The Print Business of 2015: A Contrarian Perspective Dr. Joe Webb WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center Strategy 09, T...
Agenda <ul><li>What happened to our nice, predictable industry?
No business as usual
Transitional opportunities
It's not whom you know,  it's who knows you
Opportunities? There are some? </li></ul>
Where We Are <ul><li>Media choice saturation  </li><ul><li>But still only 168 hours a week </li></ul><li>Advertising-based...
Information seeker/recipient in charge </li><ul><li>Publishers/content owners hate that
Content is NOT king, distribution is </li></ul><li>Weak economics stimulate speed of change </li></ul>
 
Canada Forecast as of 11/09
 
 
What's Changing <ul><li>Advertising gives way to public relations </li><ul><li>Search engines changed everything
Shift from finding customers to getting customers to find you </li></ul><li>Community loses its geography </li><ul><li>Fac...
Hard core users vs occasional vs lurkers </li></ul></ul>
Change is Faster than it Seems <ul><li><3 years ago... </li><ul><li>no iPhone
no Twitter
Facebook was obscure web site </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In mid-2009 </li><ul><li>30+ million iPhones
50 million+ 7/2009 Twitter users who accessed site
250+ million Facebook users
Facebook Mobile 65+ million users 8/2009 </li></ul></ul>
Recessions Intensify Rate of Media Change
What's the Problem? <ul><li>Print businesses detect business decline, have trouble grasping the media shift
Capital equipment base purchased based on market assumptions of a different kind </li><ul><li>1999 equipment in a 2009 mar...
Where's the Opportunity? <ul><li>New media have lower cost, but have  staying power of morning fog </li><ul><li>Key to new...
Barrier to new media success: time </li></ul><li>New devices, formats, applications </li><ul><li>Staying on top of the mar...
There Will Be No “Business as Usual”: Print Searches for a Role in a Dynamic Communications Marketplace
The Old Advice is … OLD! <ul><li>1970s advice </li><ul><li>Carve out a business niche where they gain a distinct advantage...
Keep up to date with new equipment
Gear their entire company to support the niche they  selected and developed
Recognize the need  for motivation and development of personnel </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2000s advice </li><ul><li>Niches ha...
Marketing life of equipment is shorter than mechanical life, and more important
Always explore new niches, applications, and geographies
Create networks of flexible workers and outside specialists </li></ul></ul>
Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #1: Stay ahead of the clients; ignore the competitors
Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #2: Traditions and mismatch of capital with marketplace  limit the ability to imple...
Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #3: Focus on client's total communications ROI, especially for  non-print initiatives
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Dr Joe Strategy09 111109 Final

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Dr Joe Strategy09 111109 Final

  1. 2. The Print Business of 2015: A Contrarian Perspective Dr. Joe Webb WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center Strategy 09, T oronto, November 11, 2009
  2. 3. Agenda <ul><li>What happened to our nice, predictable industry?
  3. 4. No business as usual
  4. 5. Transitional opportunities
  5. 6. It's not whom you know, it's who knows you
  6. 7. Opportunities? There are some? </li></ul>
  7. 8. Where We Are <ul><li>Media choice saturation </li><ul><li>But still only 168 hours a week </li></ul><li>Advertising-based media undermined
  8. 9. Information seeker/recipient in charge </li><ul><li>Publishers/content owners hate that
  9. 10. Content is NOT king, distribution is </li></ul><li>Weak economics stimulate speed of change </li></ul>
  10. 12. Canada Forecast as of 11/09
  11. 15. What's Changing <ul><li>Advertising gives way to public relations </li><ul><li>Search engines changed everything
  12. 16. Shift from finding customers to getting customers to find you </li></ul><li>Community loses its geography </li><ul><li>Facebook, LinkedIn, others, create new ways to interact without proximity
  13. 17. Hard core users vs occasional vs lurkers </li></ul></ul>
  14. 18. Change is Faster than it Seems <ul><li><3 years ago... </li><ul><li>no iPhone
  15. 19. no Twitter
  16. 20. Facebook was obscure web site </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In mid-2009 </li><ul><li>30+ million iPhones
  17. 21. 50 million+ 7/2009 Twitter users who accessed site
  18. 22. 250+ million Facebook users
  19. 23. Facebook Mobile 65+ million users 8/2009 </li></ul></ul>
  20. 24. Recessions Intensify Rate of Media Change
  21. 25. What's the Problem? <ul><li>Print businesses detect business decline, have trouble grasping the media shift
  22. 26. Capital equipment base purchased based on market assumptions of a different kind </li><ul><li>1999 equipment in a 2009 marketplace? </li></ul><li>Media use change is attributed to generational factors </li><ul><li>Consumer new media viewed as not having B2B applications </li></ul></ul>
  23. 27. Where's the Opportunity? <ul><li>New media have lower cost, but have staying power of morning fog </li><ul><li>Key to new media success: relentless activity
  24. 28. Barrier to new media success: time </li></ul><li>New devices, formats, applications </li><ul><li>Staying on top of the market with client-specific solutions while your client cannot </li></ul><li>A steady hand in a chaotic marketplace </li></ul>
  25. 29. There Will Be No “Business as Usual”: Print Searches for a Role in a Dynamic Communications Marketplace
  26. 30. The Old Advice is … OLD! <ul><li>1970s advice </li><ul><li>Carve out a business niche where they gain a distinct advantage over competition
  27. 31. Keep up to date with new equipment
  28. 32. Gear their entire company to support the niche they selected and developed
  29. 33. Recognize the need for motivation and development of personnel </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2000s advice </li><ul><li>Niches have a risk to their higher payback, and niches can disappear quickly
  30. 34. Marketing life of equipment is shorter than mechanical life, and more important
  31. 35. Always explore new niches, applications, and geographies
  32. 36. Create networks of flexible workers and outside specialists </li></ul></ul>
  33. 37. Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #1: Stay ahead of the clients; ignore the competitors
  34. 38. Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #2: Traditions and mismatch of capital with marketplace limit the ability to implement change
  35. 39. Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #3: Focus on client's total communications ROI, especially for non-print initiatives
  36. 40. The Printing Business of 2015
  37. 41. The Printing Business of 2015 <ul><li>Printing is one means among many to maximize the value of a total media plan
  38. 42. The print business is the focus, not print
  39. 43. The “printer” is the gateway to accomplish otherwise time-consuming tasks that cannot be provided by one supplier </li></ul>
  40. 44. The Printing Business of 2015 <ul><li>The “hub” for managing the... </li><ul><li>creation
  41. 45. coordination
  42. 46. deployment
  43. 47. measurement, and
  44. 48. management of... </li></ul><li>Communications Logistics </li></ul>
  45. 49. It's NOT “Ancillary Services” <ul><li>Services that if added may one day stand on their own with high value-added </li><ul><li>Not just “billable tasks”
  46. 50. Strategic, not opportunistic </li></ul><li>Retainer-based content development, management, deployment, and measurement services
  47. 51. Why task-based “ancillary services” are tempting </li><ul><li>Prices keeping up with inflation
  48. 52. Non-print growing +1%/yr while print –2-3%/yr </li></ul></ul>
  49. 53. Multichannel has Multichallenges <ul><li>Consistency and persistence are essential virtues
  50. 54. Best prospects: small- & mid-size businesses </li><ul><li>Printers become outsourced communications providers </li></ul><li>Retainer-based, not task-based
  51. 55. Staffing is critical issue </li><ul><li>Create network of freelance practitioners </li></ul></ul>
  52. 56. Print was Outbound, Now it's Inbound, Too <ul><li>Monitor new media initiatives for clients as part of service
  53. 57. Print's ROI was always nebulous, except for direct mail </li><ul><li>Make print measurable with pURLs, other methods
  54. 58. Turn all print materials into direct response vehicles with QR codes </li></ul></ul>
  55. 59. Can’t get the big e-mail payback unless you keep lists clean
  56. 60. How to do it: Simplified Case <ul><li>E-mail blast from well-designed data base </li><ul><li>Has mailing addresses and e-mail addresses </li></ul><li>Collect bounces next day and mail post card </li><ul><li>“ We recently tried to contact you, but your e-mail address did not work… you missed our latest sale” </li><ul><li>Mention new product in past category purchase, etc. </li></ul><li>pURL or QR to go to record update page
  57. 61. Incentive to update </li></ul><li>Constantly recruit additional targets </li></ul>
  58. 62. What is a Printing Business? <ul><li>Moving from billing for tasks to billing for results </li><ul><li>Recession: get paid for cost reductions in other places
  59. 63. Growth: get paid for increasing revenues </li></ul><li>Time </li><ul><li>diligence, timeliness, predictability
  60. 64. media more complex, like vapor/fog </li></ul></ul>
  61. 65. The New Communications <ul><li>New-ness
  62. 66. Now-ness
  63. 67. Relentless
  64. 68. Consistent
  65. 69. Ubiquitous
  66. 70. Reinforcing
  67. 71. Collaborative </li></ul>
  68. 72. Media Choice Opportunities <ul><li>Recipient / Seeker choice creates content deployment nightmare
  69. 73. Content creator has to make content “work” in multiple formats in viewability and intelligibility
  70. 74. Simultaneous deployment replaces serial deployment </li></ul>
  71. 75. Media Choice Can be Boon for Print Businesses
  72. 76. Getting Ready... There's Still Time
  73. 77. Stay on top of new media <ul><li>IAB Canada
  74. 78. Smartbrief.com </li><ul><li>Many free e-newsletters for social media, interactive media, advertising businesses
  75. 79. Also e-newsletters about small business, and many other industries, topics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Canadian Public Relations Society
  76. 80. ad:tech shows </li><ul><li>San Francisco 4/20-22/2010
  77. 81. Chicago 9/09
  78. 82. New York 11/09 </li></ul></ul>
  79. 83. Read These Before 12/31
  80. 84. How the Print Business Grows <ul><li>Worry about the print business, not print media
  81. 85. Print’s total costs must continue to fall
  82. 86. Print’s value will be judged in relation to how it makes total media expense effective </li><ul><li>make the other media successful, and print becomes part of new media </li></ul><li>New media become jumping-off point for new print consumers </li></ul>
  83. 87. Do As I Say... and as I Do <ul>A “new” print business that cannot execute new media for its own business will not have credibility selling those services to others </ul>
  84. 88. If New Media's Not for You... <ul><li>There are opportunities in “offline media” services </li><ul><li>Don't pretend to be new media when you're not; use the tools, don't sell them
  85. 89. Be prepared to outthink and outlast other printers
  86. 90. Work toward smaller order sizes, more orders
  87. 91. Expand geographical coverage
  88. 92. Pursue all outsource and “trade” work </li></ul></ul>
  89. 93. The Print Business of 2020 <ul><li>Won't be called a printer
  90. 94. Won't be called communications
  91. 95. Will be a content management and deployment business
  92. 96. Will be heavily involved in motion media
  93. 97. May not have/need a facility with its own printing equipment, but share central sites
  94. 98. May not have employees other than connected ownership and professionals </li></ul>
  95. 99. QUESTIONS! Dr. Joe Webb WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center
  96. 100. Download the Book: Free PDF http://tinyurl.com/drjoerenew <ul><li>7 Strategies for Print Businesses
  97. 101. Changing the culture of the printing business
  98. 102. How some common sales management practices undermine strategy change </li></ul>

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