Big Picture Perspectives on Consumers and Marketing in an Always-on, Digital World

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eMarketer Chairman, Geoff Ramsey’s keynote presentation delivered at ANA Digital and Social Media Conference.
Where are consumers spending their time—and where can marketers reach them? The answer shifts further toward “mobile” every day, and according to eMarketer’s estimates, time spent with mobile devices surpassed time spent with the desktop internet for the first time last year. This also means that we don’t so much “go online” anymore—we simply are online. And being always-connected means that not only are consumers reachable for marketers, they’re also always shopping.

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Big Picture Perspectives on Consumers and Marketing in an Always-on, Digital World

  1. 1. Big Picture Perspective on Consumers and Marketers in an Always-on, Digital World July 14, 2014 Presented by 
 Geoffrey Ramsey
 Chairman, Co- Founder @geofframsey
  2. 2. § How are consumers spending their time and money in a digital world?
 § How are marketers reaching those connected consumers?
 § Where are the marketing and media dollars going? Agenda @geofframsey ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
  3. 3. Consumers are spending more time and money online 5 hours 46 minutes 47% of daily media time $449B US B2C ecommerce sales ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Source: eMarketer, Dec 2013/April 2014
  4. 4. A closer look at where digital time is going… versus television ©2014 eMarketer Inc. 2 hours 51 minutes, or 23% of daily media time spent on mobile devices 2 hours 12 minutes, or 18% of daily media time spent on desktops/laptops Source: eMarketer, April, 2014 > 4 hours 28 minutes, or 37% of daily media time spent with television +
  5. 5. With mobile: being online has become a persistent, anywhere state Mobile users check their phones 100X daily Source: Mobile Posse and Phoenix Marketing International, 2013
  6. 6. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Smartphones & tablets have reached critical mass in the U.S. (millions of users) Source: eMarketer, March 2014 163.9M users 51.4% of population 147.2M users 46.2% of population
  7. 7. % of population on smartphones, by age group (2014) Total Under 11 12 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ 0% 40% 80% 19.9% 53.8% 61.7% 77.8% 78.8% 79.1% 55.1% 4.8% 51.4% Source: eMarketer, 2014 51.4%
  8. 8. In 2017, two-thirds of the U.S. population are on smartphones Total Under 11 12 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ 0% 50% 100% 29.5% 81.4% 90.3% 92.9% 94.4% 95.2% 76.5% 6.8% 66.9% Source: eMarketer, 2014 64%
  9. 9. Smartphone 
 Users 51% of
 population Digital 
 Video Viewers 61% of population ©2013 eMarketer Inc. Source: eMarketer 2014 Social Users 54% of population Tablet Users 46% of population The U.S. landscape for digital activities 
 (penetration within total population) Smart TV Users 16% of population Smart
  10. 10. % of population watching digital video, by type of content ©2014 eMarketer Inc. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Any TV Shows Movies 33% 45% 61% Source: eMarketer, June, 2014
  11. 11. % of population watching digital video, by type of content ©2014 eMarketer Inc. 77% of tablet users are watching video on their tablets1/2 of smartphone users are watching video on their phones Accounts for only 
 3.2 minutes per day, 
 versus 5.1 hours
 of traditional TV ! —Nielsen, 2014
  12. 12. 113 million, or 36% of the U.S. population, are now regularly using some form of connected TV
  13. 13. Who sits around and just watches TV anymore? 86% of U.S. smartphone owners say they use their devices while watching TV, and nearly half do so daily
 
 –Nielsen, 2014
  14. 14. At the same time, social network activity is going mobile, and vice versa 73% of social network users access social media on their phones ! ––eMarketer >70% of time spent with social media happens on phones ! ––comScore
  15. 15. Mobile shopping, buying and commerce are exploding eMarketer, April, 2014 2014 2018 2.3X M-commerce Retail Sales
 (% of total ecommerce) $197 B 30%$84 B 19%
  16. 16. Researching products has largely become a digital experience ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Desktop Phone/Tablet
  17. 17. II. How Are Marketers Reaching the Connected Consumer?
  18. 18. It’s a struggle to keep on top of the data 43% “Poorly Integrated” 46% “Improving”
  19. 19. Complex attribution and measurement models remain a work in progress ©2014 eMarketer Inc. 64%: Marketers using last-touch and/or first-touch metrics 22%: Marketers using cross-channel attribution approaches Source: The CMO Club/Visual IQ, Jan 2014; Webmarketing123, Nov 2013
  20. 20. END GOAL: 
 harvest cross-screen identities by tapping into the streams of data emanating from Mobile, Video & Social activity across platforms and devices The antidote to fragmentation is a unified view of the consumer! ©2013 eMarketer Inc.
  21. 21. ©2013 eMarketer Inc. Smart use of data––across devices––is the only way to
 keep up with rising consumer expectations, especially 
 with mobile.
  22. 22. A majority of marketers plan to increase their spending on Content Marketing 71% 74% of marketers worldwide said they would increase their content marketing dollars ! —Econsultancy, 2014
  23. 23. Content Marketing is a challenge…
  24. 24. With Content Marketing, the bar for quality is very high…
  25. 25. NATIVE advertising??? “Marketing should be as compelling and engaging as the content you would see from your family and friends.”
  26. 26. Think of mobile as the Swiss Army Knife of marketing Pocket-sized
 Omnichannel Marketing Device Location Services Mobile Social Mobile Commerce Mobile Payments In-Store Mapping Email Coupon Delivery Text Notifications Mobile Apps Mobile Search
  27. 27. Watch for increased use of mobile location-based data 30 - 40% 41% of worldwide firms collected location-based data about consumers in 2013, but 23% plan to start ––EIU, 2013 31% of global companies (and 39% of agencies) are using location-based targeting ––Econsultancy and Responsys, 2013 Local mobile ad spend will rise from 40% of total US mobile ad spend in 2013 to 52% by 2018 ––BIA Kelsey, Nov, 2013 Location Services
  28. 28. I. Ecommerce TrendsIII. Where are the media dollars flowing?
  29. 29. Total media will see a resurgence in growth this year 1.1% But if you strip out digital & mobile, growth is only:
  30. 30. 2016: Mobile ad spending overtakes the desktop Get ready for two key inflection points ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Source: eMarketer, March 2014
 *share of U.S. media dollars ! 2018: Digital ad spending (37%) overtakes TV (36%)*
  31. 31. $51B Meanwhile, we reach another milestone this year: ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Total spending on US digital advertising Source: eMarketer, June 2014
  32. 32. Digital will continue growing at 
 double-digit rates “[P&G is] getting close to 30% of spending being in… the digital, social and mobile spaces.” ––Jon Moeller, CFO, Procter & Gamble
  33. 33. 66% Digital spending is highly concentrated among a handful of companies (two- thirds of dollars go to nine companies) ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Source: eMarketer, June 2014
  34. 34. Desktop spending will dip 1.2% in 2014 Look out for the shift happening within the digital ad spending mix Mobile spending will increase by 83% Source: eMarketer, March 2014 ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
  35. 35. Desktopocalypse??? Are we reaching the “End of Days” for our 
 desktop-centric ad ecosystem???
  36. 36. Look at desktop vs. mobile ad spending trends In 2016, mobile will surpass the desktop 
 by 16% ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
  37. 37. By 2018, mobile = 71% of the digital pie Source: eMarketer, 2014 Desktop = 29%
  38. 38. Mobile ad spending is on a tear 12.5X Comparative Estimates
  39. 39. US mobile spending growth is driven by both display and search 87% Display 82% Search
  40. 40. % of Advertising Revenue that Will Come from Mobile in 2014 68% 84%37% ––eMarketer, 2014
  41. 41. Digital video ad spending is also ramping fast ©2014 eMarketer Inc. 2X
  42. 42. Where the digital video dollars are going Mobile video ad spending will grow faster than any other channel
  43. 43. In absolute dollars, TV trumps digital video in annual ad spending increases ©2014 eMarketer Inc. TV $s
  44. 44. $6.8B Total Spending on US Social Network Advertising ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Source: eMarketer, June 2014 = 71% of social media $s
  45. 45. Ad buying is increasingly automated 64% ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Source: MAGNA GLOBAL, Oct 2013 Share of US digital display ads that could be purchased programmatically in 2014
  46. 46. RTB, as a subset of programmatic, will also expand rapidly Sources: eMarketer, 2014 US Real-Time Bidding Display Ad Spending (in billions) 22% of display spend 30% of display spend
  47. 47. ©2014 eMarketer Inc. Source: MAGNA GLOBAL, Oct 2013 Programmatic… still a work-in-progress Only 12% of senior agency buyers trust it to properly or accurately execute their orders ––Strata, 2014 Over 60% don’t feel the industry has an accurate and unified definition of it ––Strata, 2014 1/2 of marketers don’t understand it well enough to buy and execute campaigns with it ––ANA and Forrester, 2014
  48. 48. % of respondents Programmatic Approaches that US Executive Marketers Currently Use vs. Plan to Use*, Sep 2013 Audience segmentation 79% 91% Utilization of auction-based approaches to media buying (e.g., through a real-time bidding platform) 79% 86% Insight development 63% 88% Automation of back-end processes 59% 86% Automation of "premium" digital media buying processes 59% 79% Content optimization 47% 69% Automation of traditional media buying processes (e.g., purchasing print advertising) 22% 44% Currently Next 2 years Note: *in the next 2 years Source: Winterberry Group and the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), "Programmatic Everywhere? Data, Technology and the Future of Audience Engagement," Nov 4, 2013 165667 www.eMarketer.com Watch for programmatic buying to extend rapidly to premium inventory ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
  49. 49. Programmatic will migrate quickly to video and mobile ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
  50. 50. Are you prepared for the transformation? agree that marketing is undergoing a revolution84% ––Adobe, 2014 (survey among 1,004 US marketers) expect digital and mobile to transform their businesses over the next 5 years… 78% ––Accenture, 2014 (survey among 600 global executives) 21% think they’ll be able to reap…yet only the benefits
  51. 51. … and speaking of change… of marketers expect their role to change within the next year (and 81% within the next 3 years) 64% ––Adobe, 2014 (survey among 1,004 US marketers)
  52. 52. Geoffrey Ramsey Chairman, Co-Founder geoff@emarketer.com @geofframsey Get access to all eMarketer research. Learn more here http://www.emarketer.com/Corporate/Products

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