climbduring the holiday season  FINDING: After Labor Day, shopping cart abandonment rates rise  PROOF: In 2011, 72% of all potential ecommerce purchases were abandoned; the rate jumped to 85% in the weeks running up to Cyber Monday and peaked at 89.2% on November 23  PREDICTION: The shopping cart abandonment rate will reach 90% this year, on November 21, the day before Thanksgiving  RECOMMENDATION: Sending a sequence of gentle email reminders to abandoners that there are still items in their online shopping cart can result in a recovery rate of between 10% and 30% Source: SeeWhy,“As in previous years, many customers [during the holiday season] anticipatedpromotional offers and deferred purchases, causing the abandonment rate to shoot up.” —Charles Nicholls, founder and chief strategy officer at SeeWhy ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 34. Holidayshoppers willsee moresophisticatedtriggeredemails likethis one fromCrutchfieldappealing toa wide rangeofpreferences ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 35. Google Shopping will debut this holidayseason Product Listing Ads ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 36. Google Shopping will allow consumers to shop by many attributesFilteringoptions ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 37. Questions we will answer today: What is the outlook for online holiday sales? How is the holiday season being extended? What new trends will fuel sales growth?  Daily deals  Smartphone and tablet shoppers  Photo-sharing sites  Email and search Key takeaways ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 38. Key Takeaways Online holiday sales will reach $54.5 billion in 2012, up 16.8% over 2011 Ecommerce sales for all of 2012 are on target to reach $224.2 billion, up 15.4% year over year Consumers will do more shopping earlier and later in the holiday season to take advantage of retailers’ heavy promotions Mobile shopping and online deal hunting will be major contributors to holiday ecommerce success Photo-sharing sites will drive traffic to fashion retail sites Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  • 39. Drive Conversions and Revenue Built for commerce: Conversions, transactions and revenue Highly personal, relevant email and cross-channel marketing Sophisticated made simpleKevin Skurski | Director of Marketing Communications
  • 40. Holiday Resource CenterA collection of tools and research,including white papers, guides andblog posts.Top 12 Marketing Tips for the Holidays2012 Holiday Planning Month-by-MonthGuide2012 Holiday Email Marketing Lookbook bronto.com/holiday
  • 41. Customer LifecycleUncovering Missed Revenue Opportunities –Exploring the Customer LifecycleExamine each phase of thecustomer lifecycleOutline consumer behavioralong the wayIdentify revenue-generating programs bronto.com/resources
  • 42. Tips & Tricks Expertise from the field White papers Customer success stories Blog posts bronto.com/resources
  • 43. Q&A Session Learn more about digital advertising with an eMarketer corporate subscription Online HolidayShopping Forecast Over 120 reports are published each year. and Trends Following are a few recent ones you may be interested in:  Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends  Adapting to a Showrooming World: How Retailers Are Earning Customer Loyalty Jeffrey Grau  Worldwide B2C Ecommerce Forecast: Midyear 2012 UpdateYou will receive an email  How Retailers Are Leveraging ‘Big Data’ to tomorrow with a link to Personalize Ecommerce view the deck and webinar recording. Sponsored by: To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Brontobronto.com/resources ©2012 eMarketer Inc.