New face for of Opportunity Selling in a Changed & Changing World
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New face for of Opportunity Selling in a Changed & Changing World

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Demographics for marketing/sales now and in the future.

Demographics for marketing/sales now and in the future.

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  • Most multi-cultural generation ever, least concerned about race and ethnicity, see diversity as desirable and attractive, means new tastes, language and cultural affiliations; Staying single longer, having children later, having fewer childrenMuch less tied to their own families (spouses and children) than to their parents
  • Most multi-cultural generation ever, least concerned about race and ethnicity, see diversity as desirable and attractive, means new tastes, language and cultural affiliations; Staying single longer, having children later, having fewer childrenMuch less tied to their own families (spouses and children) than to their parents

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  • 1. The New Face of Opportunity Selling in a Changed & Changing World Doug Anderson doug@statsprocket.comCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 1
  • 2. Copyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 2
  • 3. Key 21st Century Macro Trends Slowing Many Older Population Consumers with Growth New Needs Declining Share Income Declines of HHs with & Concentration Children Immigration & Rising Rate of Growth of Ethnic Obesity & Cost of Families HealthcareCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 3
  • 4. Uneven Global Population Growth Continues 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 India 7,000,000 China 6,000,000 5,000,000 Africa 4,000,000 3,000,000 Other less 2,000,000 developed 1,000,000 More developed regions -Source: UN Population Division 2010 RevisionCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 4
  • 5. Uneven Global Population Growth Continues 10,000,000 9,000,000 Between 2010 & 2050... 8,000,000 India +2.24 billion people (+32%) 7,000,000 Only 1.7% from the More Developed Regions China 6,000,000 5,000,000 Africa 4,000,000 3,000,000 Other less developed 2,000,000 1,000,000 More developed regions -Source: UN Population Division 2010 RevisionCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 5
  • 6. Share of HHs with Children in Freefall 50.0 2011 – all time low birth rate 45.0 Down 7% from 2007 to 2010 5% for native born / 13% for foreign born 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 1956 1989 2022 1950 1953 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Nielsen ProjectionsCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 6
  • 7. Rapid Ethnic Growth Among HHs with Kids Africa, Asia, Latin United Immigrant Flows America, Middle States, Canada, Eur 20MM+ per decade East ope, Australia Leads to rapid Young people leave Bring families or start growth in ethnic for opportunity new ones populations among families Multi-cultural populations accounted for 90%+ of HH growth (2000–10)New immigrants & their children will account for 80%+ of growth going forward Will account for all growth among HHs with childrenCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 7
  • 8. The U.S. Will Age for a Very Long Time 45.0 43.0 U.S. Median Age 41.0 39.0 37.0 35.0 33.0 31.0 29.0 27.0 25.0Source: UN Population DivisionCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 8
  • 9. Growth at the Bottom of the Income Distribution 16.0 14.0 Projected HH Growth Rates by Affluence Segments 2011 – 2021 12.0 Total U.S. Growth 7.8% 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Struggling Lower Mid Upper Mid Affluent WealthySource: Nielsen ProjectionsCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 9
  • 10. Obesity Rate Continues to Rise 50.0 44% Overall by 2030 45.0 10x increase in obesity related disease from 2010 to 2020, doubling again by 2030 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 Non Hispanic White Non Hispanic Black Mexican American Non Hispanic White Non Hispanic Black Mexican American Men Men Men Women Women Women 1988-94 2007-08Source: NHANECopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 10
  • 11. The New Face of OpportunitySelling in a Changed & Changing World Implications for the Future of Three Key Marketplace Groups • Baby Boomers • The New American Family • MillennialsCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 11
  • 12. Baby Boom 43% Verizon wireless 42% ATT / 36% Sprint 40% of CPG Spending 43% Sony Vaio 41% Apple iBook / iMacSource: Nielsen Homescan / MRICopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 12
  • 13. Baby Boom Percent of Voters Millennials, Pre Baby 18.1 Boom, 21. 2 63% Baby Gen Boom, 42. X, 18.5 2 Baby Boomers – - over half of persons who have held or run for political office - 44% of those who worked for a political party last yearSource: MRICopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 13
  • 14. Mind the Gap – Lifestage & Cohort Effects Volume Indices HOH 40- Item 64 HOH 65+ Gap Frozen Prepared Foods 105 73 31.6 Frozen Pizza 104 56 47.9 DiGiorno Frozen Pizza 102 63 38.7 Packaged Ice Cream 104 110 -6.4 Dreyers/Eddies 96 121 -24.9Source: Nielsen HomescanCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 14
  • 15. Family Growth About Half of Total HH Growth Lower Upper Lifestage Struggling Middle Middle Affluent Wealthy Total HOH <40 / Single Parents 11.8 4.7 2.3 1.5 2.2 8.0 HOH <40 / Couples 16.0 6.1 2.5 1.8 2.7 6.1 HOH 40+ / Single Parents 11.2 2.3 -2.0 -4.1 -5.1 3.8 HOH 40+ / Couples 17.5 6.0 -1.2 -4.4 -5.4 0.9 Total 13.6 5.1 0.4 -1.9 -2.8 4.3 Percent Change in the Number of U.S. HHs with Children: 2011-2021 HHs with Children Account for 47% of Frozen Pizza SalesSource: Nielsen Projections / Nielsen HomescanCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 15
  • 16. Slow Growth in Family HHs, But a Lot of Flux 2011–2021 HH GrowthHispanic Wealthy Other Affluent Asian Upper Middle Black Lower Middle Struggling White -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0Source: Nielsen ProjectionsCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 16
  • 17. Household Composition Will Continue to Shift % Children Living with Married Parents % Children Born to Unmarried Parents 100 90 87 80 72 70 64 60 53 50 41 40 29 30 20 10 5 0 1960 2008 1960 2008 White Black HispanicSource: U.S. Census BureauCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 17
  • 18. Percent Married by Education 80.0 76% 75.0 74% 70.0 71% 64% 65.0 60.0 50% 55.0 44% 50.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 Less Than High School High School / Some College College GraduateSource: U.S. Census BureauCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 18
  • 19. Median Age at First Marriage 29.0 28.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 1995 1890 1910 1930 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009Source: U.S. Census Bureau Men WomenCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 19
  • 20. Median Age at First Marriage 29.0 28.0 In 1968 68% of persons in their 20s were married 27.0 26.0 Today 26% are 25.0 24.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 1995 1890 1910 1930 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009Source: U.S. Census Bureau Men WomenCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 20
  • 21. The State of Marriage in the Future? 39% in a recent Pew survey agree that marriage is obsolete - 44% of 18–29 - 45% of High School or Less - 48% of HHI < $30k Marriages have become more peaceful with lower levels of conflict Spouses are living more separate lives with fewer shared activitiesCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 21
  • 22. No Growth Among 21-34 Year Olds, But… 110,000,000 60+ 21-34 100,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050Source: U.S. Census BureauCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 22
  • 23. Millennials Economics • Entering society in tough times and having a tough time doing it • Most educated generation in history but still can’t get a job • Minimal fifteen year impact to earnings • Many have headed back home to Mom & DayCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 23
  • 24. Millennials Not Tying the Knot • Marrying later if at all, staying single longer, much more likely to cohabitate • Will have fewer children further slowing U.S. growth rate • Less tied to the idea of creating their own families & much more tied to their parents than earlier generations at their agesCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 24
  • 25. Millennials Fully Multi-Cultural • Most multi-cultural adult generation in history • See diversity as desirable & attractive • New & different tastes • Language diversity & new cultural sensitivitiesCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 25
  • 26. Millennials Communicate different • Always had a mobile phone • Texting, networking, sharing • Different attention spans • Have only lived in the post-fact era, have new & different standards for evaluating messages • Not reached well through traditional channels & mediaCopyright © 2012 Douglas B. Anderson. Confidential and proprietary. The New Face of Opportunity 26
  • 27. Some Key Things to Take Away
  • 28. The future Demographic change is fundamental, widespread, & is now… permanent, and interrelated
  • 29. Growth is down / More products + Slow growth =competition is up… Increasing competition
  • 30. • Must sustain salesBoomers • Understand lifestage & cohort effects • Can’t ignore / can’t talk down
  • 31. New • Multi-cultural or bustAmerican • Precisely target Family • Non-traditional family arrangements
  • 32. • New geographies Younger • New mediaConsumers • Crazy levels of competition
  • 33. Questions?