Produced and issued by: ABN AMRO Bank NV+
Equity | Europe


                  24 July 2009




                           ...
Single-chip 3G: a cause for concern

                               Our channel checks indicate that Samsung will be the f...
phones in the world to use Infineon’s single-chip EDGE. In fact, we estimate that LG has already
                         ...
The Euro Semis haven't got a competitive product yet
                               Although the European Semis have done ...
Recommendation structure
Absolute performance, short term (trading) recommendation: A Trading Buy recommendation implies u...
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 Copyright 2009 ABN AMRO Bank N.V. and affiliated companies ("ABN AMRO"). All rights reserved.
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Single Chip 3 G Note

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Single Chip 3 G Note

  1. 1. Produced and issued by: ABN AMRO Bank NV+ Equity | Europe 24 July 2009 Tech Hardware & Equip Underweight Single-chip 3G coming in 3Q09F Our channel checks indicate that Samsung will be the first company in the world to use QCOM's single-chip 3G/HSPA solution, doing so as early as 3Q09F. This is an important development for the handset and wireless chip industries, in our view. We discuss the implications of our finding in this note. Key recommendations & forecasts Reuters Year end Recom Price Target EPS PE price 1fcst 1fcst Nokia NOK1V.HE Dec 2009 Buy €9.43 €12.50 0.57 16.60 Ericsson ERICb.ST Dec 2009 Hold SKr77.50 SKr65.00 4.50 17.20 ARM ARM.L Dec 2009 Hold 1.30 1.03 0.05 26.20 CSR CSR.L Dec 2009 Buy 3.93 3.30 -0.03 n/a Infineon IFXGn.DE Sep 2009 Hold €2.98 €3.40 -0.28 n/a ST STM.PA Dec 2009 Hold €5.44 €4.55 -0.57 n/a Wolfson WLF.L Dec 2009 Hold 1.13 1.10 0.03 62.10 Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts Nokia remains behind the Korean OEMs in terms of single-chip solutions Given our finding today, we believe that Samsung is substantially ahead of Nokia, LG and Sony Ericsson in launching lower ASP 3G/HSPA feature phones. In fact, given that Infineon, ST-Ericsson and Broadcom have no single-chip 3G on their roadmaps, we doubt that Nokia and Sony Ericsson will be able to match Samsung in this segment any time soon. We estimate that by switching to a single-chip 3G, a phone OEM would typically shave about US$5 of their BOM ie about 5% of a mid-range feature phone’s cost. The Euro Semis haven't got a competitive product yet Although the European Semis have done really well recently in terms of market share gains in 3G (ST-Ericsson at Samsung and Infineon at LG) at the expense of Qualcomm, neither of them have a single-chip 3G/HSPA product on their roadmap . We believe that they are unlikely to offer a competitive product for at least 18 months. This may lead to some market- share reversal in the coming year, particularly for ST-Ericsson, which has garnered about 20% of Samsung's 3G business this year, mostly at the expense of Qualcomm. At LG, we believe that Infineon and ST-Ericsson may be less at risk, simply because LG is clearly Analysts diversifying away from Qualcomm. This may, however, lead to some pricing pressure for ST- Ericsson and Infineon given their lack of competitive product. Didier Scemama +44 20 7678 0772 didier.scemama@rbs.com More pricing pressure coming for ST-Ericsson, in our view Alexandre Faure For Nokia, we believe the most natural response will be to ask for additional rebates to its +44 20 7678 7231 alexandre.faure@rbs.com wireless semiconductor suppliers (TXN, STM, Broadcom mostly). This may constitute another major challenge for ST-Ericsson's gross margin in the coming quarters (as we saw Marketing analyst already in 2Q09). For Infineon, although we believe that the company has got a very strong Paraag Amin, CFA backlog of design wins at LG and, to a lesser degree, at Samsung, we are becoming slightly +44 20 7678 7513 more cautious on the medium-term (next 12-18 months) margin expansion potential of this paraag.amin@rbs.com business. 250 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 4AA, United Kingdom Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. + http://www.abnamroresearch.com ABN AMRO group companies are subsidiary undertakings of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc.
  2. 2. Single-chip 3G: a cause for concern Our channel checks indicate that Samsung will be the first company in the world to use Qualcomm's single-chip 3G/HSPA solution. This could be a game changer in terms of ASPs and margins, in our view. First 3G phone in the world to use a single-chip architecture identified We believe that the recently announced Samsung SGH-T559 (to be sold by T-Mobile US under the name Samsung Comeback), a QWERTY messaging device, will be based on Qualcomm's QSC6270 chip, the first single-chip 3G solution in the market. This is an important development for the handset and wireless chip industries, in our view. Chart 1 : Samsung Comeback Chart 2 : Nokia 7020 Chart 3 : LG KS360/LG Neon Source: Samsung Source: Nokia Source: LG Electronics Nokia remains behind the Korean OEMs in terms of single-chip solutions Nokia is already behind LG and Samsung in ramping up single-chip EDGE in its mid-to-low end models. In 3Q09, it is to deploy Broadcom's single-chip EDGE in some models, the first of them being the Nokia 7020. LG started using Infineon's single-chip EDGE more than a year ago and Samsung started in 2Q09. Sony Ericsson is very far behind, having no phone in the market with a single chip EDGE. Samsung, already a big user of ST-Ericsson's single chip GPRS solution for its low-end phones, is currently ramping Broadcom's single-chip EDGE and most likely Infineon's equivalent solution in 2H09F. Chart 4 : Traditional handset (2G) unit market share in Western Europe 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 Nokia Samsung LG Motorola Sony Ericsson Vodafone All others Source: IDC We believe that the Korean handset OEMs more aggressive use of single-chip EDGE solutions is one of the reasons for their quicker time to market than Nokia and their thinner, slicker form factor. For instance, LG’s highly successful KS360 and GT365/Neon messaging device was one the first Tech Hardware & Equip | Industry Dynamics | 24 July 2009 2
  3. 3. phones in the world to use Infineon’s single-chip EDGE. In fact, we estimate that LG has already transitioned to single-chip EDGE architecture the vast majority of its mid-range phones (a notable exception being the LG Cookie, which used a multichip EDGE platform from Infineon). Interestingly, LG’s unit share of the 2G traditional handset market in western Europe increased from 5% in 1Q08 to 13% in 1Q09, as shown in chart 1. Similarly, Samsung recently introduced a single-chip EDGE architecture (from Broadcom) in its portfolio, so far deployed in only one model, the Samsung Star (also called Samsung Tocco Lite), a low priced (£99 on pre-paid) touchscreen device that competes head-to-head with the LG Cookie. Samsung recently commented it would ship about 10m units of this device. While all other EDGE models have continued to be designed on ST-Ericsson’s multichip EDGE platform, Samsung has transitioned almost all its GPRS models to a single-chip architecture from ST-Ericsson. Given our finding today, we believe that Samsung is therefore substantially ahead of Nokia, LG and Sony Ericsson in launching lower ASP 3G/HSPA feature phones. In fact, given that Infineon, ST-Ericsson and Broadcom have no single-chip 3G (that works) on their roadmaps, we doubt that any of these players will be able to match Samsung in this segment any time soon. Obviously, one has to remember that Samsung has only deployed this chip in one phone at the moment, which is rather limited given their extensive portfolio (they have 46 3G models at present). However, we estimate that by switching to a single-chip 3G, a phone OEM would typically shave about US$5 of its BOM, ie, about 5% of a mid-range feature phone (see Table 1). Table 1 : Bill-of-materials (BOM) estimate of the Nokia 6300 and Nokia 5800 (HSDPA) Model 6300 US$ 5800 US$ Chg Baseband TXN 4.5 TXN 9.0 100% PMU STM 1.0 STM 1.6 60% ABB STM 2.0 STM 2.8 40% RF STM 3.0 STM 3.0 0% PA RFMD 1.0 RFMD 2.5 150% Memory Samsung 2.0 Samsung 1.0 -50% Apps processor - 0.0 in BB 0.0 n.m. Imaging DSP STM 3.0 in BB 0.0 -100% Camera sensor STM 4.0 ?? 3.0 -25% Bluetooth CSR 1.5 BRCM 2.2 47% FM radio NXP 1.0 in BT 0.0 -100% WiFi - 0.0 MRVL 3.0 n.m. GPS - 0.0 TXN 2.8 n.m. Accelerometer - 0.0 STM 1.2 n.m. Touchscreen controller - 0.0 ?? 2.5 n.m. External components - 4.0 - 1.0 -75% Metallic shielding - 6.0 - 3.5 -42% Display incl touchscreen - 10.0 - 14.0 40% Casing - 7.0 - 5.0 -29% PCB - 4.0 - 3.0 -25% Battery - 10.0 - 8.5 -15% Antenna - 1.0 - 0.8 -20% IPR, warranty, transport - 18.8 - 20.0 6% Labour costs and overheads - 11.0 - 12.0 9% Total US$ 94.8 102.4 8% Total € 65.4 73.1 12% VAT 50.0 55.8 Total cost in € 115.4 128.9 12% Gross margin 54% 54% ASP at launch (€) 250 279 Source: ABN AMRO Tech Hardware & Equip | Industry Dynamics | 24 July 2009 3
  4. 4. The Euro Semis haven't got a competitive product yet Although the European Semis have done really well recently in terms of market share gains in 3G (ST-Ericsson at Samsung, in particular, and Infineon at LG) at the expense of Qualcomm, neither of them has a single-chip 3G/HSPA product on the market. We believe that they are unlikely to offer a competitive product for at least 18 months. Even if though Qualcomm's single-chip solution is in fact a three-chip solution combined into one package, we believe it still offers lower costs than competing solutions. This may lead to some market share reversal in the coming year, particularly for ST-Ericsson, which has garnered about 20% of Samsung's 3G business this year, mostly at the expense of Qualcomm (75% share) but also at the expense of Infineon (5% now, down from 10% last year). At LG, we believe that Infineon and ST-Ericsson may be less at risk, simply because LG is clearly diversifying away from Qualcomm. This may, however, lead to some pricing pressure for ST-Ericsson and Infineon given their lack of competitive product. More pricing pressure ahead, in our view Although a technical argument that many will disregard, we believe our channel checks have revealed a real issue for Nokia, Sony Ericsson and the Euro Semis in terms of pricing over the course of the next 12-18 months (as this Qualcomm chip proliferates). It is so far unclear how well this chip performs and how much it will be used by Samsung. However, this is a new negative element to take into account in the competitive analysis of the handset and wireless semis industries. For Nokia, we believe the most natural response will be to ask for additional rebates to its wireless semiconductor suppliers (TXN, STM, Broadcom mostly). This may constitute another major challenge for ST-Ericsson's gross margin in the coming quarters (as we saw already in 2Q09). For Infineon, although we believe that the company has got a very strong backlog of design wins at LG and to a lesser degree Samsung, we are becoming slightly more cautious on the medium term (next 12-18 months) margin expansion potential of this business. Tech Hardware & Equip | Industry Dynamics | 24 July 2009 4
  5. 5. Recommendation structure Absolute performance, short term (trading) recommendation: A Trading Buy recommendation implies upside of 5% or more and a Trading Sell indicates downside of 5% or more. The trading recommendation time horizon is 0-60 days. For Australian coverage, a Trading Buy recommendation implies upside of 5% or more from the suggested entry price range, and a Trading Sell recommendation implies downside of 5% or more from the suggested entry price range. The trading recommendation time horizon is 0-60 days. Absolute performance, long term (fundamental) recommendation: The recommendation is based on implied upside/downside for the stock from the target price. A Buy/Sell implies upside/downside of 10% or more and a Hold less than 10%. For UK Small/Mid-Cap Analysis a Buy/Sell implies upside/downside of 10% or more, an Add/Reduce 5-10% and a Hold less than 5%. For UK-based Investment Funds research the recommendation structure is not based on upside/downside to the target price. Rather it is the subjective view of the analyst based on an assessment of the resources and track record of the fund management company. For listed property trusts (LPT) or real estate investment trusts (REIT) the recommendation is based upon the target price plus the dividend yield, ie total return. Performance parameters and horizon: Given the volatility of share prices and our pre-disposition not to change recommendations frequently, these performance parameters should be interpreted flexibly. Performance in this context only reflects capital appreciation and the horizon is 12 months. Sector relative to market: The sector view relative to the market is the responsibility of the strategy team. Overweight/Underweight implies upside/downside of 10% or more and Neutral implies less than 10% upside/downside. Target price: The target price is the level the stock should currently trade at if the market were to accept the analyst's view of the stock and if the necessary catalysts were in place to effect this change in perception within the performance horizon. In this way, therefore, the target price abstracts from the need to take a view on the market or sector. If it is felt that the catalysts are not fully in place to effect a re-rating of the stock to its warranted value, the target price will differ from 'fair' value. Distribution of recommendations The tables below show the distribution of ABN AMRO's recommendations (both long term and trading). The first column displays the distribution of recommendations globally and the second column shows the distribution for the region. Numbers in brackets show the percentage for each category where ABN AMRO has an investment banking relationship. Long Term recommendations (as at 24 Jul 2009) Trading recommendations (as at 24 Jul 2009) Global total (IB%) Europe total (IB%) Global total (IB%) Europe total (IB%) Buy 487 (6) 163 (17) Trading Buy 3 (0) 0 (0) Add 0 (0) 0 (0) Hold 389 (3) 161 (5) Reduce 1 (0) 1 (0) Sell 178 (0) 63 (0) Trading Sell 3 (0) 0 (0) Total (IB%) 1055 (4) 388 (9) Total (IB%) 6 (0) 0 (0) Source: ABN AMRO Source: ABN AMRO Valuation and risks to target price ARM (RIC: ARM.L, Rec: Hold, CP: £1.30, TP: £1.03): The main upside risks to our DCF-based target price are: 1) significant market share gains, 2) higher-than-expected demand for 3G phones and smartphones and 3) a lower-than-expected GBP/USD exchange rate. Downside risks include: 1) a higher-than-expected GBP/USD exchange rate, 2) slower-than-expected demand recovery, 3) increased inventories in the supply chain and 4) increased competition from Intel in smartphones. CSR (RIC: CSR.L, Rec: Buy, CP: £3.93, TP: £3.30): The key downside risks to our rating and DCF-based target price are: 1) ASP pressures exceeding 15-20% due to increased competition, 2) lower-than-expected Bluetooth attach rates and 3) increased competition leading to a faster-than-expected decline in market shares. Infineon (RIC: IFXGn.DE, Rec: Hold, CP: €2.98, TP: €3.40): Downside risks to our DCF-based TP are: 1) a slower-than-expected recovery in key end markets, 2) a loss of market share at (a) key customer(s) and 3) increase of the EUR/USD. Upside risks: 1) faster recovery in the automotive and wireless end markets, 2) stronger-than-expected market share gains and 3) a decline of the EUR/USD. STMicroelectronics (RIC: STM.PA, Rec: Hold, CP: €5.44, TP: €4.55): The main upside risks to our DCF-based price target are: 1) earlier- and better-than-expected benefits from the restructuring programme, 2) a lower €/US$ exchange rate and 3) new design wins. Key downside risks include: 1) further market share loss of key handset customers (Sony Ericsson and Nokia particularly), 2) industry re-stocking occurring too quickly and leading to a double dip in 2010 and 3) a substantial re-appreciation of the €/US$. Wolfson Microelectronics (RIC: WLF.L, Rec: Hold, CP: £1.13, TP: £1.10): Key downside risks to our DCF-based target are: 1) loss of market share in stereo audio DAC to TI, Cirrus and AKM in the portable audio segment; 2) inventory build-up in key end markets; 3) increased pricing pressure in the cellphone space due to lower-than-expected demand for multi- media models; and 4) a delay in the ramp-up of new products such as ISP. Upside risks: 1) design wins at Nokia, Motorola or Sony Ericsson; 2) a drop in the GBP/USD rate; and 3) earlier ramp-up of the power management product. Nokia (RIC: NOK1V.HE, Rec: Buy, CP: €9.43, TP: €12.50): We believe the key risks to our DCF-based target price and forecasts are: 1) weaker-than-expected demand for mobile devices, 2) a greater-than-expected loss in Nokia's market share in the converged device market, and 3) a steeper-than-expected decline in ASPs, leading to weaker margins. Ericsson (RIC: ERICb.ST, Rec: Hold, CP: SKr77.50, TP: SKr65.00): We apply a discount to our DCF valuation to reflect our concerns about the Sony Ericsson joint venture. Downside risks: 1)larger-than-expected losses at Sony Ericsson; 2) USD/SEK strength; and 3) competitive pricing. Upside risks: 1) further contract wins at Verizon and in China; 2) increasing proportion of high-margin outsourcing contracts; and 3) sale of Sony Ericsson stake. Regulatory disclosures Subject companies: ARM.L, CSR.L, IFXGn.DE, STM.PA, WLF.L, NOK1V.HE, ERICb.ST ABN AMRO currently maintains a market in the security of this company and otherwise purchases and sells securities of this company as principal: ARM.L, ERICb.ST ABN AMRO expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation during the next three months for investment banking services from this company, its subsidiaries or affiliates.: ARM.L, IFXGn.DE Tech Hardware & Equip | Disclosures Appendix | 24 July 2009
  6. 6. Global disclaimer  Copyright 2009 ABN AMRO Bank N.V. and affiliated companies ("ABN AMRO"). All rights reserved. This material was prepared by the ABN AMRO affiliate named on the cover or inside cover page. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. While based on information believed to be reliable, no guarantee is given that it is accurate or complete. While we endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information and opinions contained herein, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. The opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, derived valuations and target price(s) contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. 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On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ For a discussion of the valuation methodologies used to derive our price targets and the risks that could impede their achievement, please refer to our latest published research on those stocks at www.abnamroresearch.com. Disclosures regarding companies covered by ABN AMRO group can be found on ABN AMRO's research website at www.abnamroresearch.com. ABN AMRO's policy on managing research conflicts of interest can be found at https://www.abnamroresearch.com/Disclosure/Disclosure.AspX?MI=5. Should you require additional information please contact the relevant ABN AMRO research team or the author(s) of this report. Tech Hardware & Equip | Disclosures Appendix | 24 July 2009

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