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Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
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Scenario Planning

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Scenario Planning is a critical part of the strategy development process. For the full Scenario Planning framework, go here: …

Scenario Planning is a critical part of the strategy development process. For the full Scenario Planning framework, go here:
http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/67_Scenario-Planning.php

For additional business frameworks, check out this page:
http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/frameworks/

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  • 93 09/15/98 11 25
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    • 1. PowerPoint Diagram Pack Scenario Planning Scenario Planning is an integral part of the Strategic Planning Process. This document describes a robust 9-phase process for proper scenario planning analysis and shows how to integrate it into a Scenario Planning Workshop environment. <ul><li>Check out our site for all your PowerPoint needs! </li></ul><ul><li>http://learnppt.com – Find our ebook on creating effective and professional presentations. Covers basic to advanced concepts, including storyboarding, diagramming, and the Consulting Presentation Framework. </li></ul><ul><li>http://learnppt.com/powerpoint -- Shop our catalog of Diagram Packs. We try to add more Packs monthly. All of our diagrams are professionally designed by ex-management consultants from top firms. </li></ul>Axes of Uncertainty Axes of Uncertainty Axes of Uncertainty Axes of Uncertainty Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D
    • 2. Contents <ul><li>Overview 4 </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario Planning Process 6 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Process Overview 7 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>9 Phases 8 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Scenario Planning Workshop 21 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Facilitation Tips 22 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Suggested Layouts 24 </li></ul></ul>
    • 3. The Industry Supply Curve is a graphic representation of the Law of Supply—and provides insight into competitive pricing dynamics Scenario Planning Overview Scenario Planning—also called Scenario Thinking or Scenario Analysis—is a method used in the strategic planning process to help businesses make flexible long-term plans. This document describes a 9-phase process for Scenario Planning, and shows how to apply this process to a workshop environment. Many organizations conduct off-site Scenario Planning Workshops as part their annual strategy development process. THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ Axes of Uncertainty Axes of Uncertainty Axes of Uncertainty Axes of Uncertainty Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D
    • 4. Phase 5 : Generate plausible combinations of outcomes Phase 5 – Overview EXECUTION METHODOLOGIES Don’t try to over-think the process of generate every possible outcome—use sound judgment to evaluate whether the scenarios selected represent the broad range of possible future states TIP THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ <ul><li>Create strawman models for each scenario by selecting internally consistent combinations of outcomes for critical uncertainties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Check for and discuss possible conflicts among outcomes selected </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Where the most important critical uncertainties are evident, make sure to include all identified outcomes in the selected scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Target to create around 4 scenarios— don’t create too many scenarios! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure the scenarios you have created are distinctly different </li></ul></ul>KEY ACTIVITIES Breakout groups  Facilitated group discussion  Describe scenarios Checked for robustness Outline scenarios Generate outcome combinations Determine outcomes Rank critical uncertainties Identify axes of uncertainties Define scope of scenarios
    • 5. Use the top 2 uncertainties to create a scenario map for the initial 4 scenarios to work on Phase 5 – Scenario Map Example Harsh Regulatory Environment Liberal Regulatory Environment Brand Premium Erodes Brand Premium Maintains Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D <ul><li>In this example, the top 2 uncertainties selected are “Regulatory Environment” and “Brand Premium” </li></ul><ul><li>The underlying assumption in this exercise is that by defining the extreme corners of any given environment, one does explore the correlation among all relevant uncertainties—this implies that reality will be somewhere in the middle </li></ul><ul><li>Defining scenarios is not meant to describe the most likely case—it purely explores uncertainty correlation and leads to potential future states to better understand associated risks with any path forward </li></ul>THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ Describe scenarios Checked for robustness Outline scenarios Generate outcome combinations Determine outcomes Rank critical uncertainties Identify axes of uncertainties Define scope of scenarios
    • 6. Use the top 2 uncertainties to create a scenario map for the initial 4 scenarios to work on Phase 5 – Scenario Map Example 2 PRIMARY AXES OF UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING AXES OF UNCERTAINTIES These values defined by the Scenario Map (from previous slide) THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Maintains Erodes Maintains Erodes Brand premium Liberal Liberal Harsh Harsh Regulatory environment … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … High High Low High Threat of digitization Yes No Yes Yes Technology breakthrough Drops Increase Drops Increases Price of oil Describe scenarios Checked for robustness Outline scenarios Generate outcome combinations Determine outcomes Rank critical uncertainties Identify axes of uncertainties Define scope of scenarios
    • 7. Phase 6 : Outline the emerging scenarios Phase 6 – Overview EXECUTION METHODOLOGIES Pick a short, catchy label THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ <ul><li>Develop a detailed qualitative description of future state envisaged under each scenario </li></ul><ul><li>Complete the outcome matrix for other critical uncertainties </li></ul><ul><li>Describe the outcomes of critical uncertainties for each scenario in headlines </li></ul><ul><li>Name the scenario </li></ul>KEY ACTIVITIES Breakout groups  Facilitated group discussion  Describe scenarios Checked for robustness Outline scenarios Generate outcome combinations Determine outcomes Rank critical uncertainties Identify axes of uncertainties Define scope of scenarios
    • 8. Phase 7 : Check scenarios for robustness Phase 7 – Overview EXECUTION METHODOLOGIES THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ <ul><li>Test the stability of the end state described </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will stakeholders in the industry intervene to prevent this end state from occurring? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test the relevance of the scenarios described </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Do the outcomes relate to the decisions facing the business? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test the internal consistency of the scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What contradictions do the scenarios contain? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test whether the scenarios are distinct and unique </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Try to avoid developing scenarios that are variations of the same theme </li></ul></ul>KEY ACTIVITIES Validation with external industry reports  Breakout group presentations  Facilitated group discussion  Describe scenarios Checked for robustness Outline scenarios Generate outcome combinations Determine outcomes Rank critical uncertainties Identify axes of uncertainties Define scope of scenarios
    • 9. Phase 8 : Create detailed scenario descriptions Phase 8 – Overview EXECUTION METHODOLOGIES <ul><li>Economic parameters are estimates of what the world would be like if a scenario became a reality, in terms of key macro-economic statistics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>e.g. population size, GDP, exchange rates, inflation </li></ul></ul>Leading indicators inform us on when a particular future state is starting to become a reality A leading contra-indicator inform us when a particular scenario be discounted from our future strategies and plans THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ <ul><li>Develop a detailed storyline for each scenario </li></ul><ul><li>Highlight the high-level implications for strategy under each scenario </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategies include: strategies for leadership, competitive strategies for survival </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Winners and losers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Describe the indicative key economic parameters conceived under each future state </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the leading indicators and leading contra-indicators that will signal whether this future is starting to emerge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it as important to identify future stats that can be eliminated from strategy development, as it is to identify the prevailing state </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Identify the competitive competencies that would be required </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Includes key strategic business partnerships </li></ul></ul>KEY ACTIVITIES Validation groups  Breakout groups  Facilitated group discussion  Describe scenarios Checked for robustness Outline scenarios Generate outcome combinations Determine outcomes Rank critical uncertainties Identify axes of uncertainties Define scope of scenarios
    • 10. It is important to document all leading (contra-)indicators and economic parameters Phase 8 – Key Indicators The tracking and monitoring of these indicators will help determine any strategic changes in the future. THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/ Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D <ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>KEY CONTRA-INDICATORS <ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>KEY INDICATORS Describe scenarios Checked for robustness Outline scenarios Generate outcome combinations Determine outcomes Rank critical uncertainties Identify axes of uncertainties Define scope of scenarios
    • 11. Successful scenario planning workshops are usually conducted offsite over a 2- or 3-day period with involvement beyond just top management Scenario Planning Workshop – Facilitation Tips <ul><li>Allow plenty of time for the group to bond and for the discussions provoked by the scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Go offsite </li></ul><ul><li>Be sure to involve the top team … </li></ul><ul><li>… but also consider including other “expert” resources </li></ul><ul><li>Each breakout group exercise can open up wide ranging debate around deep questions which will affect the future of the business </li></ul><ul><li>Schedule evening work to create the opportunity for an open-ended discussion </li></ul><ul><li>It is difficult to engage senior management’s captive attention if they are accessible to deal with current business “crises” </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t allow the management to delegate the exercise—they oftentimes won’t buy in to scenarios unless they have been through the learning involved in exploring the future </li></ul><ul><li>Involve people from further down the organization—especially people capable of creative, out-of-the-box thinking about the future of the industry </li></ul><ul><li>Invite academics, industry experts, regulators, and even partners (e.g. suppliers, alliance) to enrich the breadth of the discussion </li></ul>THIS IS A PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/
    • 12. END OF PARTIAL PREVIEW You can preview the full PowerPoint document and download it at http://learnppt.com/powerpoint/
    • 13. Browse our catalog of PowerPoint Diagram Packs http://learnppt.com/powerpoint Join our mailing list and receive the Basic Toolkit for free ! http://learnppt.com/mailinglist Read our eBook – How to Become a PowerPoint Guru http://learnppt.com/

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