WhatTheyThink Economic Webinar 9/23/2009 Dr. Joe Webb

WhatTheyThink Economic Outlook Webinar Dr. Joe Webb, Director WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center September 23, 2009 This program will begin at 2 PM EDT

Agenda

The shape of the recovery

V, W, rocket, submarine, or a big fat zero?

Our latest survey
What's ahead for print and media in 2010
Print '09

How did we do? What does it mean?

Dr. Joe's Fall reading list

Stagflation is here

Unemployment 9.7%

Productivity rising faster than GDP, removes need for additional hiring

Inflation being reported only @ Y-Y level

Since December 2008 is a different story
ISM reports show input prices rising

GDP well below post-WW2 levels

Consumption not increasing despite increased government spending
Lower interest rates not working

GDP was sub-par before recession Y/Y GDP Q/Q GDP

Still a problem: money supply How does the Fed get out?

Fed still lending < inflation rate

Is there inflation or not? CPI Y/Y vs. since 12/08

Leading indicators

Exports & imports

Latest recovery indicators

Bottom lines: Employment & Inflation

Unemployment will not improve for a while

White House projects > 10% next year
May not get that bad, but return to 8% may not be until 2011 or 2012
Watch the household survey, not payrolls

Inflation will become more of a recognized problem, pressuring Fed to raise rates

Fed's target has always been 2% maximum, and they are ignoring it in interests of “financial stability,” which is counterproductive

Bottom line: GDP

GDP will be stagnant: -1% to +1.5%

“Breakout” high growth quarter could appear, but will be unsustainable
Paralyzed by tax and regulatory uncertainty, will remain paralyzed once become law
Protectionist turn will continue to limit growth, incomes
Asia, despite erratic growth patterns, will still be primary growth market

Bottom line: Spending

Technology continues to be major focus

Increase productivity without adding staff
Consumer tech changes media allocation

Consumers continue to be cautious

“Savings” will still be characterized as a problem
Personal spending will be basically flat in real terms for 2010
Autos may be critical sign

Bottom Line: The Fed

Reluctant to raise rates; no pre-emptive action against inflation

Raising rates will reduce value of bonds

Dollar will stay relatively weak

Dollar has generally strong correlation with economic growth: strong $, strong growth
US businesses will be attractive targets for acquisition; better deal than Treasuries

Still propping up old assets (housing) and not new investment

So... which letter is it?

U- or W-shaped recovery?

W is more likely

Be careful of the L-shaped non-recovery
Two scenarios:

Late 1970s: bad stagflation
Japan 1990s: bad stagnation
Either one is a bad result

9 quarters of negative real “growth”

Forecasts: 2 models, WTT opinion 2009 = $86.5, 2014 = $58.0

The Latest Survey... Is it true optimism, or “it can't get worse than this”?

Business conditions: Q2 was the bottom

2010 Expectations

Regional conditions and expectations

Printers and social media

What's Ahead for Print and Media? It's time to be social...

Round 2 survey of marketers and their plans for 2010

Center for Media Research: Advertisers Plan to Use in 2010

The new media strategy

Paid advertising in permanent decline

New role for agencies leads to new structure
The “old” publishing business is just that: old

Continuing rise in unpaid initiatives

More PR workers than graphic designers?

Saturation of many communications channels

Lower expectations for each

“Integrated” and “multichannel” assume that there is a coordinated plan

There is none yet: no one knows what the right mix is

The new media mix challenge

One can only view one screen at a time
Multitasking is accepted part of life

Doing it for years, but passively
Active multitasking is newer, more personal

There's only so much time in a day

Internet & connectivity take up more of it
Nudge out traditional media, even in B2B

All media becoming direct marketing media
Consumer control and preference work against traditional communications media
Branding and its consistency is more important than ever

Where Will Future Profits Come From?

Print '09 What's It All Mean?

Print '09: What's it all mean?

For a recession show with no major technology revolution, it was good

Longing for the days of Print97? (Internet bubble)

Is “the right people showed up” (we hear it after every show, no matter where or when it is) correct or just comforting?
Trade shows still an essential part of communications and social strategy

Software/communications/connectivity is tough to display

The “industry” (whatever that means) still needs a central place to physically meet

Dr. Joe's Fall Reading (and Watching) List The new role of print?

Fall Reading List

Watch this or else

Social media video now up to 660K+ views
David Meerman Scott explains social media and how old rules of marketing don't apply online (in just one minute!)

Charts of the Week you may have missed

PR specialists as a percentage of agency employment
“ Ancillary services ” growth in printers 2002-2007
Change in newspaper advertising revenue

Fall Reading List

How Apple gets the rest of the world to do its marketing for it
Facebook hits 300 million users
NYC boutique hotel uses social media in a unique way
Best ways to turn clicks into business
Newspaper charges more for online than it does for print, increases print subs

Fall Reading List

UN wants a global currency ?
Magazines acting more like ad agencies
SmartBrief has superb e-newsletters
New version of ACT! sales software has e-mail campaign and social media capabilities
Center for Media Research article about advertisers' social media plans for 2010

Fall Reading List

The Economist is selling single copies via cell phone , delivers print copy next day
Photo sites now competing with Facebook
CNN on future of libraries
Cynical (but all too accurate?) comic about what “marketing services” means

Fall Reading List