Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Africa summary 2011h2
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Africa summary 2011h2

2,144

Published on

Published in: Travel, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
2,144
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
79
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. www.informatandm.comAfricaMobile Trend AnalysisAfrica remains focused on data market growthFor further details about the data in these slides, click on the URL links to the live sites below each data setIf you have any requests or suggestions for other data sets to be included, please contact us at Analyst Supportanalystsupport@informa.com © Informa UK Limited 2011. All rights reserved.
  • 2. Africa Highlights By end 4Q11, Africa’s mobile subscriptions reached at 645.98 million translating to a penetration of 60.45% and a year-on-year growth of 19.12%. Nigeria maintained the market lead in the African continent with 95.22 million mobile subscribers and a penetration of 58.22% in 4Q11. MTN Nigeria continues to be Africa’s biggest operator with 41.64 million mobile subscribers as of 4Q11. Ethiopia to have a CAGR of 17.1% by 2017, the highest in the region. Africa’s mobile broadband subscriptions reached 15.4 million in 4Q11 with South Africa leading with 7 million. Vodacom South Africa remained the top African mobile broadband operator in 4Q11 with 3.5 million subscribers HSPA to dominate Africa’s mobile subscription by 2017 representing 74.2% of the total. Africa see three commercial LTE network launches
  • 3. Mobile subscription data Increased growth rate in 2H11 see the region’s penetration rate surpass 60% African subscriptions vs quarterly growth Share of African subscriptions, 4Q11 Subscriptions (mn) Quarterly growth (%) 660 7.00% Nigeria 15% Egypt Subscriptions (millions) 640 6.00% 12% 620 5.00% Growth (%) 600 580 4.00% South Africa Others 9% 560 3.00% 48% 540 2.00% 520 1.00% 500 480 0.00% Morocco 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 7% African Summary 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Kenya Algeria 4% 6% Subscriptions (m) 542,5 566,6 589,5 616,3 645,5 Net adds (m) 29,2 31,1 24,2 22,9 26,8 Share of African net additions, 4Q11 Quarterly growth (%) Egypt 6,09 4,45 4,05 4,54 4,74 13% Penetration (%) Others 51,93 53,93 55,80 58,00 60,41 44% Ethiopia 13% Quarterly net additions comparison 4Q10 and 4Q11Subscription net additions 6,000 5,000 Nigeria Thousands 4,000 11% 4Q10 3,000 Sudan 4Q11 7% 2,000 1,000 Uganda South Africa 4% 6% 0 Egypt Egypt Mali Ethiopia Morocco Uganda Subscriptions
  • 4. Country Focus: Nigeria Nigeria recovers from negative growth brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11 Subscriptions (million) Quarterly Growth (%) 100 10Subscriptions (million) 80 Growth (%) 5 Share of Nigerian subscriptions, 4Q11 60 Etisalat Airtel 11% 19% 40 0 Rest 5% 20 0 -5 Glo Mobile 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 21%By end 4Q11, Nigeria had a total of 95.22 million mobile subscribers and MTNa total penetration of 58.22%. The country experienced a positive growth 44%rate of 3.44% as operators recover from the negative growth ratesbrought about by SIM card registration in 1H11. Share of Nigerian net additions, 4Q11 AirtelIncreased competition in 2H11 saw MTN lose its market share from 45.2% 36%in 2Q11 to 44% in 4Q11. However, it continued to maintain the market leadwith over 41 million subscribers Glo Mobile 1% MTNEtisalat registered the highest number of new subscribers in 4Q11, 14%amounting to 1.87 million and representing 49% of the total netadditions over the quarter. Etisalat 49%
  • 5. Country Focus: Egypt Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11 Egypt subscription and quarterly growth, 4Q10-4Q11 By the end of 4Q11, Egypt had 80.82 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 93.26%. The Subscriptions Quarterly growth (%) 100 10 year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 18.32% compared with 23.4% in 4Q10. 8Subscriptions (m) 6 Growth (%) Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44% 80 market share and 36.36 million subscribers. Total net 4 additions for the quarter stood at 3.74 million 2 60 0 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Share of Egypt subscriptions, 4Q11 Share Egypt net additions, 4Q11 ECMS Vodafone ECMS 1% 44% 36% Vodafone Egypt 64% Etisalat 17% Etisalat 35%
  • 6. Country Focus: South Africa South Africa records positive growth in 2H11 Share of South Africa subscriptions, 4Q11 South Africa subscription and quarterly growth, 4Q10-4Q11 Subscriptions Quarterly growth (%) 8ta 60 8 2% Vodacom 7 44% 50Subscriptions (m) 6 Cell C 40 16% 5 Growth (%) 30 4 3 20 2 10 1 MTN 0 0 38% 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Share of South Africa net additions, 4Q11 8ta Vodacom 15% 16% At the end of 4Q11, South Africa had 58.24 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 114.53%. The quarterly growth rate stood at 3.43% compared to 0.55% in 2Q11. Cell C Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44% market share 14% and 25.35 million subscribers. However, it is closely followed by MTN with 22.03 million subscriber. MTN 55% MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 1.07 million. This represented 55% of the total net additions in 4Q11
  • 7. Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
  • 8. Top 20 markets by % growth in the year to end 4Q11* Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
  • 9. Subscription forecasts, 2012-2017 Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017 Africa by CAGR, 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million) 18 16 14 12 CAGR (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Uganda Cameroon Ghana Nigeria Kenya Mali Rep of Congo Sudan Côte dIvoire Tanzania Egypt Morocco Senegal Ethiopia Democratic Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017 Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017 14 1,200 12 Subscriptions (millions) 10 1,000 8 800Millions 6 600 4 400 2 0 200 0 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest 2017 Forecasts
  • 10. 3G/4G trends Africa’s mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks Network deployments 2H11 Africa 3G/4G subscriptions forecast by technology 700 Start date Country Operator Technology 600 3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100 Subscriptions (millions) 500 3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100 400 3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100 300 Sierra 3Q11 Africell W-CDMA-2100 Leone 200 3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100 100 3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100 W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE 4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100 3G subscriptions by country, 4Q10 vs 4Q11 14.0 WiMAX-Mobile- 4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet 2300 12.0 Subscriptions (millions) 10.0 4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100 8.0 W-CDMA-2100 4Q11 Uganda Warid 6.0 4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900 4.0 W-CDMA-2100 4Q11 Cape Verde T+ 2.0 0.0 Guinea W-CDMA-2100 4Q11 Orange Guinee South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia Republic W-CDMA-900 4Q10 4Q11 4Q11 Togo TogoCel3G defined as W-CDMA, HSPA, EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A3G/HSPA subscriptionsNetwork launches
  • 11. Technology forecast, 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africa’s mobile subscriptions by 2017 Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions, 2012 Africa subscription forecast by technology Others 25% 1,400 South Africa Kenya 40% 1,200 7% Morocco 6% Subscriptions (millions) 1,000 Egypt 800 7% Nigeria 15% 600 Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions, 2017 400 South Africa 200 13% Nigeria 11% 0 Egypt Others 11% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 52% 2G and 2.5G(GSM, GPRS, EDGE, 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA, EV-DO) Morocco 6% 3.5G (HSPA, EV-DO Rev. A) 4G (LTE) Kenya 7% Forecast for 3G 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Split WCDMA-only 40,714,700 54,829,100 70,211,100 85,961,900 99,306,600 108,669,800 HSPA 36,977,300 68,373,700 118,733,100 191,638,000 289,757,000 408,749,000 1x EV-DO 3,478,600 5,275,300 8,624,300 14,786,300 23,269,800 33,185,800Forecasts
  • 12. Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africa’s mobile broadband market Top African mobile broadband operators, 4Q11 Africa’s mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11 Subscriptions (thousands) 18,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 16,000 Subscriptions (thousands) Vodacom South Africa 14,000 12,000 MTN South Africa 10,000 MTN Nigeria 8,000 6,000 Globacom Nigeria 4,000 2,000 Wana Morocco 0 Safaricom Kenya 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Etisalat Egypt Top mobile broadband markets, 4Q11 Médi Télécom Morocco 8,000 Subscriptions (thousands) 7,000 Ittissalat Al-Maghrib 6,000 Unitel Angola 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Note: Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the 1,000 number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA, EV-DO, or EV-DO Rev A 0 covering all device types (data-cards, USB Kenya Ghana Namibia Nigeria South Africa Egypt Botswana Angola Réunion Morocco modems, embedded notebooks and handsets).http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls
  • 13. Data market Africa sees 13.5% y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11 Data revenues by operator, 3Q11 400 350  Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key Data revenues (US$ m) 300 revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues. In 250 4Q11, total data revenues amounted to over US$1.4 billion representing a 13.5% increase over 4Q10. 200 150  South Africa lead the Africa’s data market in 4Q11 100 generating a total of US$612.46 million. However, 50 Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40%) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter. 0 Vodacom MTN SA Safaricom MTN Ittissalat Unitel Libyana Orascom ECMS Vodafone SA Nigeria Al-Maghrib Angola Algeria Egypt Egypt  The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products. In 2H11, 13 operators launched 3G Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator, services to their customers. 3Q11 45%  As of 2Q12, Africa has seen three commercial LTE 40% network launches. Angola’s Movicel became the first 40%Data revenues (%) 35% operator to launch LTE services in Africa. It was followed closely Namibia’s MTC and Mauritius’s Emcel. 30% 25% 28% 20% 22% 22% 21% 15% 10% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 5% 0% Starcomms Safaricom Vodacom MTC MTN SA Airtel Unitel Vodacom Vodacom Tigo TZ SA Namibia Zambia Angola TZ LesothoWorld Cellular Data Metrics
  • 14. Data usage summary Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as  Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment. In 3Q11, the % of total data revenues, 3Q11 contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50% as demand for mobile Internet increase. 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0  The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the MTN South Africa 61.9% continent. Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts a penetration of 11% by 2016. Vodacom South Africa 61.9% MTN Ghana 50.0% Smartphone connections forecast – Africa, 2012 - 2016 MTN Nigeria 50.0% Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate Safaricom Kenya 46.0% 80 10.00% Millions Globacom Nigeria 46.0% 60 7.50% Airtel Nigeria 43.0% 40 5.00% MTC Namibia 34.0% 20 2.50% Airtel Kenya 28.7% - 0.00% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Airtel Zambia 20.0%World Cellular Data Metrics
  • 15. Operator performance indicators Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operator’s blended ARPU Average blended ARPU by country, 4Q10-4Q11 35.00 Angola South Africa 30.00 Cape Verde 25.00 Botswana Mauritius ARPU (US$) 20.00 Tunisia 15.00 Morocco Swaziland 10.00 Gabon Equitorial 5.00 Guinea Congo 0.00 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 http://www.wcisplus.com/xls/GlobalARPU.xls Highest ARPU by operator, 4Q11 Lowest ARPU by operator, 4Q11 Blended Blended Country Operator Country Operator ARPU (US$) ARPU (US$) Reunion SFR Reunion 40.00 Benin Etisalat Benin 3.40 Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 31.52 Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 3.31 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 28.50 Madagascar Orange Madagascar 3.04 Equitorial Guinea Getesa 28.00 Ghana Kasapa 2.74 Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 24.50 Benin Bell Benin Communications 2.40 Angola Unitel Angola 23.00 Burundi Onatel Burundi 2.20 Libya Libyana 23.00 Guinea Republic Sotelgul 1.35KPIs
  • 16. Key Outlook According to Informa Telecoms & Media forecast, African will have 1.12 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 649.7 million in end-2011, representing a 72.3% increase. Africa’s mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections. This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region. The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies. The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage. More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels. However, the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud. Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators. Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service. This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel, MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa. Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks .

×