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Transportation Fuels & Green House Gas Emissions Reduction
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Transportation Fuels & Green House Gas Emissions Reduction

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  • 1. Transportation fuels  and GHG emissions reduction Steven J. Taff Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota
  • 2. Goal: Reduce GHG from transportation • Drive less – tax on gas, miles, or GHG (miles) • Better cars – CAFE  (miles/gallon) • Cleaner cars – GreenCar (GHG/mile) • Cleaner fuel – RFS, LCFS (GHG/gallon) 2
  • 3. Scoring and Standards • None can be easily or directly measureed • All need models and averaging and broad  standards 3
  • 4. Scoring  • What included (field, plant, car, iLUC) • Where measured (local…world) • What number (LCA or direct) • What model (GREET, BESS, MnGREET?) 4
  • 5. population prosperity policy Indirect  land use  CROP  change? • PRICE CROP  DEMAND Increase  Change land  management   use intensity Environment  CROP  weather change SUPPLY 5
  • 6. Scoring  matters 6
  • 7. Policy linkages • Independent / Summable • Complementary / Synergistic • Conflicting / Redundant 7
  • 8. MGA policy linkages model • This is a “what‐if” model, not a “what‐should‐ we‐do” model • Emphasis on how policies might change  activities • Focus on links among policy actions, not on  implication of stand‐alone actions 8
  • 9. How policies influence outcomes economy policy DECISIONS outcomes parameters 9
  • 10. • People/Firms do the best they can with what  they’ve got • People/Firms choose lowest‐cost activity that is  financially, legally, and technically feasible. • Government sets the stage so that people/firms,  in doing what’s best for themselves, do what’s  best for Society. 10
  • 11. Policies  Electricity Energy, Emissions, and  Transportation Expenditures— and Jobs Building  efficiency   11
  • 12. GHG accounting Sequestration  Electricity reduction Transportation Total GHG  emissions Buildings 12
  • 13. Life cycle accounting Direct  (combustion) Production  facility Supplies and  Total Hauling manufacturing Farm/Wellfield Indirect landuse change 13
  • 14. Policies • Convince people to do something good • Require people to do something good • Pay people to do something good • Make people pay to do something bad 14
  • 15. Today: When Policies Collide  • Stricter CAFE standard • GHG tax 15
  • 16. CAFE Standard CAFE  fuel use  standard  by car  (MPG) (MPG) GHG  from  vehicles Cost to  Annual  meet CAFE  average fuel  ($/Vehicle) cost per car Fuel use  (BTU) Other Vehicle  Costs Car  choice 16
  • 17. GHG tax Energy  intensity  (BTU/ton) GHG Tax Carbon  ($/ton GHG) intensity  (GHG/BTU) Total cost  ($/BTU) Technical  costs  ($/BTU) GHG  Energy  emissions portfolio  Demand  (BTU) for energy  (BTU) 17
  • 18. • Let’s go to the MGA model 18
  • 19. Steven J. Taff Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota 612.625.3103 sjtaff@umn.edu 19
  • 20. 20