0
THEGOLDWARSA Golden Renaissance A Tribute to Ferdinand Lips (1931 – 2005)
WHAT ARE GOLD WARS?Gold Wars are between governments and gold. This ultimatelyrestricts the constitutional rights of the p...
MONETARY POLLUTIONThe dollar’s purchasing power has been trashed in the post-war period. One dollar can buyyou less than o...
GLOBAL DEBT MOUNTAINToday’s system of paper money is still very young. It depends solely on the belief that thedebts upon ...
FERDINAND LIPS (1931 - 2005)“Gold Ferdi, the Pope of Gold”, Karl Otto Pohl, former Head of the BundesbankHe’s back but arg...
GOLD WARSGold Wars are between governments and gold.This ultimately restricts the constitutional rights of the people.The ...
GOLD WARS OF THE 20TH& 21ST CENTURIES1. The Classical Gold Standard is abandoned in 19142. The Genoa Gold Standard 19223. ...
THE LONDON GOLD POOL 1960 – 68                                                 The Gold Price was fixed at $35 a troy ounc...
THE TWO-TIER GOLD MARKET 1968                                       When the Gold Price was fixed at $35                  ...
GOLD IS UNDERVALUEDPrice is the level at which one exchanges; value is whetherit is worth it. Nominal new price highs in g...
GOLD IN ‘REAL’ DOLLARS IS STILLVERY UNDERVALUEDGold in current dollar terms is still 30% off the high it reached in 1980. ...
GOLD IS UNDERVALUEDIN CURRENCY TERMSThe official gold reserve in banks throughout 1930s to 1950s was 40% but in reality was...
COMMODITIES ARE UNDERVALUEDRELATIVE TO US EQUITIESCommodities as a whole are very cheap compared to equities. At Hinde we ...
GOLD IS UNDERVALUED VERSUSUS EQUITIESGold vs S&P would have go up six times to match the 1980 highs.                      ...
GOLD IS UNDERVALUED VERSUSUS EQUITIESEven more so on a total return basis:                                                ...
GOLD UNDERVALUED BUTOUTPERFORMING ALL ASSET CLASSESOver the last twenty years, gold has outperformed all major asset class...
GOLD IS UNDEROWNEDThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars   All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, bu...
MOST CENTRAL BANKSHOLD LITTLE GOLDEmerging market central banks hold very little gold. Their primary holdings are in USTre...
MOST CENTRAL BANKS NOW LOVE GOLD For the first time in forty years, central banks are beginning to buy more gold. China, Ru...
PAPER CURRENCY DWARFSGOLD ACCUMULATIONCentral banks are net buyers. But as fast as they might buy their paper currency res...
BUY WHAT CHINA IS BUYING: CHINAGOLD & SILVER LIBERALISATIONThe defining moment for the War on Gold? August 2010 will be the...
CURRENCY REFORM –YUAN LIBERALISATIONChina has so far been accumulating mainly dollar assets rather than gold as its reserv...
BRICS ADVOCATE CURRENCY REFORMJanuary 2009 Russian leader Mr Putin said the leading powers should ensure an “irreversible”...
GOLDEN DEMOGRAPHICS: EMERGINGMARKET OWNERSHIP IS LOWIt’s not just emerging central banks that are underinvested. On a per ...
GOLD INVESTMENTIS INFINITESIMALImagine the impact of a shift out of bond markets into Gold…                               ...
GOLD INVESTMENTHISTORICALLY MINUTEIn 1932 the allocation of gold relative to global financial investments was 20%. Today it...
GOLD UNDEROWNED AND FALLINGSUPPLY, RESERVE GRADESo much demand but not so much supply. There have been less than 5 gold di...
THE FINAL BATTLE?“In order to improve your game, you must study the endgame before everything else, for whereas the ending...
GOLD ‘SHORTS’ UNDER PRESSUREA series of actions have perhaps uncovered the distressed nature of the short perpetratorsin t...
FAILURE OF THE SECOND LONDONGOLD POOL 2000 TO ?Physical Gold dumped into the PM Fix to contain its price in a covert versi...
GOLD – WHERE ARE WE NOW?Gold went up considerably more in the 70s compared to the last decade.         GOLD REBASED FOR CO...
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Gold wars   - A golden renaissance presentation
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Gold wars - A golden renaissance presentation

291

Published on

Gold Wars are between governments and gold. This ultimately
restricts the constitutional rights of the people.
Gold is the vital barometer of the health of a nation’s currency.
The suppression of gold by government allows them to mask
the mismanagement of their currency.

Published in: Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
291
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Gold wars - A golden renaissance presentation"

  1. 1. THEGOLDWARSA Golden Renaissance A Tribute to Ferdinand Lips (1931 – 2005)
  2. 2. WHAT ARE GOLD WARS?Gold Wars are between governments and gold. This ultimatelyrestricts the constitutional rights of the people.Gold is the vital barometer of the health of a nation’s currency.The suppression of gold by government allows them to maskthe mismanagement of their currency.The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  3. 3. MONETARY POLLUTIONThe dollar’s purchasing power has been trashed in the post-war period. One dollar can buyyou less than one ninth of what it could have in 1950. DOLLAR – PURCHASING POWER PARITY BASIS 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Jan-50 Jan-53 Jan-56 Jan-59 Jan-62 Jan-65 Jan-68 Jan-71 Jan-74 Jan-77 Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  4. 4. GLOBAL DEBT MOUNTAINToday’s system of paper money is still very young. It depends solely on the belief that thedebts upon which it is based will be repaid someday. TOTAL DEBT & LIABILITIES AS % OF GDP 400% Cost of ageing Structural deficit 200% Initial debt level 0% -200% -400% -600% -800% -1000% -1200% -1400% -1600% -1800% Greece Italy Germany France USA Portugal UK Spain Ireland Sources: EU Commission, Eurostat, CBO, IMF, Morgan Stanley ResearchThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  5. 5. FERDINAND LIPS (1931 - 2005)“Gold Ferdi, the Pope of Gold”, Karl Otto Pohl, former Head of the BundesbankHe’s back but arguably he never left us – as his life’s work lives on through the Lips Institutewww.lips-institute.chThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  6. 6. GOLD WARSGold Wars are between governments and gold.This ultimately restricts the constitutional rights of the people.The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  7. 7. GOLD WARS OF THE 20TH& 21ST CENTURIES1. The Classical Gold Standard is abandoned in 19142. The Genoa Gold Standard 19223. Great Depression of 1930s – Exchange Stabilization Fund, Gold Reserve Act 19344. Bretton Woods 1944 – Gold Exchange Standard5. Collapse of the London Gold Pool 1960s and 70s6. Stagflation of 1970s and US Treasury and IMF Gold Sales7. The Failure of the Second London Gold Pool of 1990s and 2000s?The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  8. 8. THE LONDON GOLD POOL 1960 – 68 The Gold Price was fixed at $35 a troy ounce $38 1954 – 1968 Morning Fix, Left Axis, London Gold Market US Gold Reserves Yearly Tonnes, Right Axis $37 The London Gold Pool is dismantled Berlin Crisis $36 London Gold Pool established Cuban Missile Crisis $35.50 Gulf of Tonkin Incident De Gaulle’s gold speech Suez Canal nationalised Six day war $35.25 London Gold Suez Crisis – France, market reopened Israel and Britain invade Egypt $35.20 $35.15 $35.10 21,000 $35.05 19,000 First official US combat troops arrive in Vietnam $35.00 17,000 France leaves the Gold Pool $34.95 15,000 British pound devalued 14% October 1960 gold crisis begins $34.90 as gold breaks $35.20 13,000 Tet Offensive $34.85 11,000 9,000 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Source: Financial Graph & ArtThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  9. 9. THE TWO-TIER GOLD MARKET 1968 When the Gold Price was fixed at $35 1967-1971 Morning Fix - London Gold Market $46 South Africa sells gold Nixon ends $44 for foreign currency gold convertability 3 6 $42 5 $40 Run on US dollar, deutche mark allowed to float Gold Pool dismantled, $38 1 price spikes up South African gold 2 boycott begins $36 4 South Africa accepts $34 US compromise. London gold hits lowest level in history. 1968 1969 1970 1971 Source: Financial Graph & ArtThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  10. 10. GOLD IS UNDERVALUEDPrice is the level at which one exchanges; value is whetherit is worth it. Nominal new price highs in gold do not signalan overvalued market.The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  11. 11. GOLD IN ‘REAL’ DOLLARS IS STILLVERY UNDERVALUEDGold in current dollar terms is still 30% off the high it reached in 1980. Re-basing,hedonistic adjustments, etc have lowered the CPI levels and with it the true value of goldadjusted for inflation. GOLD IN CURRENT DOLLARS 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Mar-70 Mar-72 Mar-74 Mar-76 Mar-78 Mar-80 Mar-82 Mar-84 Mar-86 Mar-88 Mar-90 Mar-92 Mar-94 Mar-96 Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  12. 12. GOLD IS UNDERVALUEDIN CURRENCY TERMSThe official gold reserve in banks throughout 1930s to 1950s was 40% but in reality was muchhigher. Even to achieve this backing, assuming current gold supply, the price of gold will haveto rise by three to four times. GOLD BACKING OF THE U.S. MONETARY BASE (CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION + BANK RESERVE CASH) 150% 125% 100% Gold-Backed 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 1915 1995 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2010 Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve / World Gold CouncilThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  13. 13. COMMODITIES ARE UNDERVALUEDRELATIVE TO US EQUITIESCommodities as a whole are very cheap compared to equities. At Hinde we believe commoditieswill rise as currency creation competes with supply constraints. This will be gold positive. CRB/S&P RATIO 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Oct-57 Oct-60 Oct-63 Oct-66 Oct-69 Oct-72 Oct-75 Oct-78 Oct-81 Oct-84 Oct-87 Oct-90 Oct-93 Oct-96 Oct-99 Oct-02 Oct-05 Oct-08The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  14. 14. GOLD IS UNDERVALUED VERSUSUS EQUITIESGold vs S&P would have go up six times to match the 1980 highs. GOLD RELATIVE TO S&P 500 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Oct-70 Oct-72 Oct-74 Oct-76 Oct-78 Oct-80 Oct-82 Oct-84 Oct-86 Oct-88 Oct-90 Oct-92 Oct-94 Oct-96 Oct-98 Oct-00 Oct-02 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Gold/S&PThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  15. 15. GOLD IS UNDERVALUED VERSUSUS EQUITIESEven more so on a total return basis: GOLD RELATIVE TO S&P 500 600 600 The Gold v S&P ratio is currently one fifth 500 of the high it reached in the early 1980s. 500 Gold v Total Return S&P, however, is standing at only one twelfth the peak 400 it reached in 1980. 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Oct-70 Oct-72 Oct-74 Oct-76 Oct-78 Oct-80 Oct-82 Oct-84 Oct-86 Oct-88 Oct-90 Oct-92 Oct-94 Oct-96 Oct-98 Oct-00 Oct-02 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Gold/S&P Gold/Total Return S&PThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  16. 16. GOLD UNDERVALUED BUTOUTPERFORMING ALL ASSET CLASSESOver the last twenty years, gold has outperformed all major asset classes on many time horizons. GOLD V MAJOR ASSETS 350% 10y US Treasury (total return*) (*from 1994) S&P 500 300% MSCI World CRB Index Gold (USD) 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 1y Return 5yr Return 10y Return 15y Return 20y ReturnThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  17. 17. GOLD IS UNDEROWNEDThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  18. 18. MOST CENTRAL BANKSHOLD LITTLE GOLDEmerging market central banks hold very little gold. Their primary holdings are in USTreasuries. The scope for gold allocation in emerging markets is huge. PERCENTAGE OF RESERVE ASSETS IN GOLD 100% 87.9% 90% 78.5% 78.4% 80% 75.2% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 12.6% 8.1% 10% 3.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0% US World France Germany Netherlands Saudi Arabia China India Brazil Source: IMFThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  19. 19. MOST CENTRAL BANKS NOW LOVE GOLD For the first time in forty years, central banks are beginning to buy more gold. China, Russia, India and Sri Lanka and others are now buyers on any weakness in the gold price. NET CENTRAL BANK SALES CENTRAL BANK % RESERVES IN GOLD SINCE 1970MILLION %OUNCES 20 70 10 60 0 50 -10 40 -20 30 -30 20 -40 10 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 2005 2007 2009 1997 1999 2001 2003 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: IMF Source: IMF The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed. Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  20. 20. PAPER CURRENCY DWARFSGOLD ACCUMULATIONCentral banks are net buyers. But as fast as they might buy their paper currency reserveskeep growing faster. Russia has bought over 220 tonnes of gold between 2000 to 2010.In 2000 the ratio of Russian gold holdings to their currency was 24.6%; now it is 5.1%. CENTRAL BANK HOLDINGS OF GOLD IN MM TROY OUNCES CENTRAL BANK TOTAL INTERNATIONAL RESERVES – $ VALUE1,200 BILLION $ 80001,150 7000 60001,100 5000 40001,050 3000 20001,000 1000 950 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 Oct-70 Oct-72 Oct-74 Oct-76 Oct-78 Oct-80 Oct-82 Oct-84 Oct-86 Oct-88 Oct-90 Oct-92 Oct-94 Oct-96 Oct-98 Oct-00 Oct-02 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Source: IMF Source: IMFThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  21. 21. BUY WHAT CHINA IS BUYING: CHINAGOLD & SILVER LIBERALISATIONThe defining moment for the War on Gold? August 2010 will be the time we look back and saythat was when the war was potentially won. China’s PBoC announced “to further develop thegold market”. This country has a serious affinity for gold.The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  22. 22. CURRENCY REFORM –YUAN LIBERALISATIONChina has so far been accumulating mainly dollar assets rather than gold as its reservesballoon. The potential free float of the Yuan paves the way towards currency reform withRussia et al. CHINA: FX RESERVES AND GOLD AS A % OF RESERVES 3,000 5.0% 4.5% 2,500 4.0% 3.5% 2,000 3.0% 1,500 2.5% 2.0% 1,000 1.5% 1.0% 500 0.5% 0 0.0% Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Gold as a % FX Reserves, $ mnsThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  23. 23. BRICS ADVOCATE CURRENCY REFORMJanuary 2009 Russian leader Mr Putin said the leading powers should ensure an “irreversible”move toward a system of multiple reserve currencies, questioning the “reliability” of the US dollaras a safe store of value. “The pride of Wall Street investment banks doesn’t exist anymore,”March 2009 PBoC Governor Zhou calls for new reserve currency “that is disconnectedfrom individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherentdeficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies.”The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  24. 24. GOLDEN DEMOGRAPHICS: EMERGINGMARKET OWNERSHIP IS LOWIt’s not just emerging central banks that are underinvested. On a per capita basis,China and India own much less than many other countries, as well as below the world average.This is noteworthy for two gold loving countries. GOLD DEMAND (GRAMS PER CAPITA) 5 4.5 China still hugely underowns gold. 4 It owns much less on a per capita 3.5 basis than several other countries, and also owns less than the 3 world average. 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Vietnam US UK Hong Kong Japan Turkey South Korea Egypt Indonesia Italy Thailand Russia World Taiwan Saudi Arabia Germany China France India Source: UN, WGCThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  25. 25. GOLD INVESTMENTIS INFINITESIMALImagine the impact of a shift out of bond markets into Gold… TRILLION $ 200.0 150 100 60.2 50 0.8 5.0 INVESTMENT MARKET VALUE GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY (M3) FINANCIAL ASSETS GOLD OF ALL GOLDThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  26. 26. GOLD INVESTMENTHISTORICALLY MINUTEIn 1932 the allocation of gold relative to global financial investments was 20%. Today it standsat 0.8%. To rise to 2% would require 85,000 tonnes, approximately 34 years mine supplyat existing rates. GOLD + GOLD MINING EQUITIES AS A % OF GLOBAL ASSETS 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1921 1932 1948 1981 2009 Source: Erste BankThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  27. 27. GOLD UNDEROWNED AND FALLINGSUPPLY, RESERVE GRADESo much demand but not so much supply. There have been less than 5 gold discoveries over10mm troy oz. this past decade. Barrick needs to replace 9mm troy oz. of production a year. GOLD MINE SUPPLY HEADING DOWN GLOBAL MINE COSTS AND RESERVE GRADE g/t 750 1.8 Tonnes12% 1.7 2500 650 1.69% Reserve Grade g/t 550 1.5 Costs US$/oz6% 450 1.4 2000 1.33% 350 1.20% 1500 250 1.1-3% 150 1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-6% 1000 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011E Cash cost Total costs Mine Supply Mine Supply Reserve grade Source: World Gold Council, UBSThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  28. 28. THE FINAL BATTLE?“In order to improve your game, you must study the endgame before everything else, for whereas the endings can be studied and mastered by themselves, the middle game and the opening must be studied in relation to the endgame” Jose Raul CapablancaThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  29. 29. GOLD ‘SHORTS’ UNDER PRESSUREA series of actions have perhaps uncovered the distressed nature of the short perpetratorsin the precious metals market.Mysterious BIS Gold Swaps July 2010• 380 tonnes of gold is swapped between BIS and unnamed commercial bank• FT and WSJ post conflicting commentary from BIS themselves on counterparties involvedCFTC Hearings March 2010• Precious Metals trader blows whistle on manipulation of Comex market• Comex commercial bank short positions have been reducing as investigation mountsIMF Quietly Selling Gold• 15 tonnes a month for first half of 2010The Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  30. 30. FAILURE OF THE SECOND LONDONGOLD POOL 2000 TO ?Physical Gold dumped into the PM Fix to contain its price in a covert version of the 1960’sLondon Gold Pool. Selling at PM fix and purchasing at the AM fix for last nine yrs returnsUS$1,400 per troy ounce. CUMULATIVE INTRADAY CHANGE AND CUMULATIVE OVERNIGHT CHANGE IN GOLD 2001-2010 1600 100 Overnight Intraday 1400 0 Cum. Overnight Change $/oz 1200 Cum. Intraday Change $/oz -100 1000 -200 800 -300 600 -400 400 -500 200 0 -600 1/1/2001 9/28/2003 6/24/2006 3/20/2009 12/15/2011 Source: Adrian Douglas, www.marketforceanalysis.comThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  31. 31. GOLD – WHERE ARE WE NOW?Gold went up considerably more in the 70s compared to the last decade. GOLD REBASED FOR COMPARISON – 1970-1980 AND 1999 TO PRESENT GOLD IN NOMINAL $S FROM 1970-1980 AND FROM 1999 TO PRESENT 190016X 170014X 150012X 130010X 1971 Nixon closes 1100 ‘Gold Window’ Are we here? 8X 900 700 6X 500 4X 300 2X 100 -100 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 JAN 72 JULY 72 JULY 73 JAN 79 JULY 79 JAN 71 JULY 71 JAN 73 JAN 74 JULY 74 JAN 75 JULY 75 JAN 77 JULY 77 JAN 80 JULY 80 JAN 81 JULY 81 JULY 70 JAN 76 JAN 78 JULY 78 JULY 76 Months from Jan 1970, Jan 1999 resp. 1970-1980 1999-Present 1970-1980 1999-PRESENTThe Mining Journal Investor Seminars All material is compiled from sources believed to be accurate, but no accuracy can be guaranteed.Date: 07/09/10 The presentation is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation to invest. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×