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Analysis of the First-Past –the-Post 
Electoral System in Malawi 
Dr. Henry G. Chingaipe 
Institute for Policy Research & Social Empowerment 
Email: henrychingaipe@yahoo.co.uk 
26th June 2014
Outline of Presentation 
1. Introduction 
 Definition of an electoral system 
 The significance of electoral systems 
in democratic politics and 
governance 
 Typology of electoral systems 
2. Malawi’s Electoral System: Empirical 
outcomes 
 Description of the system 
 Advantages of the system 
 Disadvantages of the system 
2. Securing Legitimacy and Legality for a 
Malawian President: A Case for TRS 
 Description of the TRS 
 Advantages of the TRS 
 Disadvantages of the TRS 
3. Electoral Systems and the 
Inclusion/Exclusion of Women 
 How FPTP excludes women – the 
case of Malawi 
 How PR includes women – lessons 
from Mozambique and South Africa 
4. Alternative routes to inclusion for 
women: Affirmative action/quota – 
Lessons from Uganda and Tanzania 
5. Concluding remarks 
 Legitimacy of government in Malawi: 
Is it about Electoral systems or 
system of government or other 
factors? 
 A case for TRS and associated reforms 
 A case for statutory quota for women
Electoral system: Definition 
• The mechanisms by which the preferences of citizens 
are translated into seats in representative 
institutions. 
• At the most basic level, electoral systems translate 
the votes cast in an election into seats won by parties 
and candidates 
• The key variables of an electoral system are: 
 The electoral formula used i.e. whether the system is 
majoritarian or proportional AND what mathematical 
formula is used to calculate the allocation of seats.
Electoral system cont’d 
• The ballot structure i.e. whether the voter 
votes for a candidate or a party AND whether 
the voter makes a single choice or expresses a 
series of preferences. 
• constituency magnitude i.e. how many 
representatives a constituency or ward elects.
Types of Electoral Systems 
• There are many types of electoral systems but they 
fall in three broad categories that are further 
distinguished into a total of 12 main types 
• In addition, there are ‘other’ electoral systems, which 
do not fit perfectly well in these three broad 
categories. Such systems are also rarely used.
Electoral systems- A Typology 
Electoral 
system 
majority 
FPTP 
TRS 
BV 
PBV 
AV 
PR 
List PR 
STV 
Mixed 
MMP 
parallel 
Other 
SNTV 
LV 
BC
Electoral System: Importance 
• The subject of electoral systems ought to be of central interest to 
anyone concerned with the operation of democratic systems of 
Government because they structure and condition some of the 
important democratic institutional setups of a country: 
 The nature of political parties and the party systems that emerge 
are influenced by the kind of electoral systems in place. 
 Nature of political representation-The relationship that exits 
between those elected and their respective electorate is also 
shaped to some extent by electoral systems. 
 Whether politics will be adversarial and confrontational or 
accommodative and consensus oriented may have to with the type 
of electoral system(s) in use. 
 Furthermore, with regard to chances of winning, what or who is 
elected under one system may not be elected under another.
Malawi’s Electoral System 
• Known as ‘first past the post’ (FPTP), ‘winner 
takes all’, ‘single member constituency’ and 
‘single ballot’. 
Basic Features 
• Provides for the election of an individual 
candidate to represent people of a clearly defined 
geographical area. 
• In voting, each voter places a single mark beside 
the name of the candidate of his or her choice. 
• In order to win, a candidate requires only one 
more vote than the closest competitor.
Advantages of FPTP 
• Can produce single party Executive leading to 
more capability to implement policies and 
legislation (more relevant in parliamentary 
government) 
• Produces a clear opposition and government 
• Relatively simple for the electorate, especially 
where illiteracy is high. 
• Considered superior in representation of 
constituency interests because of a direct, vertical 
connection between elected representatives and 
voters.
Advantages of FPTP 
• Discriminates against minority parties either 
through underrepresentation or complete 
exclusion and therefore curtails the 
destabilizing impact of tiny (extremist) parties 
• FPTP system improves the quality of elected 
office holders because voters are free to 
choose between candidates rather than just 
political parties.
Disadvantages 
• The System has the potential to produce a winner elected 
by a minority. 
– Presidential level: 1994, 2004,2014 
– Parliamentary: 99 in 2004; 110 in 2009; 134 in 2014 
• This puts the legitimacy of the winner at stake. Thus, a 
candidate may be legally elected but may lack legitimacy to 
feel accepted by a majority of the electorate. 
• Losing parties and/or candidates secure votes but no seats. 
This means that the votes for losing candidates are ‘wasted’ 
because they are not represented by anyone in Parliament. 
– This amounts to systemic disenfranchisement. This increases 
alienation from the political system and the likelihood of anti-system 
movements.
Disadvantages cont’d 
• The system exaggerates and encourages regional 
and tribal fiefdoms or other parochial identities 
• Interests of the electorate whose parties have no 
chance of winning in fiefdoms have no chance of 
being represented. 
– This poses challenges for nation building. 
– Disenfranchisement 
• The system is particularly open to manipulation 
by ruling parties through gerrymandering - 
1999??
Disadvantages 
• The FPTP system also entrenches the ‘monetization of 
politics’ syndrome. The system puts the candidate in 
the limelight and compels him or her to engage in 
extravagant expenditures aimed at keeping votes or 
winning new ones. 
• System does not favour the election of women – Next 
presentation by Mrs Emma Kaliya. 
• In the event of a vacancy in Parliament, the system 
demands a by-election and scales up the costs of 
electoral administration. 
• Requires review of constituency boundaries 
periodically in relation to population – currently there
Constituency Demarcation 
• The MEC is mandated and obliged by the Constitution 
in Section 76 (2) to determine constituency boundaries 
on the basis of approximately equal numbers of voters 
eligible to register, subject to population density; ease 
of communication; geographical features and existing 
administrative areas. 
• 76(2)(b) the MEC is mandated and obliged to review 
constituency boundaries at intervals of not more than 
5 years and alter them in accordance with the 
principles provided in section 76(2)
Constituency Demarcation cont’d 
• Last review published in January 1999 
• Non compliance due to late appointments of 
commissioners and lack of funding 
• EC Strategic plan says review will be done in 
2017 in preparation for the 2019 TPE 
• Look out for gerrymandering: 1999 report 
recommended 70 new constituencies: 11N, 
17C, 42S. (247 member Parliament)
Is there a Case? 
Voter population differences in smallest and largest constituencies 
2014 2009 2004 
Smallest constituency Likoma 6,842 Likoma 5,107 Likoma 4,794 
Largest constituency Lilongwe City Central 99,629 Lilongwe City Central 
87,088 
Lilongwe North 
71,081 
Range 92,805 81,981 66,287 
Mean constituency voter 
population 
7,537,548/193 = 39054.65 5,871,819/193 = 30423.93 5,752 028/193 =29,803
• The principle of political equality and equality of 
population of eligible voters per constituency is 
seriously undermined (over-representation in 111 
constituencies; Underrepresentation in 82 
constituencies. 
• The findings on under-representation and over-representation 
entail that there is need to rethink a 
few things that are based on constituencies. For 
instance, there is need to think of a formula of 
differentiation in the allocation of Constituency 
Development Fund (CDF) to make it variable with the 
population.
• Preliminary calculations suggest that numbers 
of constituencies must increase in 9 districts: 
Dowa, Mchinji,Lilongwe,Dedza,Balaka and 
Blantyre 
• However, there is a strong enough opinion 
that rather than increasing constituencies, the 
country should be seeking ways of reducing 
the number of seats in the National Assembly 
(!).
Securing Legitimacy for a President 
• The Two Round System (TRS) is also known by 
other names, notably, ‘Run-off’, ‘double-ballot’ 
and ‘successive ballots.’ 
• Each of the names indicates a central feature of 
the system: that it is not one election but takes 
place in two rounds. 
• The objective is for the wining candidate to be 
elected by an ABSOLUTE MAJORITY of VALID 
votes 
• This system is commonly used in presidential 
elections.
TRS Cont’d 
Basic features 
• Voters express a simple preference for a single 
candidate just as in FPTP. 
• If a candidate receives an absolute majority, he or 
she is elected outright with no need for a second 
ballot. 
• Normally, in such a re-run, the top-most two 
candidates contest 
• In Kenya, in addition to a candidate obtaining an 
absolute majority (50%+1), the candidate has also to 
obtain at least 25% of the vote cast in at least half of 
the provinces.
TRS- Advantages 
• It allows voters to have a second choice for their 
chosen candidate, or even to change their minds on 
their favored choice. 
• It encourages diverse interests to coalesce behind the 
successful candidates from the first round in the build-up 
to the second round, thus encouraging bargains and 
trade-offs between parties and candidates. 
• In countries like Kenya, where the TRS is combined 
with the regional threshold requirement, the system 
has the potential of ensuring that who ever wins has 
not only an absolute majority, but also a relatively 
balanced regional/provincial legitimacy.
TRS - DISADVANTAGES 
• The system places considerable pressure on the 
electoral administration to run a second election 
soon after the first thereby significantly increasing 
the overall cost of the election. 
• It places an additional burden on the voter with 
voter apathy affecting the second round – a lower 
absolute majority may be worse off than a higher 
simple majority. 
•
TRS - DISADVANTAGES 
• It shares many of the disadvantages of ‘first past 
the post’. – wasted votes for losing candidate ; 
voters losing with their candidate(RWANDA: 
Ruling party no more than 51% of cabinet). 
• In countries which are not politically stable, the 
waiting period between the first and second 
elections may pose a great danger as it may result 
in political uncertainties which may have wider 
political social and economic repercussions.
Conclusion 
• Key Questions 
– Retain FPTP or adopt PR? 
– For presidential elections: Retain FPTP or adopt 
TRS? 
– Is it really about Electoral systems or system of 
Government? Presidential, Parliamentary; Semi-presidential? 
*** THANK YOU VERY MUCH***
INCLUSION & EXCLUSION OF 
WOMEN
FPTP and Women 
• Research has shown that this system does not 
favour the election of women and other 
marginalised groups 
• Why do few women contest and even fewer get 
elected under this formula? 
• Constituency magnitude influences party 
strategies and criteria for picking candidates -the 
party has no chance to balance the party ticket to 
take care of gender concerns or objectives. 
• A party candidate will either be male or female 
because the nominating decision is a strictly 
‘zero-sum’ game
FPTP & Women 
• Are local party elites to blame? -Not necessarily. They are 
influenced by their perceptions about the probability of winning 
the seat for their party 
• Women who wish to be considered by the local party selection 
committee have to contend with the selectors’ stereotypes and 
sexist assumptions about the attributes of an ‘electable’ candidate 
• The absolute number of female candidates is low but has been 
growing. 
– In 1999, it was 60 out of 666 nominees (9%) 
– In 2004, it was 153 out of 1,365 (11.2%). 
– In 2009, it was 239 (20.3%). 
– In 2014 it is 257 
• There is still lack of enthusiasm for political positions among 
women (50/50 cannot just be in results!).
FPTP & Women 
• Under FPTP any attempt by a political party to 
increase the number of women MPs has to mean 
selecting them for ‘safe’ or winnable seats. 
– However, this inevitably means throwing out sitting 
male MPs. 
• The establishment of a new party seems to 
provide opportunities for women because the 
problem of de-selecting sitting MPs does not 
arise. 
• For example in 2004,NDA and RP fielded more 
women candidates than AFORD and MCP. So too 
DPP in 2009
Female Candidates in Parliamentary 
elections 
0 
20 
40 
60 
80 
100 
120 
140 
160 
180 
200 
220 
240 
260 
280 
UDF 
AFORD 
MCP 
MDP 
NPF 
UP 
MDU 
INDEPENDENT 
CONU 
PETRA 
PPM 
MGODE 
MAFUNDE 
NDA 
RP 
NSM 
NUP 
NCD 
PFP 
NARC 
CODE 
MPP 
NRP 
DPP 
UMODZI 
UIP 
UP 
PP 
PDM 
NCP 
CCP 
NLP 
NASAF 
CONTESTED 
WINNERS 
1994 
1999 
2004 
2009 
2014
FPTP & Women cont’d 
• The cut-throat and personalized nature of the 
system and the extent to which it hinges on 
access to resources to run individual campaigns 
for both primary and actual elections militate 
against the participation of women 
• This is the case because many women do not 
have access to resources and are culturally 
sensitive to flagrant personality attacks and 
innuendos that are characteristic of political 
campaigns.
FPTP & Women 
• Numbers of women have increased 
– 5.65% in 1994 
– 8.8% in 1999 
– 14% in 2004. 
– 22% in 2009 
• These results show that under FPTP gradual increases can 
be achieved through positive action. 
• Positive action seeks to encourage members of the group 
suffering discrimination and to widen opportunities open to 
them 
• However the growth rate is far below the desired rate in 
tandem with international, regional and national targets. 
• In light of this, there have been calls for PR
Women & PR 
• Why do countries with PR show a strong increase 
in the number of female representatives? 
– PR systems have consistently higher constituency 
magnitudes, which lead to higher party magnitudes. 
– PR systems (esp. LIST) makes parties more conscious 
to balance their tickets. Gatekeepers divide winning 
slots among various internal party interests – ANC in 
South Africa; Frelimo in Mozambique 
– PR systems focus on the party rather than on the 
individual. Thus candidates are taken out of the direct 
spotlight that is cited as a major disincentive to the 
political participation of women under the FPTP 
system.
Women & PR 
• A PR system is superior for women if there 
are low electoral thresholds as high ones 
discourage the creation of mini parties, which 
often let in few representatives, usually male. 
• Closed party lists where the party determines 
and ranks candidates have much potency in 
delivering more women into Parliament. This 
is the case because, once decided, women’s 
names cannot be struck off or demoted.
Women & PR 
• However, this depends on the criteria that political parties 
use to select and place candidates on the party list. 
• It only delivers more women if the party has adopted some 
form of affirmative action in selecting its list candidates as 
is the case in Mozambique and South Africa 
• However, PR on its own does not guarantee increased 
women’s presence in Parliament. It needs to be 
complimented by deliberate gender quota systems, often 
at the level of political party 
• Thus the real magic resides not in the electoral system per 
se but in affirmative action through quota systems
Affirmative Action Through Quotas 
• There are constitutional (and/or statutory) 
and voluntary quotas. 
• With the former, women must constitute at 
least a minimum proportion of the elected 
representatives. 
– Argentina and Brazil where quotas are fixed at 
30% and 20% respectively 
– Uganda: one woman per district 
– Tanzania 20% of the seats in Parliament .
AA Through Quotas 
• If the electoral system in use is FPTP, the quota 
system reserves either ‘actual seats’ in the 
Assembly, for example in Tanzania, or 
constituencies, for example in Uganda. 
• The second alternative is where political 
parties adopt their own quotas for women as 
parliamentary candidates. –but does not 
guarantee election.
AA & Quotas 
• Electoral quotas which revolve around 
‘fielding female candidates’ work better with 
PR than FPTP electoral systems in terms of 
delivering results 
• Quota systems that reserve ‘ actual seats’ or 
‘constituencies’ work better with FPTP 
systems.
Quota: Advantages 
• Introducing quotas shows recognition that 
women do not start out with the same 
advantages as their male colleagues. They are 
disadvantaged by the impact of inter-generational 
institutional matrices, which 
decisively reduce their chances for candidature, 
and of being elected. 
• With quotas, the burden of recruitment is shared 
between those who run the recruitment process 
and the individual women
AA & Quotas 
• However, quotas are a much debated issue, 
they raise serious questions and in some cases 
strong resistance. 
• Opinions vary even among women themselves 
regarding their effects and fairness in 
increasing women’s representation
Arguments for and Against Quota 
Against 
• They stigmatize and call into 
question the caliber and 
credentials of qualified 
women who can be elected 
on merit 
For 
• Women are free to contest for 
constituency or ward seats on 
merit 
• Only women who have been 
candidates but have not been 
successful may be considered 
for quota seats 
• The problem is not that 
women are not capable, it is 
the fact that women are not 
visible and audible in decision 
making political structures
Arguments cont’d 
Against 
• They are against the 
principle of equal 
opportunities for all 
For 
• Liberal notion of equality of 
opportunity does not translate 
into actualized opportunities 
for women because of social 
and contextual factors 
• Quota represents a shift of 
focus from equality of 
opportunity which assumes a 
levelled playing field for men 
and women to equality of 
outcomes through direct and 
exact means of achieving 
societal goals
Arguments cont’d 
Against 
• They amount to sex 
discrimination and 
therefore unlawful and 
unconstitutional 
For 
• The low numbers despite equality of 
opportunity, show that there is systemic 
sex discrimination in practice because 
of social constraints on women that 
limit their capacity to meaningfully use 
equality of opportunity that is in the 
laws 
• Quota represents positive 
discrimination in the sense that it does 
not reduce opportunities for men but 
increases opportunities for women 
• Quota does not discriminate but 
compensates for actual barriers that 
prevent women from their fair share of 
political seats.
Arguments cont’d 
Against 
• Quotas for women require 
that other minority groups 
should have quotas too 
For 
• The issue here is not that women are a 
minority. The issue is that women are a 
majority in our society but are 
excluded; 
• Social, poverty and demographic 
indicators show that women are 
disadvantaged in many respects which 
suggests that the current levels of 
representation are far below to effect 
positive change hence the need for a 
critical mass that will help 
• Malawi have international obligations 
and quota represents the best possible 
method for delivering on those 
commitments while lifting the profile of 
women
A quota for Women in MW? 
• If YEEES 
• What matters most are the specific 
administrative details for implementing 
quotas. Thus the trick is to devise an 
implementing strategy that upholds many 
fundamental democratic values.
One Option for Mw 
• Introduce quotas of magnitude 30% for both the National Assembly 
and Local Government Councils. 
• These will be additional seats to those that are based on 
constituencies and wards respectively. Thus, women will be free to 
contest for constituency and ward seats as they have always done 
before. This quota will ensure that women constitute at least a 
critical mass of 30%. 
• The 30% additional seats should be distributed to political parties 
based on a proportional formula that is tied to electoral results. 
• There are two options for this. Either based on the proportion of 
constituency seats won by parties or on the proportion of votes 
won by parties that have seats in the national assembly or in the 
local council. 
• Introduce a threshold: only political parties that have at least 5% of 
constituency seats will be eligible for a share of quota seats for 
women
One option cont’d 
• Eligible political parties will prepare and submit lists of names of 
female candidates of their parties who lost in the constituency or 
ward elections followed by those who lost in primary elections. 
• The list of candidates must be in the order of priority based on the 
proportion of votes that the candidates amassed in the election. 
• Political parties will submit the lists of their Parliamentary 
candidates to the MEC Chairperson (or Speaker of Parliament)who 
will apply the formula of proportionality to determine how many 
candidates from each political party will share the quota seats and 
which candidates will actually take the seats. 
• For local councils political parties will submit the lists of their local 
government candidates to the Chairperson of Council who will 
apply the formula of proportionality to determine how many 
candidates from each political party will share the quota seats and 
which candidates will actually take the seats.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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Analysis of the first past -the-post electoral system

  • 1. Analysis of the First-Past –the-Post Electoral System in Malawi Dr. Henry G. Chingaipe Institute for Policy Research & Social Empowerment Email: henrychingaipe@yahoo.co.uk 26th June 2014
  • 2. Outline of Presentation 1. Introduction  Definition of an electoral system  The significance of electoral systems in democratic politics and governance  Typology of electoral systems 2. Malawi’s Electoral System: Empirical outcomes  Description of the system  Advantages of the system  Disadvantages of the system 2. Securing Legitimacy and Legality for a Malawian President: A Case for TRS  Description of the TRS  Advantages of the TRS  Disadvantages of the TRS 3. Electoral Systems and the Inclusion/Exclusion of Women  How FPTP excludes women – the case of Malawi  How PR includes women – lessons from Mozambique and South Africa 4. Alternative routes to inclusion for women: Affirmative action/quota – Lessons from Uganda and Tanzania 5. Concluding remarks  Legitimacy of government in Malawi: Is it about Electoral systems or system of government or other factors?  A case for TRS and associated reforms  A case for statutory quota for women
  • 3. Electoral system: Definition • The mechanisms by which the preferences of citizens are translated into seats in representative institutions. • At the most basic level, electoral systems translate the votes cast in an election into seats won by parties and candidates • The key variables of an electoral system are:  The electoral formula used i.e. whether the system is majoritarian or proportional AND what mathematical formula is used to calculate the allocation of seats.
  • 4. Electoral system cont’d • The ballot structure i.e. whether the voter votes for a candidate or a party AND whether the voter makes a single choice or expresses a series of preferences. • constituency magnitude i.e. how many representatives a constituency or ward elects.
  • 5. Types of Electoral Systems • There are many types of electoral systems but they fall in three broad categories that are further distinguished into a total of 12 main types • In addition, there are ‘other’ electoral systems, which do not fit perfectly well in these three broad categories. Such systems are also rarely used.
  • 6. Electoral systems- A Typology Electoral system majority FPTP TRS BV PBV AV PR List PR STV Mixed MMP parallel Other SNTV LV BC
  • 7. Electoral System: Importance • The subject of electoral systems ought to be of central interest to anyone concerned with the operation of democratic systems of Government because they structure and condition some of the important democratic institutional setups of a country:  The nature of political parties and the party systems that emerge are influenced by the kind of electoral systems in place.  Nature of political representation-The relationship that exits between those elected and their respective electorate is also shaped to some extent by electoral systems.  Whether politics will be adversarial and confrontational or accommodative and consensus oriented may have to with the type of electoral system(s) in use.  Furthermore, with regard to chances of winning, what or who is elected under one system may not be elected under another.
  • 8. Malawi’s Electoral System • Known as ‘first past the post’ (FPTP), ‘winner takes all’, ‘single member constituency’ and ‘single ballot’. Basic Features • Provides for the election of an individual candidate to represent people of a clearly defined geographical area. • In voting, each voter places a single mark beside the name of the candidate of his or her choice. • In order to win, a candidate requires only one more vote than the closest competitor.
  • 9. Advantages of FPTP • Can produce single party Executive leading to more capability to implement policies and legislation (more relevant in parliamentary government) • Produces a clear opposition and government • Relatively simple for the electorate, especially where illiteracy is high. • Considered superior in representation of constituency interests because of a direct, vertical connection between elected representatives and voters.
  • 10. Advantages of FPTP • Discriminates against minority parties either through underrepresentation or complete exclusion and therefore curtails the destabilizing impact of tiny (extremist) parties • FPTP system improves the quality of elected office holders because voters are free to choose between candidates rather than just political parties.
  • 11. Disadvantages • The System has the potential to produce a winner elected by a minority. – Presidential level: 1994, 2004,2014 – Parliamentary: 99 in 2004; 110 in 2009; 134 in 2014 • This puts the legitimacy of the winner at stake. Thus, a candidate may be legally elected but may lack legitimacy to feel accepted by a majority of the electorate. • Losing parties and/or candidates secure votes but no seats. This means that the votes for losing candidates are ‘wasted’ because they are not represented by anyone in Parliament. – This amounts to systemic disenfranchisement. This increases alienation from the political system and the likelihood of anti-system movements.
  • 12. Disadvantages cont’d • The system exaggerates and encourages regional and tribal fiefdoms or other parochial identities • Interests of the electorate whose parties have no chance of winning in fiefdoms have no chance of being represented. – This poses challenges for nation building. – Disenfranchisement • The system is particularly open to manipulation by ruling parties through gerrymandering - 1999??
  • 13. Disadvantages • The FPTP system also entrenches the ‘monetization of politics’ syndrome. The system puts the candidate in the limelight and compels him or her to engage in extravagant expenditures aimed at keeping votes or winning new ones. • System does not favour the election of women – Next presentation by Mrs Emma Kaliya. • In the event of a vacancy in Parliament, the system demands a by-election and scales up the costs of electoral administration. • Requires review of constituency boundaries periodically in relation to population – currently there
  • 14. Constituency Demarcation • The MEC is mandated and obliged by the Constitution in Section 76 (2) to determine constituency boundaries on the basis of approximately equal numbers of voters eligible to register, subject to population density; ease of communication; geographical features and existing administrative areas. • 76(2)(b) the MEC is mandated and obliged to review constituency boundaries at intervals of not more than 5 years and alter them in accordance with the principles provided in section 76(2)
  • 15. Constituency Demarcation cont’d • Last review published in January 1999 • Non compliance due to late appointments of commissioners and lack of funding • EC Strategic plan says review will be done in 2017 in preparation for the 2019 TPE • Look out for gerrymandering: 1999 report recommended 70 new constituencies: 11N, 17C, 42S. (247 member Parliament)
  • 16. Is there a Case? Voter population differences in smallest and largest constituencies 2014 2009 2004 Smallest constituency Likoma 6,842 Likoma 5,107 Likoma 4,794 Largest constituency Lilongwe City Central 99,629 Lilongwe City Central 87,088 Lilongwe North 71,081 Range 92,805 81,981 66,287 Mean constituency voter population 7,537,548/193 = 39054.65 5,871,819/193 = 30423.93 5,752 028/193 =29,803
  • 17. • The principle of political equality and equality of population of eligible voters per constituency is seriously undermined (over-representation in 111 constituencies; Underrepresentation in 82 constituencies. • The findings on under-representation and over-representation entail that there is need to rethink a few things that are based on constituencies. For instance, there is need to think of a formula of differentiation in the allocation of Constituency Development Fund (CDF) to make it variable with the population.
  • 18. • Preliminary calculations suggest that numbers of constituencies must increase in 9 districts: Dowa, Mchinji,Lilongwe,Dedza,Balaka and Blantyre • However, there is a strong enough opinion that rather than increasing constituencies, the country should be seeking ways of reducing the number of seats in the National Assembly (!).
  • 19. Securing Legitimacy for a President • The Two Round System (TRS) is also known by other names, notably, ‘Run-off’, ‘double-ballot’ and ‘successive ballots.’ • Each of the names indicates a central feature of the system: that it is not one election but takes place in two rounds. • The objective is for the wining candidate to be elected by an ABSOLUTE MAJORITY of VALID votes • This system is commonly used in presidential elections.
  • 20. TRS Cont’d Basic features • Voters express a simple preference for a single candidate just as in FPTP. • If a candidate receives an absolute majority, he or she is elected outright with no need for a second ballot. • Normally, in such a re-run, the top-most two candidates contest • In Kenya, in addition to a candidate obtaining an absolute majority (50%+1), the candidate has also to obtain at least 25% of the vote cast in at least half of the provinces.
  • 21. TRS- Advantages • It allows voters to have a second choice for their chosen candidate, or even to change their minds on their favored choice. • It encourages diverse interests to coalesce behind the successful candidates from the first round in the build-up to the second round, thus encouraging bargains and trade-offs between parties and candidates. • In countries like Kenya, where the TRS is combined with the regional threshold requirement, the system has the potential of ensuring that who ever wins has not only an absolute majority, but also a relatively balanced regional/provincial legitimacy.
  • 22. TRS - DISADVANTAGES • The system places considerable pressure on the electoral administration to run a second election soon after the first thereby significantly increasing the overall cost of the election. • It places an additional burden on the voter with voter apathy affecting the second round – a lower absolute majority may be worse off than a higher simple majority. •
  • 23. TRS - DISADVANTAGES • It shares many of the disadvantages of ‘first past the post’. – wasted votes for losing candidate ; voters losing with their candidate(RWANDA: Ruling party no more than 51% of cabinet). • In countries which are not politically stable, the waiting period between the first and second elections may pose a great danger as it may result in political uncertainties which may have wider political social and economic repercussions.
  • 24. Conclusion • Key Questions – Retain FPTP or adopt PR? – For presidential elections: Retain FPTP or adopt TRS? – Is it really about Electoral systems or system of Government? Presidential, Parliamentary; Semi-presidential? *** THANK YOU VERY MUCH***
  • 26. FPTP and Women • Research has shown that this system does not favour the election of women and other marginalised groups • Why do few women contest and even fewer get elected under this formula? • Constituency magnitude influences party strategies and criteria for picking candidates -the party has no chance to balance the party ticket to take care of gender concerns or objectives. • A party candidate will either be male or female because the nominating decision is a strictly ‘zero-sum’ game
  • 27. FPTP & Women • Are local party elites to blame? -Not necessarily. They are influenced by their perceptions about the probability of winning the seat for their party • Women who wish to be considered by the local party selection committee have to contend with the selectors’ stereotypes and sexist assumptions about the attributes of an ‘electable’ candidate • The absolute number of female candidates is low but has been growing. – In 1999, it was 60 out of 666 nominees (9%) – In 2004, it was 153 out of 1,365 (11.2%). – In 2009, it was 239 (20.3%). – In 2014 it is 257 • There is still lack of enthusiasm for political positions among women (50/50 cannot just be in results!).
  • 28. FPTP & Women • Under FPTP any attempt by a political party to increase the number of women MPs has to mean selecting them for ‘safe’ or winnable seats. – However, this inevitably means throwing out sitting male MPs. • The establishment of a new party seems to provide opportunities for women because the problem of de-selecting sitting MPs does not arise. • For example in 2004,NDA and RP fielded more women candidates than AFORD and MCP. So too DPP in 2009
  • 29. Female Candidates in Parliamentary elections 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 UDF AFORD MCP MDP NPF UP MDU INDEPENDENT CONU PETRA PPM MGODE MAFUNDE NDA RP NSM NUP NCD PFP NARC CODE MPP NRP DPP UMODZI UIP UP PP PDM NCP CCP NLP NASAF CONTESTED WINNERS 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
  • 30. FPTP & Women cont’d • The cut-throat and personalized nature of the system and the extent to which it hinges on access to resources to run individual campaigns for both primary and actual elections militate against the participation of women • This is the case because many women do not have access to resources and are culturally sensitive to flagrant personality attacks and innuendos that are characteristic of political campaigns.
  • 31. FPTP & Women • Numbers of women have increased – 5.65% in 1994 – 8.8% in 1999 – 14% in 2004. – 22% in 2009 • These results show that under FPTP gradual increases can be achieved through positive action. • Positive action seeks to encourage members of the group suffering discrimination and to widen opportunities open to them • However the growth rate is far below the desired rate in tandem with international, regional and national targets. • In light of this, there have been calls for PR
  • 32. Women & PR • Why do countries with PR show a strong increase in the number of female representatives? – PR systems have consistently higher constituency magnitudes, which lead to higher party magnitudes. – PR systems (esp. LIST) makes parties more conscious to balance their tickets. Gatekeepers divide winning slots among various internal party interests – ANC in South Africa; Frelimo in Mozambique – PR systems focus on the party rather than on the individual. Thus candidates are taken out of the direct spotlight that is cited as a major disincentive to the political participation of women under the FPTP system.
  • 33. Women & PR • A PR system is superior for women if there are low electoral thresholds as high ones discourage the creation of mini parties, which often let in few representatives, usually male. • Closed party lists where the party determines and ranks candidates have much potency in delivering more women into Parliament. This is the case because, once decided, women’s names cannot be struck off or demoted.
  • 34. Women & PR • However, this depends on the criteria that political parties use to select and place candidates on the party list. • It only delivers more women if the party has adopted some form of affirmative action in selecting its list candidates as is the case in Mozambique and South Africa • However, PR on its own does not guarantee increased women’s presence in Parliament. It needs to be complimented by deliberate gender quota systems, often at the level of political party • Thus the real magic resides not in the electoral system per se but in affirmative action through quota systems
  • 35. Affirmative Action Through Quotas • There are constitutional (and/or statutory) and voluntary quotas. • With the former, women must constitute at least a minimum proportion of the elected representatives. – Argentina and Brazil where quotas are fixed at 30% and 20% respectively – Uganda: one woman per district – Tanzania 20% of the seats in Parliament .
  • 36. AA Through Quotas • If the electoral system in use is FPTP, the quota system reserves either ‘actual seats’ in the Assembly, for example in Tanzania, or constituencies, for example in Uganda. • The second alternative is where political parties adopt their own quotas for women as parliamentary candidates. –but does not guarantee election.
  • 37. AA & Quotas • Electoral quotas which revolve around ‘fielding female candidates’ work better with PR than FPTP electoral systems in terms of delivering results • Quota systems that reserve ‘ actual seats’ or ‘constituencies’ work better with FPTP systems.
  • 38. Quota: Advantages • Introducing quotas shows recognition that women do not start out with the same advantages as their male colleagues. They are disadvantaged by the impact of inter-generational institutional matrices, which decisively reduce their chances for candidature, and of being elected. • With quotas, the burden of recruitment is shared between those who run the recruitment process and the individual women
  • 39. AA & Quotas • However, quotas are a much debated issue, they raise serious questions and in some cases strong resistance. • Opinions vary even among women themselves regarding their effects and fairness in increasing women’s representation
  • 40. Arguments for and Against Quota Against • They stigmatize and call into question the caliber and credentials of qualified women who can be elected on merit For • Women are free to contest for constituency or ward seats on merit • Only women who have been candidates but have not been successful may be considered for quota seats • The problem is not that women are not capable, it is the fact that women are not visible and audible in decision making political structures
  • 41. Arguments cont’d Against • They are against the principle of equal opportunities for all For • Liberal notion of equality of opportunity does not translate into actualized opportunities for women because of social and contextual factors • Quota represents a shift of focus from equality of opportunity which assumes a levelled playing field for men and women to equality of outcomes through direct and exact means of achieving societal goals
  • 42. Arguments cont’d Against • They amount to sex discrimination and therefore unlawful and unconstitutional For • The low numbers despite equality of opportunity, show that there is systemic sex discrimination in practice because of social constraints on women that limit their capacity to meaningfully use equality of opportunity that is in the laws • Quota represents positive discrimination in the sense that it does not reduce opportunities for men but increases opportunities for women • Quota does not discriminate but compensates for actual barriers that prevent women from their fair share of political seats.
  • 43. Arguments cont’d Against • Quotas for women require that other minority groups should have quotas too For • The issue here is not that women are a minority. The issue is that women are a majority in our society but are excluded; • Social, poverty and demographic indicators show that women are disadvantaged in many respects which suggests that the current levels of representation are far below to effect positive change hence the need for a critical mass that will help • Malawi have international obligations and quota represents the best possible method for delivering on those commitments while lifting the profile of women
  • 44. A quota for Women in MW? • If YEEES • What matters most are the specific administrative details for implementing quotas. Thus the trick is to devise an implementing strategy that upholds many fundamental democratic values.
  • 45. One Option for Mw • Introduce quotas of magnitude 30% for both the National Assembly and Local Government Councils. • These will be additional seats to those that are based on constituencies and wards respectively. Thus, women will be free to contest for constituency and ward seats as they have always done before. This quota will ensure that women constitute at least a critical mass of 30%. • The 30% additional seats should be distributed to political parties based on a proportional formula that is tied to electoral results. • There are two options for this. Either based on the proportion of constituency seats won by parties or on the proportion of votes won by parties that have seats in the national assembly or in the local council. • Introduce a threshold: only political parties that have at least 5% of constituency seats will be eligible for a share of quota seats for women
  • 46. One option cont’d • Eligible political parties will prepare and submit lists of names of female candidates of their parties who lost in the constituency or ward elections followed by those who lost in primary elections. • The list of candidates must be in the order of priority based on the proportion of votes that the candidates amassed in the election. • Political parties will submit the lists of their Parliamentary candidates to the MEC Chairperson (or Speaker of Parliament)who will apply the formula of proportionality to determine how many candidates from each political party will share the quota seats and which candidates will actually take the seats. • For local councils political parties will submit the lists of their local government candidates to the Chairperson of Council who will apply the formula of proportionality to determine how many candidates from each political party will share the quota seats and which candidates will actually take the seats.
  • 47. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION