David Tennant, PE, PMP
         770-846-0828


Biomass Power Technical Seminar
 Georgia Institute of Technology
        At...
Agenda

• Worldwide Energy Use

• Population Growth and Energy Demand

• The Implications

• Policy Approach

• Conclusions
The Tipping Point?

Energy worldwide is going through
fundamental, structural changes.
Driving this are increased demand,
...
Lets Consider a Few Questions

1. What are the energy impacts of increasing world
   population?

2. What role should “alt...
Energy and Our Standard of Living

In North America, we have had a stable and inexpensive source of
energy for the past 50...
Source: UN
The world population
increased from 3
billion in 1959 to 6
billion by 1999, a
doubling that
occurred over 40
years.
The wo...
World Energy Mix
                       Source: Simmons & Co.



                         1972                  1980   199...
“
    …       ”–
        ’
World Electricity
Generation
2006
What about costs?
World Projected Energy Use
Interesting Facts
•   In 2007, China was commissioning two coal-fired power plants
    every week

•   At current worldwid...
The Implications

The worldwide demand for oil will grow by 30 to 50 percent
over the next two decades. What if demand out...
The Implications
There are not any near-term alternatives to oil, gas, and coal.
These fuel sources will be around for dec...
The Reality
• If passed, it is estimated that the “Cap & Trade” bill will
increase electric rates by 20 %.

• The average ...
The Reality
                           - Continued -

• The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)
c...
Comparing Technology Load Factors

First, load factor is the percentage of hours that a
power plant operates at maximum ca...
Comparing Technology Load Factors

Base-load plants are the most efficient and will generate
power around the clock.

Inte...
Comparing Technology Load Factors and Costs
           Base-load Plants            L.F. (USA) Capital Cost per kW
   Nucle...
Traditional Energy Generation-
                    Worldwide
Electric Utilities:        Other:
                           ...
Traditional Energy Generation -
            Georgia

    • Coal          63%
    • Nuclear       23%
    • Hydro          ...
What is a Reasonable Approach?
Utilities
1. It is likely that Utilities will take the lead in alternative energy
   produc...
What is a Reasonable Approach?
Utilities
3. Utilities maintain and sometimes operate the “grid.” Wind
   farms will need t...
What is a Reasonable Approach?
Government
5. The private sector will generate new technologies and
   innovative solutions...
What is a Reasonable Approach?

Regulatory
8. There will not be any reduction in GHGs with unilateral
   reductions only b...
What is a Reasonable Approach?
Industry

10. There will be opportunities to make money. Companies and the
    free market ...
Conclusions
1. All forms of energy production will be needed in the years to
   come. It is unrealistic to believe that al...
Conclusions
4. A partnership between industry and government will be needed
   to meet the nation’s energy needs.

5. The ...
Thank You!
Energy Survey  Future Use
Energy Survey  Future Use
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Energy Survey Future Use

  1. 1. David Tennant, PE, PMP 770-846-0828 Biomass Power Technical Seminar Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, Georgia March 11 – 13, 2010
  2. 2. Agenda • Worldwide Energy Use • Population Growth and Energy Demand • The Implications • Policy Approach • Conclusions
  3. 3. The Tipping Point? Energy worldwide is going through fundamental, structural changes. Driving this are increased demand, environmental concerns, new technologies, and tax incentives for renewable energy development.
  4. 4. Lets Consider a Few Questions 1. What are the energy impacts of increasing world population? 2. What role should “alternative” energy play? 3. What are the short- and long-term implications for the USA?
  5. 5. Energy and Our Standard of Living In North America, we have had a stable and inexpensive source of energy for the past 50 years. This includes both petroleum and electricity. This has led to our high standard of living: the use of cars, freedom of movement, heating and cooling our homes, and the convenience of our electronic devices such as computers, flat screen TVs, etc. The world population is increasing and everyone else wants our standard of living too. What are the implications?
  6. 6. Source: UN
  7. 7. The world population increased from 3 billion in 1959 to 6 billion by 1999, a doubling that occurred over 40 years. The world population is projected to grow from 6 billion in 1999 to 9 billion by 2045, an increase of 50 percent that is expected to require 46 years.
  8. 8. World Energy Mix Source: Simmons & Co. 1972 1980 1990 1999 Petroleum 46% 43% 40% 41% Natural Gas 19% 19% 23% 24% TTL Hydrocarbons 65% 62% 63% 65% Coal 29% 29% 28% 25% Nuclear 0.70% 3% 7% 8% Hydro 0.60% 6% 2% 2% TTL 100% 100% 100% 100% Remarkable stability for 30 years
  9. 9. “ … ”– ’
  10. 10. World Electricity Generation 2006
  11. 11. What about costs?
  12. 12. World Projected Energy Use
  13. 13. Interesting Facts • In 2007, China was commissioning two coal-fired power plants every week • At current worldwide MW consumption, there is enough coal to last 150 years. The US exports approx 100-mm tons of coal/yr. • With 5% annual growth, the coal will last 50 years • China already uses more coal than the United States, the European Union and Japan combined. It has increased coal consumption 14 percent in each of the past two years.
  14. 14. The Implications The worldwide demand for oil will grow by 30 to 50 percent over the next two decades. What if demand outstrips supply? Wind and solar energy are not alternatives to fossil fuels; but should be considered supplements. However, biomass as a viable fuel source has a strong future. Electric cars may be “the future” and may decrease petroleum demand. However, they will increase electric demand.
  15. 15. The Implications There are not any near-term alternatives to oil, gas, and coal. These fuel sources will be around for decades into the future. Politics can only do so much to stimulate alternative energy development. In the end, it boils down to the laws of thermodynamics and economics. The US has invested trillions of dollars in power plants, distribution, pipelines, etc. Changing this system to an alternative-energy based scheme will require not only new investment and decades of time; but new breakthroughs in energy technology.
  16. 16. The Reality • If passed, it is estimated that the “Cap & Trade” bill will increase electric rates by 20 %. • The average person has very little knowledge of what is involved with energy production and distribution; its technical limits or costs. • We desire a cheap and plentiful supply of energy for our convenience, but do not want to build new nuclear or coal power plants, drill off-shore, or construct new refineries. Each of these production facilities would take about 8 to 10 years to design and construct. Can you say NIMBY?
  17. 17. The Reality - Continued - • The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) consists primarily of the industrialized nations. By 2050, it is projected that 70% of CO2 emissions will be emitted by non- OECD countries, most notably China and India. • Solar and wind energy make up less than 3% of our energy mix. The marketplace has made this determination based on costs and availability. • Renewables currently provide about 4 % of our electric generation.
  18. 18. Comparing Technology Load Factors First, load factor is the percentage of hours that a power plant operates at maximum capacity. For example, a 1,000 MW plant that runs at 98% LF means that this plant produces 1,000 MW for 98% of the hours in a year. Base load plants typically run higher than 90% and some as high as 98%. Hydro plants can fall into this category if they are large and the river flow is constant.
  19. 19. Comparing Technology Load Factors Base-load plants are the most efficient and will generate power around the clock. Intermediate plants are the next most efficient and include medium size coal-fired plants, say around 100 to 300 MW. Peaking plants are the most expensive to run, but are used when the demand for power is high: during summer months and the middle of the day (8 am to 5 pm). This consists of combustion turbines and less efficient fossil-fueled plants.
  20. 20. Comparing Technology Load Factors and Costs Base-load Plants L.F. (USA) Capital Cost per kW Nuclear Plants (1,000 MW) Ave 92% $2,000 Large Coal-fired Plants (500+ MW) Above 90% $1,500 Large Hydro Plants (500 MW+) 75% $1,500 Biomass (<100 MW) 70 to 85% $1,500 to $2,500 Geothermal 90% $2,000 to $2,500 Intermediate Load Plants Coal-fired plants (100 to 300 MW) 25 to 60% N/A Hydro 50 to 100 44% $4,000 Combined Cycle 60 to 90% $1,500 Peak Load Generation Gas Turbine A/R $900 to $1,100 Wind (land-based) 30% $1,200 to $2,200 Solar - Thermal 20% $3,150 Solar - PV 30 to 40% $4,000
  21. 21. Traditional Energy Generation- Worldwide Electric Utilities: Other: (paper/developers) • Coal • Nuclear • Coal • Hydro • Woody biomass • Gas • Gas • Oil • Geothermal • Geothermal • WTE
  22. 22. Traditional Energy Generation - Georgia • Coal 63% • Nuclear 23% • Hydro 2% • Gas 9.3% • Oil 0.6% • Renewables 2.6%
  23. 23. What is a Reasonable Approach? Utilities 1. It is likely that Utilities will take the lead in alternative energy production. For example, biomass power generation and wind energy. They have the necessary financial resources. 2. Utilities can convert older, less efficient coal-fired plants to biomass much more easily, and cheaply, than others building new green field sites.
  24. 24. What is a Reasonable Approach? Utilities 3. Utilities maintain and sometimes operate the “grid.” Wind farms will need to tap into the grid to distribute power. Several utilities have already made significant investments in wind power. (Note FPL and Duke Energy) 4. Streamline the licensing process for new development and construction of nuclear power plants. Nuclear plants do not emit any GHGs.
  25. 25. What is a Reasonable Approach? Government 5. The private sector will generate new technologies and innovative solutions. But only Government can provide the massive funding needed to encourage new product innovation and alternative energy implementation. 6. There should be continued R&D into alternative fuels for transportation (cars, trucks, and jets) and clean coal technologies. 7. Solar PV fields are coming down in cost. Funding for R&D can be supported by government grants and by research at DOE labs.
  26. 26. What is a Reasonable Approach? Regulatory 8. There will not be any reduction in GHGs with unilateral reductions only by the OECD countries. India, China, and other developing nations also need to be included in any proposed reductions. 9. New regulations, if any, should be based on sound science. Further, regulatory agencies need to provide clear and unambiguous policy.
  27. 27. What is a Reasonable Approach? Industry 10. There will be opportunities to make money. Companies and the free market will determine how to produce and distribute energy in the most cost-effective manner. 11. Current equity markets are pretty dry. Funding must come from existing deep pockets (the Exxon-Mobil’s of the world) or government. This is a capital intensive industry.
  28. 28. Conclusions 1. All forms of energy production will be needed in the years to come. It is unrealistic to believe that alternative energies can displace current fossil fuels. 2. The demand for energy will require the use of all available technologies and fuels to provide a continued stable source of energy: nuclear, coal, biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc. etc. 3. The increasing world population will drive the demand, and costs, of energy higher as the developing nations meet their energy needs.
  29. 29. Conclusions 4. A partnership between industry and government will be needed to meet the nation’s energy needs. 5. The free market will determine which technologies will succeed. Biomass energy has a definite role to play in power production. 6. When comparing power-generation technologies, it is appropriate to note the load factor in comparing the economics. 7. Utilities can (and will) play an active role in generating and distributing electricity from alternative energy.
  30. 30. Thank You!

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