Unemployment & 5 year analysis in BRICS Group 9 Ashish, Pawan, Prateek and Sai Chandan IIM Shillong Class of 2013Great Depression – “The Migrant Mother”
Intro • Occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively sought work within the past four weeks. • Measurement (% Unemployed to Employed) • Causes • Consequences • SolutionsTranslation: “Diligent young man seeking work”
E theories • Keynesian Economists – Cyclical Nature, Govt. intervention • Georgists – Cyclical, Speculation in land, Economic rent, Taxation (Single Tax) • Marxists – Reln owners & workers, capitalism,(The Depression) The Single Mens communism & socialism.Unemployed Association parading toBathurst Street United Church. Toronto,Canada
SA 5 year trend• In the short term - construction, manufacturing, and some public sector employment down - shrinkage in exports to the EU.• 60 % have no matric (equivalent of a high school diploma), 68 % have been looking for a year or longer, and 44 % have never worked• World Economic Forum: South Africa 139th out of 142 countries: 139 on hiring and firing practices, 138 on lack of flexibility in wage setting, and 138 in labor/employment relations.
Causes - SA • Education • Poor conditions • Diseases • Corruption • Bias • Foreigners – High wage, High skilled • Domestic – Low wageMen hold placards offering temporary – Competitionemployment services in Glenvista, south ofJohannesburg, October 7, 2010. (Siphiwe • Labor LawsSibeko/Courtesy Reuters)
World Bank Report, July 2012. • “In SA, a child’s gender and ethnicity at birth, combined with a lack of education, largely determine that person’s chances of success in life — even 18 years after the end of apartheid.” • “The richest 10 per cent of South Africans account for 58 per cent of the nation’s income, while the bottom 10 per centEntrance of World Bank, Source- accounts for 0.5 per cent”GettyImages
Actions - SA • Democratic Alliance plan - Economic policy doc – 30 July 2012 • Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs) – 1 April 2011 • Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP),09 • National Youth Development Agency (NYDA) – Job preps, skills, database, advisory.NYDA @ work
Brazil 5 year trend• Unemployed popn 1.4 million• Decline in urban unemployment from 12.3% in 2003 to 9.5% in July 2007• Service sector growth has played a major role in decreasing the unemployment rate of Brazil• Unemployment rate of women has shown a downward trend in recent years
Initiatives • Unprecedented social dialogue process to promote employment and decent work. • Unemployment compensation (1986) • Efforts to reduce employment discrimination against refugees. • Woman empowerment
Flaw• The latest figure is well below the countrys target of keeping urban unemployment under 5% in the 2011-2015• Official unemployment number is widely regarded as an unreliable gauge of the actual employment situation as it covers urban unemployment only and excludes migrant workers who move from rural areas to cities and become one of the most volatile part of the countrys labor market
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE The unemployment rate can be defined as thenumber of people actively looking for a job divided by the labor force.
EMPLOYMENT SCENARIO• Commodity-based economy which requires the cheapest possible workers.• No demand for qualified workers.• People are reluctant to take low-paying jobs.• The number of immigrants is on the rise because cheap, unskilled labor helps industrial companies achieve their production goals more efficiently.• Skills of the country’s human capital in general are on the decline. The quality of education in the country is eroding both in schools and universities. Russia has no systemic shortage of personnel; but it faces a deficit of people who are willing to work hard for unacceptably low pay.
Unemployment- INDIA• India’s labor regulations – among the most restrictive and complex in the world. Better designed labor regulations can attract more labor- intensive investment and create jobs for India’s unemployed millions and those trapped in poor quality jobs. - World Bank: India Country Overview 2008• Unemployment Situation in India 2009-10, on the basis of usually working persons in the principal status and subsidiary status, for every 1000 people employed in rural and urban India, 679 and 75 people are employed in the agriculture sector, 241 and 683 in services sector (including construction) and 80 and 242 in the industrial sector, respectively.
Recent Statistics• The annual survey of the Labour Bureau has recorded 3.8 per cent unemployment in the country for the year 2010-11, steep fall in comparison with the earlier one which found 9.4 per cent.
Flaw• Unemployment in India is characterised by chronic (disguised) unemployment.• Agricultural & allied sector which are backbone for employment are neglected over the years.• Indias labour regulations are heavy even by developing country standards.• The 11th five-year plan has also identified the need for a congenial environment to be created for employment generation, by reducing the number of permissions and other bureaucratic clearances required.• Inequalities and inadequacies in the education system• Child labour in India is a complex problem that is basically rooted in poverty, coupled with a failure of governmental policy.