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Wisdom Of The Crowds
 

Wisdom Of The Crowds

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Wisdom Of The Crowds Wisdom Of The Crowds Presentation Transcript

  • The Wisdom of the Crowds Or The Tyranny of the Mob What’s with all this collective intelligence web 2.0 stuff anyway? David Smith, Business Innovations Manager
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  • Is Harriet Klausner real?
    • She has her own website: http:// harrietklausner.wwwi.com /
    • She has a RealName™ - an Amazon ‘Badge’ that indicates that Amazon has validated the identity of the person (via credit card)
    • The Wall Street Journal wrote about her http://www.opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110006483
    • But if she writes a review for every book she reads (2 per day in her own words) then it’s taken her over 17 years to compile the 12,000 reviews on Amazon.
    • Amazon was founded in 1995…
    • Every book she reviews seems to get 4 or 5 stars (out of five)
    • And in one six day period – I counted over 89 book reviews from her
  • In which Digg gets gamed
  • “ We’ve given the word mob a bad name” Dr Hibbert
  • Can a crowd be wise? Yes: If these conditions are met
      • Diversity of opinion/knowledge : each crowd member needs to have some form of private information about the matter at hand.
      • Independence : individuals in the crowd need to draw their own conclusions without influence from the rest of the crowd.
      • Decentralization : Crowd members can apply local knowledge and thinking to their solution to the problem – think specialization.
      • Aggregation : Collating the above and getting to a sensible collective decision (this is the REALLY hard one!).
  • Good examples of ‘Wise Crowds’
    • Google’s web index – powered by Pagerank ™ which is powered by… YOU
    • The Stock Market (mostly – bubbles and runs are what happens when the crowd stops working to the principles outlined before) – Note the stock market performs well over time
    • Open source software such as Firefox, Linux, Apache
  • What about Publishers?
    • Remember – Aggregation …
    • Without this, the crowd is not wise.
    • Also – How long have you got to wait for a crowd to come up with the ‘wise’ answer? Crowds work at their own pace (peer reviewers anyone?).
    • ‘ The Bottom is Not Enough’ – find this on the wiki a great perspective.
    • And read the book! long form content – not a feature of crowdsourced material (at least, not yet)
  • Questions?