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    Dr Joe Graph Expo091107 Dr Joe Graph Expo091107 Presentation Transcript

    • Presented by: Dr. Joseph Webb, Director WhatTheyThink.com Economics & Research Center Graph Expo, Chicago September 11, 2007 Graphic Arts 2017: A Speculative Look Ten Years from Today
    • Agenda
      • A look at the economy and commercial print
      • Graphic Arts 2017
      • The 9:40 Pause
      • Questions and Answers
      • before we begin…
    • Audio Chart of the Week - FREE
      • Chart of Industry Trend or Topic
        • Weekly
        • 3 to 6 minutes
        • Wide range of topics from content creation and technology to end-use markets and more
      • Use the chart in internal presentations
    • Management, Marketing, and Economic Notes - FREE
      • “ Blog”-like comments about latest news
        • A lot happens between weekly columns
        • Sometimes I just vent
      • “ Road Warrior”
        • Comments and recommendations about personal computing and communications technologies
    • Economics & Research Center - FREE
      • ERC Industry Snapshot
        • Updated just hours after new industry data are published
      • Data
        • Shipments, capacity
        • Imports/exports
        • Employment
        • Postal weights and pieces
      • Markets
        • Content creation & printing
        • Paper
        • US & Canada
    • Wednesday, September 26 Webinar
      • The economy and the subprime aftermath
      • Forecast for Q4-07, 2008, and 2009
      • Hot and cold: trends that are, and aren’t, driving the business
      • What we know isn't so: a look at industry common wisdom. Is it still wise?
      • .... and Dr Joe's Fall Reading List
      • Signup online at WhatTheyThink.com
    • The Economy & the Outlook for Print
    • The Overall Economy
      • Real GDP Y/Y basis
        • Q1-06: 3.31%
        • Q2-06: 3.23%
        • Q3-06: 2.37%
        • Q4-06: 2.60%
        • Q1-07: 1.55%
        • Q2-07: 1.92%
    • Economic Conditions
      • “ Subprime” fallout
        • Froth is out of credit markets
        • Discipline to lending?
        • Housing stimulus to economy disappears for minimum of 18 months, possibly more
        • Budget cuts in financial institutions
          • Search for cost savings
      • Future inflation worries ease
      • No recession
        • No significant growth, either
      • Business investment cools
      • Overseas markets strong over long term, always volatile
      • Future tax rates still uncertain
      • Fed is about to ease (9/18)
    • Employment in Key Segments
    • Do Commodity Prices Matter? 1967 CPI = 624 494.6 917.9
    • Commerce Department has Updated Printing Shipments Data from 2003-2007
    • Old Habits Die Hard: Stop Looking for GDP as Indicator of Printing Shipments
    • Updated Print Forecasts
      • Conservative model:
        • 2007: $103.1B
        • 2008: $102.1B
        • 2009: $101.2B
      • Aggressive model:
        • 2007: $96.8B
        • 2008: $87.6B
        • 2009: $80.8B
      • GDP model using +2.5% GDP growth rate):
        • 2007: $101.1B
        • 2008: $99.0B
        • 2009: $96.8B
      • WTT 2007 ERC forecast
        • $102.0B, -$1.5B, -1.5%
        • Likely to be revised down
        • No political campaign bump
        • Slower growth of direct mail and direct marketing
      • 2008: $102B
        • The “last” print campaign?
      • 2009: $ 99B
    • Encouraging Profits Report for Q2-07 It’s Not What You Make It’s What You Keep
    • Graphic Arts 2017 … Finally!
    • Agenda: 2017
      • Economic, demographic, technological trends that will create the graphic arts and content creation business
      • How many printers? workers? designers? publishers?
      • What communications needs will emerge, grow, decline?
      • Where will jobs and opportunities be?
      • Getting ready
    • Advertising Age: Lies, Damned Lies and Ad Predictions
      • As any media researcher will tell you, the concept of using benchmark reports and forecasts is intended to serve as less of a crystal ball and more of a hype-driver for emerging technologies and market trends.
        • Sept. 3, 2007 issue
    • Steve Forbert: Sounds Like an Executive ?
      • I don't wanna see no fortune teller,
      • I'd rather do without prediction
      • I'll see it when it's all around me,
      • Hey, what's the hurry?
      • Sweet Love that You Give
      • Jackrabbit Slim, October 1979
    • Forecasting is not very difficult, because it’s about the future
      • Forecasting long-term and very short term are easy
      • Timing is always the most difficult to predict; underlying trends are usually right
      • Easy to forget that all actions have reactions
        • Those penalized by change have a habit of adapting to new situations
      • Not all things can be foreseen; but context can
      • Change is residue of thousands and millions of daily buyer-seller decisions, not the acts of a single company or even a single industry
      • Just because it is possible does not mean it is marketable
    • Why Forecasting with Quantitative Models Alone Can Be Dangerous
      • Pink line: Forecast based on actual data ending in 2000
      • Blue line: what actually happened
    • The Best Forecasts are Always Judgmental
      • Statistical forecasts or forecast models are springboards for discussion
      • Remember, this is “a speculative look”
      • Almost anything can be justified by a consultant with a good vocabulary
    • Economic trends
      • U.S. government policies that constrict long term growth and wealth creation seem certain post-2008 election, leading to slow growth economy, stagnant business investment
      • Developing countries, even “old Europe” decreasing taxes, especially corporate rates
      • Communications reduce “friction” between economies, increasing transactions, putting new emphasis on logistics and transportation
      • Emerging economies significantly increasing wealth beyond their natural resources
        • More sophisticated monetary systems
        • Increase in service economies
      • Economic and monetary policy influence of U.S. and Europe ebbs
    • Technological Trends
      • Rampant connectivity at declining costs
      • Richer communications, with more video
      • Mobility is habit-forming
        • Supercomputers in one’s hand, and nobody knows it
      • Storage becomes “free”
      • Instant access to information and content, anywhere, anytime, anybody, any format, with printing optional
      • E-commerce a normal course of business for everything
    • Considerations
      • Technology and adoption do not move in lockstep
        • More alternatives chase same resources, solve same problems
      • Technology and profits are rarely simultaneous
      • All technologies are two-sided
        • Internet competes with print
        • Creates and expands opportunities for print businesses
    • U.S. Population Trends Source: U.S. Census Bureau
    • Content Creation Markets
    • Technologies Re-Shape Publishing
    • Publishing’s Future
      • Monetization of content remains a serious issue
        • Critical beyond publishing; content needs to create value
      • Contrary to popular belief, the Internet has limited space
        • “ Shelf space” is part of the Internet, too
      • Small publishing grows and grows and grows
      • Redefinition of publishing as a business
        • Severe downsizing of infrastructure
    • Is This Too Optimistic for Newspapers?
      • Monetizing content remains mysterious and unpredictable
      • Newspapers become magazines; magazines become newspapers
      • The “deadline” or “press time” grows meaningless
    • Where Have All the Printers Gone?
      • On-demand printing is a weak competitor to computer screens
      • Mobile computing of all types continues to reduce reliance on print
      • Are there really opportunities in non-print media?
      • Digital printing has market value because of its inherent integration with communications and information storage and transmission
    • Evolving Nature of Business
      • Globalness for more aspects of business, even the smallest
        • “ Digital proximity”
      • Production is still becoming global, creation and content has not; that will change
      • Increase in global specialization of labor, capital and ideas
        • Interconnectedness becomes more evident
    • Rising Global Wealth Effects
      • Decreased birth rates
      • Increased interest in environmental issues
      • Longer & healthier lifespans
      • Increases in services compared to manufacturing
      • Increasing demands for information, of greater variety and wider means of access
    • What communications needs will emerge, grow, decline?
      • “ Managing” content is not the issue; deploying content is
      • Reaching desired targets is not as important as having targets find the content
        • Search is a natural way of finding information now
        • Social networking “fad” will pass; easy to confuse the tool with a centuries old trend to associate with others of similar nature
        • New trend: lifelong social communications? – “digital neighbors”
      • Bewildering number of access devices is not a call for standardization, but a bewildering number of standards
        • iPhone is culmination of past events, a new building block
    • Where will jobs and opportunities be?
      • Decrease in sales jobs now evident in economic data
      • “Internationalizing” content and deployment
      • Content creation with new tools, in new formats, in new markets: “newness” is always a market-changing trend
      • Specialization in multiple media applications, implementation and deployment
    • Getting ready
      • Create and encourage curiosity
      • Play in the new communications and new media
        • Be the gadget guru for others
        • It’s only cool if you can create unforeseen uses
      • Media rules are being re-written every day
        • The Geico-ization of media strategy
      • Rules may change, but the objectives do not
        • Long-term profitability and innovation never go out of style
    • THANK YOU! Questions?
    • In Search of Dr. Joe… and others…
      • WhatTheyThink.com
        • “ Mondays with Dr. Joe”
        • Economics & Research Center (ERC)
        • ERC Notes
        • ERC Industry Snapshot
      • PrintCEOBlog.com
      • Economic and other webinars