Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
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  • The revenue line assumes that the 2001/2003 tax cuts and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) are extended and not paid for.
  • What happens if you try reduce the deficit without including revenues.
  • Accepting the deal reached in the Budget Control Act of 2011, with deficit reduction achieved through spending caps on most discretionary programs until 2021 and allowing the sequester to start in January 2013. This approach would devastate funding for federal tribal programs with blunt across-the-board cuts of 8.2 percent in FY 2013 to most Indian programs, including the Indian Health Service, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Indian housing, job training, Indian education, and others.Modifying the Budget Control Act only to protect the defense budget at the expense of non-defense domestic programs. This approach would exacerbate the impact of sequestration on the trust responsibilities to tribes in the federal budget.The House Republican leadership’s budget proposal: The House-passed plan would cut non-defense discretionary programs nearly $1.2 trillion below the already tight Budget Control Act budget caps.  Funding for non-defense discretionary programs would be cut by about 22 percent beyond cuts needed to meet the BCA caps, starting in 2014. The domestic cuts would be three times as deep as under sequestration in FY 2014.The President’s budget proposal: this proposal replaces the deep discretionary spending cuts in the sequester with a budget package that includes new revenues. The budget starts with a cap on appropriations that will cut nearly $1 trillion over the next 10 years as enacted in the Budget Control Act. However, it replaces the sequester with smaller, targeted cuts and at least $1.1 trillion in new revenues raised from those with the higher incomes and from corporations.

Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report Presentation Transcript

  • FEDERAL BUDGET PROBLEMS
  • Economic Woes • • • • National debt = $17 trillion + US Budget Deficit = $1.2 trillion National unemployment rate 7.3% Unemployment in some Alaska villages 2 to 3 times that of national average • Stock market very volatile
  • Where do Federal Tax Dollars Go?
  • FY 2013 Outlays Other 17.5% Medicare 13.8% National Defense 18.2% Medicaid 7.4% Mandatory Discretionary BIA 0.07% IHS 0.12% Non-Defense 14.8% Social Security 21.6% Net Interest 6.5% Non-Defense, Discretionary portion of budget very small!
  • Domestic Discretionary Funding Is a Shrinking Share of Total Program Costs Share of Total 2001 2008 Change Defense & security 21.7% 29.2% +7.5% Social Security, Medicare/caid 45.9% 43.5% -2.4% Other mandatory programs 14.0% 12.5% -1.4% Domestic discretionary 18.4% 14.7% -3.7% Total program costs 100% 100% 0.0% Notes: Figures may not add due to rounding. The defense/security figures also include veterans, homeland security, and international affairs. Medicare is net of premiums. Figures for 2008 are CBO’s January estimate plus supplemental discretionary funding requested by President Bush. Totals exclude net interest. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
  • Domestic Discretionary Funding Has Been Growing More Slowly Than Any Other Set of Programs (Average annual rate of growth, from 2001 through 2008) nominal real real per person Defense & security 12.0% 9.1% 8.1% Social Security, Medicare/caid 6.5% 3.8% 2.8% Other mandatory programs 5.7% 3.0% 2.0% Domestic discretionary 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% Average, all program costs 7.3% 4.6% 3.6% Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
  • WHAT CONTRIBUTES TO DEFICIT SPENDING & NATIONAL DEBT?
  • Sources of Federal Deficits - 2009-2019
  • 9
  • Legislation Adding to Deficits: Mostly Tax Cuts & Defense Cost in 2005 of legislation enacted since January 2001 Domestic Discretionary (except Homeland Security), 7% Entitlements, 8% Tax Cuts, 48% Defense, Homeland Security, and International, 37% Source: CBPP calculations from Congressional Budget Office data. Reflects costs above an adjusted CBO current services baseline. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2005.
  • THE MOST EXPENSIVE MYTH: Tax breaks for the rich will stimulate the economy!
  • Dow Jones Index 1990 95 Clinton years 2000 2005 Bush Tax Cuts 2010 Obama Elected
  • Tax Breaks Impact on Unemployment Rates Rate at January of Each Year 12 Tax Breaks 10 8 6 Rate 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • NATIVE AMERICAN PROGRAM BUDGETS
  • Since 1980 Native American programs have lost ground to inflation while per capita spending has gone up for other citizens
  • Overall Per Capita Vs. Indian Per Capita 80% Relative Budget Change From 1975 (inflation adjusted) Overall U.S. Per Capita Expenditure Indian Per Capita Expenditure 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 2001 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 19 77 19 75 -60%
  • When Congress has approved increases to the BIA budgets those increases went to Central Office administration
  • BIA 2002 to 2008 1 2 4 3 2002 Change 5 Inflation 2008 16% Tribal Priority Allocation $752,156 -$57,662 $694,534 -7.7% Other Recurring $586,968 $433,454 $1,020,422 73.8% Non-Recurring $72,798 -$ $ -% Central Office Ops $58,106 $116,954 $175,060 201.3% Regional Office Ops $62,679 -$18,182 $44,497 -29% Special Programs $267,102 -$91,414 $223,467 -33.7%
  • BUDGET INCREASES: 6 LARGEST INTERIOR AGENCY FY2004 TO FY2012 Indian Affairs 8% Reclamation Land Management Geo Survey Park Service Fish Wildlife 30% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
  • BUDGET INCREASES (DECREASES): 6 LARGEST INTERIOR AGENCIES FY2012 PRESIDENT’S REQUEST VS. FY 2010 ENACTED LEVEL $200 $150 + $140 million Millions $100 $50 $0 ($50) ($100) - $120 million ($150) NPS FWS USGS BLM BOR BIA
  • SEQUESTRATION
  • Budget Control Act of 2011 1. Increased debt limit into 2013 in two stages enabling payment for existing commitments 2. Cut discretionary spending by $917 B over 10 years 3. Established a bipartisan, bicameral committee to identify additional $1.5 trillion or more in deficit reduction by November 23. House and Senate to vote by December 23 without amendment or filibuster. 4. Balanced Budget Amendment to Constitution to be considered separately.
  • Super Committee Fails So … • Budget Sequestration suppose to start Jan 1, 2013 – delayed until end of March. • Approximate 7-10% across the board cuts in nearly all domestic programs; similar cuts to defense programs
  • Sequestration • Budget Sequestration for FY 2013 – Partial Year – 5.21% Cut for the BIA – $228 million cut for the IHS – VA Medical System not cut – Some low-income programs protected, but not the Tribal programs
  • Sequester Impact • Lack of Super Committee agreement last fall led to across the board spending cuts, “Sequestration.” 5.2% Cut. • Sequestration means all deficit reduction is from spending. • Non-Defense Discretionary budgets are already cut deeply through 10 year spending caps.
  • Impacts on Specific Indian Programs • Across the Board cuts will be worse than .2% compared to FY10: – Due to recent year reductions… – Indian Housing Block Grant -21% – Indian Student Education, -13% – Tribal Community Oriented Policing Grants -25% – BIA, Operation of Indian Programs - 14% – Indian Health Service is subjected to the higher 8.2% cut, not the 2% special rule that the CRS reported in August.
  • Federal Budget - Hard Facts  At least one-third of all Federal spending is funded through borrowing.  Debt Ceiling. Extended to about mid-February 2014  The BCA has life until 2021
  • BUDGET PROPOSALS
  • Speaker Boehner  Proposed returning to FY 2008 budget levels  A cut of about 15% from FY 2010  FY 2008, after factoring in inflation, was itself a cut of about 15% from FY 2002 levels
  • Chairman Ryan Plan  Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan gets nearly twothirds of its $4.5 trillion in budget cuts over 10 years from programs for the needy  $2.17 trillion in reductions from Medicaid and related health care.  $350 billion in cuts in mandatory programs serving low-income Americans (other than Medicaid).  $400 billion in cuts in low-income discretionary programs.
  • CBO Report: Ryan Plan Would Nearly End Most of Government Other Than Social Security, Health Care, and Defense by 2050 • Plan would shrink federal spending to 20 % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2015 and to 14.75 % of GDP by 2050 • The lowest level since 1951, a time when Medicare and Medicaid did not exist. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
  • Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY2012 Budget Resolution 35
  • Obama FY 2014 Budget • • • • Would End Sequestration Increases Tax Revenue Imposes Cuts on Medicaid and Medicare Basically hold Indian programs harmless, except for effects of inflation
  • President’s FY 2014 Proposed Budget • Bureau of Indian Affairs: $2.56 billion – An increase of $31.2 million above FY 2012 • $21.2 million less Contract Support increase – Current Rate of Inflation: 1.5% – $38.4 million x 2: $76.8 million
  • Notably… the Administration proposes putting caps on contract support costs moving it to a separate account/providing them on a contract by contract basis BIG ISSUE – WOULD OVERTURN RAMAH SUPREME COURT CASE DONE WITHOUT TRIBAL CONSULTATION; IN VIOLATION OF OBAMA EXECUTIVE ORDER ON CONSULTATION!
  • Department of the Interior FY 2014 Budget = 4% Increase • 5.11% all other than BIA • BIA - 1.2% increase ($31 million) –.8% less Indirect Cost ($10 million) – Inflation: 1.5% • If funded equitably to other DOI Bureaus BIA funding increases should be $134 million instead of $31 million
  • FY 2013 IHS Funding – Pres. • IHS will be funded at $4.422 billion. That's an increase from the $4.307 billion estimate for fiscal year 2012. • It's also an increase from the $4.069 billion that the IHS saw in fiscal year 2011. • Increase of $115 million. • Did not full fund Contract Support Costs • Partially protected from Sequestration
  • Non-Defense Discretionary Spending 3.6% 3.4% Lowest Level since 1970 3.2% 3.0% CBO Jan 2011 NDD Projections % of GDP 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% BCA Caps/Obama/ Domenici-Rivlin 2.2% Bowles-Simpson 2.0% BCA with Sequester 1.8% 1.6% Chairman Ryan's Budget 1.4% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
  • House Act  On Party Line voting, House has passed legislation to hold the Defense Budget Harmless, and basically double cuts to the Domestic Discretionary Programs.  CR defunds Obamacare
  • What is Likely?  Federal Government shut down; further risk US credit rating.  CR for three months, under FY 2013 Sequestration, with further negotiation.  Negotiations fail and there is a second year of sequestration – worse than the first.
  • MEMBERS OF CONGRESS NOT MOTIVATED TO END SEQUESTRATION
  • Blue / Red States in 2012
  • Blue / Red Counties in 2012
  • If Bush Tax Cuts had Expired
  • Sources of Federal Deficits - 2009-2019
  • Rich get Richer The rich in this country have never done better as during this past decade!
  • Income Gains Have been Concentrated at the Top Income Growth has been Very Uneven Recently 10/28/2013 cbpp.org
  • Widening Class Disparities • The rich have never been richer • 42 million Americans live in poverty – – – – 1 out of every 6 15.6 % of all Americans 22% of all children The highest rate of poverty since 1993
  • Countries Where Rich Are Too Rich and Poor Too Poor • Libya • Egypt • Syria • Mexico No wonder why there is so much political unrest in these countries!
  • Thank You for Your Kind Attention! Gunalcheesh! Howa!
  • My Name is Ed Thomas And I Approved This Message!
  • How a Bill Becomes Law
  • As Introduced As enacted As amended in committee As funded by joint committee As amended on the second reading As implemented
  • As reported by the media As understood by the Public What was actually needed!