Jaap Van Til's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2009 Europe

Prof Ir. Jaap van Till Telecommunication and Networking Group Technology Faculty HAN University of Applied Sciences, NL eComm Emerging Communications Conference Oct 28-30 2009 “ What’s next in Telecom, Mobile & Internet Communications” Amsterdam Oct 29 08.45 – 09.05 The Motor: How Networking will get us out of the Crises The question is no longer what PPL can do with telecom but what telecom does to (groups of) People Version 2 “ Let the beauty we love be what we do . There are 00s of ways 2 kneel & kiss the ground.” Rumi, 13th century Sufi poet (recent Tweet on #iranelection)

Early 21th Century Economics: Lessons for all Market imperfections visible State better ? Bad memories …….
Two Nobel Prizes 2009 relevant for our sector ICT Networks:
For Physics: Charles Kao for long distance comm on optic fibers
For Economics: Mrs Elinor Ostrom for het work on “ Commons ”
Neo Classic Economists: Market / State & “TRAGEDY of the Commons”
People are not cows! Possible “ Commedy of the Commons “
Or even “ TRIUMPH of the Commons “!!!
Examples : ISOC IETF Internet process of improvement, Wikipedia, YouTube
Open Source SW, Internet Exchanges, SURFnet, Google, Twitter
Flower Auctions, Wi-Fi , Mesh Networks, “waterschappen”
Peer-to-Peer : in total more is contributed than taken out
Key: What do we share (non competitive) and what not shared (competitive)
Choices and rules understood by THE COOPERATIVE

Mark Cooper [22] The U-Turn !! Inside-out and Outside-in OPEN COOPERATIVE COMMONS like Frequency bands

Mark Cooper : Examples

The FORCE of COOPERATION by P2Peerialists DRIVERS BEHIND the IMPACT OF INTERNET & TELECOM : Networking Effects 1. Broadcasting of info: Value ~ grows with number of listeners, viewers N Sarnoff’s Law (value for the broadcaster/ advertiser/ spindoctor) 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + ……….(N) 2. Communication V ~ N 2 Metcalfe’s Law N + N + N + N + N ……….(N) (Odlyzko-Tilly Law V ~ N Log N) 3. Group Membership V ~ 2 N Reed’s Law 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 ……….(N) ( + Multi Tribe Membership by networking ) 4. Connected people working together V ~ N ! Van Till’s Synthecracy Netw. Law Upper bound of possible combinations of contributions N ! = N * N-1 * N-2 * …..* 2 * 1 (N) Total space of cooperation = number of configurations in time/space when each unique and diverse individual contributes and shares resources and knowledge. [14] Examples: teams, communities of practice, multiuser games, simulation Grids, virtual labs Mashup Team, Flock, Herd, Evolution by flexible learning and Group Selection [9,10]

Cooperative NETWORK i.e. WAVE can scale ! Different angles! The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by Synthesis < distance > Max. Size N Does not scale
Issues:
Simple
Linear
Static
Issues:
- Complex
Non linear
Dynamic

The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by network sharing of contributions Different angles ! b. Resolution ~ < distance > contrast Array Grid IT CAN SCALE UP !! Clusters a. Sensitivity ~ teledensity N*N CORRELATION N ! Combinations FFT NETWORK “network Lenses Technology It can coordinate, inform, self organise Global Brain 2012

Synthecracy The Trias Telematica : clustering of roles in the NetTech Age [ van Till 1988, version March 31 2008] CIVIL SOCIETY empowered Civilians volunteers Freedom of Choice, users microtransactions<Douglass North> virtual communities <Maslov ++> distant friend links, P2P, complexity horizontal value chains, share Synthesis  Synergy, distr. models * open source softw. dev. * ISOC IETF, organic growth * mashups, self org netw’s general public Interest STATE Governments Institutions (unipolar extreme: bureacratic controlaholicism) Reliability and Equality in treatment by Law MKT Businesses Enterprises The power of EBITDA Risk/ Reward vent. Partnerships Brotherhood s (unipolar extreme: dominant monopolies) The power of ideas and know how The power of position (unipolar extreme: selfcentered, intolerance, isolation) [ Separation of State Powers (Montesquieu)] executive legislative judiciary

Sea of Green community on: #iranelection (topic on Twitter .com) Facebook , BBC Farsi satTV Youtube, Internet, SMS Many parallel paths [4] cannot be blocked. Volunteer actions [5] Iranians calling for non violent Reform, not Revolution [6]. Economy does not work, even without sanctions. What ppl do with technology ? After Gustave Eiffel, St Cyr, France Surprises and innovations Rooftop chants Outside Home !! Mutual help by unrelated unselfish [7] Show the truth Give practical advice & recipes Make overviews, aggregates Show flourishing art and culture What does Network Technology do to PPL ???!!!

(Fake: Newspaper montage) Symbols IRAN : Surprise uprising after 30 years of oppression[1] [2], now 2 months old Emancipation of 35 million women: show no fear any more 70 % of university students are women 60 % of population are younger than 30 Culture of (micro) blogging

Monument for the Angels of Iran
viewing from different angles –
Yes, we can Help Eachother !! August 2009, JvT

Conclusion :
After more (elite democracy) or less (mkt creative destruction) successful
versions of Aristocracy, Meritocracy, Media-Consumocracy we will have
Synthecracy by massive use of network technology.
Crux is distinction what to share and what not:
Do not try to share soil, machines , policy, beliefs or utopia’s.
Authorities and hierarchies are no longer very relevant. Thing that work are.
Use the creative construction networking force of sharing & combining
idea’s/ knowledge/ solutions that have shown to be working =
Synthecracy. What unique specialised skill can you contribute ??
Around 2012 we enter the age of global network synergy
We wish you good connections !

Sources [1] Images from the Sea of Green http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quPXg_GoTOk [2] Farsi PDF magazine http://bit.ly/3tEjZx [3] van Till “Technologies of Flocking” http://www.scienceguide.nl/article.asp?articleid=107531 Science Guide July 3 2009 , including link to Stonier article. [4] Iran’s Modern Communications http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8ROCzKzQNc&feature=related [5] http://www.haystacknetwork.com/ [6] American journalists about Iran http://fora.tv/2009/07/01/Tweeting_The_Revolution [7] Peter Csermely , “Weak Links" -- Stabilizers of Complex Systems from Proteins to Social Networks”; Springer 2006 [9 ] Rao, “Market Rebels – How Activists Make or Break Radical Innovations” ; 2009, Princeton University Press [8 ] Shirky, “Here Comes Everybody – How Change Happens when People Come Together; 2009, Penguin [10] Earls. “HERD – How to Change Mass Behaviour by Harnessing our True Nature”; revised edition 2009, Wiley [11] Carlota Perez, 2009 Open Democracy Journal; http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/economics/email/how-to-make-economic-crisis-creative [12] Perez, http://www.carlotaperez.org/papers/4-technologicalrevolutionsparadigm.htm#comienzo [13] Perez, http://www.carlotaperez.org/papers/2-technologicalrevolutionsparadigm.htm [14] Lawrence Lessig about the re-use of intellectual property http://wiki.lessig.org/index.php?title=TheKeenReader [15] Peizer, “ The Dynamics of Technology for Social Change – lessons learned from the field” ; 2006, iUniverse Inc [16] Gene Sharp “ From Dictatorship to Democracy – A Conceptual Framework for Liberation, The Albert Einstein Institution 2002, Original version by Khit Pyaing , Bangkok in 1993. PDF is online. [17] Popovic, Milivojevic, Djinovic “Nonviolent Struggle – 50 Crucial Points” Manual ; 2006 CANVAS Belgrade, online as 50CP_Farsi.pdf or 50CP_English.pdf [18] Siegfried Woldhek http://www.Nabuur.com [19] Michel Bauwens P2P Foundation http://p2pfoundation.net/The_Foundation_for_P2P_Alternatives [20] Template Twitter Strategy for Government Departements (UK mInistries) [21] Fleetwood Mac, “Don’t stop Thinking about Tomorrow” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8arvEzHsA8 [22] Mark Cooper ” FROM WIFI TO WIKIS AND OPEN SOURCE: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF COLLABORATIVE PRODUCTION IN THE DIGITAL INFORMATION AGE ” Telecommunications & High Technolgy Law Vol 5, 9/7/2007 Stanford Technologies of Flocking: creative construction towards the Synthecracy Society

Addendum

No dictatorships Teleden sity: Fixed phone line conn / 100 inhab Yearly GNP/ inh. Source: Siemens 1997 <--Stonier [art 1983] See [3] ? ?

Napoleon’s army and bureaucracy Command & Control Information Simple Linear Static Networked P2P Cooperation Creative Construction Coordination Hierachies and Authorities less relevant Contributions that WORK Cooperation Complex, non-linear, dynamic Now with Network Technolgy We Can ! Value is in the Link / Relation Value is in the centre/ node, authority

Network Technology removes obstacles (Liebig’s Law ) Something changed !! see Shirky [8] I Governance PR, Decisions Broadcasting Media Newspapers, TV Advertising Propaganda Spin Doctors [20] II Democracy and Telecommunication Dialogue , in panels on TV Referendum online E-democracy Website input, reactions Email Diversity of Views Majority Rule with respect for minority III Synthecracy Combination of Things that Work Compl Cooperation MSN, Blogging Tribes Synthesis Twitter Youtube Synergy, Emergent Behaviour Surprises, Value creation

Development of the Networking Cooperation Paradigm towards Synthecracy 1. Engineers developing working things together examples : ISOC IETF: Internet Engineering Taskforce IEEE Wi-Fi, Process of Improvements !! Linux, Open Source Software QL !! 2. Economic Innovation in Business Processes Disruptive Innovations : Rebels & Activists [9,10] i.e. Broadband FttH Analysis of Carlota Perez to get out of the crisis ad recession [12,13] After the creative destruction and meltdowns  Creative Construction 3. Social networks and political processes P2P Foundation [19] , Perez [11 ], [15] Rebalance of the Trias Telematica by political parties [16,17,18] Sea of Green IRAN

THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM ( Perez [12] A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 1) CONVENTIONAL COMMON SENSE NEW EFFICIENCY PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES COMMAND AND CONTROL
Centralized command
Vertical control
Cascade of supervisory levels
"Management knows best"
Central goal-setting and coordination
Local autonomy/Horizontal self-control
Self-assessing/self-improving units
Participatory decision-making
STRUCTURE AND GROWTH
Stable pyramid, growing in height and complexity as it expands
Flat, flexible network of very agile units
Remains flat as it expands
PARTS AND LINKS
Clear vertical links
Separate, specialized functional departments
Interactive, cooperative links between functions, along each product line
STYLE OF OPERATION
Optimized smooth running organizations
Standard routines and procedures
"There is one best way"
Definition of individual tasks
Single function specialization
Single top-down line of command
Single bottom-up information flow
Continuous learning and improvement
Flexible system/Adaptable procedures
"A better way can always be found"
Definition of group tasks
Multi-skilled personnel/ Ad hoc teams
Widespread delegation of decision making
Multiple horizontal and vertical flows
PERSONNEL AND TRAINING
Labor as variable cost
Market provides trained personnel
People to fit the fixed posts
Discipline as main quality
Labor as human capital
Much in-house training and retraining
Variable posts/Adaptable people
Initiative/collaboration/motivation

THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM (Perez [12]) A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE ( part 2 ) Prof. Carlota Perez shows us the way out of the crises ! General Purpose Technolgy (GPT): Electro / mechanical/ chemical  ICT / Network Technology EQUIPMENT AND INVESTMENT
Dedicated equipment
One optimum plant size for each product
Each plant anticipates demand growth
Strive for economies of scale for mass production
Adaptable/programmable/flexible equipment
Many efficient sizes/Optimum relative
Organic growth closely following demand
Choice or combination of economies of scale, scope or specialization
PRODUCTION PROGRAMMING
Keep production rhythm; Use inventory to accommodate variation in demand.
Produce for stock; shed labor in slac
Adapt rhythm to variation in demand
Minimize response time ("Just-in-time")
Use slack for maintenance and training
PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT
A specific measure for each department (purchasing, production, marketing, etc.)
ercent tolerance on quality and rejects
Total productivity measured along the whole chain for each product line
Strive for zero defects and zero rejects
SUPPLIERS, CLIENTS AND COMPETITORS
Separation from the outside world:
Foster price competition among suppliers Make standard products for mass customers Arms length oligopoly with competitors
The firm as a closed system
Strong interaction with outside world:
Collaborative links with suppliers, with customers and, in some cases, with competitors (Basic R&D for instance)
The firm as an open system

Jaap Van Til's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2009 Europe

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Jaap Van Til’s Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2009 Europe — Presentation Transcript

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