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We need proof! - Talk at Agile Estonia's Agile Saturday

We need proof! - Talk at Agile Estonia's Agile Saturday



This is a call to action for all Agilists out there. It is not enough to see and experience the success of Agile. For our industry to truly evolve we need to start publishing data, figures, proof that ...

This is a call to action for all Agilists out there. It is not enough to see and experience the success of Agile. For our industry to truly evolve we need to start publishing data, figures, proof that it is indeed a better approach.
Check out the companion blog post here: http://softwaredevelopmenttoday.blogspot.com/2010/02/we-need-proof-for-better-understanding.html



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  • You can prove which is saltier. You can make decisions based on which is saltier (like which one you should have after dinner, or which one you should have after a day of hard work). Salt has properties that matter to us, so asking which is saltier is a much more useful question.
  • This experiment was done in 1879, it was not until 1905 that Einstein would come up with the Special Relativity Theory => the moral: this only happened because Michelson and Morley’s experiment failed!
  • Just like the F16, democracy has in itself the ingredients for fast change and for long term stability. – isn’t that what all businesses are looking for?Instability and stability. Change and status quo. How can our organizations today navigate this seemingly opposed principles? Where is our organizations’ “electronic-hydraulic stability augmentation system”?
  • 3496880431_e7c5910859_b: http://www.flickr.com/photos/8867029@N07/611780383_bad69da781_o: http://www.flickr.com/photos/_at/2622099393_8199976c15_b: http://www.flickr.com/photos/quenerapu/1296530240_d56d4f69e4: http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby/1183485780_61c9fb3ba5_o: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotopakismo/2435823037_982e775726_o: http://www.flickr.com/photos/hinkelstone/2223726960_cc91af1726_b: http://www.flickr.com/photos/swamibu/2189435836_2d8d21e9db_b: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cdevers/2534246751_8e01e3d415_b: http://www.flickr.com/photos/jamesbooth/2714816217_30af6ba139_b: http://www.flickr.com/photos/dungodung/3260650860_fb557535dd_o: http://www.flickr.com/photos/puppydogbites/3726484920_67c38c5725_b: http://www.flickr.com/photos/talios/

We need proof! - Talk at Agile Estonia's Agile Saturday We need proof! - Talk at Agile Estonia's Agile Saturday Presentation Transcript

  • We need proof!
    - Vasco Duarte @ AgileSaturday by Agile Estonia
  • Vasco Duarte
  • Vasco
  • Disclaimer
    I’m experienced, but that means:
    I understand your questions
    I know all the answers!
  • Which is better?
    Wrong question!
    Try asking: “which is saltier?”
  • You actually should know what you are doing…
  • A scientific method consists of the collection of data through observation and experimentation, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses.
  • In 1879, Albert Michelson and Edward Morley made a very precise measurement to determine at what speed the Earth is moving relative to the ether. If the Earth is moving through the ether, they reasoned, the speed of light should be slightly different when hitting the Earth head-on than when hitting the Earth perpendicularly. To their surprise, the speed of light was the same in both directions.
  • 1905 -> E = mc2
    ( Because the Michelson-Morley “failed” experiment )
  • Agile Software Development
    Who is flying our plane?
  • I can make you fly!
  • Are we betting our industry on a bunch of stories?
  • An iteration's worth of data is worth months of speculation.
    --Kent Beck
  • “It worked for me”
    No statistical significance!
  • Show me the numbers!
  • Reality bites…
    One iteration shortened
    The quality debt, or ...
    One iteration added.
    What really happened, 25% schedule delay
    How ”what we though will happen” changed with time…
    What we thought would happen when we started
  • Project schedule accuracy statistics before Agile
    Comparison of 17 projects ending between 2001 and 2003. (Average: 62%)
  • Agile Software development is a risk management strategy
    Risk Management becomes a daily task
    Note: the curve signifies the potential impact of ”fit to market” risks over time. (The risk of ”what”)
  • Quality focus early on in Agile Projects
  • Iteration x
    What progress trend should be
    What progress trend should be
    Start of pilot/beta
    Start of pilot/beta
    Evolution of velocity
    Release date
  • Iteration x + 1
  • The Velocity Bet
    Their history stated the following velocity evolution in the last 3 sprints: 1 8 8
    They were learning the product and area in the first few sprints, which allowed for a ”getting-up-to-speed” thought process. Additionally they had committed to 15 items in the Sprint planning meeting.
    The product Owner stated that the R&D team would start doing 15 items per sprint (which would help them meet the goal of releasing the pilot and the release on time.)
    I said a different number. What would you say?
    What was the result after the sprint?
  • Iteration x + 2
    They did 10 items. A 20% increase in velocity.
  • Let’s have a real conversation about what works or does not work based on Documented Experiments!
    Go to
    and share your data with the community!
  • Currently an Agile Coach in Nokia, Vasco Duarte is an experienced product and project manager, having worked in the software industry since 1997. Vasco has also been an Agile practitioner since 2004, he is one of the leaders and a catalyst in the adoption of Agile methods and an Agile culture at Nokia and previously at F-Secure.
    Vasco's humble contributions to the improvement of the software development profession can be read in his blog: http://softwaredevelopmenttoday.blogspot.com.
    You can follow Vasco on twitter: @duarte_vasco
    Foto credits: Flickr users
    mr.beaver @ flickrhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/mr_beaver/3486761520/
    sebastianmary @ flickrhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/giovannijl-s_photohut/846212196/
    tombothetominator @ flickrhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/tombothetominator/2469477531/
    adampniak @ flickrhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/adampniak/2848254838/
    zehawk @ flickrhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/lastgunslinger/2224189304/