Andreas Constantinou's Presentation at eComm 2009

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  • We write define markets – ODP, AIS, open source
















  • Andreas Constantinou's Presentation at eComm 2009

    1. 1. Mobile Megatrends 2009 (excerpts) Andreas Constantinou, Ph.D. Research Director, VisionMobile
    2. 2. Business intelligence selected VisionMobile analyst reports Five Defining The New Age of MDM Case On-Device Traits of Open Handset Study: Motorola Portals: Source Customisation: (Ovum) Beyond WAP (Informa) 2006-2011 (ARCchart) (ARCchart) GPLv2 vs GPLv3 Firmware OTA: Mobile High-Capacity White Paper From Hype to Operating SIMs Market Reality Systems: The (Informa) (ARCchart) New Generation Mobile Software Open Source in Activating the Mobile Management Mobile: Idle Screen: Megatrends Report 2007-2012 Uncharted 2008 (Informa) Territory (Informa)
    3. 3. Market-how maps distilling market noise into market sense Mobile Industry Atlas The 100 million club :a visual map of who's who in the : the watchlist of software companies mobile handset industry, showcasing whose products have been embedded 400+ leading companies across 30 on more than 100 million cellular market sectors. handsets
    4. 4. The Eight Centers of Gravity
    5. 5. From horizontal to vertical structure From the vertically integrated devices 20 years ago, to the horizontal enabler era of ODMs and OSes, and again to a vertical integration of hardware + software + services with Nokia, Google et al start based on the Double Helix by Charles Fine
    6. 6. Centers of Gravity Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of power Google, LiMo, Nokia, Qualcomm, Apple, Microsoft, Adobe, Intel are building vertically integrated solutions and related ecosystems, in effect: Centres of Gravity Google, LiMo, Nokia, Qualcomm, Apple, Microsoft, Adobe, Intel are building vertically integrated solutions and related ecosystems in effect: Centres of Gravity ecosystem players vertical solution
    7. 7. Consolidation of power Starting from software or hardware, and building upwards the value wars are moving up the stack!
    8. 8. Consolidation of power
    9. 9. Outlook - RIM aggressively moving into forming a centre of gravity - LiMo’s future is uncertain: A la carte approach of software standardisation is not viable - Will Adobe capitalise on its impressive addressable market (40% of handsets sold) or will it suffer from same setbacks as Sun’s Java? - Can Sony Ericsson elevate Capuchin from a toolkit to a platform? - Will Nokia divorce its Internet and manufacturing personae? -Plus: networks are now moving into horizontal structure; see the MVNO growth in Europe and the NaaS phenomenon (see visionmobile.com/megatrends)
    10. 10. Open is the New Closed
    11. 11. Open is the New Closed - Open source is moving from early adoption to maturity across all handset OEMs - Multiple major mobile open source efforts: Android, Symbian/S60, LiMo, Qt, WebKit, Java ME, MIDP3, AOL OMP, Qt, GTK, Eclipse IDE,.. Key benefits: - Shares cost and risk of developing software building blocks - Speeds up innovation via third party contributions Key risks: - Lack of education and established best practices in mobile OSS
    12. 12. Licenses vs Governance models license type Proprietary community license dual license (commercial + paid-for copyleft) Funambol Rhomobile OKL4 phoneME strong copyleft (GPL) hobbyists Linux kernel weak copyleft GTK+ (LGPL, MPL, platform Foundation Foundation EPL, ..) Participating developers Qt GTK+ non-copyleft (APL, others) Android OMP Moto MIDP3 permissive (BSD, MIT, ..) WebKit opinion moderator members only single leaders based company governance model
    13. 13. Licenses vs Governance models which licenses and governance models are commonly used? license type Proprietary community license dual license (commercial + paid-for copyleft) Funambol Rhomobile OKL4 phoneME strong copyleft (GPL) hobbyists Linux kernel similar license, weak copyleft GTK+ (LGPL, MPL, varied governance platform Foundation Foundation EPL, ..) Participating developers Qt GTK+ non-copyleft (APL, others) Android OMP Moto MIDP3 permissive (BSD, MIT, ..) WebKit opinion moderator members only single leaders based company governance model
    14. 14. Licenses vs Governance models While: - Licenses are standardised, converged and well understood 4 licenses used most often in mobile projects (LGPL, EPL, APL, BSD) - Governance models are proprietary, diverging and poorly understood And while: - Licenses are about source control source code access, modification, contribution and distribution - Governance is about product control product modification, forking, roadmap, IPR, membership fees..
    15. 15. How open is an OSS project? Some questions to ask: - Is the source code publically available or to members only? Are code check-ins publically accessible ? Are the minutes from meetings publically availably? Are there any fees or contractual commitments (NDAs, etc) required for members? Who has access to check-in code? (and what is the process/medium for check-ins) - Who has the authority to release code and binaries (how is the release schedule determined)? Who is entitled to branch source code ? How is the roadmap formed ? What is the process and who has voting rights ? Are IP rights (patents, copyrights, etc) of contributions maintained or automatically transferred? - Do contributors have to transfer patents contained in the contributions ? - Are there any safe harbour provisions for contributors to the source code ?
    16. 16. Open is the New Closed Governance models allow OSS use while maintaining control LiMo Foundation: open by inheritance Open because its members’ handsets are built on top of the Linux kernel Zero community contributions in two years since foundation (hired community manager in 4Q08). Only 40% of R1 code is OSS, rest is proprietary Symbian Foundation: open source capitalism Open to compete with Android, marginalise Windows Mobile and make UIQ/MOAP irrelevant Open so as to reduce barriers to innovation, while lowering costs and risk of software development Nokia will have most influence over roadmap due to gravity of contributions: open source capitalism Android: open as a Trojan horse Members can access code, but Google controls commits and product management Commercial agreements allow Google to bundle apps and services on Android handsets
    17. 17. Thank you! contact: andreas@visionmobile.com @andreascon For more trends: Mobile Megatrends 2009 visionmobile.com/megatrends Mobile Open Source: workshop covering economics, licensing, governance models, communities, operating systems, standards, case studies and strategies. visionmobile.com/workshops

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