2009   |   Westergasfabriek   |   Amsterdam   |   http://eComm.ec
LTE:

Long Term Employment

                              Or
       Less Than Expected?
                                  ...
Opening thoughts

4G – Too little too soon?
Six concerns about the evolution of wireless:
  1.     Pursuit of high perform...
Predicting the next winning technology
Often the “best” doesn’t win
• Ethernet vs. Token ring
• 802.11b vs. HiperLAN
• Win...
What we would like in wireless…

Simplicity and economies of scale:
- One worldwide wireless standard for everything
- One...
Attractive attributes of LTE

Based on OFDMA giving:
• Scalable bandwidths for deployment flexibility and high data
  rate...
Planned Order




                 LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected?
                                      ...
…and the space (spectrum) to deploy it

Note use
of spacial
diversity!




                                               ...
But what we have…




                     LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected?
                              ...
…is the legacy




                  LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected?
                                    ...
Yuck!

                         1G

               3G
          5G        2G

                          4G




           ...
Wireless evolution 1990 - 2010
Increasing efficiency, bandwidth and data rates


                                         ...
Phases of Technology Adoption
1. Standardization 2. Regulation                    3. Physics                           4. ...
Technology evolution - Audio

Over the last century, audio has evolved from wax through shellac, vinyl,
metallic tape, to ...
Technology evolution – Cellular

Commercial Cellular phone technology started in the 70s with expensive
bulky and heavy pr...
Performance - Which is the best car?

               $2,500                           $1,500,000




      Answer: Both! I...
Top end wireless is a bit like the top end automotive
 • It is undeniably real
 • But is it affordable?




And once you h...
1001 bhp
                              At top speed, empties its fuel
Top Speed – 253 mph
                              ta...
If your supercar commute
   to work looks like this
  then you will have paid
for peak performance but
     you will exper...
Quiz #1 - High speed vs. high capacity
               At what average speed does the capacity (i.e.
                  cars...
So what really matters - Peak or Average?




               WoW!
          Now with predictive
               results!

 ...
What is enabling the apparent exponential growth
in wireless communications?
The capacity of a system to deliver services ...
Growth to date dominated by increasing cell count
If we apply Cooper’s law over the last 50 years we are looking at a grow...
Comparing wireless growth potential for the next
decade
                                                                  ...
Growth in peak / average spectral efficiency by technology

                   Spectral Efficiency bits / sec / Hz
 100
  ...
Projecting ahead shows the gap between average
and peak rates in a loaded cell will grow to 90x
                         P...
And on a linear scale
                  Peak rates      Average Efficiency   Spectrum   Capacity

1000000000


 900000000
...
Setting performance expectations –
      150 Mbps is your right!
                                     LTE: Long Term Emplo...
Examples of growing complexity:
Voice support
2G & 3G
• Single solution – circuit-switched services


3.9G/4G LTE
1. IMS –...
IMT Band explosion
 36.912 v9.0.0 Table 11.2.2-1 Operating bans for LTE-Advanced (E-UTRA operating bands)
               U...
Baseline LTE FDD single band architecture




 Source: R4-091204 “Study of UE architectures for LTE-A deployment scenarios...
4G: Tri-band aggregation plus
4x20 MHz contiguous operation



                   The Hedgehog PhoneTM
                   ...
And for the geeks – A growing gap between
conformance testing and real world operation
                 Attribute         ...
Concern regarding baseline LTE Rel-8
performance
LTE Rel-8 targets were based on 2x to 4x gains over a limited version of ...
OFDMA – An unproven cellular technology

Many benefits are expected from OFDMA
• Improved spectral efficiency
• Improved c...
MIMO – An unproven cellular technology

Much has been said about MIMO for many years
We are still a long way from proving ...
This is what we
Real life MIMO performance                                                     hear about :
              ...
Managing complexity is an exponential problem
(and Moore is not the solution)
Its not that systems can’t work it is primar...
Looking ahead to the Cost/benefits of LTE-
Advanced
                        Bandwidth
                                    ...
The macrocellular dilemma

To deliver true mobile broadband these three attributes are all
required:

    1. High data rat...
Evidence of growing problems in the delivery of
basic services
No time today for details but:
• Performance of MMS and vid...
In a mature market, Value > price > cost
              Price Data rate Price €              Cost /   Price /              ...
FCC decision on Net Neutrality

          “Broadband providers cannot discriminate against
           services or applicat...
Key lessons learned from 20 years of cellular

What we learned from GSM (2G)
      Scale matters -> 4B devices worldwide
 ...
What will it take for LTE to displace existing
cellular to deliver on the unified vision?
Sufficient clean spectrum in whi...
In pursuit of excellence

Could we improve on these?




Surely!
But why don’t we?
                             The return...
The future of wireless is bright…
 but the future will have to be low cost/complexity
Would you like some nybble and bytes...
Thank you for listening!




                                LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected?
            ...
Backup




          LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected?
                                             Moray R...
Geometry factor distribution in urban cells
                                                       90% of users      10% o...
In search of 21 Mbps




Source:




                       LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected?
             ...
Example of interference-limited throughput*

                                                 M            M           M
 ...
Impact of femtocell deployment on throughput

                                                M          M           M
  U...
CCDF of throughput with and without femtocells
                    Co-Channel, Self Calibrated HNB Tx Power               ...
Headline Sponsor




                      Platinum Sponsors




                        Gold Sponsors




2009   |   West...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Moray Rumney's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2009 Europe

1,583 views
1,506 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,583
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
53
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
93
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Moray Rumney's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2009 Europe

  1. 1. 2009 | Westergasfabriek | Amsterdam | http://eComm.ec
  2. 2. LTE: Long Term Employment Or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Agilent Technologies LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? © Copyright 2009 Agilent Technologies, Inc. Moray Rumney 28th October 2009
  3. 3. Opening thoughts 4G – Too little too soon? Six concerns about the evolution of wireless: 1. Pursuit of high performance is not keeping up with demand 2. Growing complexity 3. Evidence of diminishing network quality 4. Market and supply chain fragmentation 5. Growing costs 6. Immature market – confusion over role of value, price and cost Inspired by: Technology in the Recession: Less is Moore http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12932356 LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 2 28th October 2009
  4. 4. Predicting the next winning technology Often the “best” doesn’t win • Ethernet vs. Token ring • 802.11b vs. HiperLAN • Windows 3.1 vs. Unix • Iridium vs. GSM • Esperanto vs. English (or maybe Chinese...) “Perfection is the enemy of the good” Gustave Flaubert French Novelist 1821 - 1880 • Now it’s LTE vs. GSM, HSPA - and Wi-Fi LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 3 28th October 2009
  5. 5. What we would like in wireless… Simplicity and economies of scale: - One worldwide wireless standard for everything - One air interface - One frequency band - One core network - One application development framework - And no IPR (that we don’t own…) For 2G, GSM substantially achieved this in 1992 For 3G, UMTS tried to achieve this in 1999 but faltered For 4G, what is the outlook - will LTE deliver? LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 4 28th October 2009
  6. 6. Attractive attributes of LTE Based on OFDMA giving: • Scalable bandwidths for deployment flexibility and high data rates • Suitable for use with MIMO • Supports narrowband scheduling to take advantage of fading • Potential for higher efficiency than CDMA at wide bandwidths • Supports enhanced broadcast features (MBSFN) • Support for in-channel relaying (backhaul) Simpler low latency packet-only core network Support for QoS (e.g. for VoIP) LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 5 28th October 2009
  7. 7. Planned Order LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 6 28th October 2009
  8. 8. …and the space (spectrum) to deploy it Note use of spacial diversity! Denver LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 7 28th October 2009
  9. 9. But what we have… LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 8 28th October 2009
  10. 10. …is the legacy LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 9 28th October 2009
  11. 11. Yuck! 1G 3G 5G 2G 4G Heathrow LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 10 28th October 2009
  12. 12. Wireless evolution 1990 - 2010 Increasing efficiency, bandwidth and data rates IS-95A IS-136 802.11b 2G cdma GSM TDMA PDC 802.11a IS-95B HSCSD GPRS iMode 2.5G cdma 802.11g 802.11h IS-95C E-GPRS W-CDMA W-CDMA TD-SCDMA 3G cdma2000 EDGE FDD TDD LCR-TDD 802.11n 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DO HSDPA HSUPA 802.16d 3.5G Fixed Release 0 Release A Release B FDD & TDD FDD & TDD WiMAXTM 802.16e WiBRO UMB LTE Edge HSPA+ Mobile 3.9G Rel-8 Evolution WiMAXTM LTE- In 20 years of evolution 4G Advanced why has so little 802.16m Rel-10 come off the plate? LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 11 28th October 2009
  13. 13. Phases of Technology Adoption 1. Standardization 2. Regulation 3. Physics 4. Commerce The Committee The Test Maxwell’s The Shopping Room House Place Mall And then there was light… Where engineers Where products are Where electro- Where commercial consume lots of put on trial to prove magnetic law law determines coffee while creating their conformance determines if it whether anyone wireless law actually works actually buys it Just because the industry invents a new standard does not mean success is guaranteed. What determines commercial success? LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 12 28th October 2009
  14. 14. Technology evolution - Audio Over the last century, audio has evolved from wax through shellac, vinyl, metallic tape, to opto-mechanical discs and finally solid state silicon At each new generation the user perceived benefits have been undeniable meaning earlier generations have largely been obsoleted. LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 13 28th October 2009
  15. 15. Technology evolution – Cellular Commercial Cellular phone technology started in the 70s with expensive bulky and heavy products moving through the first true “handsets” and onto GSM and CDMA So is the added value of new generations slowing down? LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 14 28th October 2009
  16. 16. Performance - Which is the best car? $2,500 $1,500,000 Answer: Both! It depends on the problem you are trying to solve LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 15 28th October 2009
  17. 17. Top end wireless is a bit like the top end automotive • It is undeniably real • But is it affordable? And once you have purchased it, where and how often can you really experience it? LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney 28th October 2009
  18. 18. 1001 bhp At top speed, empties its fuel Top Speed – 253 mph tank in 12 minutes! 0 – 60 mph in 2.5 seconds 0 – 125 mph in 7.5 sec 0 – 250 mph in 16.7 sec 250 – 0 mph in 9.8 sec Price: $ 1,500,000 (plus tax!) LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney 28th October 2009
  19. 19. If your supercar commute to work looks like this then you will have paid for peak performance but you will experience average or poor performance LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney 28th October 2009
  20. 20. Quiz #1 - High speed vs. high capacity At what average speed does the capacity (i.e. cars per hour) of this road reach its peak? This is counter-intuitive: High 10 mph ? speed drives down capacity! 40 mph ? In wireless, high data rates consume disproportionately 70 mph ? more resources and provide less coverage for fewer users – 100 mph ? overall capacity reduces. 1000 mph? Improving capacity through higher average speeds is plain hard work In motoring terms, improving the average would require a whole new form of robotic control. LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 19 28th October 2009
  21. 21. So what really matters - Peak or Average? WoW! Now with predictive results! LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 20 28th October 2009
  22. 22. What is enabling the apparent exponential growth in wireless communications? The capacity of a system to deliver services is defined by three main factors: • The bandwidth of the available radio spectrum – in MHz • The efficient use of that spectrum – bits / second / hertz • The number of cells – this equates to spectrum reuse Efficiency Number of cells LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 21 28th October 2009
  23. 23. Growth to date dominated by increasing cell count If we apply Cooper’s law over the last 50 years we are looking at a growth in wireless capacity of perhaps 1,000,000 Allocating this growth between the axes of capacity looks roughly like this: 10000 2000 1000 Growth has historically been Growth factor 100 25 dominated by the 20 increase in the 10 number of cells 1 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 22 28th October 2009
  24. 24. Comparing wireless growth potential for the next decade 100 100 Growth potential 10 3 2 1 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells Using current projections, the increase of cell numbers (spectrum reuse) remains the dominant means of growing capacity LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 23 28th October 2009
  25. 25. Growth in peak / average spectral efficiency by technology Spectral Efficiency bits / sec / Hz 100 Peak efficiency lies around this line LTE 802.16e Average efficiency 10 HSDPA and hence capacity 1xEV-DO growth of deployed W-CDMA systems lags well 1 IS-95C behind and will level EDGE LTE target off due to inter-cell GPRS interference 1xEV-DO(A) 0.1 GSM EGPRS2 1/3 AMPS HSDPA (R7) Peak efficiency drives HSDPA (R5) W-CDMA (R99) up air interface cost & EGPRS 1/3 (R99) 0.01 EGPRS 4/12 (R99) complexity 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 You pay for the peak Average efficiency Peak efficiency but experience the average LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 24 28th October 2009
  26. 26. Projecting ahead shows the gap between average and peak rates in a loaded cell will grow to 90x Peak rates Average Efficiency Spectrum Capacity 1000000000 Data rates x 100000 100000000 Efficiency x 87 Efficiency, spectrum and capacity are Spectrum x 13 normalized to single-band GSM in 1992 83 users/cell occupying 25 MHz @ 9.6 kbps 10000000 1100x capacity A 90x gap will exist 1000000 by 2015 The outlook is that 100000 average efficiency and spectrum will fall further behind 10000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 peak rates The average efficiency, spectrum and capacity plots are normalized LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 25 28th October 2009
  27. 27. And on a linear scale Peak rates Average Efficiency Spectrum Capacity 1000000000 900000000 800000000 700000000 The capacity Macrocell crunch reality lies 600000000 somewhere 500000000 below this line 400000000 300000000 200000000 100000000 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 26 28th October 2009
  28. 28. Setting performance expectations – 150 Mbps is your right! LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 27 28th October 2009
  29. 29. Examples of growing complexity: Voice support 2G & 3G • Single solution – circuit-switched services 3.9G/4G LTE 1. IMS – preferred 3GPP solution 2. Circuit-Switched Fallback – preferred 3GPP alternative 3. VoLGA – UMA/GAN for LTE 4. Fast Track voice over LTE (NSN – SIP-based) 5. Proprietary solutions (e.g. Skype) Choice creates unwanted interworking complexity LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 28 28th October 2009
  30. 30. IMT Band explosion 36.912 v9.0.0 Table 11.2.2-1 Operating bans for LTE-Advanced (E-UTRA operating bands) Uplink (UL) operating band Downlink (DL) operating band Possible new bands Operating Duplex BS receive/UE transmit BS transmit /UE receive Band FUL_low – FUL_high FDL_low – FDL_high Mode (a) 3.4-3.8 GHz band 1 1920 MHz – 1980 MHz 2110 MHz – 2170 MHz FDD (b) 3.4-3.6GHz as well as 3.6-4.2GHz 2 1850 MHz – 1910 MHz 1930 MHz – 1990 MHz FDD 3 1710 MHz – 1785 MHz 1805 MHz – 1880 MHz FDD (c) 3.4-3.6 GHz band 4 1710 MHz – 1755 MHz 2110 MHz – 2155 MHz FDD 5 824 MHz – 849 MHz 869 MHz – 894MHz FDD (d) 450−470 MHz band, 6 830 MHz- – 840 MHz- 865 MHz – 875 MHz- FDD (e) 698−862 MHz band 7 2500 MHz – 2570 MHz 2620 MHz – 2690 MHz FDD 8 880 MHz – 915 MHz 925 MHz – 960 MHz FDD (f) 790−862 MHz ban 9 1749.9 MHz – 1784.9 MHz 1844.9 MHz – 1879.9 MHz FDD 10 1710 MHz – 1770 MHz 2110 MHz – 2170 MHz FDD (g) 2.3−2.4 GHz band 11 1427.9 MHz – 1447.9 MHz 1475.9 MHz – 1495.9 MHz FDD (h) 4.4-4.99 GHz band 12 698 MHz – 716 MHz 728 MHz – 746 MHz FDD 13 777 MHz – 787 MHz 746 MHz – 756 MHz FDD 14 788 MHz – 798 MHz 758 MHz – 768 MHz FDD 15* 1900 MHz – 1920 MHz 2600 MHz – 2620 MHz FDD 16* 2010 MHz – 2025 MHz 2585 MHz – 2600 MHz FDD 17 704 MHz – 716 MHz 734 MHz – 746 MHz FDD 18 815 MHz – 830 MHz 860 MHz – 875 MHz FDD 19 830 MHz – 845 MHz 875 MHz – 890 MHz FDD 20 832 MHz – 862 MHz 791 MHz – 821 MHz FDD 21 1447.9 MHz – 1462.9 MHz 1495.9 MHz – 1510.9 MHz FDD 22 3410 MHz – 3500 MHz 3510 MHz 3600 MHz FDD 33 1900 MHz – 1920 MHz 1900 MHz – 1920 MHz TDD 34 2010 MHz – 2025 MHz 2010 MHz – 2025 MHz TDD 35 1850 MHz – 1910 MHz 1850 MHz – 1910 MHz TDD 36 1930 MHz – 1990 MHz 1930 MHz – 1990 MHz TDD 37 1910 MHz – 1930 MHz 1910 MHz – 1930 MHz TDD 38 2570 MHz – 2620 MHz 2570 MHz – 2620 MHz TDD 39 1880 MHz – 1920 MHz 1880 MHz – 1920 MHz TDD 40 2300 MHz – 2400 MHz 2300 MHz – 2400 MHz TDD * Defined by ETSI for Europe only 41 3400 MHz – 3600 MHz 3400 MHz – 3600 MHz TDD LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 29 28th October 2009
  31. 31. Baseline LTE FDD single band architecture Source: R4-091204 “Study of UE architectures for LTE-A deployment scenarios” Nokia LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 30 28th October 2009
  32. 32. 4G: Tri-band aggregation plus 4x20 MHz contiguous operation The Hedgehog PhoneTM “An Antenna for every Occasion” Supports up to: • 19 frequency bands • 8 simultaneous radio technologies • 8x8 MIMO Fan cooled – Blow dry your hair while you chat… Source: (Excluding the hedgehog) R4-091204 “Study of UE architectures for LTE-A deployment scenarios” Nokia LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 31 28th October 2009
  33. 33. And for the geeks – A growing gap between conformance testing and real world operation Attribute Conformance testing Real world operation High, medium and zero - Real correlation based on MIMO Correlation matrix not linked to real antenna actual antenna pattern Fading channel Extended PA, VA, TU Channels with dynamic taps Adaptive Modulation & Off – UE becomes fading On – coding aims for constant coding channel discriminator symbol to noise at UE receiver CQI, PMI, RI Separate open loop tests Included as part of throughput Cell-edge Interference Static wideband Narrowband frequency- signal Gaussian selective based on loading Multiple UE, real scheduler with Scheduling None, Single UE frequency selectivity base on subband CQI/PMI Variable based on prevailing Transmission mode Fixed conditions Over The Air (OTA) Closed loop with real loading / Probably open loop antenna testing scheduler / interference LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 32 28th October 2009
  34. 34. Concern regarding baseline LTE Rel-8 performance LTE Rel-8 targets were based on 2x to 4x gains over a limited version of Rel- 6 HSPA • Type 1 receiver – 16QAM Single stream with Rx diversity A fair comparison would be with Rel-8 HSPA • Type 3i receiver • Add dual stream DL 2x2 MIMO • Add equalizer • Add interference cancellation • Add 64QAM On paper the differences between Rel-8 HSPA and Rel-8 LTE are minimal – perhaps 20% in favour of LTE In practise the advantage will be with the more mature HSPA and may stay that way LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 33 28th October 2009
  35. 35. OFDMA – An unproven cellular technology Many benefits are expected from OFDMA • Improved spectral efficiency • Improved cell edge performance • Better suited to MIMO To date there are no commercial OFDMA deployments using 1x frequency reuse • Clearwire using 3x for suburban, 6x urban @ 2.6 GHz • Single channel 10 MHz @ 700 MHz is a very different scenario OFDMA Narrowband frequency-selective scheduling creates non-Gaussian cell-edge interference • 3GPP simulations appear to have used the much easier Gaussian interference model which could inflate expectations CDMA creates Gaussian interference which can be modelled and cancelled LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 34 28th October 2009
  36. 36. MIMO – An unproven cellular technology Much has been said about MIMO for many years We are still a long way from proving its effectiveness in typical cellular environments In particular the evaluation of MIMO OTA - Over The Air • This is a radiated measurement that takes into account the all- important real antenna design • Expect much angst and gnashing of teeth… LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 35 28th October 2009
  37. 37. This is what we Real life MIMO performance hear about : 2x gains Variation due to instantaneous correlation Variation in the frequency domain not shown Most macrocell activity takes place in this region Variation due to fading and variable interference LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than MIMO from Taking LTE Expected? Standards to Starbucks Moray Rumney Page 36 Moray Rumney th October 2009 28 10th June
  38. 38. Managing complexity is an exponential problem (and Moore is not the solution) Its not that systems can’t work it is primarily that as complexity rises there are just so many operational combinations to design and test for For n elements there are n2 - n possible interactions. E.g. for 50 elements we have 2450 interactions… If 4 elements in a Conclusion: system are capable of Interaction must interacting either in a be minimized linear or complex But for a system with 9 since we cannot fashion there are six elements, there are 36 design or test bi-directional scenarios bi-directional scenarios to quality into to design and test for consider complex systems LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 37 28th October 2009
  39. 39. Looking ahead to the Cost/benefits of LTE- Advanced Bandwidth Enhanced Uplink Higher order MIMO CoMP Relaying Aggregation Peak data rates Spectral efficiency Cell edge performance Coverage UE cost Network cost Complexity (UE) (UE) (Network) (Network) LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 38 28th October 2009
  40. 40. The macrocellular dilemma To deliver true mobile broadband these three attributes are all required: 1. High data rates with the capacity and density to match 2. Ubiquitous coverage 3. Low or reasonable cost For macrocellular networks, pick any two! Conclusion: High efficiency macrocellular can’t do it alone. Some form of small cells is essential. LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 39 28th October 2009
  41. 41. Evidence of growing problems in the delivery of basic services No time today for details but: • Performance of MMS and video calls remain erratic • SMS becoming less reliable • Multiple receipts common • Interworking with CDMA2000 still not figured out after more than a decade – multiple issues • Network generated SMS spam • Welcome to the Netherlands. What? Again! • Voice connectivity problems between 2G/3G • Caller ID frequently fails LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 40 28th October 2009
  42. 42. In a mature market, Value > price > cost Price Data rate Price € Cost / Price / Relative Service / volume MByte MByte price SMS 160 Bytes €0.15 / €X €1000 400,000 message Voice 10 kbps €0.05 to €0.5 / € Y € 0.7 - € 7 300 - 3000 minute Data service 3 GBytes €20 / month € Y/5 € 0.007 3 (capped at 3 GBytes) Unicast Mobile 50 Hours €5 / month € Y/5 € 0.0023 1 TV (Capped at @ 100 50 hrs) kbps Cheap capacity generates unsustainable low value traffic New air interfaces provide a linear solution to an exponential problem LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 41 28th October 2009
  43. 43. FCC decision on Net Neutrality “Broadband providers cannot discriminate against services or applications by slowing them down” For wireless, how does it look like from the other end? Is that the DoD? I’d like dad’s newspaper delivered by helicopter please! No charge of course. Stubbed toe of the decade perhaps? LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 42 28th October 2009
  44. 44. Key lessons learned from 20 years of cellular What we learned from GSM (2G) Scale matters -> 4B devices worldwide Ubiquitous low-rate services work and are hugely profitable (voice/SMS) What we learned from UMTS (3G) A fat circuit-switched data pipe doesn’t cut it Coverage matters What we learned from HSPA (3.5G) Packet-switched data is essential for mobile broadband When the megabits finally start flowing, data density matters Pricing data at 1% of voice is not sustainable What we learned from the iPhone Usability and apps are vastly more critical to innovation than air interfaces Wi-Fi is an effective way to offload low-grade traffic from cellular LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 43 28th October 2009
  45. 45. What will it take for LTE to displace existing cellular to deliver on the unified vision? Sufficient clean spectrum in which to gain a foothold (e.g. European 800 MHz band) Network optimization to milk opportunities and overcome challenges with OFDM Demonstrated performance to drive obsolescence of legacy and evolving older technologies Solution to Voice support caused by the packet-only network Proof that IMS is a viable solution for mobile systems Economies of scale to drive down prices to below legacy systems Leave high volume / low value data to Wi-Fi and femtocells LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 44 28th October 2009
  46. 46. In pursuit of excellence Could we improve on these? Surely! But why don’t we? The return is not worth the pain LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 45 28th October 2009
  47. 47. The future of wireless is bright… but the future will have to be low cost/complexity Would you like some nybble and bytes with that Sir? iFi? LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 46 28th October 2009
  48. 48. Thank you for listening! LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 47 28th October 2009
  49. 49. Backup LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 48 28th October 2009
  50. 50. Geometry factor distribution in urban cells 90% of users 10% of users This plot shows the 100 % variation in geometry factor across a typical outdoor urban cell Very high spectral Cumulative distribution efficiency is only seen Most new high data when the geometry rate/MIMO factor is above 15 dB, performance which is an environment targets require that 90% of the user geometry factors population will not experienced by experience <10% of the user population In-building penetration loss will degrade performance further This puts a finite and 0% very low limit on indoor -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 performance when using outdoor transmission Geometry factor in dB systems LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 49 28th October 2009
  51. 51. In search of 21 Mbps Source: LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 50 28th October 2009
  52. 52. Example of interference-limited throughput* M M M HSDPA macrocell, single Rx + equalizer M M M 15 code 64QAM, 20 Mbps peak M M M M M M MM M 34 randomly distributed users M M M M M M Quiz #2: What is the combined M M throughput and why? M M MM M M M M M M 680 Mbps M 20 Mbps 13 Mbps That is a median throughput of 40 kbps 1.3 Mbps (0.26 b/s/Hz) * Source: 3GPP RAN WG4 R4-081344 LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 51 28th October 2009
  53. 53. Impact of femtocell deployment on throughput M M M Using the same macrocell add 96 femtocells M M M 24 users migrate to femtocells M M M M M M MM M 10 users remain on the macrocell M M M M M M Quiz #3: What is the combined M M throughput and why? M M MM M M M M M M 270 Mbps M 27 Mbps That is an median throughput of 8 Mbps 2.7 Mbps A 200x improvement! 1.3 Mbps The remaining macrocell users go from 50 kbps to 170 kbps LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 52 28th October 2009
  54. 54. CCDF of throughput with and without femtocells Co-Channel, Self Calibrated HNB Tx Power Co-Channel, Self Calibrated HNB Tx Power 1 1 0.9 0.9 24 HUEs + 10 MUEs/cell, 1 Rx 34 MUEs/cell, No HNBs, 1 Rx 0.8 0.8 24 HUEs + 10 MUEs/cell, 1 Rx 0.7 0.7 34 MUEs/cell, No HNBs, 1 Rx 0.6 0.6 CDF CDF 0.5 0.5 0.4 40 kbps @ 0.4 0.3 50 percentile 0.3 0.2 0.2 8 Mbps @ 50 percentile 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 All UEs Average Throughput (bps) 5 All UEs Average Throughput (bps) 6 x 10 x 10 Detail showing 40 kbps median for macrocell Full CCDF showing 8 Mbps median for macrocell plus 24 active femtocells Projected spectrum and efficiency gains could push the blue trace to the right by 6x, this femtocell study moved it by 200x LTE: Long Term Employment or Less Than Expected? Moray Rumney Page 53 28th October 2009
  55. 55. Headline Sponsor Platinum Sponsors Gold Sponsors 2009 | Westergasfabriek | Amsterdam | http://eComm.ec

×