The Print Business of 2015: A Contrarian Perspective Dr. Joe Webb WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center Strategy 09, T oronto, November 11, 2009

Agenda What happened to our nice, predictable industry? No business as usual Transitional opportunities It's not whom you know, it's who knows you Opportunities? There are some?

What happened to our nice, predictable industry?

No business as usual

Transitional opportunities

It's not whom you know, it's who knows you

Opportunities? There are some?

Where We Are Media choice saturation But still only 168 hours a week Advertising-based media undermined Information seeker/recipient in charge Publishers/content owners hate that Content is NOT king, distribution is Weak economics stimulate speed of change

Media choice saturation

But still only 168 hours a week

Advertising-based media undermined

Information seeker/recipient in charge

Publishers/content owners hate that

Content is NOT king, distribution is

Weak economics stimulate speed of change

Canada Forecast as of 11/09

What's Changing Advertising gives way to public relations Search engines changed everything Shift from finding customers to getting customers to find you Community loses its geography Facebook, LinkedIn, others, create new ways to interact without proximity Hard core users vs occasional vs lurkers

Advertising gives way to public relations

Search engines changed everything

Shift from finding customers to getting customers to find you

Community loses its geography

Facebook, LinkedIn, others, create new ways to interact without proximity

Hard core users vs occasional vs lurkers

Change is Faster than it Seems <3 years ago... no iPhone no Twitter Facebook was obscure web site In mid-2009 30+ million iPhones 50 million+ 7/2009 Twitter users who accessed site 250+ million Facebook users Facebook Mobile 65+ million users 8/2009

<3 years ago...

no iPhone

no Twitter

Facebook was obscure web site

In mid-2009

30+ million iPhones

50 million+ 7/2009 Twitter users who accessed site

250+ million Facebook users

Facebook Mobile 65+ million users 8/2009

Recessions Intensify Rate of Media Change

What's the Problem? Print businesses detect business decline, have trouble grasping the media shift Capital equipment base purchased based on market assumptions of a different kind 1999 equipment in a 2009 marketplace? Media use change is attributed to generational factors Consumer new media viewed as not having B2B applications

Print businesses detect business decline, have trouble grasping the media shift

Capital equipment base purchased based on market assumptions of a different kind

1999 equipment in a 2009 marketplace?

Media use change is attributed to generational factors

Consumer new media viewed as not having B2B applications

Where's the Opportunity? New media have lower cost, but have staying power of morning fog Key to new media success: relentless activity Barrier to new media success: time New devices, formats, applications Staying on top of the market with client-specific solutions while your client cannot A steady hand in a chaotic marketplace

New media have lower cost, but have staying power of morning fog

Key to new media success: relentless activity

Barrier to new media success: time

New devices, formats, applications

Staying on top of the market with client-specific solutions while your client cannot

A steady hand in a chaotic marketplace

There Will Be No “Business as Usual”: Print Searches for a Role in a Dynamic Communications Marketplace

The Old Advice is … OLD! 1970s advice Carve out a business niche where they gain a distinct advantage over competition Keep up to date with new equipment Gear their entire company to support the niche they selected and developed Recognize the need for motivation and development of personnel 2000s advice Niches have a risk to their higher payback, and niches can disappear quickly Marketing life of equipment is shorter than mechanical life, and more important Always explore new niches, applications, and geographies Create networks of flexible workers and outside specialists

1970s advice

Carve out a business niche where they gain a distinct advantage over competition

Keep up to date with new equipment

Gear their entire company to support the niche they selected and developed

Recognize the need for motivation and development of personnel

2000s advice

Niches have a risk to their higher payback, and niches can disappear quickly

Marketing life of equipment is shorter than mechanical life, and more important

Always explore new niches, applications, and geographies

Create networks of flexible workers and outside specialists

Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #1: Stay ahead of the clients; ignore the competitors

Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #2: Traditions and mismatch of capital with marketplace limit the ability to implement change

Renewing the Printing Industry Concept #3: Focus on client's total communications ROI, especially for non-print initiatives

The Printing Business of 2015

The Printing Business of 2015 Printing is one means among many to maximize the value of a total media plan The print business is the focus, not print The “printer” is the gateway to accomplish otherwise time-consuming tasks that cannot be provided by one supplier

Printing is one means among many to maximize the value of a total media plan

The print business is the focus, not print

The “printer” is the gateway to accomplish otherwise time-consuming tasks that cannot be provided by one supplier

The Printing Business of 2015 The “hub” for managing the... creation coordination deployment measurement, and management of... Communications Logistics

The “hub” for managing the...

creation

coordination

deployment

measurement, and

management of...

Communications Logistics

It's NOT “Ancillary Services” Services that if added may one day stand on their own with high value-added Not just “billable tasks” Strategic, not opportunistic Retainer-based content development, management, deployment, and measurement services Why task-based “ancillary services” are tempting Prices keeping up with inflation Non-print growing +1%/yr while print –2-3%/yr

Services that if added may one day stand on their own with high value-added

Not just “billable tasks”

Strategic, not opportunistic

Retainer-based content development, management, deployment, and measurement services

Why task-based “ancillary services” are tempting

Prices keeping up with inflation

Non-print growing +1%/yr while print –2-3%/yr

Multichannel has Multichallenges Consistency and persistence are essential virtues Best prospects: small- & mid-size businesses Printers become outsourced communications providers Retainer-based, not task-based Staffing is critical issue Create network of freelance practitioners

Consistency and persistence are essential virtues

Best prospects: small- & mid-size businesses

Printers become outsourced communications providers

Retainer-based, not task-based

Staffing is critical issue

Create network of freelance practitioners

Print was Outbound, Now it's Inbound, Too Monitor new media initiatives for clients as part of service Print's ROI was always nebulous, except for direct mail Make print measurable with pURLs, other methods Turn all print materials into direct response vehicles with QR codes

Monitor new media initiatives for clients as part of service

Print's ROI was always nebulous, except for direct mail

Make print measurable with pURLs, other methods

Turn all print materials into direct response vehicles with QR codes

Can’t get the big e-mail payback unless you keep lists clean

How to do it: Simplified Case E-mail blast from well-designed data base Has mailing addresses and e-mail addresses Collect bounces next day and mail post card “ We recently tried to contact you, but your e-mail address did not work… you missed our latest sale” Mention new product in past category purchase, etc. pURL or QR to go to record update page Incentive to update Constantly recruit additional targets

E-mail blast from well-designed data base

Has mailing addresses and e-mail addresses

Collect bounces next day and mail post card

“ We recently tried to contact you, but your e-mail address did not work… you missed our latest sale”

Mention new product in past category purchase, etc.

pURL or QR to go to record update page

Incentive to update

Constantly recruit additional targets

What is a Printing Business? Moving from billing for tasks to billing for results Recession: get paid for cost reductions in other places Growth: get paid for increasing revenues Time diligence, timeliness, predictability media more complex, like vapor/fog

Moving from billing for tasks to billing for results

Recession: get paid for cost reductions in other places

Growth: get paid for increasing revenues

Time

diligence, timeliness, predictability

media more complex, like vapor/fog

The New Communications New-ness Now-ness Relentless Consistent Ubiquitous Reinforcing Collaborative

New-ness

Now-ness

Relentless

Consistent

Ubiquitous

Reinforcing

Collaborative

Media Choice Opportunities Recipient / Seeker choice creates content deployment nightmare Content creator has to make content “work” in multiple formats in viewability and intelligibility Simultaneous deployment replaces serial deployment

Recipient / Seeker choice creates content deployment nightmare

Content creator has to make content “work” in multiple formats in viewability and intelligibility

Simultaneous deployment replaces serial deployment

Media Choice Can be Boon for Print Businesses

Getting Ready... There's Still Time

Stay on top of new media IAB Canada Smartbrief.com Many free e-newsletters for social media, interactive media, advertising businesses Also e-newsletters about small business, and many other industries, topics Canadian Public Relations Society ad:tech shows San Francisco 4/20-22/2010 Chicago 9/09 New York 11/09

IAB Canada

Smartbrief.com

Many free e-newsletters for social media, interactive media, advertising businesses

Also e-newsletters about small business, and many other industries, topics

Canadian Public Relations Society

ad:tech shows

San Francisco 4/20-22/2010

Chicago 9/09

New York 11/09

Read These Before 12/31

How the Print Business Grows Worry about the print business, not print media Print’s total costs must continue to fall Print’s value will be judged in relation to how it makes total media expense effective make the other media successful, and print becomes part of new media New media become jumping-off point for new print consumers

Worry about the print business, not print media

Print’s total costs must continue to fall

Print’s value will be judged in relation to how it makes total media expense effective

make the other media successful, and print becomes part of new media

New media become jumping-off point for new print consumers

Do As I Say... and as I Do A “new” print business that cannot execute new media for its own business will not have credibility selling those services to others

If New Media's Not for You... There are opportunities in “offline media” services Don't pretend to be new media when you're not; use the tools, don't sell them Be prepared to outthink and outlast other printers Work toward smaller order sizes, more orders Expand geographical coverage Pursue all outsource and “trade” work

There are opportunities in “offline media” services

Don't pretend to be new media when you're not; use the tools, don't sell them

Be prepared to outthink and outlast other printers

Work toward smaller order sizes, more orders

Expand geographical coverage

Pursue all outsource and “trade” work

The Print Business of 2020 Won't be called a printer Won't be called communications Will be a content management and deployment business Will be heavily involved in motion media May not have/need a facility with its own printing equipment, but share central sites May not have employees other than connected ownership and professionals

Won't be called a printer

Won't be called communications

Will be a content management and deployment business

Will be heavily involved in motion media

May not have/need a facility with its own printing equipment, but share central sites

May not have employees other than connected ownership and professionals

QUESTIONS! Dr. Joe Webb WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center

Download the Book: Free PDF http://tinyurl.com/drjoerenew 7 Strategies for Print Businesses Changing the culture of the printing business How some common sales management practices undermine strategy change

7 Strategies for Print Businesses

Changing the culture of the printing business

How some common sales management practices undermine strategy change