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Find out which are the
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
sales volume
Sales V...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

Nation-Leading Rent & Job Growth
Make Seattle the Darling Market
...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

Year-to-Date Performance
As of Q3 2013, market fundamentals in Pu...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

Investment Metrics

Year-to-Date Performance
>  ear-to-date sales...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

Job Growth and Employment
Seattle Continues to Lead the Nation
Th...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

Rent Growth in the Region’s Eleven Major Submarkets
SEATTLE

WEST...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

Employment Growth by Sector in the Region’s Major Submarkets
In a...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

KIRKLAND

ISSAQUAH
Professional/STEM

FIRE

Retail

Construction ...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

EVERETT

RENTON
Professional/STEM

FIRE

Retail

Construction and...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
SEATTLE

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WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US?

Seattle
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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West Bellevue

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West Bellevue...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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East Bellevue...
2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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Issaquah
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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Kirkland
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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Bothell
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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Lynnwood
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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Everett
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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Renton
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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Kent
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report
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2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report

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2013 Puget Sound Rent & Job Growth Study

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A detailed study of 10 year rent growth and job growth trends in the Seattle and Puget Sound region. A must read study for any apartment owner, investor or developer. The report covers 11 of the region's major submarkets.

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Transcript of "2013 Puget Sound Rent & Job Growth Study"

  1. 1. Find out which are the strongest submarkets! 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report sales volume Sales Volume $2,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $500,000,000 $- King 2013 Pierce Snohomish Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth study What every apartment investor needs to know about regional rent and job growth Colliers International Seattle 1
  2. 2. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report Nation-Leading Rent & Job Growth Make Seattle the Darling Market for Multifamily Investors As the Puget Sound Region recovers from the Great Recession, 2013 has proved a banner year for multifamily investment. As of the second quarter of 2013, rents rose a nation-leading 6% year-over-year compared to a relatively anemic national average of 2.6%. Stellar rent growth figures are easily attributable to historically low vacancy rates, measuring 3.32% in Seattle by mid-year—a 15-year low, theoretically a result of pent-up demand. Arguably, however, a stronger driver is regional job growth. In 2013, the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MSA continues to post solid job growth. After having added over 46,500 jobs in 2012, the region is poised to add nearly 50,000 jobs in 2013 (as of Q3 2013 year-over-year job growth figures measured 49,900). With such a large number of jobs added to the market, we have seen strong resilience to supply added to the market (7,200 units added in the last 12 months and over 14,700 units added to the market since 2011) and sustained rent growth. A common theory explaining continued rent growth is more demand for rental housing. Additionally, higher wage jobs are EVERETT increasing price elasticity. From all reports one may assume that owners of all product types in all markets are equal benefactors of this rent growth phenomenon. However, we know such a general assertion never proves true. Accordingly, we sought answers to which markets performed best and to what job growth factors we could attribute such success. The enclosed study analyzes rent growth trends and job growth statistics in 11 of the region’s major submarkets during the last 12 years. We provide summary market rent growth analysis as well as a more granular look at rent growth performance based on building size and age. Additionally, we summarize macro employment trends and then take a closer look at market-level job growth. The analysis we provide factors job growth in absolute numbers, as well as by industry sector, both of which are helpful in gaining insight into market behavior. The following analysis is a starting point to assist multifamily investors in developing investment strategies in the Puget Sound region. Contact us to further refine your investment strategies. LYNNWOOD BOTHELL SEATTLE 520 90 KIRKLAND WEST BELLEVUE EAST BELLEVUE ISSAQUAH RENTON KENT FEDERAL WAY Colliers International Seattle 2
  3. 3. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report Year-to-Date Performance As of Q3 2013, market fundamentals in Puget Sound remain robust and sales activity reflects a strong desire for placing capital in Puget Sound. A caveat to this statement is the strong focus on core-located, institutional grade multifamily assets, and as a result just over 59 transactions year-to-date. In competition for select assets, investors have both driven up pricing and maintained downward pressure on capitalization rates, somewhat regardless of interest rate increases experienced in July. The result is high priced sales with even more impressive price-per-unit metrics, yet a smaller impact on total number of transactions. We anticipate investor activity to even in the coming year as rent growth propagates across more markets and investors chase yield beyond the core—a phenomenon we have already seen demonstrated in the last quarter. Number of sales Number of Sales 200 Sales sales volume Volume $2,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 150 $1,500,000,000 100 $1,000,000,000 50 $500,000,000 $- 0 King Pierce Snohomish King Pierce Snohomish +50 units, Tri-County Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 3
  4. 4. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report Investment Metrics Year-to-Date Performance > ear-to-date sales are $1.47B, on Y track to trail 2012 sales volume by 20% Tri-county unit prices are 14.4% 11 10 Key Indicators RENTAL RATES Regional rental rates increased 6.6% so far this year, 5% when excluding new developments 2011 and a whopping 53.5% higher than 2010 Core Seattle price per square foot averaged $336/SF, nearly 300% higher than 2009 Capitalization rates are 5.2% in King County (-.01% y-o-y), 5.8% in Snohomish County (-0.3% y-o-y) and 7.1% in Pierce County (+0.2% y-o-y) Core Seattle capitalization rates have lifted to 4.6% from 4.4% in 9 Year-over-year rental rates increased in King County by 7.5%, Snohomish County by 5.7% and Pierce County by 3.1% 8 higher than 2012, 39.1% higher than 2012 12 The average apartment unit in downtown Seattle is $1,741, a 5.5% increase over last year 7 6 5 VACANCY RATES Tri-county vacancy rates remain at historical lows, 3.8%, 4.2% and 4.3% in King, Snohomish and Pierce County, respectively 4 ing county vacancy rate rose by 0.5% in the last 6 months, yet is 3.0% lower K than a market peak vacancy of 6.8% in March 2009 3 Seattle’s CBD still has one of the lowest vacancy rates in the region at 3.1% 2 DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE Over 42,000 units are in the tri-county development pipeline for 2013-2017 1 Source: Dupre + Scott 9% of all new development is planned for King County 8 urrently 22,000 units are under construction C ,200 units were delivered in the last 12 months; 7,500 are forecasted for 7 2013—the highest level of deliveries since 1991 Colliers International Seattle 4
  5. 5. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report Job Growth and Employment Seattle Continues to Lead the Nation The Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MSA continues its trend with historically high job growth. As of Q3 2013, this MSA added 49,900 jobs year-over-year, demonstrating even greater job growth than 2012. Lead by job growth in the technology, manufacturing and construction sectors, the story of job growth in Seattle is the envy of the nation. Seattle has added manufacturing jobs at a rate of 4-times that of the rest of the nation. Unemployment 10.00% Notes: 9.00% 8.00% 7.0% 7.00% 6.4% 5.6% 6.00% year-over-year since Q3 2012 onway Pederson C 5.00% predicts nearly 4.00% 40,000 new jobs US 3.00% added year-over-year Washington Seattle/Bellevue/Everett MSA between 2014-2017 2.00% Percentage Change in Number of Jobs Since July 2011 Added 49,900 jobs 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Construction Retail trade Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Seattle 9.7% 4.2% 8.5% 3.3% 8.5% 5.9% 7.7% 2.0% Unemployment Unemployment numbers in the Seattle region remain a standout in the nation. Although unemployment ticked up slightly from an anomalously low rate this summer, an unemployment rate of 5.6% signals a strong economy. As compared to the nation, employment has risen 3.1% year-over-year, nearly doubling the national average of 1.7%. One of the strongest measures of local employment strength is the return of all 121,900 jobs lost during the Great Recession— a metric few markets can boast. U.S. Source: Labor Department Colliers International Seattle 5
  6. 6. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report Rent Growth in the Region’s Eleven Major Submarkets SEATTLE WEST BELLEVUE 27.8% 41.8% cumulative rent growth trend ISSAQUAH EAST BELLEVUE KIRKLAND 26.4% BOTHELL 28.0% cumulative rent growth trend FEDERAL WAY cumulative rent growth trend cumulative rent growth trend RENTON 26.1% cumulative rent growth trend 26.1% 31.1% cumulative rent growth trend EVERETT KENT cumulative rent growth trend 31.6% cumulative rent growth trend LYNNWOOD 27.9% cumulative rent growth trend 18.6% cumulative rent growth trend 29.2% cumulative rent growth trend This summary data indicates cumulative rent growth in each of the region’s eleven major submarkets measured over a 12 year period. Data is based on apartments 50 units and greater, built after 1983. Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 6
  7. 7. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report Employment Growth by Sector in the Region’s Major Submarkets In an effort to understand market behavior vis-à-vis job growth by industry (and by proxy, income) we provide the following graphs setting forth job growth in our eleven subject submarkets, highlighting four industry employment sectors: Professional/STEM (scientific, technical, engineering and mathematics), retail, construction and manufacturing and FIRE (financial services, insurance and real estate). Although the data sets used do not capture the entire market, they are a representative sample of relative employment trends in each submarket and illustrate relative trends by industry. Note: ll submarket employment statistics drawn from seasonally adjusted Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), the Boeing Company, and the Office A of Washington Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI), and were compiled by the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC). Figures represent number of jobs, not working persons, and are broken down by major sector per NAICS codes. Data trends marked with a dotted line represents normalizing of data that was unreported because there were either less than three reporting firms in a sector, or where a single employer represents more than 80 percent of jobs in an employment code. SEATTLE BELLEVUE Professional/STEM FIRE Retail Construction and Manufacturing Professional/STEM 100,000 Retail Construction and Manufacturing 40,000 80,000 35,000 * 70,000 60,000 Total Number of Jobs Total Job Numbers FIRE 45,000 90,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 Year rofessional/STEM jobs lead the market P On a gross basis, added more technology jobs than any other region measured Surprisingly, FIRE jobs sill have not recovered from the Great Recession Retail has recovered well, but accounts for lower wage employment * This large spike in construction and manufacturing jobs is an accurate depiction of Seattle’s market during this period. The city built Seahawk stadium, added $190M worth of construction expansion on their Convention Center, built a 520,000 square foot federal courthouse, and constructed the 450-room Elliott Hotel along with additional structures during Seattle’s 36 month construction boom that started in 2000. Year Professional/STEM jobs have had strong growth and were very resilient to the Great Recession All other sectors have trended down over the last decade Source: Puget Sound Regional Council Colliers International Seattle 7
  8. 8. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report KIRKLAND ISSAQUAH Professional/STEM FIRE Retail Construction and Manufacturing Professional/STEM FIRE Retail Construction and Manufacturing 7,000 3,000 ‡ 2,500 2,000 † * 1,500 1,000 Total Number of Jobs 8,000 3,500 Total Number of Jobs 4,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 500 0 0 Year Year This market is very cyclical and remains highly exposed to single-family homebuilding Very little growth in FIRE jobs rofessional/STEM and Retail job growth are the bright spots with the highest percentage P gains * Professional/STEM employment growth leads the market, a healthy Google presence reflected Healthy jobs recovery post-Great Recession in all sectors FIRE jobs have a consistent 10-year positive trend, marking an increase by 61.5% D ata normalized due to NAICS codes 48 49 not recording in the year 2000. ‡ n 2009-2010 Costco ramped up its online presence and brought hundreds of tech jobs to the Issaquah region. Also, while Microsoft I abandoned its plans for an Issaquah campus in late 2006, they still leased space and brought jobs to the city in 2009 and 2010. † Data estimated due to no available data for NAICS code #51 which was the largest city’s largest Professional/STEM job figure in preceding years. LYNNWOOD BOTHELL Professional/STEM FIRE Retail Professional/STEM Construction and Manufacturing FIRE Retail Construction and Manufacturing 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 Total Number of Jobs Total Number of Jobs 9,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 * 3,000 2,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 * 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 Year Year Retail is king in Lynnwood with one of the largest malls in the region Strong upward Professional/STEM job growth trend Steady decline in FIRE jobs Professional/STEM jobs post fantastic 10-year trend Added more construction jobs than any other market measured Submarket with the largest overall job growth on a percentage basis * * N AICS code #23 did not record in 2001 and 2002, and when it did reappear in 2003 the numbers showed a decline in Construction and Manufacting employment. The data was normalized in this section to show a gradual decline and not the steep drop that eliminating NAICS #23 for two straight years would indicate as this had typically been a strong sector for Lynnwood. Data normalized due to incomplete recording of NAICS code #32 in the year 2000. Source: Puget Sound Regional Council Colliers International Seattle 8
  9. 9. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report EVERETT RENTON Professional/STEM FIRE Retail Construction and Manufacturing Professional/STEM 40000 35000 * 30000 Retail Construction and Manufacturing 25000 20000 15000 10000 25,000 Total Number of Jobs Total Number of Jobs FIRE 30,000 45000 5000 20,000 * 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 Year Year Aerospace is far-and-away the market driver Other employment sectors have little influence on job growth * n a trend basis, Professional/STEM replaced construction and manufacturing jobs O n a percentage basis, highest technical job growth of all markets measured, 116.5% O etail jobs on the decline for nearly a decade R erospace remains a strong, but decreasingly influential market driver A Data normalized due to incomplete recording of NAICS code #33 in 2012. * FEDERAL WAY KENT Professional/STEM FIRE Retail Construction and Manufacturing Professional/STEM 25,000 FIRE Retail Construction and Manufacturing 7,000 6,000 Total Number of Jobs 30,000 Total Number of Jobs Data estimation due to NAICS code #23 not being recorded in 2012. NAICS #23 made comprised over 14,000 jobs in 2011. 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 * 4,000 ‡ 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 Year onstruction and manufacturing, predominantly aerospace related, continue to drive this market C All other jobs sections remain relatively flat Year ob sector cyclicality predominates in this market J etail has suffered over a 10-year trend with the greatest job losses R * Data estimated due to incomplete recording of NAICS code #55 from 2000 – 2008. ‡ 2009 saw significant losses for the Professional/STEM sector as Weyerhaeuser cut 1,000 jobs at their corporate headquarters and World Vision laid off 1,200 employees across its workforce. Source: Puget Sound Regional Council Colliers International Seattle 9
  10. 10. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report SEATTLE 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? Seattle Rent Growth Seattle experiences strong performance in up-cycles yet is not immune to market downturns. Interestingly, apartment communities larger than 150 units demonstrated more resilience when the market turns. Overall, in the measured period, investments in properties built before 2000 exhibited the greatest amount of rent growth, likely due to value-add strategies by investors. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $1,450 $1,500 PROFessional/STEM $1,350 $1,400 $1,250 $1,300 7.0% $1,150 $1,200 $1,050 $1,100 $950 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring 0'5 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 $750 Fall '01 $850 $900 Spring '02 $1,000 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 24% 18% 33% 2.34% 28% 16% 25.6% 10-year cumulative 6.00% FIRE 35% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 $1,800 $1,700 $2,300 $1,600 RETAIL $2,500 $2,100 $1,500 -1.2% $1,900 $1,400 $1,700 $1,300 $1,500 $1,200 $1,300 Mfg Construction Fall '13 Spring '13 Fall '12 Spring '12 Fall '11 Spring '11 Fall '10 Spring '10 Fall '09 Spring '09 Fall '08 Spring '08 Fall '07 Spring '07 Fall '06 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Spring '11 Fall '10 Spring '10 Fall '09 Spring '09 Fall '08 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Spring '02 $1,100 $1,000 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 1.35% 16% 14% 49% 1.55% 19% 14% -7.5% 19% Source: Puget Sound Regional Council $1,100 Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 10
  11. 11. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? West Bellevue 12- West Bellevue posted the highest performance in the measured years, with cumulative rent growth of 41.8%. Newer generation buildings, those built after 2000, of institutional size (+150u) show the strongest rent growth performance: 83% growth measured by a 10-year cumulative growth. This measurement is skewed by the addition of new buildings to a relatively older stock, yet the strength of this performance tops all submarkets measured. West Bellevue Rent Growth 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $1,700 $1,450 PROFessional/STEM $1,600 $1,400 $1,350 $1,500 $1,300 9.7% $1,400 $1,250 $1,200 $1,300 $1,150 $1,200 $1,100 $1,050 $1,100 $1,000 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Spring '02 $1,000 $950 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 14% 14% 18% 2.28% 27% 20% -10.0% 10-year cumulative 1.19% FIRE 33% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 $2,100 RETAIL $2,050 $1,900 -14.6% $1,850 $1,700 $1,650 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 2.97% 36% 39% 85% 4.43% 53% 25% -23.6% 83% Source: Puget Sound Regional Council Fall '13 Spring '13 Fall '12 Spring '12 Fall '11 Spring '11 Fall '10 Spring '10 Fall '09 Fall '08 Spring '09 Spring '08 Fall '07 Spring '07 Fall '06 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Mfg Construction Spring '02 Fall '13 Spring '13 Fall '12 Spring '12 Fall '11 Spring '11 Fall '10 Spring '10 Fall '09 Spring '09 Fall '08 Spring '08 Fall '07 Spring '07 Fall '06 Spring '06 Fall '05 Spring '05 Fall '04 $850 Fall '03 $900 Spring '04 $1,050 Fall '02 $1,100 Spring '03 $1,250 Fall '01 $1,450 $1,300 Spring '02 $1,500 Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 11
  12. 12. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report east Bellevue 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? East Bellevue Rent Growth Rent growth in East Bellevue fits within the mean of all submarkets measured. Buildings between 50-150 units suffered to a greater degree during downturns, yet larger, institutional buildings have performed well during up-markets with a 10-year cumulative rent growth of 48%. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $1,450 $1,500 $1,400 PROFessional/STEM $1,350 $1,300 $1,250 $1,200 9.7% $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring 0'5 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 $750 Fall '02 $800 Spring '03 $850 Fall '01 $950 $900 Spring '02 $1,000 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 2% 3% 24% 2.86% 34% 25% -10.0% 10-year cumulative 0.14% FIRE 48% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 RETAIL -14.6% NO DATA Mfg Construction 23.6% Source: Puget Sound Regional Council NO DATA Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 12
  13. 13. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report issaquah 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? Issaquah Rent Growth Issaquah’s cumulative rent growth is near the bottom of the pack at 26.4%, yet since 2010 buildings of all sizes and ages continue to post strong rent growth numbers. No particular building size or age seems to outperform the market in Issaquah as all building types appear to perform relatively equally during market cycles. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 PROFessional/STEM Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 -59.9% Spring '02 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 $900 Spring '08 $800 Fall '06 $1,000 Spring '07 $900 Fall '05 $1,100 Spring '06 $1,000 Fall '04 $1,200 Spring '05 $1,100 Fall '03 $1,300 Spring '04 $1,200 Fall '02 $1,400 Spring '03 $1,300 Fall '01 $1,500 Spring '02 $1,400 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 22% 25% 33% 2.00% 24% 18% 44.4% 10-year cumulative 1.85% FIRE 32% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 RETAIL $1,700 $1,600 $1,550 34.3% $1,600 $1,500 $1,450 $1,500 $1,400 $1,350 $1,400 $1,300 $1,300 $1,250 $1,200 $1,200 Mfg Construction Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall 0'7 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Fall '13 Spring '13 Fall '12 Spring '12 Fall '11 Spring '11 Fall '10 Spring '10 Fall '09 Spring '09 Fall '08 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Spring '05 Fall '04 Spring '04 Fall '03 Spring '03 Fall '01 Fall '02 $1,100 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 1.94% 23% 17% 17% 1.44% 17% 14% 108.4% 34% Source: Puget Sound Regional Council $1,150 $1,100 Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 13
  14. 14. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report kirkland 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? Kirkland Rent Growth Kirkland displayed the second highest cumulative rent growth during the sample period, posting cumulative rent growth of 31.6%. As a relatively new market for new development, we don’t have a complete data set to analyze; however, the data shows very strong performance of buildings from 50 – 150 units, which represent the majority of buildings in this tight submarket. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $2,050 $1,600 $1,850 PROFessional/STEM $1,500 $1,650 26.2% $1,400 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Fall '04 $1,000 Spring '05 $850 Fall '03 $1,100 Spring '04 $1,050 Fall '02 $1,200 Spring '03 $1,250 Fall '01 $1,300 Spring '02 $1,450 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 73% 16% 66% 0.54% 6% 28% 61.5% 10-year cumulative 6.05% FIRE 16% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 RETAIL $2,000 $1,900 -19.0% $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 NO DATA Fall 2013 Spring 2013 Fall 2012 Spring 2012 Fall 2011 Spring 2011 Fall 2010 Spring 2010 Fall 2009 Spring 2009 Fall 2008 Spring 2008 $1,300 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 0.75% 4% 20% Mfg Construction -35.0% No Data Source: Puget Sound Regional Council $1,500 $1,400 * calculated from Spring 2008 Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 14
  15. 15. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report bothell 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? Bothell Rent Growth Bothell sits as the 3rd highest rent growth market in the region. Cumulative rent growth for all building ages and sizes outperforms the market and there is no clear strongest performing category. Without having data for more modern buildings of institutional size, no comparison can be drawn to this subset. Overall, Bothell is a high performing submarket. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $1,050 $1,400 $1,000 $1,300 $950 PROFessional/STEM $1,200 $900 53.9% $1,100 $850 $1,000 $800 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 $800 Spring '03 $700 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 26% 10% 38% 2.34% 28% 23% -45.0% 10-year cumulative 2.15% FIRE 44% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 RETAIL $1,450 $1,400 -33.9% $1,350 $1,300 $1,250 NO DATA $1,200 Spring '13 Fall '12 Spring '12 Fall '11 Spring '11 Fall '10 Spring '10 Fall '09 Spring '09 $1,150 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 2.10% 8% 14% Mfg Construction 242.8% No Data Source: Puget Sound Regional Council Fall '01 $900 Spring '02 $750 * calculated from Spring 2009 Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 15
  16. 16. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report lynnwood Lynnwood Rent Growth 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? The performance of the Lynnwood market places it within the region’s average for rent growth. Older buildings have performed well during market up-cycles, yet we have incomplete data to evaluate the performance of the newer stock of buildings. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $1,050 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 PROFessional/STEM $1,000 $950 $950 $900 $850 80.0% $900 $850 $800 $800 $750 $750 $700 $700 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 $650 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 30% 17% 23% 2.33% 28% 19% -80.0% 10-year cumulative 2.51% FIRE 33% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 RETAIL $1,370 14.3% $1,350 $1,330 $1,310 $1,270 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3.30% 7% 3-year cumulative Fall '13 Spring '13 Fall '12 Spring '12 $1,250 10-year cumulative Mfg Construction -79.9% No Data No Data Source: Puget Sound Regional Council NO DATA $1,290 * calculated from Spring 2012 Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 16
  17. 17. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report everett 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? Everett Rent Growth Everett’s cumulative rent growth is 2nd from last in the overall market, tied with Kent. Historically the market has shown volatility throughout market cycles, yet rent growth in up-cycles is comparable to market averages. With incomplete data for newer buildings of institutional size, we are unable to draw comparisons for all building sizes. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $900 $1,050 $850 PROFessional/STEM $1,000 $950 $800 -10.3% $900 $750 $850 $700 $800 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 $700 Fall '01 $750 $600 Spring '02 $650 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 30% 10% 38% 2.33% 28% 15% 16.3% 10-year cumulative 2.51% FIRE 31% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 $1,075 RETAIL $1,260 $1,240 $1,025 0.1% $1,220 $975 $1,200 $925 $1,180 $1,160 $875 $1,140 $1,120 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 3.30% 7% 11% 26% Source: Dupre + Scott Mfg Construction Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 1.03% 12% 3-year cumulative Fall '13 Spring '13 $1,100 Spring '12 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Spring '11 Fall '10 Spring '10 Fall '09 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Spring '04 Fall '03 Fall '02 Fall '01 Spring '02 $775 10-year cumulative -85.6% No Data No Data Source: Puget Sound Regional Council $825 * calculated from Spring 2012 Colliers International Seattle 17
  18. 18. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report renton 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? Renton Rent Growth In the analysis of cumulative rent growth, Renton sits near the dead-center of the pack, posting the 6th highest growth rate. Similar to Everett, the market shows significant volatility throughout market cycles. Consistent rent growth of newer buildings is hard to predict due to volatility and older buildings display steadier rent growth trends during up-cycles. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $1,050 $1,150 $1,100 $1,000 PROFessional/STEM $1,050 $950 $1,000 116.5% $950 $900 $900 $850 $850 $800 $800 $750 $750 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 $700 Spring '02 $700 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 18% 12% 25% 1.93% 23% 14% -2.8% 10-year cumulative 1.52% FIRE 27% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 RETAIL $1,550 $1,300 $1,500 $1,250 -32.6% $1,450 $1,200 $1,400 $1,350 $1,150 $1,300 $1,100 $1,250 $1,200 $1,150 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Fall 2013 Fall 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2011 Spring 2012 Fall 2010 Spring 2011 Spring 2010 Fall 2009 Fall 2008 Spring 2009 Spring 2008 Fall 2007 Spring 2007 Fall 2006 Spring 2006 Fall 2005 Spring 2005 Fall 2004 Spring 2004 Fall 2003 Spring 2003 Fall 2002 Spring 2002 Mfg Construction $1,100 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 1.18% 14% 1% 18% 0.44% 5% 9% -85.1% 18% Source: Puget Sound Regional Council $1,050 $1,000 * calculated from Spring 2002 Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 18
  19. 19. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report Kent 12- WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? Kent Rent Growth Interestingly, Kent’s cumulative rent growth sits 2nd from last, tied with Everett. Kent has experienced relatively steady rent growth over the measured period, yet the amount of actual dollars added to rent is quite small. Very little in Kent rents for over $1,000/unit, so despite any rent growth trends, actual rent appreciation remains minimal. 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $1,100 $1,000 $1,050 PROFessional/STEM $950 $1,000 -23.8% $900 $950 $900 $850 $850 $800 $800 $750 $750 $700 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 Spring '02 $700 $650 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 22% 8% 27% 2.05% 25% 13% 36.7% 10-year cumulative 1.84% FIRE 32% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 $1,100 RETAIL $1,250 1.3% $1,200 $1,050 $1,150 $1,000 $1,100 $1,050 $950 $1,000 $900 $950 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 1.18% 14% 1% 18% * calculated from Spring 2002 Fall '13 Spring '13 Fall '12 Spring '12 Fall '11 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Spring '09 Fall '08 Spring '08 Fall '07 Fall '06 Spring '07 Spring '06 Fall '05 Spring '05 Fall '04 Spring '04 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Spring '12 Fall '11 Spring '11 Spring '10 Fall '09 Spring '09 Spring '08 Fall '07 Spring '07 Fall '06 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Spring '03 Fall '02 Spring '02 $850 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative 2.38% 21% 18% 1.8% No Data Source: Puget Sound Regional Council Mfg Construction $900 * calculated from Spring 2004 Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 19
  20. 20. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report WHAT DO THE STATISTICS TELL US? federal way 12- Federal Way’s cumulative rent growth can best be described as anemic. It sits dead last in the market – by a strong margin—and its cumulative rent growth is less than half that of the top performing market. With little data on new buildings in the market, we cannot draw any comparisons to older buildings, yet it is safe to say that the overall performance of the market is very low compared to the region. Federal Way Rent Growth 50-150 Units, Built 1983-1999 YEAR 150+ Units, Built 1983-1999 $1,000 PROFessional/STEM $950 $950 $900 $900 $850 12.3% $850 $800 $750 $800 $700 $750 Fall 2013 Fall 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2011 Spring 2012 Fall 2010 Spring 2011 Fall 2009 Spring 2010 Fall 2008 Spring 2009 Fall 2007 Spring 2008 Fall 2006 Spring 2007 Fall 2005 Spring 2006 Fall 2004 Spring 2005 Fall 2003 Spring 2004 Fall 2002 Spring 2003 $700 Fall 2001 Fall '13 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '08 Spring 2'9 Fall '07 Spring '08 Fall '06 Spring '07 Fall '05 Spring '06 Fall '04 Spring '05 Fall '03 Spring '04 Fall '02 Spring '03 Fall '01 Spring '02 $600 Spring 2002 $650 Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 10-year cumulative Year-overyear: Cumulative rent growth: 3-year cumulative 19% 8% 16% 1.54% 18% 7% 21.4% 10-year cumulative 1.58% FIRE 21% 50-150 Units, Built 2000-2013 150+ Units, Built 2000-2013 RETAIL -15.9% NO DATA Mfg Construction 28.1% Source: Puget Sound Regional Council NO DATA Source: Dupre + Scott Colliers International Seattle 20
  21. 21. 2013 Puget sound Multifamily rent and Job growth report About the Author Dylan Simon Dylan P. Simon direct 206 624 7413 mobile 206 414 8575 dylan.simon@colliers.com Dylan Simon specializes in the marketing and sales of urban apartment complexes and developable land. Having lived in diverse urban centers, Dylan offers clients unique insight into urban development and high growth opportunities. Additionally, Dylan’s study of regional submarkets and trends positions him to provide clients the best possible guidance on apartment investment and disposition strategies throughout the Puget Sound region. Dave Schumacher Senior Vice President direct 206 382 8555 mobile 425 985 8528 dave.schumacher@colliers. com Expertise in urban apartment sales development Savvy marketer with deep experience in financial analysis and deal negotiation 10 years legal experience, J.D. UCLA School of Law David Mortensen Senior Associate direct 206 382 8554 mobile 206 604 6118 david.mortensen@colliers.com Background in construction management, B.S. Mechanical Engineering Active member of ULI, NAIOP Downtown Seattle Association Colliers International 601 Union Street, Suite 5300 Seattle, Washington 98101 206 223 0866 www.colliers.com Colliers Multi-family Team As experts in the marketing and sale of apartment complexes in Seattle and the Puget Sound region, we take a sharp focus on understanding the dynamics of our market—especially the trends that impact our clients the most. Our study of rent and job growth provides an essential background in providing our clients expert guidance to help them shape their investment decisions. Our team represents over 50 years of combined market experience in the Puget Sound region, brokering apartment transactions totaling over $2 billion dollars in value. With expertise in market analysis, marketing, sales and negotiation we provide a single source solution to your apartment investment needs in Puget Sound. Please contact us directly to discuss your investment objectives and we look forward to working with you. Dave Schumacher David W. Mortensen Kate Lee » 35 years of multifamily sales experience » 11 years experience in multifamily sales » Over $2 billion in multifamily transactions » Expert in financial and market analysis » Provides project management support for all of the team’s marketing and sales efforts » Represents buyers/sellers in marketrate apartments, student housing multifamily land and condominium conversions. » Started in multifamily industry with Holland Residential and was a part of the Investment Management Team working on acquisitions and dispositions » CoStar Power Broker in 2011 » Responsible for providing and tracking due diligence items Senior Vice President » Widely recognized as one of Seattle’s top apartment brokers » Strong client relationships with the leading pension fund advisors, REITs, and large syndicators as well as high net worth individuals and families » Rookie of the Year in his first year » Remained the top apartment broker in the Seattle office for most of his 14 year tenure » 1990 Top CB investment broker in the country Senior Associate » Top 5 Broker in the Colliers Northwest region » Technical expertise in apartment value analysis and tireless marketing efforts have proven invaluable to his clients Project Marketing Manager » This includes obtaining materials for the brokers, title companies, lenders, and equity partners » Creates investment summaries on potential deals and sales collateral This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and / or its licensor(s). © 2013. All rights reserved. Colliers International Seattle 21
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