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  • <br /> <br />
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  • G.K. Chesterton, early 20th century writer <br />
  • today is fixed. the near future is what we help our customers with- the design and development of “what’s next”- FutureNow. We observe the current state of things, we correlate these findings with the past, and we imagine the distant future. This helps is predict the near future- the futureNow. <br /> To drive the near future you have to look further. This is where I want to focus. I’m going to show some very ordinary inventions that are driving us towards an incredible future. <br />
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  • so this idea is clearly accepted and popular. I’m going to take this idea and explore it’s next steps. First, an industrial perspective. What’s going to happen to the business. And second, a more futuristic and sociological perspective. Both center around this idea of the “WHITE BOX” <br />
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  • The ‘white box’ is also a conceptual placeholder for a much larger vision <br />
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  • introduce recognize second life, the online world to borrow the terminology- second life and first life. The problem is, this world is trapped inside the box. It isn’t connected to first life. <br />
  • the two boxes represent the conceptual boundaries of each universe, both real-life and the digital world. Each plays by different rules, and is engaged in different modalities. <br />
  • time separation- we go to and from our computing experiences (sitting down at desk to use computer) They are also separate worlds/spaces, the Second within the First. <br /> When we want to compute (second life) we must shut out first life. <br />
  • innovation is helping to blur these lines- both in terms of time and space (second life showing up throughout more and more of first life. For example friendships driven-by not just facilitated-by social networks. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />
  • Let’s take a moment and watch a funny take on this phenomenon. Obviously they’ve stretched the idea into fantasy but it reflects the disparity in our first and second lives. <br />
  • Each plays by different rules, and is engaged in different modalities. but we’re trying to use them both for the same fundamental purpose- interpersonal communications <br />
  • let’s look at a series of technical and social evolutions that are driving this concept (merging) <br />
  • let’s look at a series of technical and social evolutions that are driving this concept (merging) <br />
  • (but the outcome is a huge sociological impact. ) <br /> let’s look at a series of technical and social evolutions that are driving this concept (merging) <br />
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  • next set of slides sets up argument like this: <br /> first to show there are existing modalities in comm. <br /> then describe origins of those, compare to current technical affordances. <br /> enclose them within the notion of “conversations” (or toss this point) <br /> then recount the idea that if you accept the notion of the blown-up computer then this implies open field of invention for comm. <br /> current modal dependency on technologies (devices, etc) is gone and comm is free to align with human needs and desires. <br />
  • affordance overhead refers to the notion that comm modes are limited by the overhead imposed by their technical affordances- transport, device, etc. <br />
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  • The first way to look at this is through the lense of history <br />
  • These modes show up in ordinary human engagement with or without technology <br />
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  • and even in modern multi-model forms <br />
  • and we can chart this idea in many many ways <br />
  • and we can chart this idea in many many ways <br />
  • and we can chart this idea in many many ways <br />
  • and we can chart this idea in many many ways <br />
  • The second is a more analytical way- by charting out the different ways we communicate we can see where many inventions come from <br />
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  • totems. <br /> when we’ve teased apart the problem like this, and we recognize the scope of human communications, we can realize the open field of invention still possible. <br />
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Mark Rolston's Presentation at eComm 2009 Mark Rolston's Presentation at eComm 2009 Presentation Transcript

  • A White Box Vision Mark Rolston Chief Creative Officer © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary.
  • “It is the beginning of all true criticism of our time to realize that it has really nothing to say, at the very moment when it has invented so tremendous a trumpet for saying it.” G.K. Chesterton © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 3
  • Focus History Now Future Now The Great Unknown Correlate Observe Predict Imagine © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 4
  • last year I left you with the idea that “it” ceases to be “it” © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 5
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. MEX: Personalization
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. MEX: Personalization
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. MEX: Personalization
  • It becomes a window © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 9
  • The physical object loses functional identity © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. MEX: Personalization
  • it can be anything you want it to be Open Systems Invite Innovation © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. MEX: Personalization
  • phone = computer © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 12
  • A white box © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 13
  • A white box © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 14
  • A white box © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 15
  • A ʻwhite boxʼ marketplace mix-n-match © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 16
  • Who? CE & Carriers OEMs Brands ISVs © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 17
  • Agnostic in form, time, place, and purpose. © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 18
  • computing today is modal © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 19
  • we have two lives © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 20
  • First Life © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 21
  • and Second Life © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 22
  • our natural lives are separate from our computing lives second life first life © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 23
  • this modality is experienced in both time and space time space © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 24
  • this modality is experienced in both time and space time space © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 24
  • but the lines are rapidly blurring time space © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 25
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 26
  • inevitably our first and second lives have become tangled © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 27
  • Ubiquitous Computing? © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 28
  • Second Life meets First Life © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 29
  • Technical innovations are driving this change (and itʼs not the stuff of science fiction, secret laboratories, or rocket scientists) © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 30
  • Touch was the important first step It bridges the physical and virtual © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 31
  • the Wii introduced 3d control © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 32
  • we can simulate 3d with head tracking © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 33
  • we can superimpose images in 3d-space and in real-time © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 34
  • we can superimpose images in 3d-space and in real-time © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 35
  • mobile devices have the horsepower © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 36
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 37
  • we are tagging our world © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 38
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 39
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 39
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 39
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 39
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 39
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 39
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 39
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 39
  • we are tagging our world © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 40
  • our spaces are becoming the computer © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 41
  • ...even at scale © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 42
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 43
  • Seimens Sensors our world is becoming the computer © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 44
  • our things are becoming the computer © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 45
  • we are becoming the computer Big Brother is Everyone © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 46
  • we are becoming the computer © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 47
  • we are becoming the computer © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 47
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 48
  • so what does this mean for communications? © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 49
  • IxDA 2009 Is this the future?
  • or is this? © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 51
  • is this vision really so alien? © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 52
  • the future will seem ordinary when it finally arrives © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 53
  • if computing is everything and everywhere then it ceases to matter. © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. MEX: Personalization
  • computing is in the world. Our world is the computer. They are for all practical purposes the same. So then what? © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 55
  • we must rethink “communications” © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 56
  • affordance overhead Randall Munroe xkcd.com © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 57
  • modalities © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 58
  • 4000 B.C. Writing 550 B.C. Mail 1844 Telegraph 1876 Telephone 1898 Answering machine 1901 Radio 1944 The Computer 1958 The Photocopier 1969 The Internet 1976 The Home Computer 1979 The Cell Phone 1994 The WWW Since Then: Email, SMS, IM, Blogs, Push to Talk, Message Boards, File Sharing, Social Networks, Twitter, Location/Mapping, etc. etc. © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 59
  • NORMAL CONVERSATION 2-way, synchronous “hello”....“hello” HANDSET STRATEGY 60
  • CONFERENCE CALL 3 or more, synchronous “Iʼm glad we could all get together...” HANDSET STRATEGY 61
  • MESSAGING 2-way, asynchronous “call me back when you get this message” HANDSET STRATEGY 62
  • COMMAND 1 to many, required reception “move on my command” HANDSET STRATEGY 63
  • CALL AND RESPONSE 1 to 1, asynchronous “come-in good buddy, whatʼs your 10-4?” HANDSET STRATEGY 64
  • POLLING 1 to many, asynchronous, fixed response “Invitation RSVP” HANDSET STRATEGY 65
  • BROADCASTING 1 to many, synchronous, one-way “One small step for man...” HANDSET STRATEGY 66
  • MULTIMEDIA, MULTIMODAL voice, text, video, gui VOICEMAIL MESSAGING PHONE CALL PTT (ring) “hello...oh, (beep) “Coors ok?” “you have one new hi Jack” message...” (beep) “ugh” “Hi Bill, Iʼm glad youʼre “hi Bill, this is jack, let me (beep) “fine, Shiner coming. know if you are coming to then?” the party” Bring more beer. (beep) “great” ok?” (beep) “ok, got it, on my way” ONE CONVERSATION. MANY MODES. HANDSET STRATEGY 67
  • phatic formal © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 68
  • personal phatic formal curated © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 69
  • personal anonymous phatic formal authenticated curated © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 70
  • personal one-one anonymous phatic formal authenticated many-many curated © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 71
  • © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 72
  • What happens to our stuff? © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 73
  • we can devise a new concept of mobile © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 74
  • These become be actors, not boundaries modes device person place © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. MEX: Personalization
  • form follows meaning © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 76
  • EXTRA SLIDES © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary.
  • structure notes: Chapters: 1. review last year, basic purpose of this talk. - near future anectdote - 2. white box market concept 3. from mobile ʻdeviceʼ to mobile ʻcontextʼ- tell story of disagregation of devices to other means - open with small computer argument - make small note about “linear invention” - then show second+first life cascade (videos, etc) - then provocation of where this might end up 4. after basic point show world of objects/contexts that might fit into this new way - aka. “the social and market implications of #3” - include robertʼs “not about devices but about people” argument - get out of washington argument made about obama. 5. bifrucation of mobile into ʻsmall computersʼ and ʻcoversationsʼ (modalities) and explore invention possible on either side) -perhaps this point foes before #3 1. review my point from last year- hanset quot;itquot; is no longer 'it' as in it's really a portal or hole into a software experience. 2. to get our head around this i bring up the white box notion- the simplest way to look at it is the disentanglement of software and hardware. 3. expand on this white box concept to convey entaglement of first life with second life (real world and virtual world) 4. end with idea that we need to seperate conversation of mobile into comm and computing. Computing (as I show in steps 1-3) is blowing out into the © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 79
  • conversations © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 80
  • What future does this image suggest? © 2007 frog design. Confidential & Proprietary. 81