Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of Complex Systems
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Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of Complex Systems

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Presented to the NZ Institute of Health Engineers, 2012, Queenstown, NZ

Presented to the NZ Institute of Health Engineers, 2012, Queenstown, NZ

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  • StoneToStars Wanaka Swath – developed and owned by Henk Roodt 2010.
  • Shutterstock images – licensed to Henk Roodt
  • Shutterstock images – licensed to Henk Roodt
  • Escher print of Waterfall – used from open source www search.
  • Open source images.
  • Cynefin by Snowden, Cascade imposed on Cynefin – Henk Roodt.after a discussion with Snowden.
  • Fingerprint of complex systems: medium sized networks of agents acting on local knowledge to adapt to the environment.The Systems Blob – Henk Roodt 2010Shutterstock images – licensed to Henk Roodt
  • Life cycle diagram developed by Oosthuizen and Roodt, this version – Roodt 2012.
  • Developed by Henk Roodt 2004, Copyright by CSIR South Africa. Contact Henk Roodt for more information.
  • Developed from “A Pattern Language” by Christopher Alexander and concepts from Paul Cilliers – “Complexity and Postmodernism” (1998)
  • See the INCOSE website www.incose.com for links to the holders of the rights to the V process diagrams.
  • Under development for publication, all rights reserved – H Roodt 2012.
  • See www.swemorop.com for more on General Morphological Analysis. Models shown developed by Henk Roodt using software under agreement with the Swedish Morphological Society.
  • Screenshots from Hugin Expert. Models by Henk Roodt.
  • AnyLogic Demo library used as part of screenshot: www.anylogic.com
  • See diagram for sources.

Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of Complex Systems Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of Complex Systems Presentation Transcript

  • Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of Complex Systems Henk Roodt NZ Institute of Healthcare Engineering - 20127/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 1
  • Overview FRAMEWORKS and MODELS? Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic Socio-Technical Systems are Complex Design Frameworks to Cope with Complexity Examples Concluding Remarks7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 2
  • Framework Structure that underlies or support a system or a conceptUsed for clarification and organisationHighlights relationships between ideas, principles and rulesA collection of tools, metrics, processes that can be applied to a problem 7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 3 View slide
  • Model A representation of reality* A model is a representation of theappropriately selected characteristics of a process or an entity** To model a phenomenon is to construct a formal theory that describes and explains it *Ackoff – 1968 **Roodt - 2007 7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 4 View slide
  • Frameworks are related to ModelsFrameworks Models Construct Understand Frameworks & models can help us to discover solutions to problems we face. Both are core to design/systems engineering.7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 5
  • Engineering is about Real Solutions We do not like snake oil We appreciate templates7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 6
  • Reminder from the French If things were simple, word would have gotten round. Jacques Derrida7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 7
  • A Welsh Perspective Cynefin Framework – Dave SnowdenCause and effect emerges, Experts know theno right answer good answersKey: Patterns emerge Key: FactsProbe – Sense - Respond Sense - Analyse - Respond Things just happen Key: High turbulance Policy, process, rules, right answers Act - Sense - Respond (Best practice) Catastrophic Breakdown 7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 8
  • Modern World – Socio-Technical7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 9
  • Approach Philosophy• Classic reductionism cannot work in a complex environment – The sum is greater than the parts (emergence) – Truncation/boundary setting problematic – Systems learn and adapt – no fixed target to try and resolve• Use approaches that allow you to: – Probe – Sense – Respond• Cascade the problem through successive analysis/synthesis loops to identify focus• Relax – there will not be one right answer, only better and worse ones7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 10
  • 0: Solutions must fit User Requirements Solution Life Cycle Shortfall Soluton δ Solution Solution Solution Employment Definition Specification Establishment Operational Required Functional Operating Effectiveness Operational Baseline Baseline (OE) Capability (FBL) (OBL) (ROC) User Domain Solution Provider Domain Definition and design have long term impactLifecycle framework from Oosthuizen and Roodt (2006) 7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 11
  • 1: Addressing the Need/Shortfall7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 12
  • 2: Model-based Engineering7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 13
  • 3: Cascading over Cynefin7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 14
  • 4: Qualitative Descriptions7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 15
  • 5: Develop Conceptual Functional Solutions7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 16
  • 6: V – Build it7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 17
  • Summary Cascade Grasp hierarchy of interactions • favour possibility above probability (and thus allow for emergence) • favour co-existence (consistency) above causality • it must be able to rise above temporal truncation or bracketing (as complex systems are constantly evolving) • embrace hierarchical relationships to allow for evolutionary development7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 18
  • Cascade Qualitative7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 19
  • Cascade Quantitative7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 20
  • Brief Examples• Developing a new military capability• Design of a new hospital facility• Frameworks for business7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 21
  • MilitaryNeed: Minimum Electronic Warfare Capability todeal with local and regional operationsCASCADE: Scenarios, Capabilities, Causalities7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 22
  • Military7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 23
  • Military7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 24
  • Military7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 25
  • Military7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 26
  • MedicalNeed (Hypothetical): PET facility for the SDHBCASCADE the socio-technical problemStage gate• Morphological Analysis of need – Resources, societal needs, national situation, etc.• SOA synthesis• Pattern language design of facility• Agent based flow modelOutput:Development of final specification and project charter7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 27
  • Medical7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 28
  • Business7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 29
  • Conclusion• Design Engineering is often overlooked as a core process.• It is user-focussed if properly done.• It generates traceable output• It reduces risk significantly by surfacing issues when we can still do something about it – at the start.• It has been shown that the design cycle may take only 20% of the full project time, but it impacts more than 80% of the total expenditure.• Coupled to model based engineering, it allows try- before-buy and on-the-fly life cycle management.7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 30
  • Questions www.stonetostars.co.nz Dunedin, NZ For a full list of references to included material, contact info@stonetostars.co.nz7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 31