How We Used Data to Win the Presidential Election by Dan Siroker

How We Used Data to Win the Presidential Election Dan Siroker Email me: Follow me: dan@optimizely.com @dsiroker

Barack Obama

Barack Obama David Plouffe

Barack Obama David Plouffe Correspondence Field Policy Operations ... Communications New Media Paid Media Finance

Barack Obama David Plouffe Correspondence Field Policy Operations ... Communications New Media Paid Media Finance Marketing Email Blog Analytics Design Video Organizing

Results

Popular Vote Electoral Vote Other (1%) 1,865,617 McCain 173 McCain (46%) Obama (53%) 59,934,814 69,456,897 Obama 365 Source: Federal Election Commission

McCain Obama 3 100 150 2.4 80 120 1.8 60 90 Millions 1.2 40 60 0.6 20 30 0 0 0 Facebook Friends YouTube Video Views Unique Website Visitors Source: Facebook,YouTube, and Google Trends

Unique Website Visitors Source: Google Trends

Money Raised PRIMARY GENERAL OBAMA JANUARY JANUARY JANUARY ‘07 ‘08 CLINTON McCAIN ‘09 A EL N N EC O TI U N O C N EM D AY EN T Source: Stephen Geer

Money Raised McCain $201 million Obama $656 million Note: Does not include federal funds Source: Federal Election Commission

Money Raised Obama (Ofﬂine) McCain $156 million $201 million Obama (Online) $500 million Note: Does not include federal funds Source: Washington Post and Federal Election Commission

Lessons Learned

Lesson #1: Deﬁne success.

Chuck Kennedy-Pool/Getty Images

Lesson #1: Deﬁne success.

Lesson #1: Deﬁne success .

Lesson #1: Deﬁne quantiﬁable success metrics.

Website Email signup Raise money

click thru rate Website sign up rate Email signup $ per recipient Raise money

click thru # of clicks rate = # of impressions Website sign up # of signups rate = # of pageviews Email signup $ per $ amount raised recipient = # of recipients Raise money

Lesson #1: Deﬁne quantiﬁable success metrics.

Lesson #2: Question assumptions.

Media Button

Splash page experiment Variations: Button: Media: 1. Sign Up 1. Get Involved Image 2. Learn More 2. Family Image 3. Join Us Now 3. Change Image 4. Sign Up Now 4. Barack’s Video 5. Springﬁeld Video 6. Sam’s Video

Button: “Sign Up”

Button: “Learn More”

Button: “Join Us Now”

Button: “Sign Up Now”

Media: “Get Involved”

Media: “Family”

Media: “Change”

Media: “Barack’s Video”

Media: “Springﬁeld Video”

Media: “Sam’s Video”

Splash page experiment results

Splash page experiment results Email Volunteers Amount Raised Subscriptions Original: 7,120,000 712,000 $143,000,000 +40.6% +2,880,000 +288,000 +$57,000,000 New: 10,000,000 1,000,000 $200,000,000

Lesson #2: Question assumptions.

Lesson #3: Divide and conquer.

Donation button experiment Variations

Donation button experiment results Never Signed Up, Previously Variations Signed Up Never Donated Donated 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% +2.3% +27.8% +16.3% -27.8% N/A N/A +15.2% -24.6% +11.9% +8.5% +2.9% +18.4%

Lesson #3: Divide and conquer.

Lesson #4: Take advantage of circumstances.

Courtesy: Bradley Portnoy Taken: August 27th, 2008 9:42PM

Lesson #4: Take advantage of circumstances.

Lesson #5: Start today.

Timeline 1/17 evening: Approached by Clinton Foundation 1/18 evening: Experiment #1 (8 variations) 1/19 morning: Experiment #2 (8 variations) 1/19 evening: Experiment #3 (7 variations) 1/20 morning: Experiment #4 (2 variations)

#1: Original Page

#2: One column with image

#3: Two columns with image

#4: “Support Haiti” button

#5 Hide “veriﬁed by” icon

#6 Increase label font size

#7 Hide title & phone number ﬁelds

#8 Pre-select $250

Results Variation $ per pageview Improvement Original $51.30 0.00% One column with image $50.63 -1.31% Two columns with image $55.42 +8.03% “Support Haiti” button $59.38 +15.75% Hide “veriﬁed by” icon $48.50 -5.44% Increase label font size $52.50 +2.35% Hide title & phone ﬁelds $56.92 +10.97% Pre-select $250 N/A N/A

Impact Total improvement: +10.2% Total additional raised (1/20 - 2/23): $1,022,571

Lesson #5: Start today.

Lessons Learned 1. Deﬁne quantiﬁable success metrics. 2. Question assumptions. 3. Divide and conquer. 4. Take advantage of circumstances. 5. Start today.

Email me: Follow me: dan@optimizely.com @dsiroker

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How We Used Data to Win the Presidential Election by Dan Siroker

by Dan Siroker on Feb 26, 2010

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How We Used Data to Win the Presidential Election by Dan Siroker — Presentation Transcript