FEDERAL BUDGET PROBLEMS
Economic Woes
•
•
•
•

National debt = $17 trillion +
US Budget Deficit = $1.2 trillion
National unemployment rate 7.3%
Un...
Where do Federal Tax Dollars Go?
FY 2013 Outlays
Other
17.5%

Medicare
13.8%
National Defense
18.2%

Medicaid
7.4%

Mandatory

Discretionary

BIA
0.07%

IH...
Domestic Discretionary Funding Is a
Shrinking Share of Total Program Costs
Share of Total

2001

2008

Change

Defense & s...
Domestic Discretionary Funding Has Been Growing More Slowly Than
Any Other Set of Programs
(Average annual rate of growth,...
WHAT CONTRIBUTES TO
DEFICIT SPENDING &

NATIONAL DEBT?
Sources of Federal Deficits - 2009-2019
9
Legislation Adding to Deficits:
Mostly Tax Cuts & Defense
Cost in 2005 of legislation enacted since January 2001
Domestic
...
THE MOST EXPENSIVE
MYTH:
Tax breaks for the rich will stimulate
the economy!
Dow Jones Index

1990

95

Clinton
years

2000

2005

Bush Tax
Cuts

2010

Obama
Elected
Tax Breaks Impact on
Unemployment Rates
Rate at January of Each Year
12

Tax
Breaks

10

8

6

Rate

4

2

0
2000

2001

2...
NATIVE AMERICAN
PROGRAM BUDGETS
Since 1980 Native American
programs have lost ground to
inflation while per capita
spending has gone up for other
citizens
Overall Per Capita Vs.
Indian Per Capita
80%

Relative Budget Change From 1975 (inflation adjusted)

Overall U.S. Per Capi...
When Congress has approved
increases to the BIA budgets
those increases went to Central
Office administration
BIA 2002 to 2008
1

2

4

3

2002

Change

5
Inflation

2008

16%

Tribal Priority
Allocation

$752,156

-$57,662

$694,53...
BUDGET INCREASES: 6 LARGEST INTERIOR AGENCY
FY2004 TO FY2012
Indian Affairs

8%

Reclamation

Land Management

Geo Survey
...
BUDGET INCREASES (DECREASES): 6 LARGEST INTERIOR AGENCIES
FY2012 PRESIDENT’S REQUEST VS. FY 2010 ENACTED LEVEL
$200
$150

...
SEQUESTRATION
Budget Control Act of 2011
1. Increased debt limit into 2013 in two stages
enabling payment for existing commitments
2. Cu...
Super Committee Fails So …
• Budget Sequestration suppose to start Jan
1, 2013 – delayed until end of March.
• Approximate...
Sequestration
• Budget Sequestration for FY 2013 – Partial
Year
– 5.21% Cut for the BIA
– $228 million cut for the IHS
– V...
Sequester Impact
• Lack of Super Committee agreement last fall
led to across the board spending
cuts, “Sequestration.” 5.2...
Impacts on Specific Indian Programs
• Across the Board cuts will be worse than .2%
compared to FY10:
– Due to recent year ...
Federal Budget - Hard Facts
 At least one-third of all Federal

spending is funded through
borrowing.
 Debt Ceiling. Ext...
BUDGET PROPOSALS
Speaker Boehner
 Proposed returning to FY 2008

budget levels
 A cut of about 15% from FY 2010
 FY 2008, after factorin...
Chairman Ryan Plan
 Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan gets nearly twothirds of its $4.5 trillion in budget cuts over 10
years fro...
CBO Report: Ryan Plan Would Nearly End
Most of Government Other Than Social
Security, Health Care, and Defense by 2050
• P...
Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY2012 Budget Resolution

35
Obama FY 2014 Budget
•
•
•
•

Would End Sequestration
Increases Tax Revenue
Imposes Cuts on Medicaid and Medicare
Basicall...
President’s FY 2014
Proposed Budget
• Bureau of Indian Affairs: $2.56 billion
– An increase of $31.2 million above FY 2012...
Notably…
the Administration proposes putting caps on
contract support costs moving it to a separate
account/providing them...
Department of the Interior
FY 2014 Budget = 4% Increase

• 5.11% all other than BIA
• BIA - 1.2% increase ($31 million)

–...
FY 2013 IHS Funding – Pres.
• IHS will be funded at $4.422 billion. That's
an increase from the $4.307 billion estimate
fo...
Non-Defense Discretionary Spending
3.6%
3.4%
Lowest Level since
1970

3.2%
3.0%

CBO Jan 2011 NDD
Projections

% of GDP

2...
House Act
 On Party Line voting, House has

passed legislation to hold the
Defense Budget Harmless, and
basically double ...
What is Likely?
 Federal Government shut down;

further risk US credit rating.
 CR for three months, under FY 2013
Seque...
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS NOT
MOTIVATED TO END

SEQUESTRATION
Blue / Red States in 2012
Blue / Red Counties in 2012
If Bush Tax Cuts had Expired
Sources of Federal Deficits - 2009-2019
Rich get Richer
The rich in this country
have never done better as
during this past decade!
Income Gains Have been Concentrated at the Top

Income Growth has been Very Uneven Recently

10/28/2013

cbpp.org
Widening Class Disparities
• The rich have never been richer
• 42 million Americans live in poverty
–
–
–
–

1 out of ever...
Countries Where Rich Are
Too Rich and Poor Too Poor
• Libya
• Egypt
• Syria
• Mexico

No wonder why there is so much
polit...
Thank You for Your Kind
Attention!
Gunalcheesh!
Howa!
My Name is Ed Thomas
And I Approved This Message!
How a Bill Becomes Law
As
Introduced

As enacted

As
amended in
committee

As funded
by joint
committee

As amended
on the second
reading

As
imp...
As reported
by the media

As
understood
by the Public

What was
actually
needed!
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report
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Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report

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  • The revenue line assumes that the 2001/2003 tax cuts and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) are extended and not paid for.
  • What happens if you try reduce the deficit without including revenues.
  • Accepting the deal reached in the Budget Control Act of 2011, with deficit reduction achieved through spending caps on most discretionary programs until 2021 and allowing the sequester to start in January 2013. This approach would devastate funding for federal tribal programs with blunt across-the-board cuts of 8.2 percent in FY 2013 to most Indian programs, including the Indian Health Service, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Indian housing, job training, Indian education, and others.Modifying the Budget Control Act only to protect the defense budget at the expense of non-defense domestic programs. This approach would exacerbate the impact of sequestration on the trust responsibilities to tribes in the federal budget.The House Republican leadership’s budget proposal: The House-passed plan would cut non-defense discretionary programs nearly $1.2 trillion below the already tight Budget Control Act budget caps.  Funding for non-defense discretionary programs would be cut by about 22 percent beyond cuts needed to meet the BCA caps, starting in 2014. The domestic cuts would be three times as deep as under sequestration in FY 2014.The President’s budget proposal: this proposal replaces the deep discretionary spending cuts in the sequester with a budget package that includes new revenues. The budget starts with a cap on appropriations that will cut nearly $1 trillion over the next 10 years as enacted in the Budget Control Act. However, it replaces the sequester with smaller, targeted cuts and at least $1.1 trillion in new revenues raised from those with the higher incomes and from corporations.
  • Ed Thomas - 2013 AFN Convention Tribal Report

    1. 1. FEDERAL BUDGET PROBLEMS
    2. 2. Economic Woes • • • • National debt = $17 trillion + US Budget Deficit = $1.2 trillion National unemployment rate 7.3% Unemployment in some Alaska villages 2 to 3 times that of national average • Stock market very volatile
    3. 3. Where do Federal Tax Dollars Go?
    4. 4. FY 2013 Outlays Other 17.5% Medicare 13.8% National Defense 18.2% Medicaid 7.4% Mandatory Discretionary BIA 0.07% IHS 0.12% Non-Defense 14.8% Social Security 21.6% Net Interest 6.5% Non-Defense, Discretionary portion of budget very small!
    5. 5. Domestic Discretionary Funding Is a Shrinking Share of Total Program Costs Share of Total 2001 2008 Change Defense & security 21.7% 29.2% +7.5% Social Security, Medicare/caid 45.9% 43.5% -2.4% Other mandatory programs 14.0% 12.5% -1.4% Domestic discretionary 18.4% 14.7% -3.7% Total program costs 100% 100% 0.0% Notes: Figures may not add due to rounding. The defense/security figures also include veterans, homeland security, and international affairs. Medicare is net of premiums. Figures for 2008 are CBO’s January estimate plus supplemental discretionary funding requested by President Bush. Totals exclude net interest. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
    6. 6. Domestic Discretionary Funding Has Been Growing More Slowly Than Any Other Set of Programs (Average annual rate of growth, from 2001 through 2008) nominal real real per person Defense & security 12.0% 9.1% 8.1% Social Security, Medicare/caid 6.5% 3.8% 2.8% Other mandatory programs 5.7% 3.0% 2.0% Domestic discretionary 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% Average, all program costs 7.3% 4.6% 3.6% Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
    7. 7. WHAT CONTRIBUTES TO DEFICIT SPENDING & NATIONAL DEBT?
    8. 8. Sources of Federal Deficits - 2009-2019
    9. 9. 9
    10. 10. Legislation Adding to Deficits: Mostly Tax Cuts & Defense Cost in 2005 of legislation enacted since January 2001 Domestic Discretionary (except Homeland Security), 7% Entitlements, 8% Tax Cuts, 48% Defense, Homeland Security, and International, 37% Source: CBPP calculations from Congressional Budget Office data. Reflects costs above an adjusted CBO current services baseline. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2005.
    11. 11. THE MOST EXPENSIVE MYTH: Tax breaks for the rich will stimulate the economy!
    12. 12. Dow Jones Index 1990 95 Clinton years 2000 2005 Bush Tax Cuts 2010 Obama Elected
    13. 13. Tax Breaks Impact on Unemployment Rates Rate at January of Each Year 12 Tax Breaks 10 8 6 Rate 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    14. 14. NATIVE AMERICAN PROGRAM BUDGETS
    15. 15. Since 1980 Native American programs have lost ground to inflation while per capita spending has gone up for other citizens
    16. 16. Overall Per Capita Vs. Indian Per Capita 80% Relative Budget Change From 1975 (inflation adjusted) Overall U.S. Per Capita Expenditure Indian Per Capita Expenditure 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 2001 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 19 77 19 75 -60%
    17. 17. When Congress has approved increases to the BIA budgets those increases went to Central Office administration
    18. 18. BIA 2002 to 2008 1 2 4 3 2002 Change 5 Inflation 2008 16% Tribal Priority Allocation $752,156 -$57,662 $694,534 -7.7% Other Recurring $586,968 $433,454 $1,020,422 73.8% Non-Recurring $72,798 -$ $ -% Central Office Ops $58,106 $116,954 $175,060 201.3% Regional Office Ops $62,679 -$18,182 $44,497 -29% Special Programs $267,102 -$91,414 $223,467 -33.7%
    19. 19. BUDGET INCREASES: 6 LARGEST INTERIOR AGENCY FY2004 TO FY2012 Indian Affairs 8% Reclamation Land Management Geo Survey Park Service Fish Wildlife 30% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
    20. 20. BUDGET INCREASES (DECREASES): 6 LARGEST INTERIOR AGENCIES FY2012 PRESIDENT’S REQUEST VS. FY 2010 ENACTED LEVEL $200 $150 + $140 million Millions $100 $50 $0 ($50) ($100) - $120 million ($150) NPS FWS USGS BLM BOR BIA
    21. 21. SEQUESTRATION
    22. 22. Budget Control Act of 2011 1. Increased debt limit into 2013 in two stages enabling payment for existing commitments 2. Cut discretionary spending by $917 B over 10 years 3. Established a bipartisan, bicameral committee to identify additional $1.5 trillion or more in deficit reduction by November 23. House and Senate to vote by December 23 without amendment or filibuster. 4. Balanced Budget Amendment to Constitution to be considered separately.
    23. 23. Super Committee Fails So … • Budget Sequestration suppose to start Jan 1, 2013 – delayed until end of March. • Approximate 7-10% across the board cuts in nearly all domestic programs; similar cuts to defense programs
    24. 24. Sequestration • Budget Sequestration for FY 2013 – Partial Year – 5.21% Cut for the BIA – $228 million cut for the IHS – VA Medical System not cut – Some low-income programs protected, but not the Tribal programs
    25. 25. Sequester Impact • Lack of Super Committee agreement last fall led to across the board spending cuts, “Sequestration.” 5.2% Cut. • Sequestration means all deficit reduction is from spending. • Non-Defense Discretionary budgets are already cut deeply through 10 year spending caps.
    26. 26. Impacts on Specific Indian Programs • Across the Board cuts will be worse than .2% compared to FY10: – Due to recent year reductions… – Indian Housing Block Grant -21% – Indian Student Education, -13% – Tribal Community Oriented Policing Grants -25% – BIA, Operation of Indian Programs - 14% – Indian Health Service is subjected to the higher 8.2% cut, not the 2% special rule that the CRS reported in August.
    27. 27. Federal Budget - Hard Facts  At least one-third of all Federal spending is funded through borrowing.  Debt Ceiling. Extended to about mid-February 2014  The BCA has life until 2021
    28. 28. BUDGET PROPOSALS
    29. 29. Speaker Boehner  Proposed returning to FY 2008 budget levels  A cut of about 15% from FY 2010  FY 2008, after factoring in inflation, was itself a cut of about 15% from FY 2002 levels
    30. 30. Chairman Ryan Plan  Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan gets nearly twothirds of its $4.5 trillion in budget cuts over 10 years from programs for the needy  $2.17 trillion in reductions from Medicaid and related health care.  $350 billion in cuts in mandatory programs serving low-income Americans (other than Medicaid).  $400 billion in cuts in low-income discretionary programs.
    31. 31. CBO Report: Ryan Plan Would Nearly End Most of Government Other Than Social Security, Health Care, and Defense by 2050 • Plan would shrink federal spending to 20 % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2015 and to 14.75 % of GDP by 2050 • The lowest level since 1951, a time when Medicare and Medicaid did not exist. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; last revised Feb. 3, 2004
    32. 32. Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY2012 Budget Resolution 35
    33. 33. Obama FY 2014 Budget • • • • Would End Sequestration Increases Tax Revenue Imposes Cuts on Medicaid and Medicare Basically hold Indian programs harmless, except for effects of inflation
    34. 34. President’s FY 2014 Proposed Budget • Bureau of Indian Affairs: $2.56 billion – An increase of $31.2 million above FY 2012 • $21.2 million less Contract Support increase – Current Rate of Inflation: 1.5% – $38.4 million x 2: $76.8 million
    35. 35. Notably… the Administration proposes putting caps on contract support costs moving it to a separate account/providing them on a contract by contract basis BIG ISSUE – WOULD OVERTURN RAMAH SUPREME COURT CASE DONE WITHOUT TRIBAL CONSULTATION; IN VIOLATION OF OBAMA EXECUTIVE ORDER ON CONSULTATION!
    36. 36. Department of the Interior FY 2014 Budget = 4% Increase • 5.11% all other than BIA • BIA - 1.2% increase ($31 million) –.8% less Indirect Cost ($10 million) – Inflation: 1.5% • If funded equitably to other DOI Bureaus BIA funding increases should be $134 million instead of $31 million
    37. 37. FY 2013 IHS Funding – Pres. • IHS will be funded at $4.422 billion. That's an increase from the $4.307 billion estimate for fiscal year 2012. • It's also an increase from the $4.069 billion that the IHS saw in fiscal year 2011. • Increase of $115 million. • Did not full fund Contract Support Costs • Partially protected from Sequestration
    38. 38. Non-Defense Discretionary Spending 3.6% 3.4% Lowest Level since 1970 3.2% 3.0% CBO Jan 2011 NDD Projections % of GDP 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% BCA Caps/Obama/ Domenici-Rivlin 2.2% Bowles-Simpson 2.0% BCA with Sequester 1.8% 1.6% Chairman Ryan's Budget 1.4% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    39. 39. House Act  On Party Line voting, House has passed legislation to hold the Defense Budget Harmless, and basically double cuts to the Domestic Discretionary Programs.  CR defunds Obamacare
    40. 40. What is Likely?  Federal Government shut down; further risk US credit rating.  CR for three months, under FY 2013 Sequestration, with further negotiation.  Negotiations fail and there is a second year of sequestration – worse than the first.
    41. 41. MEMBERS OF CONGRESS NOT MOTIVATED TO END SEQUESTRATION
    42. 42. Blue / Red States in 2012
    43. 43. Blue / Red Counties in 2012
    44. 44. If Bush Tax Cuts had Expired
    45. 45. Sources of Federal Deficits - 2009-2019
    46. 46. Rich get Richer The rich in this country have never done better as during this past decade!
    47. 47. Income Gains Have been Concentrated at the Top Income Growth has been Very Uneven Recently 10/28/2013 cbpp.org
    48. 48. Widening Class Disparities • The rich have never been richer • 42 million Americans live in poverty – – – – 1 out of every 6 15.6 % of all Americans 22% of all children The highest rate of poverty since 1993
    49. 49. Countries Where Rich Are Too Rich and Poor Too Poor • Libya • Egypt • Syria • Mexico No wonder why there is so much political unrest in these countries!
    50. 50. Thank You for Your Kind Attention! Gunalcheesh! Howa!
    51. 51. My Name is Ed Thomas And I Approved This Message!
    52. 52. How a Bill Becomes Law
    53. 53. As Introduced As enacted As amended in committee As funded by joint committee As amended on the second reading As implemented
    54. 54. As reported by the media As understood by the Public What was actually needed!

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