Swiss Energy Strategy and research projects
concerning behavior change
Dr. Aurelio Fetz, Market Regulation, Swiss Federal ...
Why is Energy Strategy 2050 necessary?

Prices and
markets
Supply
security

Climate
change

Environment,
nature,
landscape...
Energy policy milestones since Fukushima
• On 25 May 2011, Federal Council
announces decision to withdraw from
nuclear ene...
Energy Strategy 2050: key elements (1/2)
1. No new nuclear power plants
2. Promotion of energy efficiency
3. Increased use...
Energy Strategy 2050: key elements (2/2)
5. Expansion of electricity networks
• Optimisation, renovation and expansion of
...
Energy Strategy 2050: overview
Energy Strategy 2050
Phase 1

Phase 2
(from 2021)

Coordinated Energy
Research action
plan
...
Effects of initial package of measures:
end-energy use and electricity consumption, 1950-2050
PJ

TWh

900

250

800
EEV

...
Effects of initial package of measures:
development of total energy consumption & energy mix
PJ

Hydrogen

TWh

900

250

...
Effects of initial package of measures:
development of electricity supply and demand
TWh
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
(c) ...
Measures relating to energy efficiency:
key elements

Buildings

Industry and
services

Increase in
CO2 fee
and
strengthen...
SwissEnergy: measures

• All voluntary activities and measures aimed at supporting energy
efficiency and use of renewable ...
“Coordinated Energy Research” action plan
Focus of support in 4 main areas:
1. Increase in capacity for energy research (t...
Socio-economic interdisciplinary research program
Energy-Economy-Society (EWG)
Efficient use of research budget (approx. 1...
EWG - From Theory to Policies and Practice

Organisations,
energy
industry

Federal state,
Cantons,
municipalities

Politi...
Example: Smart Metering Impact Assessment

Published in 2012
13 authors und 8 institutions
Technical, economical and legal...
Adaptive and time-of-use pricing schemes for smart
technology integration: prospective study in the Leman region

• Resear...
Flexi: Potential for a flexible electricity demand

• Research questions:
– What is the potential for a flexible electrici...
An Evaluation of the Impact of Energy Efficiency Policies
on Residential Electricity Demand in Switzerland

• Research que...
Rebound Effects

• Research question:
– What types of economic, socio-psychologic and regulatory factors lead to a
change ...
Energy Elasticities and the Rebound Effect
• Research question:
– How do energy use patterns look like in Switzerland?
– M...
Energy-Using Durables: Driving Forces of Purchase Decisions/
Development of a decision model explaining purchase of energy...
Conclusions

• The promotion of energy efficiency is one of the key elements of
the energy strategy 2050
• There is a need...
Thank you for your attention!

23
BACK-UP

24
Energy policy: main objectives

Supply security
Technical safety

Environmental compatibility

Economic viability

25
Distribution of tasks and responsibilities in the
energy sector
Energy policy (Article 89, Swiss Federal Constitution):
• ...
2050 energy perspectives: three scenarios
"Business as
Usual" scenario

• Continuation of previous policy
• Autonomous tec...
Initial package of Energy Strategy 2050 measures:
key elements
1. Consumption and expansion targets in Federal Energy Act
...
Some elements to be prioritised through Parliamentary
Initiative 12.400
Parliamentary initiative launched by CESPE-N (Comm...
SwissEnergy programme to support effectiveness of
initial package of measures
SwissEnergy:
•

To function as information a...
SwissEnergy as an integral component of the
Energy Strategy 2050
• All voluntary and other measures aimed at supporting
en...
Socio-economic interdisciplinary research program
Energy-Economy-Society (EWG)

32
Current EWG-projects concerning behavioural change
• Adaptive and time-of-use pricing schemes for smart technology
integra...
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Task 24 The Swiss Energy Story

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Aurelio Fetz, from the Swiss Energy Ministry, presented the Swiss energy strategy and current DSM research projects at the Task 24 workshop in Luzern, October 15, 2013.

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Task 24 The Swiss Energy Story

  1. 1. Swiss Energy Strategy and research projects concerning behavior change Dr. Aurelio Fetz, Market Regulation, Swiss Federal Office of Energy Workshop IEA DSM Task 24, 15.10.2013
  2. 2. Why is Energy Strategy 2050 necessary? Prices and markets Supply security Climate change Environment, nature, landscape Infrastructure Population growth Energy Strategy 2050 Withdrawal from nuclear energy 2
  3. 3. Energy policy milestones since Fukushima • On 25 May 2011, Federal Council announces decision to withdraw from nuclear energy. • Parliament subsequently adopts this resolution. • Initial package of Energy Strategy 2050 measures has been submitted to Parliament at its 2013 autumn session. 3
  4. 4. Energy Strategy 2050: key elements (1/2) 1. No new nuclear power plants 2. Promotion of energy efficiency 3. Increased use of renewable energy • • Hydropower: + 3.2 TWh (+ pump storage for integration of new renewable energy forms) New renewable energy: exploitation of sustainably utilisable potentials (24.2 TWh) 4. Remaining demand to be met through: • Fossil-fuelled electricity production (primarily gas and steam) • Imports 4
  5. 5. Energy Strategy 2050: key elements (2/2) 5. Expansion of electricity networks • Optimisation, renovation and expansion of transmission and distribution networks • Reorientation in direction of smart grids 6. Intensified energy research 7. Federal government to act as role model 8. Strengthening of SwissEnergy programme 9. Intensification of international cooperation in the energy sector 5
  6. 6. Energy Strategy 2050: overview Energy Strategy 2050 Phase 1 Phase 2 (from 2021) Coordinated Energy Research action plan 2050 energy perspectives Transition from promotion system to steering mechanism Initial package of measures Parliamentary initiative 12.400 Negotiations with the EU on electricity agreement Electricity networks strategy Second stage of market liberalisation Revision of Electricity Supply Act 6
  7. 7. Effects of initial package of measures: end-energy use and electricity consumption, 1950-2050 PJ TWh 900 250 800 EEV 700 200 45 % 600 208 PJ 500 400 100 300 200 51 % Electricity demand Elektrizitätsnachfrage 58 PJ 100 0 1950 NEP = 50 (c) Prognos AG 2012 1960 1970 1980 Past Vergangenheit Szenarien: WWB = POM = 150 1990 2000 WWB Business as Usual Political Measures of the Federal Council New Energy Policy 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 2050 POM NEP Other abbreviations: EEV = end-energy consumption 7
  8. 8. Effects of initial package of measures: development of total energy consumption & energy mix PJ Hydrogen TWh 900 250 Biogas as fuel Gas as fuel 800 Liquid biofuels 200 700 Aviation fuels Diesel 600 Petrol 150 500 Biogas, sewage gas Ambient heat Solar heat 400 100 (Industrial) Waste Wood 300 District heat* 200 50 Coal Gas 100 (c) Prognos AG 2012 0 Other oil products 0 1960 1970 2000 2010 2020 2035 2050 Heating oil products or fuels Electricity* 8
  9. 9. Effects of initial package of measures: development of electricity supply and demand TWh 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 (c) Prognos 2012 20 bestehende Wasserkraftwerke Existing hydropower plants Existing fossil-fuelled power plants bestehende fossile KW New fossil-fuelled neue fossile WKK power plants New nuclear power plants neue Kernkraftwerke 10 neue Wasserkraftwerke New hydropower plants Existing purchase rights bestehende Bezugsrechte New renewable energy neue Erneuerbare* New imports neue Importe bestehende Kernkraftwerke Existing nuclear power plants Existing renewable energy bestehende Erneuerbare* New cogeneration plants neue Kombikraftwerke Gross demand Bruttonachfrage 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 coupled und ungekoppelt *) gekoppeltand uncoupled 2035 2040 2045 2050 Hydrological Jahr Hydrologischesyear Electricity supply, “Political Measures” scenario, option “C&E” 9
  10. 10. Measures relating to energy efficiency: key elements Buildings Industry and services Increase in CO2 fee and strengthening of buildings programme Target agreements in accordance with Parliamentary Initiative 12.400 Mobility Electrical appliances Electricity suppliers More stringent CO2 emission regulations Efficiency and consumption regulation Efficiency target for electricity suppliers Informative measure: More stringent model energy provisions of the cantons 10
  11. 11. SwissEnergy: measures • All voluntary activities and measures aimed at supporting energy efficiency and use of renewable energy in Energy Strategy 2050 to be placed under the umbrella of SwissEnergy. • Expansion and promotion of programme • Training initiative: training and further education in the energy sector • Promotion of technology transfer • Quality assurance in renewable energy systems • SwissEnergy for municipalities 11
  12. 12. “Coordinated Energy Research” action plan Focus of support in 4 main areas: 1. Increase in capacity for energy research (teams) 2. Development of the Swiss Competence Centres for Energy Research (SCCER) (including efficiency, networks, electricity and heat storage, electricity from renewable energy, mobility, biomass) 3. Competitive funding for research projects (Commission for Technology and Innovation, CTI) 4. Promotional activities of the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) (National Research Programmes, National Centres of Competence in Research, SNSF professorships) Adopted by Parliament in spring 2013. 12
  13. 13. Socio-economic interdisciplinary research program Energy-Economy-Society (EWG) Efficient use of research budget (approx. 1.5 Mio CHF/a) Support of socio-economic studies Applied research to develop new models and methods in energy economics Policy-oriented research as a basis for regulation Individual, close project supervision Close coordination with other research programs and institutions Communication, discussion and networking events Connect information and people 13
  14. 14. EWG - From Theory to Policies and Practice Organisations, energy industry Federal state, Cantons, municipalities Politicians, journalists, stakeholders A multiplicity of: • Target groups • Requirements • Communication channels EWGResearcher Researcher SCCER, SNSF, CTI, EF-ZH 14
  15. 15. Example: Smart Metering Impact Assessment Published in 2012 13 authors und 8 institutions Technical, economical and legal assessment Support from 2 research programs and 1 employee from the BFE section “Grids” Interdisciplinary report which discusses the important issues regarding smart metering rollout and draws clear conclusions. Input for the Electricity Networks Strategy and the Smart Grid Roadmap. 15
  16. 16. Adaptive and time-of-use pricing schemes for smart technology integration: prospective study in the Leman region • Research questions: – What are the available time-varying electricity pricing schemes in the context of a development of smart-grid technologies? – What is the potential for these tariffs to realise load-shifting and/or load-shedding? – Would these tariffs encourage the penetration of battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles? • Methodology: – Conjoint analysis, game theory, bottom-up multi-energy techno-economic model • Expected contributions (by mid 2014): – Survey to evaluate the attitude of households concerning their future participation to demand-response mechanisms and their appetence for storage in plug-in electric vehicles. – Quantifying the effects of integrating a behavioural component in technoeconomic models. Case study in the Leman region energy sector. – First explorations of nodal pricing schemes. 16
  17. 17. Flexi: Potential for a flexible electricity demand • Research questions: – What is the potential for a flexible electricity demand of the households in order to maximise the local consumption of PV generation – How can consumption be influenced by increasing the demand between 11-15 when PV production is high? – How can household consumption be affected by the provision of information on consumption and by monetary incentives? • Methodology: – Questionnaire and econometric analysis – Field study with 300 households in Cernier • Expected contributions (by end of 2015): – Quantification how much of the household electricity demand can be covered with local PV generation by the use of smart technologies – Cost-benefit-analysis of a flexible demand for the integration of solar energy into the grid 17
  18. 18. An Evaluation of the Impact of Energy Efficiency Policies on Residential Electricity Demand in Switzerland • Research questions: – How responsive is the residential electricity demand, at the aggregated and disaggregated levels, to a change in the electricity price? – What is the impact of different energy efficiency programmes on electricity demand? • Methodology: – Unique household survey and a survey of Swiss utilities – Econometric methods, demand estimation including, e.g. instrumental variables and difference-in-differences (policy evaluation) • Expected contributions (by end of 2014): – An updated estimate of the price elasticity of residential electricity demand at the disaggregated and aggregated levels – Evaluation of demand-side management programmes and their impact on electricity demand 18
  19. 19. Rebound Effects • Research question: – What types of economic, socio-psychologic and regulatory factors lead to a change in energy consumption? – In what areas do politically enforced energetic measures lead to socio-psychological and behavioural relevant dynamic effects that influence energy consumption? – In what areas do rebound-effects occur? What causes them? – What rebound-risks could arise due to the implementation of the energy strategy 2050? – Is there a need for action? Are there additional measures needed? • Methodology: – Literature analysis, Analysis of energy-saving measures in the energy strategy 2050 • Expected contributions (by autumn 2013): – A comprehensive analysis about behavioural-economic and socio-psychological potentials and risks related to the policy measures as outlined in the energy strategy 2050 – Recommendations for further actions to control rebound-effects 19
  20. 20. Energy Elasticities and the Rebound Effect • Research question: – How do energy use patterns look like in Switzerland? – More precisely, what are: • Substitution and cross-price elasticities (elasticities between energy and other factors and elasticities between different energy sources / services) • Own-price and income elasticities of different energy sources / services • Energy efficiency elasticities rebound effect (efficiency elasticities of selected energy services) • Methodology: – Econometric estimations using a translog cost function and a logistic function to present factor shares • Expected contributions (by early 2015): – A comprehensive assessment of energy use patterns in Switzerland – A method based on econometric analysis to estimate rebound effects via efficiency elasticities of selected energy services in Switzerland 20
  21. 21. Energy-Using Durables: Driving Forces of Purchase Decisions/ Development of a decision model explaining purchase of energy consuming durables • Research questions: – How do people proceed when they decide to purchase electric devices? – How strongly do consumers take energy consumption and energy labels into account? What do consumers say about energy labeling? – Do consumers of energy-using durables in fact misoptimize? – What are the driving forces of misoptimization? – Which one of the potential forces, imperfect information, inattention, or credit constraints, is the most important cause of misoptimization? – Are there observable consumers’ characteristics that correlate with the degree of misoptimization? • Methodology: – Survey at the point of sale, concomitant online experiment • Expected contributions (by early 2015): – A better understanding of what drives purchasing decisions of energy consuming durables – Provision of new insights in how purchase behavior of durable goods should be modeled 21
  22. 22. Conclusions • The promotion of energy efficiency is one of the key elements of the energy strategy 2050 • There is a need for behavioural change in order to reach the energy efficiency goals • Behavioural change within the energy strategy 2050 can be reached by: – awareness raising (labelling, information, consulting SwissEnergy) – financial incentives (such as CO2 tax, target agreements, steering mechanisms, building program) – obligations (such as white certificates) – standards (regarding CO2 emissions and electric appliances) • Energy research is intensified and supports policy measures and technological change in order to reach the targets of the energy strategy 2050 22
  23. 23. Thank you for your attention! 23
  24. 24. BACK-UP 24
  25. 25. Energy policy: main objectives Supply security Technical safety Environmental compatibility Economic viability 25
  26. 26. Distribution of tasks and responsibilities in the energy sector Energy policy (Article 89, Swiss Federal Constitution): • Federal government and cantons are responsible for energy supply and for economic and efficient energy use. • Federal government specifies the principles governing the use of domestic and renewable energy and energy consumption. • Federal government specifies regulations governing energy consumption of systems, vehicles and appliances. • Measures relating to consumption of energy in buildings are primarily the responsibility of the cantons. Energy industry: Energy industry is responsible for the country’s energy supply (Article 4, paragraph 2, Swiss Federal Energy Act). Nuclear energy: Federal government is responsible for legislation governing nuclear energy (Article 90, Swiss Federal Constitution). 26
  27. 27. 2050 energy perspectives: three scenarios "Business as Usual" scenario • Continuation of previous policy • Autonomous technological progress similar to that of the past 30 years "Political Measures of the Federal Council" scenario • Depiction of political measures of the Federal Council = initial package of measures • Utilisation of existing technologies "New Energy Policy" scenario • Target: per capita energy consumption to result in maximum of 1.5 tonnes CO2 in 2050 • This target is in line with international consensus regarding energy policy priorities 27
  28. 28. Initial package of Energy Strategy 2050 measures: key elements 1. Consumption and expansion targets in Federal Energy Act 2. Measures relating to energy efficiency 3. Measures relating to renewable energy 4. Measures relating to fossil-fuelled power plants 5. Measures relating to electricity networks (others to follow in new electricity networks strategy) 6. Continuation of pilot and demonstration programme Introduction of flagship programme 7. Strengthening of SwissEnergy programme 8. No more licence applications for nuclear power plants 9. Ban on reprocessing of spent fuel elements 28
  29. 29. Some elements to be prioritised through Parliamentary Initiative 12.400 Parliamentary initiative launched by CESPE-N (Committee for Environment, Spatial Planning and Energy of the National Council) • Expected to enter into force on 1 January 2014 (subject to referendum) Main amendments to Federal Energy Act • Increase in maximum network surcharge to 1.5 cents/kWh • Partial to full refund for electricity-intensive companies (electricity costs ≥ 5%) • Own use (explicitly) laid down in Energy Act • One-time remuneration for small photovoltaic systems below 10 kW; free choice of system for photovoltaic facilities between 10 and 30 kW 29
  30. 30. SwissEnergy programme to support effectiveness of initial package of measures SwissEnergy: • To function as information and advice platform in the energy sector; also as mechanism for networking know-how owners, intermediaries and users in the energy sector • To act as lever for good projects to be developed to market maturity – and as a platform for new ideas • To function as a further education hub in the energy sector Elimination of non-price-related obstacles and associated transaction costs Increase in SwissEnergy budget (from 26 million Swiss francs a year to 55 million) 30
  31. 31. SwissEnergy as an integral component of the Energy Strategy 2050 • All voluntary and other measures aimed at supporting energy efficiency and use of renewable energy in Energy Strategy 2050 to be placed under the umbrella of SwissEnergy. • SwissEnergy is the central platform for networking of all partners (trade and industry, environment, consumption, public sector [cantons, cities, municipalities]). • Focus is on sensitisation, information, advice, training and further education, quality assurance. • Programme budget therefore to be increased (from 26 to 55 million Swiss francs per annum). 31
  32. 32. Socio-economic interdisciplinary research program Energy-Economy-Society (EWG) 32
  33. 33. Current EWG-projects concerning behavioural change • Adaptive and time-of-use pricing schemes for smart technology integration: prospective study in the Leman region (Ordecsys) • Flexi: Potential for a flexible power demand (Planair, University of Neuchatel, EPFL) • An Evaluation of the Impact of Energy Efficiency Policies on Residential Electricity Demand in Switzerland (CEPE, ETH Zurich) • Rebound Effects (econcept) • Energy Elasticities and the Rebound Effect (University of Basel) • Energy-Using Durables: Driving Forces of Purchase Decisions/ Development of a decision model explaining purchase of energy consuming durables (ETH Zürich) 33

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