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  • 1. The Pons-Fleischmann Effect:
    • How Bad Science Works and What We Can Learn From It.
  • 2. “ Cold Fusion”? 60 Minutes: More Than Junk Science
  • 3.  
  • 4.  
  • 5. So, What’s the Plan?
    • Standard Fusion
    • History of P-F Effect
      • MCF and the CF
      • Press Conference, secrets, money
      • DOE
      • Pariah Field
    • Current Developments
    • Summary and Conclusion
  • 6. Standard Fusion
    • E=mc^2 and the Post - WWII boom
    • H-bomb & Cold War
    • Militarization far easier than controlled production
    • Plasma research
  • 7. Standard Model
    • H2+H3-> n +He4 + 17.6 MeV
    • He4, unusually high binding energy, all nucleons in ground state (PEP)
  • 8. Standard Model
    • Coulomb Barrier
    • Practical T’s => Plasma
  • 9. Standard Model Known Reaction Rates for He Isotopes ->Gamma Ray branch highly improbable
  • 10. Money Talks
    • Civilian Power Production
      • 50 years
      • € 20 BILLION thus far
      • Another €60- €80 BILLION over next 50 yrs
      • IN E.U., FUSION gets €750million/yr, rest get €850 million
      • No Excess Power thus far
  • 11. Pons-Fleischmann Effect: “Cold Fusion”
  • 12. History Of Cold Fusion
    • Original Premise was faulty, Nernst Eq
      • Applies to equilibrium conditions, “inappropriate” for Dt pressure in Pl
    • Funded by Fleischmann and Pons
      • 5 years
      • $100,000
  • 13. The Other Utah Group: Muon-Catalyzed Fusion
    • Jones et al. was preforming “cold” fusion too
    • Muons fired at frozen block of He isotopes (3K)
    • Massive muon bumps electron, shield coulomb potential
    • Nuclear force kicks in, fusion occurs
    • Release 5.5MeV (cost 6MeV), 100 rxns/muon, dies off
  • 14. MCF:
    • MCF Rate:~10^-24 /sec
    • Theoretical limits: ~10^-64/sec (Koonin,1989), ~10^-23/sec (Lamb,1990),
    • 1-40 OoM disparity!
    • Still much less than the 10^-14/sec that P&F’s excess power would require
  • 15. Standard Model
    • Coulomb Barrier
    • Such T’s => Plasma
  • 16.
    • Feb 23, 1989 : P&F(UU) meet Jones(BYU), decide to simultaneously mail manuscripts on March 24 from Salt Lake City
    • March 13, 1989 : UU files patents
    • March 21, 1989 : UU decide to go public, own departments and Jone’s group don’t know!
    • March 23, 1989 : Press conference held, all hell breaks loose
    Critical Dates:
  • 17. Let the Games Begin!
    • Press conference circumvents PRP
      • “ ‘ SIMPLE EXPERIMENT’ RESULTS IN SUSTAINED N-FUSION AT ROOM TEMPERATURE FOR FIRST TIME ...Break through process has potential to provide inexhaustible source of energy”
    • UU own physicist even didn’t know!
  • 18.  
  • 19. Fusion Fuels Furor
    • Frenzy to replicate
    • Lack of information: data and specifications
      • Pending and future patents
        • 1st draft highly rushed, bypassed PRP
            • 25% errata in 2nd draft
    • Media a major source of info!
  • 20. Money Yells, Hushes
    • MO:
    • 1) Billions in patents
    • 2) Nobel prizes
    • 3) New major research centers for Utah
    • 4) Further economic development in Utah
  • 21. Federal Funding
    • National Cold Fusion Institute
    • -$5 million from Utah set aside
    • -Another $25 million asked of Congress
    • -Info withheld from Feds b/c of patents!
    • DOE panel created to:
    • 1) Review experiments and theory
    • 2) Identify research avenues to be pursued to better understand phenomena
    • 3) Identify best direction for DOE for CF
  • 22. Hand Wavingly Speaking...
    • Huizenga’s “Miracles:”
    • 1) ‘Fusion-rate miracle:’
    • -Theoretical rates of 10^-64/sec 10^-23/sec
    • -MCF rates of 10^-24
    • -CF (extrapolated) rates of 10^-14
  • 23. Hand Wavingly Speaking...
    • 2) ‘Branching ratio miracle:’
    • -In solids, posited to jump to 10^6-10^9
    • [In plasma, gamma-ray branch has probability of 10^-7 ]
  • 24. Hand Wavingly Speaking...
    • 3) ‘Concealed-Nuclear-Products Miracle:’
    • -23.85/5.5 Mev gamma ray taken up by lattice
    • -P&F posited ‘new type of nuclear process’
  • 25.  
  • 26. Frenzy Peaks
    • ‘ YAY’-Camp:
    • -Statistically Significant Positive results (‘one is enough’ mentality)
    • Los Alamos, Stanford, Texas A&M, BARC, BYU,
    • -He3, n, excess heat all separately measured
    • -Large He3/n ratios and ‘sporadicity’ => new physics
  • 27.
    • ‘ NAY’-Camp:
    • -Excess Heat dispro. to n’s dispro. to He3
    • -No commensurate or simultaneous measurements of E.H.,n’s, He4, He3
    • -Irreproducibility, inconsistent measurements
    • -Current model abhors it
    • -Secrecy, went to press before peers
    Frenzy Peaks
  • 28. DOE Panel Concludes
    • 1) No convincing evidence of useful energy source
    • 2) Many disparate claims of E.H. and fusion products imply non-nuclear process
    • 3) Many null results for n’s, few near background, are not persuasive for a new nuclear process (CF).
    • 4) Current model does not allow CF
    • 5) CF runs contrary to all known data, would require new process
  • 29. DOE Panel Recommends:
    • 1) No special funding outside of PRP
    • 2) ‘Sympathetic’ towards modest future funding
    • 3) Research should focus on E.H. measurements
    • 4) Simultaneous measurements are encouraged, commensurate levels are expected for fusion
    • 5) Excess tritium should be investigated
    • 6) Collaborative efforts are highly encouraged to further field
  • 30. Climate Change
  • 31. Climate Change
    • “ As in all areas of science, it was, of course, not possible to state categorically that all the claims for cold fusion had been convincingly either proved or disproved.” - J.R. Huizenga
      • Yet DOE findings signaled end of debate to most
    • No more cross-camp debate
  • 32. Standard Model Known Reaction Rates for He Isotopes ->Gamma Ray branch highly improbable
  • 33. Schwinger’s Heart Break
    • Nobel in ’65 for QED
    • wrote 8 papers on CF
    • Published 2: “Cold Fusion: A Hypothesis.” and Nuclear Energy in an Atomic Lattice, 1”
    • On rejection from Phys. Rev. Letters, left APS
    • “ The pressure for conformity is enormous. I have experienced it in editors’ rejection of submitted papers, based on venomous criticism of anonymous referees. The replacement of impartial reviewing by censorship will be the death of science”
  • 34. Pariah Field
    • Little to no communication b/n CF and rest of community
    • Rarely, if ever, findings published in mainstream journals
    • Left to their own devices
    • Data is less scrutinized to reduce fuel for critics
    • -David Goodstein
  • 35.  
  • 36. Current Theories on LENR, CANR
    • LENR-CANR.org , over 300 theory papers, 1000+ in total.
  • 37. Further Developments
    • P&F went to France, funded by Toyota, £12 million later, stopped in ’98
    • Japan funded ‘hydrogen energy research’ stopped after $20 million (’92-’97)
  • 38.
    • International Conference on Condensed Matter Nuclear Science, created in ’90
    • Several trade magazines created to publish findings (4+)
    Subculture Forms
  • 39. NAVY Restarts Dialogue
    • In 2002, US NAVY revealed their long running CF research: “Thermal and Nuclear Aspects of the Pd/D20 System”
    • 2004 DOE reviewed field again, less negative findings, smaller majority
    • 2006 APS held CF session
    • 2007 ACS held CF session
  • 40. Current Developments
    • 2008 live demonstration in Japan (Osaka University) sparks research in India
    • 2009 ACS held 4-day symposium on ‘New Energy Technology’
    • US NAVY SPAWAR found neutrons with CF cell using CR-39
    • SRI
    • SUPERWAVE Fusion (Energetics Technologies LLC)
  • 41.  
  • 42. Summery of Evidence
    • -Statistically significant excess heat
    • -Neutron/He3 ratio very large
    • -Neutron and He3 decoupled from heat
    • =>No deadly radiation
    • -Sporaticity
    • -Mechanism Unknown
    • -
  • 43. Conclusions
    • Faulty premise serendipitously lead to novel results
    • Patent-and-Prestige dreams lead to secrecy and greed
    • Abandonment of PRP, scientific method
      • BAD SCIENCE: ‘Pathological Science’ and ‘Pathological Skepticism’ created polarization
    • New physics waiting for exploration
    • Possible commercialization
  • 44. Done. Thank You!