C LIMATE  C HANGE AND  V IETNAM’S  C OASTS.  THOUSANDS OF INFORMATION CHALLENGES  AND OPPORTUNITIES.   Boris Fabres Consul...
I f CONSAL XIV was in October 2008 in Hanoi
L and –  S ea –  A tmosphere  I nterface   Sea Level Rise  Tides  Sea Surface Temperature Waves  Ocean Currents Wind,  Rai...
C oastal  V ulnerability:  P eople and  F ood   Each Dot  ( ● )  is 100 km 2   Rice planted Elevation Elevation + Poverty ...
Projected Temperature & Sea Level Rise   Cities at Risk  Sea Level Sea Surface  Temperature Pacific Ocean 1957-2006 Sea Su...
Need for Information Integration  Physical, Life and Social Sciences <ul><li>●  The Challenge     More complex. Wider envi...
Coastal Climate Science Knowledge – “Deluge” (2007)   IPCC 4th Assessment > 18,300 scientific publications reviewed (2006)...
Coastal Climate Science Knowledge – “Drought”   <ul><li>(2001)  Only   28%  papers on low income countries in high impact ...
Climate Science Knowledge Creation Challenges and Opportunities in Vietnam <ul><li>1.   Context --  Priority competes with...
Accessing Climate Science Knowledge   Challenges and Opportunities in Vietnam <ul><li>Costs --  foreign journals expensive...
The Media as Partners <ul><li>Situation in Vietnam   </li></ul><ul><li>●   Neilsen surveys (2006-2007 increase)  4%  to  9...
Information Issues  in the Climate Change Campaign <ul><li>●   Combining “Hard” and “Soft” approaches   </li></ul><ul><li>...
“ Climate Change” Information Professionals <ul><li>Continuous Learning  and professional skills development  --  new conc...
Thank You   20 + Years IPCC 15 + Years UNFCCC 10 + Years Kyoto Protocol   We do not have much time
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3. BORIS FABRES_.ppt

  1. 1. C LIMATE C HANGE AND V IETNAM’S C OASTS. THOUSANDS OF INFORMATION CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES. Boris Fabres Consultant, Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development (MCD), Hanoi, Vietnam Email: bafabres@yahoo.com CONSAL XIV, 21-22 April 2009, Hanoi, Vietnam
  2. 2. I f CONSAL XIV was in October 2008 in Hanoi
  3. 3. L and – S ea – A tmosphere I nterface Sea Level Rise Tides Sea Surface Temperature Waves Ocean Currents Wind, Rainfall River Flow Air Temperature Land Temperature UV Radiation MULTIPLE EFFECTS and INTERACTIONS Single or Additive, Feedbacks, Interactive, Non-linear Physical, Chemical, Biological, Social Timing, “After-Shocks” Scale
  4. 4. C oastal V ulnerability: P eople and F ood Each Dot ( ● ) is 100 km 2 Rice planted Elevation Elevation + Poverty Elevation + Rice Blue < 1m
  5. 5. Projected Temperature & Sea Level Rise Cities at Risk Sea Level Sea Surface Temperature Pacific Ocean 1957-2006 Sea Surface Temperature South China Sea 1982-1991 2000-2009 2020-2029 2040-2049 2060-2069 Monthly Max.30ºC+ 1 ----- 4 mm/Y
  6. 6. Need for Information Integration Physical, Life and Social Sciences <ul><li>● The Challenge More complex. Wider environmental, development and humanitarian issues than in the past </li></ul><ul><li>● Scales of Understanding Multiple stressors, unexpected results, coping capacities, feed- backs, macroeconomic capital flows, migration, structural change </li></ul><ul><li>● New Collaboration “Earth System Science”, “Global Change Science” combining traditional physical, life and social sciences </li></ul><ul><li>● Institutional Changes Organization, methods of work, information sharing, prioritizing and sequencing --- IPCC (2007) identified over 200 priority areas </li></ul><ul><li>● Communication Innovative, accurate and ethical campaigns, credible leadership </li></ul>
  7. 7. Coastal Climate Science Knowledge – “Deluge” (2007) IPCC 4th Assessment > 18,300 scientific publications reviewed (2006) 400,000 blogs discussing the environment and conservation (2003-1971) >28,497 authors - biogeochemistry of coastal ecosystems (2006-1993) Marine climate change literature increased exponentially Number of Authors Social Sciences Coastal Geomorphology Resilience Adaptation Vulnerability Coral Theses & Publications
  8. 8. Coastal Climate Science Knowledge – “Drought” <ul><li>(2001) Only 28% papers on low income countries in high impact conservation journals And 15% primary authors </li></ul><ul><li>(2000-1999) Co-authorship with local scientists on research in 48 least developed countries occurred in only 30% of papers </li></ul><ul><li>(2001-1992) In 4579 freshwater biology papers on Asia, only 1.6% authored or co- authored by Asia-based scientists </li></ul><ul><li>IPCC (2007) assessment used 28,586 biological data series, only 39 from outside Europe and North America </li></ul><ul><li>(2008) Combined research on coral reefs, mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows only about 33% of publications on tropical forests </li></ul><ul><li>(2004-1984) In top 60% of ecology journals no significant change in proportion of conservation research devoted to marine or freshwater systems </li></ul>“ … . even basic data to provide understanding of the vulnerability of fisheries and aquaculture to climate change are lacking …. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2008)
  9. 9. Climate Science Knowledge Creation Challenges and Opportunities in Vietnam <ul><li>1. Context -- Priority competes with immediate and visible national livelihood needs (uncertainties, extended time horizons, complexity) </li></ul><ul><li>2 . Organization -- Islands of knowledge (institution-limited, sector-based) and reactive. Universities and NGOs need to be more involved. </li></ul><ul><li>3 . Human Resources -- Scientists and planners to work more closely, strengthen skills, facilities and enabling technologies. </li></ul><ul><li>4 . Institutional Support -- Champions at senior levels, coordinated collaboration with international scientific and development agencies. </li></ul><ul><li>6. Foreign Technical Cooperation -- To be expanded significantly, especially capacity building (climate scientists, planners, negotiators) </li></ul><ul><li>7. Science Communication -- Improved skills in interpretation, results presentation (policy makers, opinion-leaders, business, media, public) </li></ul>
  10. 10. Accessing Climate Science Knowledge Challenges and Opportunities in Vietnam <ul><li>Costs -- foreign journals expensive. Sponsored access -- AGORA, HINARI,OARE important (physical, social sciences under-represented), availability not widely known. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Grey” Literature -- most climate research. Limited quantities and circulation, not publicly advertised. Usually not internationally peer reviewed, or indexed. </li></ul><ul><li>Theses and Dissertations -- difficult to locate or access, combination of search tools do not identify many, and time-consuming to get full texts </li></ul><ul><li>“ Climate Data Rescue&quot; -- identify and digitize historical baseline data, non-traditional data series, images (photographs and remote sensing) </li></ul><ul><li>Expand Local Initiatives -- National Center for Scientific & Technological Information ( NACESTI), Open Access Journal initiatives ( Vietnam Journals Online) </li></ul><ul><li>Data Exchange and Sharing -- ASEAN can save significant costs by cooperation (Vietnam has ~ 40% of fish and 70% of coral species in common with ASEAN). </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative Approaches -- e.g. standardized network of citizens and students as data collectors (&quot;Citizen Scientists&quot;) -- increases technical awareness at grass-roots </li></ul>
  11. 11. The Media as Partners <ul><li>Situation in Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>● Neilsen surveys (2006-2007 increase) 4% to 9% persons identify global warming as major concern </li></ul><ul><li>● Hanoi residents survey (2007) – 100 % identify media as main climate change information source </li></ul><ul><li>Global Challenges </li></ul><ul><li>● Accuracy, Adequate Content, Ethics. Reporting opposite extremes of denial or scare tactics, “Balance Bias” ignoring scientific conclusions, and attempted political and commercial influence </li></ul><ul><li>● Few journalists with science education, specialized climate training, opportunity to be dedicated </li></ul><ul><li>Newspaper Surveys in Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>2005 (Vietnam News) -- Less than 5 % of number of articles on global warming </li></ul><ul><li>2006-2007 (172 environment articles submitted by Journalists) -- 0 % on Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>2008 Local reporters 51% of articles, decrease of scientific explanations: 76 % (2006) to 3 % (2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Building Partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>1 . Institutional and professional relationships --- scientists with journalists, media managers </li></ul><ul><li>2 . Scientists to increase internet presence to counteract inaccurate information </li></ul><ul><li>3. Facilitate access for journalists to accurate information </li></ul>
  12. 12. Information Issues in the Climate Change Campaign <ul><li>● Combining “Hard” and “Soft” approaches </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment and technical skills, rigorous science, “new” databases, but also new partnerships and networking, customizing content and style for users and situations </li></ul><ul><li>● Monitor & Use -- Communication Tools and Platforms </li></ul><ul><li>Rapidly evolving online personal and social networking tools, audio-video conferencing, mobile and spatial technology, and text messaging. </li></ul><ul><li>● Constant Content Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Inaccuracies, mis-interpretation, limited comprehension can make powerful agents of communication agents of confusion </li></ul>
  13. 13. “ Climate Change” Information Professionals <ul><li>Continuous Learning and professional skills development -- new concepts and terminologies to be mastered </li></ul><ul><li>Train and Educate Users in effective use of modern information tools and services </li></ul><ul><li>Expand and Strengthen Networks to facilitate transfer of (national and international) science and legacy information </li></ul><ul><li>Customize Information Delivery to target users (“Deluge and Drought”) </li></ul><ul><li>Cost-effective Services -- information challenges are huge </li></ul><ul><li>Personal Leadership -- carbon sensitive methods of work and management, and promote climate-proofing of work-spaces </li></ul>
  14. 14. Thank You 20 + Years IPCC 15 + Years UNFCCC 10 + Years Kyoto Protocol We do not have much time

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