Dr Joe Graph Expo091107
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Dr Joe Graph Expo091107 Dr Joe Graph Expo091107 Presentation Transcript

  • Presented by: Dr. Joseph Webb, Director WhatTheyThink.com Economics & Research Center Graph Expo, Chicago September 11, 2007 Graphic Arts 2017: A Speculative Look Ten Years from Today
  • Agenda
    • A look at the economy and commercial print
    • Graphic Arts 2017
    • The 9:40 Pause
    • Questions and Answers
    • before we begin…
  • Audio Chart of the Week - FREE
    • Chart of Industry Trend or Topic
      • Weekly
      • 3 to 6 minutes
      • Wide range of topics from content creation and technology to end-use markets and more
    • Use the chart in internal presentations
  • Management, Marketing, and Economic Notes - FREE
    • “ Blog”-like comments about latest news
      • A lot happens between weekly columns
      • Sometimes I just vent
    • “ Road Warrior”
      • Comments and recommendations about personal computing and communications technologies
  • Economics & Research Center - FREE
    • ERC Industry Snapshot
      • Updated just hours after new industry data are published
    • Data
      • Shipments, capacity
      • Imports/exports
      • Employment
      • Postal weights and pieces
    • Markets
      • Content creation & printing
      • Paper
      • US & Canada
  • Wednesday, September 26 Webinar
    • The economy and the subprime aftermath
    • Forecast for Q4-07, 2008, and 2009
    • Hot and cold: trends that are, and aren’t, driving the business
    • What we know isn't so: a look at industry common wisdom. Is it still wise?
    • .... and Dr Joe's Fall Reading List
    • Signup online at WhatTheyThink.com
  • The Economy & the Outlook for Print
  • The Overall Economy
    • Real GDP Y/Y basis
      • Q1-06: 3.31%
      • Q2-06: 3.23%
      • Q3-06: 2.37%
      • Q4-06: 2.60%
      • Q1-07: 1.55%
      • Q2-07: 1.92%
  • Economic Conditions
    • “ Subprime” fallout
      • Froth is out of credit markets
      • Discipline to lending?
      • Housing stimulus to economy disappears for minimum of 18 months, possibly more
      • Budget cuts in financial institutions
        • Search for cost savings
    • Future inflation worries ease
    • No recession
      • No significant growth, either
    • Business investment cools
    • Overseas markets strong over long term, always volatile
    • Future tax rates still uncertain
    • Fed is about to ease (9/18)
  • Employment in Key Segments
  • Do Commodity Prices Matter? 1967 CPI = 624 494.6 917.9
  • Commerce Department has Updated Printing Shipments Data from 2003-2007
  •  
  • Old Habits Die Hard: Stop Looking for GDP as Indicator of Printing Shipments
  • Updated Print Forecasts
    • Conservative model:
      • 2007: $103.1B
      • 2008: $102.1B
      • 2009: $101.2B
    • Aggressive model:
      • 2007: $96.8B
      • 2008: $87.6B
      • 2009: $80.8B
    • GDP model using +2.5% GDP growth rate):
      • 2007: $101.1B
      • 2008: $99.0B
      • 2009: $96.8B
    • WTT 2007 ERC forecast
      • $102.0B, -$1.5B, -1.5%
      • Likely to be revised down
      • No political campaign bump
      • Slower growth of direct mail and direct marketing
    • 2008: $102B
      • The “last” print campaign?
    • 2009: $ 99B
  • Encouraging Profits Report for Q2-07 It’s Not What You Make It’s What You Keep
  • Graphic Arts 2017 … Finally!
  • Agenda: 2017
    • Economic, demographic, technological trends that will create the graphic arts and content creation business
    • How many printers? workers? designers? publishers?
    • What communications needs will emerge, grow, decline?
    • Where will jobs and opportunities be?
    • Getting ready
  • Advertising Age: Lies, Damned Lies and Ad Predictions
    • As any media researcher will tell you, the concept of using benchmark reports and forecasts is intended to serve as less of a crystal ball and more of a hype-driver for emerging technologies and market trends.
      • Sept. 3, 2007 issue
  • Steve Forbert: Sounds Like an Executive ?
    • I don't wanna see no fortune teller,
    • I'd rather do without prediction
    • I'll see it when it's all around me,
    • Hey, what's the hurry?
    • Sweet Love that You Give
    • Jackrabbit Slim, October 1979
  • Forecasting is not very difficult, because it’s about the future
    • Forecasting long-term and very short term are easy
    • Timing is always the most difficult to predict; underlying trends are usually right
    • Easy to forget that all actions have reactions
      • Those penalized by change have a habit of adapting to new situations
    • Not all things can be foreseen; but context can
    • Change is residue of thousands and millions of daily buyer-seller decisions, not the acts of a single company or even a single industry
    • Just because it is possible does not mean it is marketable
  • Why Forecasting with Quantitative Models Alone Can Be Dangerous
    • Pink line: Forecast based on actual data ending in 2000
    • Blue line: what actually happened
  • The Best Forecasts are Always Judgmental
    • Statistical forecasts or forecast models are springboards for discussion
    • Remember, this is “a speculative look”
    • Almost anything can be justified by a consultant with a good vocabulary
  • Economic trends
    • U.S. government policies that constrict long term growth and wealth creation seem certain post-2008 election, leading to slow growth economy, stagnant business investment
    • Developing countries, even “old Europe” decreasing taxes, especially corporate rates
    • Communications reduce “friction” between economies, increasing transactions, putting new emphasis on logistics and transportation
    • Emerging economies significantly increasing wealth beyond their natural resources
      • More sophisticated monetary systems
      • Increase in service economies
    • Economic and monetary policy influence of U.S. and Europe ebbs
  • Technological Trends
    • Rampant connectivity at declining costs
    • Richer communications, with more video
    • Mobility is habit-forming
      • Supercomputers in one’s hand, and nobody knows it
    • Storage becomes “free”
    • Instant access to information and content, anywhere, anytime, anybody, any format, with printing optional
    • E-commerce a normal course of business for everything
  • Considerations
    • Technology and adoption do not move in lockstep
      • More alternatives chase same resources, solve same problems
    • Technology and profits are rarely simultaneous
    • All technologies are two-sided
      • Internet competes with print
      • Creates and expands opportunities for print businesses
  • U.S. Population Trends Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • Content Creation Markets
  • Technologies Re-Shape Publishing
  • Publishing’s Future
    • Monetization of content remains a serious issue
      • Critical beyond publishing; content needs to create value
    • Contrary to popular belief, the Internet has limited space
      • “ Shelf space” is part of the Internet, too
    • Small publishing grows and grows and grows
    • Redefinition of publishing as a business
      • Severe downsizing of infrastructure
  • Is This Too Optimistic for Newspapers?
    • Monetizing content remains mysterious and unpredictable
    • Newspapers become magazines; magazines become newspapers
    • The “deadline” or “press time” grows meaningless
  • Where Have All the Printers Gone?
    • On-demand printing is a weak competitor to computer screens
    • Mobile computing of all types continues to reduce reliance on print
    • Are there really opportunities in non-print media?
    • Digital printing has market value because of its inherent integration with communications and information storage and transmission
  • Evolving Nature of Business
    • Globalness for more aspects of business, even the smallest
      • “ Digital proximity”
    • Production is still becoming global, creation and content has not; that will change
    • Increase in global specialization of labor, capital and ideas
      • Interconnectedness becomes more evident
  • Rising Global Wealth Effects
    • Decreased birth rates
    • Increased interest in environmental issues
    • Longer & healthier lifespans
    • Increases in services compared to manufacturing
    • Increasing demands for information, of greater variety and wider means of access
  • What communications needs will emerge, grow, decline?
    • “ Managing” content is not the issue; deploying content is
    • Reaching desired targets is not as important as having targets find the content
      • Search is a natural way of finding information now
      • Social networking “fad” will pass; easy to confuse the tool with a centuries old trend to associate with others of similar nature
      • New trend: lifelong social communications? – “digital neighbors”
    • Bewildering number of access devices is not a call for standardization, but a bewildering number of standards
      • iPhone is culmination of past events, a new building block
  • Where will jobs and opportunities be?
    • Decrease in sales jobs now evident in economic data
    • “Internationalizing” content and deployment
    • Content creation with new tools, in new formats, in new markets: “newness” is always a market-changing trend
    • Specialization in multiple media applications, implementation and deployment
  • Getting ready
    • Create and encourage curiosity
    • Play in the new communications and new media
      • Be the gadget guru for others
      • It’s only cool if you can create unforeseen uses
    • Media rules are being re-written every day
      • The Geico-ization of media strategy
    • Rules may change, but the objectives do not
      • Long-term profitability and innovation never go out of style
  • THANK YOU! Questions?
  • In Search of Dr. Joe… and others…
    • WhatTheyThink.com
      • “ Mondays with Dr. Joe”
      • Economics & Research Center (ERC)
      • ERC Notes
      • ERC Industry Snapshot
    • PrintCEOBlog.com
    • Economic and other webinars