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Dave Schumacher
Sr. Vice President
206 382 8555
dave.schumacher@colliers.com




David W. Mortensen
Sr. Associate
206 382 8554	
david.mortensen@colliers.com




Dylan P. Simon
Associate
206 624 7413
dylan.simon@colliers.com




FIRST QUARTER 2012


Research &
Knowledge Report
Seattle Multifamily

Colliers International
601 Union St., Ste 5300 | Seattle, WA 98101		   www.colliers.com
Q1 2012 | MultiFamily




Colliers International | Seattle

research & forecast Report



                                  Demand Driving Construction, Rates Driving Sales
                                  The biggest building boom in 25 years is taking place in Seattle. In the past, most new construction
                                  happened in the suburbs. In this cycle, however, the vast majority of the new product is in Seattle
                                  proper – Downtown, First Hill/Capitol Hill, Fremont/Ballard, and the University District. At the same
                                  time, Puget Sound area employment is up 2.5% year-over-year, which is stronger than previously
                                  thought, and the area is expected to add jobs at a rate of 2% or better every year through 2016.
                                  Inside, we examine the potential new product and project how much of it will actually be built. We
                                  examine employment growth and demand forecasts to determine if and when the market will be
                                  oversaturated by the new supply, or whether the strong demand will absorb the new product.
                                  We also look at the investment market – specifically sales volume and cap rates. Sales volume is
market indicators                 increasing and is likely to continue to increase throughout 2012 and 2013. Downward pressure on
                                  cap rates continues, but we expect it to flatten out this year. What market forces could reverse cap
                2012       2013
                                  rate compression? Finally, we take a brief look at each of the major market regions within the Seattle
                                  metro area – Seattle, Eastside, Southend and Snohomish County.
VACANCY

Cap Rates
                                  Key Indicators                                     Supply and Demand
construction                      •	 Tri-Countysales volume totaled $408             •	 Employment is projected to grow between
                                   million in Q1 2012 vs. $100 million Q1 2011         2.0% and 2.5% annually in the Puget Sound
rents                             •	 Rents                                             through 2016 (economicforecaster.com)
                                          in the Seattle MSA have risen 4.8%
                                   year-over-year according to Apartment             •	 Approximately 3,500 new units are expected to
                                   Insights                                            be delivered in 2012
                                  •	 Vacancy
                                           is down to 4.1% in King County            •	 New development should peak in 2013 with a
                                   and 4.6% in Snohomish County                        projected 6,300 new units
                                  •	 18%
                                       are offering concessions vs. the Q1
                                   2010 peak of 62% (duprescott.com)

                                    Puget Sound HOme Ownership rates

                                   67.0%                                                                  “There remains an aversion
                                   66.0%                                                                 to home ownership as
                                   65.0%                                                                 evidenced by still downward-
                                                                                                         trending home ownership
                                   64.0%
                                                                                                         rates. This phenomenon
                                   63.0%
                                                                                                         continues to stimulate
                                   62.0%
                                                                                                         demand by depressing
                                   61.0%                                                                 turnover and thereby limiting
                                   60.0%                                                                 fresh new supply.” Thomas
                                   59.0%                                                                 W. Toomey, president and
                                   58.0%                                                                 CEO of UDR (The Watch List,
                                                                                                         Feb 9, 2012)


www.colliers.com/seattle
research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily




Growing Supply, Growing Demand
                                                                             Projected Deliveries in King and Snohomish Counties
There are 28,000 total units that are either under construction or in
                                                                             10,000
planning stages in King and Snohomish Counties. To try to put that in some
                                                                              9,000
perspective, we handicap the various stages of development for likelihood
of completion. We assume that 100% of the properties currently under          8,000
construction will be completed. We handicap properties in the planning        7,000
stages at different levels based on projected year of delivery. We project    6,000
that 70% of properties in planning for 2013 delivery will be completed. We    5,000
project 60% completion for 2014 properties and 50% for 2015 and the           4,000
projects in planning without delivery dates as yet. The total projected                                   6,887
                                                                              3,000                                        5,731
delivery over the next 4 years using that handicapping scheme just over
                                                                              2,000       3,949
20,000 units. We believe actual deliveries are highly unlikely to exceed                                                                      2,976
that number and may well fall short.                                          1,000
                                                                                                                                                                    632
                                                                                 -
                                                                                       2012             2013            2014              2015               Future

                                                                                          Completed      Under Construction        Planning      Projected


                                                                                                        Yellow bars indicate our own projections of actual deliveries



Projecting Employment Growth
                                                                             Projected Job Growth in King and Snohomish Counties
After projected new development, employment is the primary factor
                                                                             45,000
that determines when and if Seattle gets overbuilt.
                                                                             40,000
Employment in the Seattle area grew faster than previously thought,          35,000
causing Conway and Pedersen (economicforecaster.com) to increase
                                                                             30,000
their 2012 employment forecasts up by 12,400 jobs in King and
Snohomish Counties. Unemployment is now down to 7.4% in King                 25,000
County (which peaked at 9.0% Q4 2009) and 8.2% in Snohomish                  20,000
County (which peaked at 10.6% Q4 2009). They project unemployment            15,000
to drop to 7.1%/7.9% in 2013 (King/Snohomish), 6.9%/7.7% in 2014
                                                                             10,000
and 6.6%/7.3% in 2015.                                                                                      6,643           6,635             6,182
                                                                                                                                                               4,315
                                                                              5,000           2,086
Employment is the primary driver of in-migration and apartment
                                                                                 -
demand, so improving employment bodes well for absorption of new                          2011           2012            2013            2014                2015
supply. Our demand projections come from a March 2012 O’Connor
                                                                                                      New Jobs      New Apartment Demand
Consulting Group report. Those projections do not take into account
Conway and Pedersen’s now increased employment forecast, so an
updated demand projection would likely be somewhat higher.                     Sources: Employment – economicforecaster.com, Demand – O’Connor Consulting Group
                                                                                                                                                    (Mar 2012)



                                                                                                                          Colliers International |                  p. 2
research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily

Projecting Demand and new Development
Deliveries are expected to peak in 2013 for this cycle and taper down to more typical levels. Still, this development cycle is not likely to end any time
soon. We have been predicting a housing shortage in the Seattle market since 2008. The market lost nearly 10,000 units from 2004-2007 which the
development pipeline has just replaced as of last year. Demand currently exceeds supply even though unemployment is still around 8%. The demand
projections from O’Connor Consulting Group show that new households and employment growth are expected to keep demand in front of supply for the
foreseeable future.


Projected Demand vs. Deliveries                                                Projected Vacancy
8,000                                                                          5.0%
7,000                                                                          4.5%

6,000                                                                          4.0%
                                                                               3.5%
5,000
                                                                               3.0%
4,000
                                                                               2.5%
3,000
                                                                               2.0%
2,000
                                                                               1.5%
1,000                                                                          1.0%
   -                                                                           0.5%
           2011          2012          2013           2014        2015
                                                                               0.0%
                    New Apartment Demand      New Deliveries                                  2011         2012                  2013                  2014                 2015



Sales Volume Rising
                                                                             Tri-County Sales Volume
Puget Sound sales volume returned to more typical levels in 2011, and
                                                                             $2,500,000,000
2012 looks to build on that momentum. Q1 2012 sales volume in the
tri-county area totaled $408 million vs. $100 million in Q1 2011. Deal
flow should continue to rise throughout 2012 and 2013.                       $2,000,000,000


                                                                             $1,500,000,000


                                                                             $1,000,000,000


                                                                              $500,000,000


                                                                                        $0



                                                                                                         King     Pierce        Snohomish



Cap Rates Compressing
                                                                             king county cap rates
Interest rates and the 10-year treasury have been major factors driving
                                                                                      9.0%
cap rate compression in this cycle. At this point, neither the 10-year                        8.1% 8.1% 8.0%
nor cap rates are likely to go any lower, particularly given the record               8.0%                     7.4%
low 1.79% 10-year treasury yield seen earlier this year. The Fed has                                                                                   6.8%
                                                                                      7.0%                            6.3%                                    6.2%
promised to keep interest rates “low” through 2014, but that may not                                                         5.6% 5.4%          5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                     5.9%
                                                                                      6.0%
stop the 10-year from creeping up as we witnessed in March.                                                                              4.8%
                                                                                                                                                                            5.2%
Downward pressure on cap rates will likely ease somewhat following                    5.0%
any upward movement in interest rates and the 10-year yield.                          4.0%

                                                                                      3.0%

                                                                                      2.0%

                                                                                      1.0%

                                                                                      0.0%




                                                                                                                                  Colliers International |                         p. 3
EVERETT

                                     Snohmish County Top Employers
                        > The Boeing Company                      > Zumiez
                        > Naval Station Everett                   > Aviation Technical Services                      SNOHOMISH
                        > Providence Regional Medical Center      > Rinker Materials NW
                        > Premera Blue Cross                      > Fluke Corp
                        > Tulalip Tribes                          > Intermec
                                                                                                  MILL CREEK
                        > Philips Medical Systems
                                                                                                                                                MONROE


                                                               LYNNWOOD
                                                                                                          Snohomish County
                                                         EDMONDS
               Greater Seattle Top Employers
 > University of Washington          > Starbucks Corp
 > Amazon.com                        > Perkins Coie
                                                                                            BOTHELL         WOODINVILLE
 > King County Government            > Expeditors International
 > Group Health Cooperative          > Real Networks Inc
 > Nordstrom Inc                     > Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
 > Swedish Medical Center            > Russell Investments                                                          Eastside

                                                                Greater Seattle                                     REDMOND

                                                                                                                                  Eastside Top Employers
                                                                                                                            > Microsoft              > Symetra Financial
                                                                                                                            > Nintendo               > Data I/O Corp
                                                              SEATTLE                                    BELLEVUE           > Costco Wholesale       > Concur Technologies
                                                                                                                            > Expedia Inc            > Clearwire Corp
                                                                                                                            > Esterline Technologies > Google




                                                                                                                                 ISSAQUAH


                                                                                                      RENTON
                                                                 BURIEN        TUKWILA


                                                                          SEATAC




                                                                                                         Southend
                  Average Rent and Vacancy - Seattle MSA Markets
$1,400                                                                                10%         KENT

$1,300                                                                                9%

                                                                                      8%
$1,200
          GIG HARBOR
                                                                                                                              Southend Top Employers
                                                                                      7%
$1,100
                                                                 FEDERAL WAY                                          > The Boeing Company      > Paccar Inc / Kenworth
                                                                                      6%          AUBURN
$1,000                                                                                                                > Port of Seattle         > Alaska Air Group
                                                                                      5%
 $900                                                                                                                 > Providence Health       > IKEA
                                                                                      4%                              > Valley Medical Center   > REI
 $800
                                                                                      3%                              > Weyerhaeuser            > Mikron Industries
 $700                                         TACOMA
                                                                                      2%
 $600                                                                                 1%

 $500                                                  Pierce County                  0%
          Greater Seattle         Eastside         Southend        Snohomish County

                            Average Rent/SF     Average Vacancy Rate
                                                                                        PUYALLUP
research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily




                                                                                                                           Vacancy               Cap Rates               Construction             Rents

                                                                                            2012
         Greater Seattle                                                                    2013




                      Greater Seattle Market Vacancy
                                                                                                                                        After the recession and the collapse of Washington Mutual, the
                   Gr Seattle Market Vacancy                                                                                            downtown Seattle office and retail sectors have rebounded
 8.00%                                                                                                                                  dramatically.
 7.00%                                                                                                                                  •	 Downtown employment growth is driving apartment development

 6.00%                                                                                                                                     which is why 75% of the region’s new projects are being built in
                                                                                                                                           Seattle. In fact, Seattle ranked fifth nationally for job growth
 5.00%
                                                                                                                                           between January 2011 and January 2012 (PSBJ 3/23/12).
 4.00%
                                                                                                                                        •	 Amazon has played a critical role in the downtown surge. Along
 3.00%
 3 00%
                                                                                                                                         with the new South Lake Union campus headquarters, it recently
 2.00%                                                                                                                                   announced plans to add a staggering 3 million square feet of office
 1.00%                                                                                                                                   in the Denny Triangle. Amazon has almost single-handedly driven
 0.00%                                                                                                                                   down the office vacancy rate in the northern edge of downtown by
                                                                                                                                         leasing up office space nearby. Amazon’s rapid expansion has also
           Q1 00

                      Q1 01

                              Q1 02

                                         Q1 03

                                                  Q1 04

                                                          Q1 05

                                                                  Q1 06

                                                                          Q1 07

                                                                                    Q1 08

                                                                                               Q1 09

                                                                                                           Q1 10

                                                                                                                     Q1 11

                                                                                                                              Q1 12




                                                                                                                                         been a catalyst for the restaurant and apartment surge in South
                                                                                                                                         Lake Union and the rush to build apartments elsewhere in the
                                                                                                                                         downtown core.
                                                                                                                                        •	 The
                                                                                                                                             downtown retail sector led by Nordstrom is thriving.
                                                                                                                                         Nordstrom is expanding into the Quest Plaza tower recently
              Greater Seattle Average Rent
                 Greater Seattle Average Rent                                                                                            purchased by Clarion. The company, which already occupied over
                                                                                                                                         one million SF in downtown Seattle, signed a 20-year lease for
 $1,250 
                                                                                                                                         300,000 SF. Meanwhile, Target purchased 103,000 SF of space
 $1,200                                                                                                                                  in 2010 and will open one of the first small-format CityTarget
 $1,150                                                                                                                                  stores in downtown Seattle this summer. Target is offering
                                                                                                                                         one-stop shopping, including groceries, to urban dwellers in
 $1,100 
                                                                                                                                         Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
 $1,050 

 $1,000                                                                                                                                                   Greater Seattle New Development

  $950                                                                                                                                8,000

  $900                                                                                                                                7,000
              Q2 07

                          Q3 07

                                      Q1 08

                                                 Q3 08

                                                          Q1 09

                                                                  Q3 09

                                                                            Q1 10

                                                                                       Q3 10

                                                                                                       Q1 11

                                                                                                                   Q3 11

                                                                                                                             Q1 12




                                                                                                                                      6,000
                                                                                                                                      5,000
                                                                                                                                      4,000
                                                                                                                                      3,000
                                                                                                                                      2,000
                                                                                                                                      2 000
                                                                                                                                      1,000
                                                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                                   2010         2011        2012        2013      2014    2015

                                                                                                                                                             Completed     Under Construction   Planned




                                                                                                                                                                                   Colliers International |   p. 5
research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily




                                                                                                               Vacancy                   Cap Rates               Construction             Rents

                                                                                      2012
                  Eastside                                                            2013




                            Eastside Market Vacancy
                   Eastside Market Vacancy                                                                                    Multifamily rents on the Eastside are the highest in the region and
 10.0%                                                                                                                        vacancy rates have dropped to 3.7%. Eastside office vacancy has fallen
  9.0%                                                                                                                        below 10%, the lowest in the region.
  8.0%                                                                                                                        •	 Touchstone  announced they are moving ahead “full throttle” with
  7.0%
                                                                                                                               their redevelopment plans for Kirkland Parkplace. Google is rumored
  6.0%
                                                                                                                               to be a likely tenant for a portion of the 1.2 million SF of office/tech
  5.0%
                                                                                                                               space. (Daily Journal of Commerce, 4/13/12)
  4.0%
  4 0%
  3.0%                                                                                                                        •	 Seattle
                                                                                                                                      is still capturing many of the young creative and tech
  2.0%                                                                                                                         workers that commute to the Eastside, but some urban villages are
  1.0%                                                                                                                         cropping up on the Eastside to keep Gen Y on that side of Lake
  0.0%                                                                                                                         Washington. Look to the downtowns of Redmond, Bellevue, Kirkland
          Q1 00

                  Q1 01

                            Q1 02

                                       Q1 03

                                               Q1 04

                                                         Q1 05

                                                                  Q1 06

                                                                          Q1 07

                                                                                  Q1 08

                                                                                          Q1 09

                                                                                                   Q1 10

                                                                                                              Q1 11

                                                                                                                      Q1 12




                                                                                                                               and even Bothell to become denser and hipper as this development
                                                                                                                               cycle unfolds with improved infrastructure and strategic
                                                                                                                               development within their emerging urban city centers.
                                                                                                                              •	 TheEastside’s strong high-tech employment base led by Microsoft
                                                                                                                               continues to draw an educated workforce to the area. As
                                                                                                                               neighborhood walkability and abundant transit options become
                                                                                                                               increasingly important, city officials are responding to this demand.
                               Eastside Average Rent
                  Eastside Average Rent                                                                                       •	 Many cities on the Eastside have joined forces to ensure conversion
                                                                                                                               of the Eastside rail corridor into a regional trail and linear park. This
$1,350                                                                                                                         44-mile rail corridor runs from Renton to Snohomish. In Redmond
                                                                                                                               the trail parallels the planned East Link light rail station. In Kirkland,
$1,300                                                                                                                         the corridor connects a key Highway 520 park-and-ride with a
                                                                                                                               Google campus and Totem Lake.
$1,250                                                                                                                        •	 Plansfor the East link light rail extension from Seattle through
                                                                                                                               Mercer Island, I-90 core, Bellevue and eventually Redmond are in the
$1,200 
$1 200
                                                                                                                               final design stage.

$1,150                                                                                                                                         eastside Projected New Development
                                                                                                                              2,000
$1,100                                                                                                                        1,800
                                                                                                                              1,600
          Q2 07

                    Q3 07

                               Q1 08

                                           Q3 08

                                                       Q1 09

                                                                 Q3 09

                                                                          Q1 10

                                                                                  Q3 10

                                                                                           Q1 11

                                                                                                      Q3 11

                                                                                                                  Q1 12




                                                                                                                              1,400
                                                                                                                              1,200
                                                                                                                              1,000
                                                                                                                               800
                                                                                                                               600
                                                                                                                               400
                                                                                                                               200
                                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                            2010        2011          2012        2013      2014      2015

                                                                                                                                                     Completed       Under Construction   Planned



                                                                                                                                                                          Colliers International |    p. 6
research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily




                                                                       Vacancy                 Cap Rates                            Construction                                    Rents

                                                              2012
                     Southend                                 2013




                                                                                                                  Southend Market Vacancy
                                                                                                       Southend Market Vacancy
•	    Occupancy in the Southend is improving (from 5.9% Q3 2011 to 5.6%          9.0%
     Q1 2012) but is still above 5%. Opportunistic investors should look to      8.0%
     this region for a late-recovering market. We particularly like Kent and
                                                                                 7.0%
     Renton for the employment story
                                                                                 6.0%
•	 Rents    are up just 1.76% YOY in the Southend to $924 which is still         5.0%
     about 4% off the Q3 2008 peak of $959. With relatively flat supply          4.0%
     (only 499 new units planned for the Southend through 2015), demand
                                                                                 3.0%
     should begin to push rents in earnest as the Southend continues its
                                                                                 2.0%
     pattern of population and job growth.
                                                                                 1.0%
•	 Paccar,    one of the key Southend employers, recently received an order      0.0%
     for 1,000 Kenworth T680 trucks. The deal is similar to the $100




                                                                                                                                                                                                Q1 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Q1 12
                                                                                                                                                                    Q1 08

                                                                                                                                                                               Q1 09

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                                                                                                                        Q1 03

                                                                                                                                Q1 04
                                                                                           Q1 00

                                                                                                      Q1 01

                                                                                                                Q1 02
     million/1,000 truck deal received two years ago. (PSBJ 3/22/12)
•	 We    discuss Boeing at length in the Snohomish County section, but the
     Southend is not to be neglected. The company has five facilities and
     numerous suppliers in the Southend, all adding capacity. This includes
     the Renton plant where the 737s are manufactured.

                                                                                                                Southend Average Rent
                                                                                                              Southend Average Rent
                                                                                 $1,000 

                                                                                  $950 

                      Southend New Development                                    $900 

     600
                                                                                  $850 
                                                                                  $850
     500

     400                                                                          $800 
     300
                                                                                  $750 
     200
                                                                                                   Q2 07

                                                                                                              Q3 07

                                                                                                                        Q1 08

                                                                                                                                Q3 08

                                                                                                                                         Q1 09

                                                                                                                                                    Q3 09

                                                                                                                                                                Q1 10

                                                                                                                                                                            Q3 10

                                                                                                                                                                                       Q1 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                Q3 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q1 12



     100

      0
              2010          2011           2012            2013      2014

                         Completed   Under Construction   Planned




                                                                                                                                                  Colliers International |                              p. 7
research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily




                                                                         Vacancy               Cap Rates                                  Construction                                     Rents

                                                         2012
        Snohomish County                                 2013




•	 Rents      are up 3.40% YOY in Snohomish County to $974 which                             Snohomish Co Market Vacancy
                                                                                               Snohomish County Market Vacancy

     is still 3.3% off the Q3 2008 peak of $1,006. Like the                        10.0%
     Southend, we also like Snohomish County for investors looking                  9.0%
     for markets that are just about to recover in earnest.                         8.0%
                                                                                    7.0%
•	 The    new development pipeline for all of Snohomish County
                                                                                    6.0%
     through 2014 is less than 1,000 units. The largest project,
                                                                                    5.0%
     Bailey’s Farm, a 372-unit development between Bothell and
                                                                                    4.0%
                                                                                    4 0%
     Mill Creek, is currently under construction for 2013 delivery.
                                                                                    3.0%
Successes continue to add up at Boeing, which has a huge                            2.0%
presence in Snohomish County:                                                       1.0%
•	                                                                                  0.0%
     Fifty 787 Dreamliners have come off the production line as of
                                                                                             Q1 00

                                                                                                       Q1 01

                                                                                                                  Q1 02

                                                                                                                          Q1 03

                                                                                                                                     Q1 04

                                                                                                                                               Q1 05

                                                                                                                                                        Q1 06

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                                                                                                                                                                                   Q1 09

                                                                                                                                                                                             Q1 10

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Q1 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Q1 12
     February.
•	
     The 747- 800, Boeing’s largest plane ever developed, has FAA
     certification, and both the freighter and passenger
                                                                                                 Snohomish County Avg Rent
                                                                                                   Snohomish County Average Rent
     configurations are now being delivered.                                       $1,050 
•	
     The Air Force Tanker contract, which will also be built at the
                                                                                   $1,000 
     Everett plant, promises 20-year stability that is essentially
     immune to cycles. With an initial order of $35 billion,
                                                                                    $950 
     projections have gone as high as $100 billion for long-term
     production as well as orders from foreign countries for their air              $900 
                                                                                    $900
     refueling tanker needs.
•	
     Boeing is the country’s largest exporter with roughly 80                       $850 
     percent of its airliners sold overseas where the 787 Dreamliner
     is most popular (Wired.com, 2/17/12).                                          $800 
                                                                                               Q2 07

                                                                                                          Q3 07

                                                                                                                      Q1 08

                                                                                                                                  Q3 08

                                                                                                                                             Q1 09

                                                                                                                                                       Q3 09

                                                                                                                                                                 Q1 10

                                                                                                                                                                          Q3 10

                                                                                                                                                                                     Q1 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                Q3 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Q1 12
•	
     Boeing added 9,000 workers in Washington since the end of
     2010 and now employs 82,325 in the state.
•	
     As Boeing ramps up production to record levels in both Renton                         Snohomish County projected New Development
     and Everett, Washington’s 650 aerospace suppliers are adding
                                                                                   1000
     capacity and gearing up to meet the company’s needs.                           900
•	
     The Boeing Company has a $300 billion backlog of airplane                      800
     orders and by 2013 it will be cranking out about 60 airplanes                  700

     per month, according to Janice Greene, senior manager of                       600
                                                                                    500
     supplier diversity for Boeing Commercial Airplanes (The
                                                                                    400
     Columbian, 04/1/2012).
                                                                                    300
•	
     Over the next two decades, the state’s most powerful employer                  200
     plans to sell 33,500 commercial airplanes for a cool $4 trillion               100
     (Seattle Times, 2/7/12).                                                         0
                                                                                             2010                   2011                   2012                 2013              2014                   2015

                                                                                                           Completed                      Under Construction                     Planned



                                                                                                                                                          Colliers International |                                  p. 8
research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily
  PUGET SOUND APARTMENT VACANCY REPORT
                                  Mar 03     Sep 03      Mar 04      Sep 04   Mar 05   Sep 05   Mar 06   Sep 06   Mar 07   Sep 07   Mar 08   Sep 08   Mar 09   Sep 09   Mar 10   Sep 10   Mar 11   Sep 11     Mar 12
  King County:                     7.5%        7.4%        7.1%        7.2%    6.7%     5.3%     4.7%     4.2%     3.9%     3.8%     4.1%     4.8%     6.8%     6.7%     6.0%     4.9%     4.3%     4.7%       4.1%
  Seattle North                    6.5%        6.9%        7.0%        6.0%    5.9%      3.9%    3.6%     2.5%     1.9%     2.6%     2.9%     2.7%     5.1%     6.9%     6.5%     4.0%     3.8%     3.6%       3.1%
    Shoreline                      7.5%        7.1%        6.7%        8.1%    7.1%      4.9%    5.7%     3.3%     3.9%     4.3%     2.7%     3.6%     4.6%     7.8%     7.1%     3.9%     5.0%     4.2%       4.0%
    North Seattle                  6.5%        6.9%        7.0%        6.0%    5.9%      3.9%    3.6%     2.5%     1.9%     2.6%     2.9%     2.7%     5.1%     6.9%     6.5%     4.0%     3.8%     3.6%       3.3%
    Ballard                        4.8%        2.8%       4.6%         2.3%    3.6%     2.2%     2.3%     0.8%     1.0%     0.5%     1.5%     1.0%     3.6%     6.7%     2.9%     2.7%     3.2%     2.0%       3.1%
    Greenlake/Wallingford          4.0%       10.3%        3.3%        4.3%    5.7%      4.1%    2.4%     3.4%     2.1%     1.6%     2.0%     3.6%     4.2%     5.9%     4.1%     2.8%     2.3%     3.9%       2.1%
    University                     6.4%       11.4%        4.7%        4.3%    4.1%     4.8%     2.6%     4.2%     0.8%     2.8%     1.3%     2.3%     3.7%     7.2%     5.7%     5.3%     2.9%     3.1%       2.3%
  Seattle Central                  7.4%       6.8%         6.7%        5.4%    5.3%     4.0%     4.0%     3.3%     3.2%     3.4%     3.7%     3.5%     6.4%     5.6%     5.0%     3.6%     3.6%     3.5%       3.1%
    Downtown/Belltwn/SLU           8.2%        7.0%        7.8%        6.5%    5.8%      4.9%    5.6%     4.8%     4.3%     4.6%     5.1%     4.5%     7.9%     6.0%     4.6%     4.6%     4.3%     4.7%       4.2%
    Capitol Hill/Eastlake          6.1%        5.6%       4.6%         4.4%    4.4%      3.4%    2.5%     1.8%     1.5%     1.8%     2.0%     1.7%     4.9%     4.3%     5.0%     2.4%     2.7%     2.3%       2.3%
    First Hill                     8.3%        9.3%        8.1%        5.6%    5.8%      4.3%    2.7%     2.9%     2.4%     2.9%     3.7%     3.3%     6.4%     6.9%     4.9%     3.1%     2.8%     3.3%       2.8%
    Magnolia                       7.0%       4.8%         7.5%        7.0%    5.6%      3.3%    4.8%     3.0%     2.8%     2.2%     3.9%     3.6%     4.5%     6.6%     6.8%     2.7%     5.9%     3.4%       4.1%
    Madison/Leschi                 3.4%        1.0%        5.8%        0.5%    3.3%     0.5%     6.7%     0.0%     2.9%     1.4%     3.1%     1.1%     4.0%     2.8%     3.9%     1.1%     0.7%     0.9%       1.5%
    Queen Anne                     6.7%        5.6%        5.2%        3.9%    4.8%      2.9%    2.7%     2.5%     2.9%     3.1%     2.5%     3.5%     6.1%     4.5%     5.0%     3.7%     3.8%     3.6%       1.9%
    Central District               9.7%        8.5%       7.0%         6.7%    5.6%     5.0%     5.2%     3.9%     6.3%     4.9%     4.8%     4.8%     6.6%     7.7%     5.6%     4.5%     4.3%     3.6%       3.4%
  Seattle South                    7.6%       8.0%         7.7%        8.6%    7.8%      7.2%    5.0%     4.5%     3.5%     3.1%     3.7%     4.0%     7.2%     8.0%     6.8%     5.5%     4.5%     4.7%       4.4%
    Beacon Hill                    6.7%       6.0%        10.7%        4.6%    5.3%     16.9%    2.9%     3.6%     4.7%     1.5%     3.0%     3.8%     3.7%     6.3%     8.1%     3.5%     4.9%     2.9%       1.6%
    Burien                         8.7%        9.1%       9.2%        10.8%    8.9%      7.5%    5.2%     5.2%     4.9%     3.8%     4.2%     3.7%     9.6%     11.2%    6.3%     5.9%     4.1%     4.6%       5.2%
    Rainier Valley                 3.7%        7.4%        4.3%        7.9%    6.2%      5.4%    8.7%     4.7%     3.1%     3.0%     2.8%     1.6%     2.4%      2.1%    3.2%     3.1%     2.8%     1.9%       2.6%
    Tukwila/Riverton                7.1%       8.3%        7.0%        9.2%    7.7%      6.5%    5.2%     3.7%     3.4%     4.1%     4.2%     4.6%     7.1%     6.7%     6.2%     5.4%     4.4%     5.1%       4.2%
    Seatac                         8.0%        8.7%       8.4%         6.9%    9.4%      8.7%    5.1%     6.1%     3.1%     2.5%     3.9%     5.0%     8.5%     11.0%    9.6%     7.3%     6.8%     6.1%       4.3%
    West Seattle                   8.2%       6.6%        6.8%         6.4%    6.0%     6.2%     3.6%     3.3%     2.3%     1.6%     2.0%     2.7%     4.3%     4.5%     5.4%     3.5%     2.8%     2.8%       4.1%
  Eastside                          7.1%       6.7%       6.5%         6.8%    6.3%     4.6%     4.0%     4.4%     3.9%     3.9%     4.1%     4.5%     6.7%     5.6%     5.1%     4.1%     4.2%     4.5%       3.7%
    Bellevue East                  6.6%       6.0%        5.0%         6.0%    5.7%      3.1%    2.6%     3.2%     2.7%     2.8%     2.6%     3.8%     6.0%     5.2%     4.3%     3.2%     3.6%     3.9%       2.7%
    Bellevue West                  5.6%       6.2%        6.4%         6.5%    5.1%     4.6%     3.2%     4.2%     3.5%     4.6%     4.9%     4.6%     6.9%     5.8%     5.4%     3.2%     3.9%     4.3%       3.3%
    Bothell South                  4.7%        7.4%        5.1%        5.1%    6.8%     4.4%     3.6%     4.1%     4.3%     3.2%     3.8%     2.6%     6.9%     6.0%     5.5%     3.6%     2.6%     4.1%       3.8%
    Factoria                       8.4%       8.6%        8.0%         5.5%    7.2%      4.3%    2.5%     5.6%     3.9%     4.1%     4.9%     5.4%     6.2%     6.3%     6.8%     5.3%     5.4%     5.2%       3.4%
    Issaquah                      12.0%        8.7%       11.3%       10.1%   10.0%      6.3%    6.9%     4.7%     4.5%     4.0%     4.7%     4.6%     7.0%      5.1%    5.1%     4.1%     4.3%     5.1%       4.2%
    Juanita                        6.2%        6.4%        7.8%        7.5%    6.3%     5.0%     4.3%     3.2%     3.4%     3.5%     4.3%     5.4%     6.6%      6.1%    5.3%     5.5%     4.8%     4.2%       4.2%
    Kirkland                       9.0%       4.4%         6.5%        5.9%    5.9%      7.4%    4.2%     6.8%     4.9%     6.7%     6.1%     7.8%     9.5%     6.2%     5.8%     6.0%     5.5%     5.3%       4.2%
    Mercer Island                   7.1%       5.5%        4.5%        6.9%    6.2%     2.8%    12.8%     4.5%     6.8%     2.1%     7.2%     6.7%     7.5%     3.7%     2.5%     4.5%     6.2%     5.6%       4.1%
    Redmond                        5.9%        6.9%        5.2%        7.2%    5.4%     4.8%     4.0%     5.5%     4.4%     4.7%     3.9%     4.1%     6.7%     5.9%     5.2%     4.4%    4.0%      4.8%       4.2%
    Woodinville/Totem Lk           8.1%        7.3%        7.2%        5.6%    6.4%      5.5%    2.8%     2.4%     4.1%     2.0%     3.9%     3.8%     5.4%     4.5%     5.8%     3.8%     3.5%     3.5%       4.7%
  Southend                         8.3%        7.9%        7.8%        8.2%    7.4%     6.4%     5.9%     5.0%     4.9%     4.6%     5.0%     6.5%     7.8%     7.8%     7.3%     6.5%     5.2%     5.9%       5.6%
    Renton                         8.4%       8.0%         8.5%        8.3%    7.1%     6.8%     5.8%     5.2%     5.5%     4.8%     5.4%     6.1%     8.0%     8.3%     7.8%     6.5%     4.8%     6.4%       5.9%
    Kent                           8.4%        7.8%        7.9%        7.1%    7.2%      5.4%    5.9%     5.0%     4.1%     4.4%     4.6%     6.3%     7.7%     7.0%     6.7%     6.7%     4.6%     5.4%       5.1%
    Des Moines                     9.2%        8.8%        8.9%       10.8%    7.9%      7.6%    6.7%     4.9%     5.7%     5.6%     5.8%     7.7%     7.6%     7.7%     7.0%     7.7%    6.0%      5.8%       6.1%
    Federal Way                    8.0%        7.2%        7.1%        8.3%    8.3%     6.8%     5.5%     4.4%     5.6%     4.9%     4.9%     7.2%     8.4%     7.8%     7.7%     6.2%     6.4%     6.4%       5.9%
    Auburn                         7.4%        8.7%        6.9%        8.1%    6.8%      6.3%    6.1%     5.7%     3.9%     3.5%     4.1%     5.6%     7.1%     8.5%     7.3%     5.8%     4.8%     5.3%       5.5%
  Snohomish County:                9.0%       9.0%         8.5%        7.7%    6.3%      5.8%    4.7%     3.9%     4.0%     4.0%     4.8%     5.8%     6.8%     6.9%     5.7%     5.7%     4.4%     5.1%       4.6%
    Everett Central                11.5%       9.6%        9.3%        6.7%    8.4%     8.6%     5.5%     3.7%     3.1%     3.5%     3.8%     6.0%     6.9%     6.7%     7.8%     7.0%     4.8%     5.0%       5.4%
    Mukilteo/Paine Field           11.6%      12.2%      10.0%         8.4%    6.1%      6.1%    5.4%     4.5%     5.3%     4.6%     5.9%     7.2%     7.7%     8.0%     8.7%     6.1%     4.7%     5.9%       5.5%
    Silver Lake                    9.5%        8.9%        8.1%        7.7%    6.1%     6.2%     5.9%     4.2%     4.6%     4.3%     5.5%     6.4%     7.5%     7.0%     4.9%     6.6%     4.4%     5.4%       4.5%
    Lynnwood                        8.1%      8.0%        8.2%         8.4%    7.2%     4.8%     4.4%     3.4%     3.6%     3.9%     4.8%     5.6%     6.8%     7.4%     5.3%     5.3%     4.4%     4.9%       3.5%
    Edmonds                        8.6%        8.5%        8.3%        7.7%    5.8%      4.5%    5.2%     3.4%     2.9%     2.6%     3.0%     3.8%     4.9%     7.6%     5.4%     5.8%     6.0%     5.0%       4.3%
    Mill Creek                     6.2%       6.0%         7.0%        6.2%    5.9%      5.3%    3.3%     3.7%     3.2%     3.8%     4.6%     6.0%     7.0%     6.0%     3.9%     4.7%     3.9%     4.9%       6.2%
    Marysville/Monroe              7.9%        7.9%        5.2%        5.0%    3.5%      3.7%    2.1%     0.9%     2.1%     1.7%     1.5%     3.1%     4.2%     3.5%     3.9%     4.4%     2.6%     4.0%       3.1%
    Mountlake Terrace              8.6%        9.2%        9.7%       10.0%    8.7%      7.7%    3.7%     4.3%     2.5%     3.4%     4.6%     6.0%     6.4%     6.8%     4.8%     5.3%     5.3%     4.4%       4.5%
    Bothell North                  6.9%        8.1%        7.9%        6.0%    5.1%      5.5%    3.1%     4.3%     4.5%     4.7%     4.3%     4.0%     5.6%     5.0%     4.4%     4.8%     3.4%     4.0%       3.5%
  Pierce County:                   6.7%        6.9%       8.0%         8.2%    6.5%      4.9%    4.8%     7.4%     5.9%     3.6%     3.9%     4.5%     6.0%     9.3%     7.6%     5.0%     5.6%     6.2%       5.8%
  Total 3-County Area:             7.7%        7.6%        7.5%        7.4%    6.6%      5.3%    4.7%     4.8%     4.3%     3.8%     4.2%     4.9%     6.6%     7.2%     6.3%     5.0%     4.6%     5.0%       4.5%
  Puget Sound Overall:             7.6%        7.3%        7.3%        7.4%    6.5%      5.3%    4.6%     4.7%     4.4%     3.8%     4.1%     4.8%     6.6%     7.2%     6.3%     5.0%     4.6%     5.3%       4.7%
                                                                                                                                                                          Colliers International |          p. 9
  Source: Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors, duprescott.com, (206) 935-2915

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Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

  • 1. Dave Schumacher Sr. Vice President 206 382 8555 dave.schumacher@colliers.com David W. Mortensen Sr. Associate 206 382 8554 david.mortensen@colliers.com Dylan P. Simon Associate 206 624 7413 dylan.simon@colliers.com FIRST QUARTER 2012 Research & Knowledge Report Seattle Multifamily Colliers International 601 Union St., Ste 5300 | Seattle, WA 98101 www.colliers.com
  • 2. Q1 2012 | MultiFamily Colliers International | Seattle research & forecast Report Demand Driving Construction, Rates Driving Sales The biggest building boom in 25 years is taking place in Seattle. In the past, most new construction happened in the suburbs. In this cycle, however, the vast majority of the new product is in Seattle proper – Downtown, First Hill/Capitol Hill, Fremont/Ballard, and the University District. At the same time, Puget Sound area employment is up 2.5% year-over-year, which is stronger than previously thought, and the area is expected to add jobs at a rate of 2% or better every year through 2016. Inside, we examine the potential new product and project how much of it will actually be built. We examine employment growth and demand forecasts to determine if and when the market will be oversaturated by the new supply, or whether the strong demand will absorb the new product. We also look at the investment market – specifically sales volume and cap rates. Sales volume is market indicators increasing and is likely to continue to increase throughout 2012 and 2013. Downward pressure on cap rates continues, but we expect it to flatten out this year. What market forces could reverse cap 2012 2013 rate compression? Finally, we take a brief look at each of the major market regions within the Seattle metro area – Seattle, Eastside, Southend and Snohomish County. VACANCY Cap Rates Key Indicators Supply and Demand construction • Tri-Countysales volume totaled $408 • Employment is projected to grow between million in Q1 2012 vs. $100 million Q1 2011 2.0% and 2.5% annually in the Puget Sound rents • Rents through 2016 (economicforecaster.com) in the Seattle MSA have risen 4.8% year-over-year according to Apartment • Approximately 3,500 new units are expected to Insights be delivered in 2012 • Vacancy is down to 4.1% in King County • New development should peak in 2013 with a and 4.6% in Snohomish County projected 6,300 new units • 18% are offering concessions vs. the Q1 2010 peak of 62% (duprescott.com) Puget Sound HOme Ownership rates 67.0% “There remains an aversion 66.0% to home ownership as 65.0% evidenced by still downward- trending home ownership 64.0% rates. This phenomenon 63.0% continues to stimulate 62.0% demand by depressing 61.0% turnover and thereby limiting 60.0% fresh new supply.” Thomas 59.0% W. Toomey, president and 58.0% CEO of UDR (The Watch List, Feb 9, 2012) www.colliers.com/seattle
  • 3. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily Growing Supply, Growing Demand Projected Deliveries in King and Snohomish Counties There are 28,000 total units that are either under construction or in 10,000 planning stages in King and Snohomish Counties. To try to put that in some 9,000 perspective, we handicap the various stages of development for likelihood of completion. We assume that 100% of the properties currently under 8,000 construction will be completed. We handicap properties in the planning 7,000 stages at different levels based on projected year of delivery. We project 6,000 that 70% of properties in planning for 2013 delivery will be completed. We 5,000 project 60% completion for 2014 properties and 50% for 2015 and the 4,000 projects in planning without delivery dates as yet. The total projected 6,887 3,000 5,731 delivery over the next 4 years using that handicapping scheme just over 2,000 3,949 20,000 units. We believe actual deliveries are highly unlikely to exceed 2,976 that number and may well fall short. 1,000 632 - 2012 2013 2014 2015 Future Completed Under Construction Planning Projected Yellow bars indicate our own projections of actual deliveries Projecting Employment Growth Projected Job Growth in King and Snohomish Counties After projected new development, employment is the primary factor 45,000 that determines when and if Seattle gets overbuilt. 40,000 Employment in the Seattle area grew faster than previously thought, 35,000 causing Conway and Pedersen (economicforecaster.com) to increase 30,000 their 2012 employment forecasts up by 12,400 jobs in King and Snohomish Counties. Unemployment is now down to 7.4% in King 25,000 County (which peaked at 9.0% Q4 2009) and 8.2% in Snohomish 20,000 County (which peaked at 10.6% Q4 2009). They project unemployment 15,000 to drop to 7.1%/7.9% in 2013 (King/Snohomish), 6.9%/7.7% in 2014 10,000 and 6.6%/7.3% in 2015. 6,643 6,635 6,182 4,315 5,000 2,086 Employment is the primary driver of in-migration and apartment - demand, so improving employment bodes well for absorption of new 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 supply. Our demand projections come from a March 2012 O’Connor New Jobs New Apartment Demand Consulting Group report. Those projections do not take into account Conway and Pedersen’s now increased employment forecast, so an updated demand projection would likely be somewhat higher. Sources: Employment – economicforecaster.com, Demand – O’Connor Consulting Group (Mar 2012) Colliers International | p. 2
  • 4. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily Projecting Demand and new Development Deliveries are expected to peak in 2013 for this cycle and taper down to more typical levels. Still, this development cycle is not likely to end any time soon. We have been predicting a housing shortage in the Seattle market since 2008. The market lost nearly 10,000 units from 2004-2007 which the development pipeline has just replaced as of last year. Demand currently exceeds supply even though unemployment is still around 8%. The demand projections from O’Connor Consulting Group show that new households and employment growth are expected to keep demand in front of supply for the foreseeable future. Projected Demand vs. Deliveries Projected Vacancy 8,000 5.0% 7,000 4.5% 6,000 4.0% 3.5% 5,000 3.0% 4,000 2.5% 3,000 2.0% 2,000 1.5% 1,000 1.0% - 0.5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.0% New Apartment Demand New Deliveries 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sales Volume Rising Tri-County Sales Volume Puget Sound sales volume returned to more typical levels in 2011, and $2,500,000,000 2012 looks to build on that momentum. Q1 2012 sales volume in the tri-county area totaled $408 million vs. $100 million in Q1 2011. Deal flow should continue to rise throughout 2012 and 2013. $2,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $500,000,000 $0 King Pierce Snohomish Cap Rates Compressing king county cap rates Interest rates and the 10-year treasury have been major factors driving 9.0% cap rate compression in this cycle. At this point, neither the 10-year 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% nor cap rates are likely to go any lower, particularly given the record 8.0% 7.4% low 1.79% 10-year treasury yield seen earlier this year. The Fed has 6.8% 7.0% 6.3% 6.2% promised to keep interest rates “low” through 2014, but that may not 5.6% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% 6.0% stop the 10-year from creeping up as we witnessed in March. 4.8% 5.2% Downward pressure on cap rates will likely ease somewhat following 5.0% any upward movement in interest rates and the 10-year yield. 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Colliers International | p. 3
  • 5. EVERETT Snohmish County Top Employers > The Boeing Company > Zumiez > Naval Station Everett > Aviation Technical Services SNOHOMISH > Providence Regional Medical Center > Rinker Materials NW > Premera Blue Cross > Fluke Corp > Tulalip Tribes > Intermec MILL CREEK > Philips Medical Systems MONROE LYNNWOOD Snohomish County EDMONDS Greater Seattle Top Employers > University of Washington > Starbucks Corp > Amazon.com > Perkins Coie BOTHELL WOODINVILLE > King County Government > Expeditors International > Group Health Cooperative > Real Networks Inc > Nordstrom Inc > Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation > Swedish Medical Center > Russell Investments Eastside Greater Seattle REDMOND Eastside Top Employers > Microsoft > Symetra Financial > Nintendo > Data I/O Corp SEATTLE BELLEVUE > Costco Wholesale > Concur Technologies > Expedia Inc > Clearwire Corp > Esterline Technologies > Google ISSAQUAH RENTON BURIEN TUKWILA SEATAC Southend Average Rent and Vacancy - Seattle MSA Markets $1,400 10% KENT $1,300 9% 8% $1,200 GIG HARBOR Southend Top Employers 7% $1,100 FEDERAL WAY > The Boeing Company > Paccar Inc / Kenworth 6% AUBURN $1,000 > Port of Seattle > Alaska Air Group 5% $900 > Providence Health > IKEA 4% > Valley Medical Center > REI $800 3% > Weyerhaeuser > Mikron Industries $700 TACOMA 2% $600 1% $500 Pierce County 0% Greater Seattle Eastside Southend Snohomish County Average Rent/SF Average Vacancy Rate PUYALLUP
  • 6. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily Vacancy Cap Rates Construction Rents 2012 Greater Seattle 2013 Greater Seattle Market Vacancy After the recession and the collapse of Washington Mutual, the Gr Seattle Market Vacancy downtown Seattle office and retail sectors have rebounded 8.00% dramatically. 7.00% • Downtown employment growth is driving apartment development 6.00% which is why 75% of the region’s new projects are being built in Seattle. In fact, Seattle ranked fifth nationally for job growth 5.00% between January 2011 and January 2012 (PSBJ 3/23/12). 4.00% • Amazon has played a critical role in the downtown surge. Along 3.00% 3 00% with the new South Lake Union campus headquarters, it recently 2.00% announced plans to add a staggering 3 million square feet of office 1.00% in the Denny Triangle. Amazon has almost single-handedly driven 0.00% down the office vacancy rate in the northern edge of downtown by leasing up office space nearby. Amazon’s rapid expansion has also Q1 00 Q1 01 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 been a catalyst for the restaurant and apartment surge in South Lake Union and the rush to build apartments elsewhere in the downtown core. • The downtown retail sector led by Nordstrom is thriving. Nordstrom is expanding into the Quest Plaza tower recently Greater Seattle Average Rent Greater Seattle Average Rent purchased by Clarion. The company, which already occupied over one million SF in downtown Seattle, signed a 20-year lease for $1,250  300,000 SF. Meanwhile, Target purchased 103,000 SF of space $1,200  in 2010 and will open one of the first small-format CityTarget $1,150  stores in downtown Seattle this summer. Target is offering one-stop shopping, including groceries, to urban dwellers in $1,100  Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco and Los Angeles. $1,050  $1,000  Greater Seattle New Development $950  8,000 $900  7,000 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2 000 1,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Completed Under Construction Planned Colliers International | p. 5
  • 7. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily Vacancy Cap Rates Construction Rents 2012 Eastside 2013 Eastside Market Vacancy Eastside Market Vacancy Multifamily rents on the Eastside are the highest in the region and 10.0% vacancy rates have dropped to 3.7%. Eastside office vacancy has fallen 9.0% below 10%, the lowest in the region. 8.0% • Touchstone announced they are moving ahead “full throttle” with 7.0% their redevelopment plans for Kirkland Parkplace. Google is rumored 6.0% to be a likely tenant for a portion of the 1.2 million SF of office/tech 5.0% space. (Daily Journal of Commerce, 4/13/12) 4.0% 4 0% 3.0% • Seattle is still capturing many of the young creative and tech 2.0% workers that commute to the Eastside, but some urban villages are 1.0% cropping up on the Eastside to keep Gen Y on that side of Lake 0.0% Washington. Look to the downtowns of Redmond, Bellevue, Kirkland Q1 00 Q1 01 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 and even Bothell to become denser and hipper as this development cycle unfolds with improved infrastructure and strategic development within their emerging urban city centers. • TheEastside’s strong high-tech employment base led by Microsoft continues to draw an educated workforce to the area. As neighborhood walkability and abundant transit options become increasingly important, city officials are responding to this demand. Eastside Average Rent Eastside Average Rent • Many cities on the Eastside have joined forces to ensure conversion of the Eastside rail corridor into a regional trail and linear park. This $1,350  44-mile rail corridor runs from Renton to Snohomish. In Redmond the trail parallels the planned East Link light rail station. In Kirkland, $1,300  the corridor connects a key Highway 520 park-and-ride with a Google campus and Totem Lake. $1,250  • Plansfor the East link light rail extension from Seattle through Mercer Island, I-90 core, Bellevue and eventually Redmond are in the $1,200  $1 200 final design stage. $1,150  eastside Projected New Development 2,000 $1,100  1,800 1,600 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Completed Under Construction Planned Colliers International | p. 6
  • 8. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily Vacancy Cap Rates Construction Rents 2012 Southend 2013 Southend Market Vacancy Southend Market Vacancy • Occupancy in the Southend is improving (from 5.9% Q3 2011 to 5.6% 9.0% Q1 2012) but is still above 5%. Opportunistic investors should look to 8.0% this region for a late-recovering market. We particularly like Kent and 7.0% Renton for the employment story 6.0% • Rents are up just 1.76% YOY in the Southend to $924 which is still 5.0% about 4% off the Q3 2008 peak of $959. With relatively flat supply 4.0% (only 499 new units planned for the Southend through 2015), demand 3.0% should begin to push rents in earnest as the Southend continues its 2.0% pattern of population and job growth. 1.0% • Paccar, one of the key Southend employers, recently received an order 0.0% for 1,000 Kenworth T680 trucks. The deal is similar to the $100 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 00 Q1 01 Q1 02 million/1,000 truck deal received two years ago. (PSBJ 3/22/12) • We discuss Boeing at length in the Snohomish County section, but the Southend is not to be neglected. The company has five facilities and numerous suppliers in the Southend, all adding capacity. This includes the Renton plant where the 737s are manufactured. Southend Average Rent Southend Average Rent $1,000  $950  Southend New Development $900  600 $850  $850 500 400 $800  300 $750  200 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Completed Under Construction Planned Colliers International | p. 7
  • 9. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily Vacancy Cap Rates Construction Rents 2012 Snohomish County 2013 • Rents are up 3.40% YOY in Snohomish County to $974 which Snohomish Co Market Vacancy Snohomish County Market Vacancy is still 3.3% off the Q3 2008 peak of $1,006. Like the 10.0% Southend, we also like Snohomish County for investors looking 9.0% for markets that are just about to recover in earnest. 8.0% 7.0% • The new development pipeline for all of Snohomish County 6.0% through 2014 is less than 1,000 units. The largest project, 5.0% Bailey’s Farm, a 372-unit development between Bothell and 4.0% 4 0% Mill Creek, is currently under construction for 2013 delivery. 3.0% Successes continue to add up at Boeing, which has a huge 2.0% presence in Snohomish County: 1.0% • 0.0% Fifty 787 Dreamliners have come off the production line as of Q1 00 Q1 01 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 February. • The 747- 800, Boeing’s largest plane ever developed, has FAA certification, and both the freighter and passenger Snohomish County Avg Rent Snohomish County Average Rent configurations are now being delivered. $1,050  • The Air Force Tanker contract, which will also be built at the $1,000  Everett plant, promises 20-year stability that is essentially immune to cycles. With an initial order of $35 billion, $950  projections have gone as high as $100 billion for long-term production as well as orders from foreign countries for their air $900  $900 refueling tanker needs. • Boeing is the country’s largest exporter with roughly 80 $850  percent of its airliners sold overseas where the 787 Dreamliner is most popular (Wired.com, 2/17/12). $800  Q2 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 • Boeing added 9,000 workers in Washington since the end of 2010 and now employs 82,325 in the state. • As Boeing ramps up production to record levels in both Renton Snohomish County projected New Development and Everett, Washington’s 650 aerospace suppliers are adding 1000 capacity and gearing up to meet the company’s needs. 900 • The Boeing Company has a $300 billion backlog of airplane 800 orders and by 2013 it will be cranking out about 60 airplanes 700 per month, according to Janice Greene, senior manager of 600 500 supplier diversity for Boeing Commercial Airplanes (The 400 Columbian, 04/1/2012). 300 • Over the next two decades, the state’s most powerful employer 200 plans to sell 33,500 commercial airplanes for a cool $4 trillion 100 (Seattle Times, 2/7/12). 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Completed Under Construction Planned Colliers International | p. 8
  • 10. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily PUGET SOUND APARTMENT VACANCY REPORT Mar 03 Sep 03 Mar 04 Sep 04 Mar 05 Sep 05 Mar 06 Sep 06 Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09 Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 King County: 7.5% 7.4% 7.1% 7.2% 6.7% 5.3% 4.7% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% 4.8% 6.8% 6.7% 6.0% 4.9% 4.3% 4.7% 4.1% Seattle North 6.5% 6.9% 7.0% 6.0% 5.9% 3.9% 3.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 5.1% 6.9% 6.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.1% Shoreline 7.5% 7.1% 6.7% 8.1% 7.1% 4.9% 5.7% 3.3% 3.9% 4.3% 2.7% 3.6% 4.6% 7.8% 7.1% 3.9% 5.0% 4.2% 4.0% North Seattle 6.5% 6.9% 7.0% 6.0% 5.9% 3.9% 3.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 5.1% 6.9% 6.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.3% Ballard 4.8% 2.8% 4.6% 2.3% 3.6% 2.2% 2.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 3.6% 6.7% 2.9% 2.7% 3.2% 2.0% 3.1% Greenlake/Wallingford 4.0% 10.3% 3.3% 4.3% 5.7% 4.1% 2.4% 3.4% 2.1% 1.6% 2.0% 3.6% 4.2% 5.9% 4.1% 2.8% 2.3% 3.9% 2.1% University 6.4% 11.4% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 4.8% 2.6% 4.2% 0.8% 2.8% 1.3% 2.3% 3.7% 7.2% 5.7% 5.3% 2.9% 3.1% 2.3% Seattle Central 7.4% 6.8% 6.7% 5.4% 5.3% 4.0% 4.0% 3.3% 3.2% 3.4% 3.7% 3.5% 6.4% 5.6% 5.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% Downtown/Belltwn/SLU 8.2% 7.0% 7.8% 6.5% 5.8% 4.9% 5.6% 4.8% 4.3% 4.6% 5.1% 4.5% 7.9% 6.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% Capitol Hill/Eastlake 6.1% 5.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 3.4% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.7% 4.9% 4.3% 5.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% First Hill 8.3% 9.3% 8.1% 5.6% 5.8% 4.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 6.4% 6.9% 4.9% 3.1% 2.8% 3.3% 2.8% Magnolia 7.0% 4.8% 7.5% 7.0% 5.6% 3.3% 4.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.5% 6.6% 6.8% 2.7% 5.9% 3.4% 4.1% Madison/Leschi 3.4% 1.0% 5.8% 0.5% 3.3% 0.5% 6.7% 0.0% 2.9% 1.4% 3.1% 1.1% 4.0% 2.8% 3.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.5% Queen Anne 6.7% 5.6% 5.2% 3.9% 4.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 3.5% 6.1% 4.5% 5.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 1.9% Central District 9.7% 8.5% 7.0% 6.7% 5.6% 5.0% 5.2% 3.9% 6.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 6.6% 7.7% 5.6% 4.5% 4.3% 3.6% 3.4% Seattle South 7.6% 8.0% 7.7% 8.6% 7.8% 7.2% 5.0% 4.5% 3.5% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 7.2% 8.0% 6.8% 5.5% 4.5% 4.7% 4.4% Beacon Hill 6.7% 6.0% 10.7% 4.6% 5.3% 16.9% 2.9% 3.6% 4.7% 1.5% 3.0% 3.8% 3.7% 6.3% 8.1% 3.5% 4.9% 2.9% 1.6% Burien 8.7% 9.1% 9.2% 10.8% 8.9% 7.5% 5.2% 5.2% 4.9% 3.8% 4.2% 3.7% 9.6% 11.2% 6.3% 5.9% 4.1% 4.6% 5.2% Rainier Valley 3.7% 7.4% 4.3% 7.9% 6.2% 5.4% 8.7% 4.7% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 1.6% 2.4% 2.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 1.9% 2.6% Tukwila/Riverton 7.1% 8.3% 7.0% 9.2% 7.7% 6.5% 5.2% 3.7% 3.4% 4.1% 4.2% 4.6% 7.1% 6.7% 6.2% 5.4% 4.4% 5.1% 4.2% Seatac 8.0% 8.7% 8.4% 6.9% 9.4% 8.7% 5.1% 6.1% 3.1% 2.5% 3.9% 5.0% 8.5% 11.0% 9.6% 7.3% 6.8% 6.1% 4.3% West Seattle 8.2% 6.6% 6.8% 6.4% 6.0% 6.2% 3.6% 3.3% 2.3% 1.6% 2.0% 2.7% 4.3% 4.5% 5.4% 3.5% 2.8% 2.8% 4.1% Eastside 7.1% 6.7% 6.5% 6.8% 6.3% 4.6% 4.0% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 4.1% 4.5% 6.7% 5.6% 5.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.5% 3.7% Bellevue East 6.6% 6.0% 5.0% 6.0% 5.7% 3.1% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 3.8% 6.0% 5.2% 4.3% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9% 2.7% Bellevue West 5.6% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 5.1% 4.6% 3.2% 4.2% 3.5% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 6.9% 5.8% 5.4% 3.2% 3.9% 4.3% 3.3% Bothell South 4.7% 7.4% 5.1% 5.1% 6.8% 4.4% 3.6% 4.1% 4.3% 3.2% 3.8% 2.6% 6.9% 6.0% 5.5% 3.6% 2.6% 4.1% 3.8% Factoria 8.4% 8.6% 8.0% 5.5% 7.2% 4.3% 2.5% 5.6% 3.9% 4.1% 4.9% 5.4% 6.2% 6.3% 6.8% 5.3% 5.4% 5.2% 3.4% Issaquah 12.0% 8.7% 11.3% 10.1% 10.0% 6.3% 6.9% 4.7% 4.5% 4.0% 4.7% 4.6% 7.0% 5.1% 5.1% 4.1% 4.3% 5.1% 4.2% Juanita 6.2% 6.4% 7.8% 7.5% 6.3% 5.0% 4.3% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 4.3% 5.4% 6.6% 6.1% 5.3% 5.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% Kirkland 9.0% 4.4% 6.5% 5.9% 5.9% 7.4% 4.2% 6.8% 4.9% 6.7% 6.1% 7.8% 9.5% 6.2% 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 4.2% Mercer Island 7.1% 5.5% 4.5% 6.9% 6.2% 2.8% 12.8% 4.5% 6.8% 2.1% 7.2% 6.7% 7.5% 3.7% 2.5% 4.5% 6.2% 5.6% 4.1% Redmond 5.9% 6.9% 5.2% 7.2% 5.4% 4.8% 4.0% 5.5% 4.4% 4.7% 3.9% 4.1% 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.4% 4.0% 4.8% 4.2% Woodinville/Totem Lk 8.1% 7.3% 7.2% 5.6% 6.4% 5.5% 2.8% 2.4% 4.1% 2.0% 3.9% 3.8% 5.4% 4.5% 5.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 4.7% Southend 8.3% 7.9% 7.8% 8.2% 7.4% 6.4% 5.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 5.0% 6.5% 7.8% 7.8% 7.3% 6.5% 5.2% 5.9% 5.6% Renton 8.4% 8.0% 8.5% 8.3% 7.1% 6.8% 5.8% 5.2% 5.5% 4.8% 5.4% 6.1% 8.0% 8.3% 7.8% 6.5% 4.8% 6.4% 5.9% Kent 8.4% 7.8% 7.9% 7.1% 7.2% 5.4% 5.9% 5.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6% 6.3% 7.7% 7.0% 6.7% 6.7% 4.6% 5.4% 5.1% Des Moines 9.2% 8.8% 8.9% 10.8% 7.9% 7.6% 6.7% 4.9% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8% 7.7% 7.6% 7.7% 7.0% 7.7% 6.0% 5.8% 6.1% Federal Way 8.0% 7.2% 7.1% 8.3% 8.3% 6.8% 5.5% 4.4% 5.6% 4.9% 4.9% 7.2% 8.4% 7.8% 7.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 5.9% Auburn 7.4% 8.7% 6.9% 8.1% 6.8% 6.3% 6.1% 5.7% 3.9% 3.5% 4.1% 5.6% 7.1% 8.5% 7.3% 5.8% 4.8% 5.3% 5.5% Snohomish County: 9.0% 9.0% 8.5% 7.7% 6.3% 5.8% 4.7% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.9% 5.7% 5.7% 4.4% 5.1% 4.6% Everett Central 11.5% 9.6% 9.3% 6.7% 8.4% 8.6% 5.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% 6.0% 6.9% 6.7% 7.8% 7.0% 4.8% 5.0% 5.4% Mukilteo/Paine Field 11.6% 12.2% 10.0% 8.4% 6.1% 6.1% 5.4% 4.5% 5.3% 4.6% 5.9% 7.2% 7.7% 8.0% 8.7% 6.1% 4.7% 5.9% 5.5% Silver Lake 9.5% 8.9% 8.1% 7.7% 6.1% 6.2% 5.9% 4.2% 4.6% 4.3% 5.5% 6.4% 7.5% 7.0% 4.9% 6.6% 4.4% 5.4% 4.5% Lynnwood 8.1% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 7.2% 4.8% 4.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 4.8% 5.6% 6.8% 7.4% 5.3% 5.3% 4.4% 4.9% 3.5% Edmonds 8.6% 8.5% 8.3% 7.7% 5.8% 4.5% 5.2% 3.4% 2.9% 2.6% 3.0% 3.8% 4.9% 7.6% 5.4% 5.8% 6.0% 5.0% 4.3% Mill Creek 6.2% 6.0% 7.0% 6.2% 5.9% 5.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.8% 4.6% 6.0% 7.0% 6.0% 3.9% 4.7% 3.9% 4.9% 6.2% Marysville/Monroe 7.9% 7.9% 5.2% 5.0% 3.5% 3.7% 2.1% 0.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% 3.1% 4.2% 3.5% 3.9% 4.4% 2.6% 4.0% 3.1% Mountlake Terrace 8.6% 9.2% 9.7% 10.0% 8.7% 7.7% 3.7% 4.3% 2.5% 3.4% 4.6% 6.0% 6.4% 6.8% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 4.4% 4.5% Bothell North 6.9% 8.1% 7.9% 6.0% 5.1% 5.5% 3.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7% 4.3% 4.0% 5.6% 5.0% 4.4% 4.8% 3.4% 4.0% 3.5% Pierce County: 6.7% 6.9% 8.0% 8.2% 6.5% 4.9% 4.8% 7.4% 5.9% 3.6% 3.9% 4.5% 6.0% 9.3% 7.6% 5.0% 5.6% 6.2% 5.8% Total 3-County Area: 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4% 6.6% 5.3% 4.7% 4.8% 4.3% 3.8% 4.2% 4.9% 6.6% 7.2% 6.3% 5.0% 4.6% 5.0% 4.5% Puget Sound Overall: 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4% 6.5% 5.3% 4.6% 4.7% 4.4% 3.8% 4.1% 4.8% 6.6% 7.2% 6.3% 5.0% 4.6% 5.3% 4.7% Colliers International | p. 9 Source: Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors, duprescott.com, (206) 935-2915