Workforce Planning How to Explode Out Of The Box


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An outline of the steps to take to develop a plan to turnaround the recruiting function before the turnaround begins.

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  • AIRS-Employment Branding Series ©2008, Dr. John Sullivan
  • Workforce Planning How to Explode Out Of The Box

    1. 1. DEVELOPING A WORKFORCE PLAN TO ENABLE EXPLOSIVE, OUT OF THE BOX GROWTH ERE Expo September 11, 2009 © Dr. John Sullivan Advisor to Management, Author and Professor
    2. 2. Dr. John Sullivan’s summary bio <ul><li>Former Chief Talent Officer of Agilent Technologies , the HP spinoff with 43,000 employees </li></ul><ul><li>Has advised over 250 major organizations in 30 different countries. His appeal is so broad, that work has been translated into 23 languages </li></ul><ul><li>Monthly column in Workforce Management Magazine </li></ul><ul><li>Columnist for the Electronic Recruiting Daily </li></ul><ul><li>Author of eight books and more than 750 articles. </li></ul><ul><li>SHRM called him “One of the industries most respected strategists” & the Best Practice Institute honored him as one of the Top 10 Leading Thinkers in HR </li></ul><ul><li> noted that he was “the father of HR Metrics” and Fast Company magazine called him the “Michael Jordan of hiring” </li></ul><ul><li>He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Fortune, the NY Times, the Financial Times, CFO Magazine and have been interviewed by CNN and the CBS and ABC nightly news </li></ul><ul><li>Currently he is a Professor of Management at San Francisco State University and the chief consultant of the management advisory firm DJS </li></ul>
    3. 3. Dr. Sullivan’s current books On-boarding HR Strategy Productivity Metrics Recruiting Employee referrals Employer Branding Recruiting tools
    4. 4. The basic premise for today is… basic premise <ul><li>Can we agree that the turnaround in recruiting is coming… </li></ul><ul><li>And even though we do not know precisely when </li></ul><ul><li>It’s still a wise move to develop a plan that enables you to take the appropriate actions… </li></ul><ul><li>Before the turnaround occurs </li></ul><ul><li>And right when the turnaround starts </li></ul>
    5. 5. Plan “B” is… basic premise <ul><li>Do nothing and spend your time bemoaning the fact that you have no budget </li></ul><ul><li>Looking unprepared and being overwhelmed when the turnaround does occur </li></ul><ul><li>Producing poor or mediocre result s because you waited too late to develop a plan and a strategy </li></ul>
    6. 6. Topics for today <ul><ul><ul><li>A definition of workforce planning </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Common errors made during a downturn </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The 4 phases of a turnaround plan </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Benchmark firms to model after </li></ul></ul></ul>
    7. 7. <ul><li>A definition of </li></ul><ul><li>“ Competitive advantage” workforce planning </li></ul>
    8. 8. Competitive advantage workforce planning defined <ul><ul><ul><li>An integrated … forward looking plan… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>designed to predict (what, when, how much)… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>and then cause action. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>In order to mitigate people problems… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>and take advantage of opportunities to improve the “talent pipeline” … </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>so that you have the needed “people capabilities”… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>to meet business goals… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>and to build a competitive advantage! </li></ul></ul></ul>
    9. 9. <ul><li>Part 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Common Talent Management errors </li></ul><ul><li>made during a downturn </li></ul>
    10. 10. Workforce planning/ recruiting mistakes to avoid basic premise <ul><li>The mistakes organization’s have made : </li></ul><ul><li>This major accounting firm eliminated the majority of their recruiting staff because recruiting now will be so easy, it will be like “shooting fish in a barrel” </li></ul><ul><li>This biotech firm dropped it’s most senior recruiters and only retained the “cheap ones”, because recruiting is merely a transaction </li></ul><ul><li>This government froze all hiring (right when the best talent was available) and furloughed all , even in revenue-generating positions > </li></ul>
    11. 11. <ul><li>Firms have… </li></ul><ul><li>Furloughed and laid off in such a public way that it may have damaged their employer brand </li></ul><ul><li>Reverted back to arrogant, customer damaging “candidate abuse” and “death by interview” </li></ul><ul><li>Assumed they could continue to utilize the old tools … (job boards, ads, static corporate pages) while ignoring mobile phones, texting, social networks, rec. videos, blogs, podcasts, remote video interviews, contests, talent communities etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Been overly optimistic in workforce planning </li></ul>Workforce planning/ recruiting mistakes to avoid
    12. 12. <ul><li>Part 2 </li></ul><ul><li>The four distinct phases of a turnaround plan </li></ul><ul><li>Note: where you the various actions in the phases varies with the firm/ situation </li></ul>
    13. 13. The four phases of a turnaround plan Phase 1 Creating a turnaround plan Phase 2 Actions immediately before the turnaround Actions during the first three months of the turnaround Ongoing operations Phase 3 Phase 4
    14. 14. <ul><li>Phase 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Creating the turnaround plan </li></ul>
    15. 15. <ul><li>Work with the CFO/ COO </li></ul><ul><li>They are the undisputed kings of metrics and budgets </li></ul><ul><li>Make the business case showing the impact on their favorite business areas and their key project approval criteria two examples > </li></ul>Action steps in creating your plan
    16. 16. These factors indicate business impact to a CFO <ul><li>Use the CFO’s favorite words in your bus. case </li></ul><ul><li>Increased revenue / profit/ higher margins </li></ul><ul><li>Higher productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Higher customer retention / satisfaction rates </li></ul><ul><li>Increased market share </li></ul><ul><li>A stronger brand </li></ul><ul><li>Higher stock price </li></ul><ul><li>A higher rate of product innovation </li></ul><ul><li>If you don’t directly impact these, forget it! </li></ul>
    17. 17. Top 10 CFO project approval factors <ul><li>The top factors that get marketing & finance proposals funded: </li></ul><ul><li>High ROI and other business impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Low initial investmen t </li></ul><ul><li>High success rate/ low risk of failure </li></ul><ul><li>Immediate start up </li></ul><ul><li>Short payback period </li></ul><ul><li>It uses accurate results metrics and counting </li></ul><ul><li>No new headcount is required (Or it is reduced) </li></ul><ul><li>“ Consequences of failure ” is built in </li></ul><ul><li>A competitive advantage is created </li></ul><ul><li>Increased productivity (Profit per people dollar) </li></ul>
    18. 18. <ul><li>Additional action steps for creating your turnaround plan </li></ul>
    19. 19. <ul><li>Forecast when the turnaround will begin </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast a range not a single date </li></ul><ul><li>Ask the CFO for their projected dates` </li></ul><ul><li>Look for “leading indicator firms” from previous turnarounds </li></ul><ul><li>Look for “external economic indicators” from previous turnarounds (Housing sales, interest rates, consumer spending, an employment rate etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Identify previous internal precursors or warning signs > </li></ul>Action steps in creating your plan
    20. 20. Precursors indicating you have a surplus of labor <ul><li>Internal precursors of a turnaround in hiring </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in revenue or forecasted orders </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in hours for workers or OT </li></ul><ul><li>Unfreezing raises and/ or promotions </li></ul><ul><li>Travel budgets are unfrozen </li></ul><ul><li>Contingent hiring increases </li></ul><ul><li>Key SBU budgets are increased </li></ul><ul><li>Others? </li></ul><ul><li>Releasing the freeze on hiring comes next </li></ul>
    21. 21. <ul><li>Forecast hiring volume needs </li></ul><ul><li>Find the expected corporate revenue growth rate </li></ul><ul><li>Use the ideal revenue per employee ratio to predict headcount </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast the available volume of internal talent ( Reduced by projected turnover and retirements) </li></ul><ul><li>Develop a “yield model” or funnel (MS, Cisco) </li></ul>Action steps in creating your plan
    22. 22. <ul><li>Consider developing remote work jobs </li></ul><ul><li>To expand the available talent pool </li></ul><ul><li>To increase productivity and cut costs ( Best Buy ) </li></ul>Action steps in creating your plan
    23. 23. <ul><li>Forecast the type of talent needed </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the positions with projected retirements or turnover </li></ul><ul><li>Identify growth regions </li></ul><ul><li>Identify rapid growth business units </li></ul><ul><li>Identify time-to-market requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Identify skill requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the needed innovation rates </li></ul>Action steps in creating your plan
    24. 24. <ul><li>Prioritize your customers for recruiting/retention </li></ul><ul><li>Revenue generating and revenue impact jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Mission-critical jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Key business units </li></ul><ul><li>Key regions </li></ul><ul><li>Key leaders/managers </li></ul><ul><li>Retention - “High risk of leaving” individuals </li></ul><ul><li>Retention - Individuals with “key future skills” </li></ul><ul><li>Retention – Top performers, game changers and innovators </li></ul>Action steps in creating your plan
    25. 25. <ul><li>Any questions at this point </li></ul>
    26. 26. <ul><li>Phase 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Actions to take immediately before (30-90 days) the turnaround begins </li></ul>
    27. 27. <ul><li>Develop a turnaround timetable </li></ul><ul><li>Develop a detailed timeline with milestones. </li></ul><ul><li>Ensure that all possible actions and their owners are on the timeline and in the turnaround plan </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    28. 28. <ul><li>Conduct a competitive analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Analyze your &quot;talent competitors&quot; and their growth plans from the last downturn </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast when they are likely to ramp up hiring </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast which jobs they are likely to initially focus on </li></ul><ul><li>Identify what tools they are likely to use … so that you can counter them with more effective tools </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    29. 29. <ul><li>Begin building a “ talent pool ” </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-identify and begin to build relationships with the 100 “most wanted” game changers in your industry (EA, MS) </li></ul><ul><li>Revisit offer turndowns , semifinalists and “almost qualified” former candidates </li></ul><ul><li>Approach corporate alumni /boomerangs to gauge their interest in returning </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    30. 30. <ul><li>Identify recruiting resources that utilize “ other people’s time ” </li></ul><ul><li>Re-energize your employee referral program (Add exec referrals, college referrals, social network referrals and e -referral cards) </li></ul><ul><li>Encourage attendees and speakers at professional events to bring back “three great names” </li></ul><ul><li>Encourage and educate your employee social network users how to attract potential candidates </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    31. 31. <ul><li>Begin re-building your “ employer brand ” image </li></ul><ul><li>Assess whether candidate “job acceptance criteria” have changed </li></ul><ul><li>Assess your brand negatives online (Google alerts) and among university students (Universum) </li></ul><ul><li>Remember your employer brand is now determined by others (MS), so use the media, social networks, Twitter etc. to have “others” spread the word about your differentiated “well-managed” and “best place to work” factors </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    32. 32. <ul><li>Assess new sourcing tools and strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Select from among the new generation of recruiting strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Referrals and direct sourcing are top </li></ul><ul><li>Utilize your own top performing employees to identify their most utilized communications channels using a “ how would we find you again ” process/survey </li></ul><ul><li>Utilize sampling methods and metrics to identify the tools that actually generate the highest quality candidates, quality of hire and ROI </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    33. 33. <ul><li>Assess your web site </li></ul><ul><li>Be authentic (Test your credibility) </li></ul><ul><li>Allow customized messages </li></ul><ul><li>Video’s are powerful </li></ul><ul><li>Their power is diminishing vs. etc. </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    34. 34. <ul><li>Upgrade internal movement tools </li></ul><ul><li>Identify IM problems , barriers and roadblocks </li></ul><ul><li>Improve the availability of information about “where best to move” internally for increased pay, promotion, job security etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Consider utilizing recruiters to proactively internally move “overdue” employees (Microsoft, Booz Allen) </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    35. 35. <ul><li>Upgrade reference checking processes </li></ul><ul><li>Assess whether lying and misrepresentation rates have increased significantly </li></ul><ul><li>Be aware of identity theft (I’m not really that person) </li></ul><ul><li>Be aware of the “nurse of the year” </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    36. 36. <ul><li>Consider re-assessing your ATS situation </li></ul><ul><li>Be aware of lower-cost options </li></ul><ul><li>Be aware of CRM options </li></ul><ul><li>Be aware of vendor reliability </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    37. 37. <ul><li>Develop effective WP /recruiting metrics </li></ul><ul><li>Accuracy of forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Number of vacancy days for key positions </li></ul><ul><li>On-the-job performance of new-hires </li></ul><ul><li>Retention rate of top-performing new-hires </li></ul><ul><li>Performance turnover </li></ul><ul><li>Diversity rates in professional positions </li></ul><ul><li>Percentage of internal leadership vacancies filled by individuals on the succession plan </li></ul><ul><li>Convert all metrics to dollars of revenue impact </li></ul>Steps just before the turnaround begins
    38. 38. <ul><li>Begin hiring new recruiters </li></ul><ul><li>Develop new assessment tools to determine whether recruiters can utilize next-generation tools </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-identify and build relationships with the best </li></ul><ul><li>Note: Only do select hiring of recruiters before the turnaround actually begins </li></ul><ul><li>Then, hire a percentage as contract recruiters in case this turnaround is a “false start” </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    39. 39. <ul><li>Cherry pick “soon to be recruited” talent </li></ul><ul><li>Estimate job areas where your competitors will initially begin recruiting </li></ul><ul><li>Use competitive intelligence and visit the corporate site/job boards to estimate when competition for talent will increase </li></ul><ul><li>Consider a talent SWAP program (Slide) </li></ul><ul><li>“ Pull the trigger” and hire all you can afford before the competition starts </li></ul>Action steps just before the turnaround begins
    40. 40. <ul><li>Phase 3 </li></ul><ul><li>Actions immediately after the turnaround begins </li></ul>
    41. 41. <ul><li>Fortify retention efforts </li></ul><ul><li>Assume turnover rates will double (Generational turnover) </li></ul><ul><li>Consider a “mass-personalized” retention strategy (vs. a peanut butter strategy) </li></ul><ul><li>Ask key employees “why they stay” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Re-recruit” key employees </li></ul><ul><li>Consider post-exit interviews </li></ul><ul><li>Consider dumping bad-managers </li></ul>Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
    42. 42. <ul><li>Fortify retirement efforts </li></ul><ul><li>Assume retirement rates will change dramatically based on stock valuations and healthcare options (Leadership gap) </li></ul><ul><li>Influence key employees to stay longer </li></ul><ul><li>Accurately predict who is likely to retire </li></ul><ul><li>Consider part time “after retirement” work </li></ul><ul><li>Develop “remote work” options as an alternative </li></ul>Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
    43. 43. <ul><li>Improved candidate closing tools </li></ul><ul><li>Assume that your image may be damaged </li></ul><ul><li>Assume that candidates have changed their acceptance criteria </li></ul><ul><li>During on-boarding ask “what worked” and “what didn’t” </li></ul><ul><li>Determine how housing issues will impact the potential relocations </li></ul>Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
    44. 44. <ul><li>Re-energize and re-educate hiring managers </li></ul><ul><li>Assume that their skills are rusty and their approaches are outdated </li></ul><ul><li>Make the business case to individual managers that it is worth the time to invest in recruiting </li></ul><ul><li>Utilize internal social networks and wiki’ s to educate hiring managers </li></ul>Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
    45. 45. <ul><li>Anticipate potential recruiting problems </li></ul><ul><li>Make a list of anticipated recruiting “growing pains” based on the last recession </li></ul><ul><li>Utilize “if – then scenarios” to “test” to see if your team is ready for all high probability problems and opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Consider offering “talent opportunity” alerts </li></ul><ul><li>Consider technology/ labor alternatives </li></ul>Steps immediately after the turnaround begins
    46. 46. <ul><li>Part 3 </li></ul><ul><li>And finally… benchmark firms to study </li></ul>
    47. 47. <ul><li>Benchmark firms include: </li></ul><ul><li>Capital one – virtual if – then simulations, variable timeframe with SBU, 20 person team </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft – three-year recruiting funding window </li></ul><ul><li>Google – statistical algorithm for forecasting who will quit </li></ul><ul><li>Booz Allen – speeding up internal movement and rotations </li></ul><ul><li>WellPoint – external candidates as part of their succession plan </li></ul>Best practice examples in workforce planning
    48. 48. <ul><li>Benchmark firms include: </li></ul><ul><li>KTL Tencor – the whole business stops for a month to plan, with quarterly revision </li></ul><ul><li>Intel (people roadmap) </li></ul><ul><li>Orcaeyes – a new generation of predictive software </li></ul><ul><li>City of Sunnyvale (Ca) - utilizes five-year workforce planning model </li></ul>Best practice examples in workforce planning
    49. 49. Note <ul><li>I have a 244 page e-book </li></ul><ul><li>THE WORKFORCE PLANNING HANDBOOK </li></ul><ul><li>It is available for free for evaluation purposes. </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>
    50. 50. <ul><li>Did I make you think? </li></ul><ul><li>How about some more questions ? </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>