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Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods
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Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods

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Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods

Dysfunctional neighbourhoods. beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods

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  • 1. School of Environment & Development Dysfunctional neighbourhoods? Beyond the renewal of housing markets in low demand neighbourhoods AAG Conference, Boston, 17th April 2008 Graham Squires : University of Manchester
  • 2. School of Environment & Development Overview 1. Linking to the PhD: Aims, Objectives, Methods and Case Studies 2. An Outline of HMR (Housing Market Renewal) Policy and Areas 3. Neighbourhood Case studies at Manchester City Scale and in a HMR Area 4. Renewing Neighbourhoods: A Demand Problem? 5. Rising Neighbourhood Values: Affordability and Overcrowding 6. Neighbourhood Mix and Social Inclusion in HMR Neighbourhoods 7. Conclusion
  • 3. School of Environment & Development 1. Linking to the PhD: Aims, Objectives, Methods and Case Studies
  • 4. School of Environment & Development Overview of PhD: Aim ‘Exploring the Patterns, Dynamics and Drivers Within and Between Low Demand and Low Value Neighbourhoods at the City Scale and a HMR (Housing Market Renewal) Area’
  • 5. School of Environment & Development Methodology • Initial Question Framework for US Interviewees (10) – Explore Local Information Systems in US – Understand Housing related Neighbourhood Regeneration Projects – Generate further questions for Manchester Case • Quantitative Analysis – Neighbourhood Selection – Local Information System – Review and Data Use – PCA (Principal Component Analysis) / FA (Factor Analysis) – Global Regression – GWR Regression • Return to Qualitative Interviews (25-30) – Confirming & Enhancing Neighbourhood Driver Framework of Correlations and Causality
  • 6. School of Environment & Development Case Studies • Between Neighbourhoods: City of Manchester • Within Neighbourhoods: In Manchester-Salford Pathfinder • More General Cases: Other HMR pathfinders in the UK and industrially restructuring cities in the US. UK US Manchester Chicago Pathfinders: 1. Manchester-Salford (MSP) 2. Merseyside (New Heartlands); 3. Newcastle-Gateshead; 4. South Yorkshire (Transform); 5. Birmingham & Sandwell (Urban Living), 6. Oldham & Rochdale, 7. North Staffordshire (Renew), 8. Hull & East Riding of Yorkshire Baltimore Philadelphia St Louis Detroit
  • 7. School of Environment & Development 2. An Outline of HMR (Housing Market Renewal) Policy and Areas
  • 8. School of Environment & Development Background to the Research: What has been the Government Response? • Government policy in response to low demand neighbourhoods has been to establish in 2002 a Housing Market Renewal Fund, as part of the Sustainable Communities Plan that was initially targeted at nine Pathfinder areas. Map 1: The Nine Housing Market Renewal Pathfinders in England
  • 9. School of Environment & Development Aims of HMR • HMR is largely a physical regeneration programme, aiming to facilitate the improvement and redevelopment of housing stock • Supply of housing more in line with qualitative and quantitative levels of demand • Reverse the negative socio-economic trends which cause decline of housing market within a sub-region • Restore choice and balance in housing markets which have become increasingly ill-suited to the preferences and aspirations of existing residents or potential incoming households (Cole and Nevin, 2004).
  • 10. School of Environment & Development 3. Neighbourhood Case studies at Manchester City Scale and in a HMR Area
  • 11. School of Environment & Development Overall Average House Price – Average £
  • 12. School of Environment & Development Neighbourhood Case Study SOAs within HMR ADF Framework in Manchester
  • 13. School of Environment & Development Collyhurst Neighbourhood Victoria Park (Bellway Homes) from Silchester Drive View of New Build and Monsall Estate Tower Blocks
  • 14. School of Environment & Development Trinity Neighbourhood: Physical Improvement 1. Building Facelifts on Goodman Street 2. Street Scaping on Legrange Road 3. Alley-gating in Trinity Neighbourhood
  • 15. School of Environment & Development Trinity Neighbourhood: New Build 1. New Build Family Homes Nepaul Road 2. New Build Flats Nepaul Road and Moston Lane
  • 16. School of Environment & Development Trinity Neighbourhood: Demolition 1. Boarded up Void Property on Cobden Street, Trinity Neighbourhood 3. Bute Street & CPO and Demolition Area (R&M Developments) 2. Bute Street & CPO and Demolition Area
  • 17. School of Environment & Development 4. Renewing Neighbourhoods: A Demand Problem?
  • 18. School of Environment & Development Inappropriate Supply of Housing? • Poor quality mono-tenure housing (e.g. over supply of terraces) • Restricting choice amongst those with varying incomes • Quality of the stock; fit for purpose, habitable and not threatening to health • Supply related more to the (slower changing) physical built environment
  • 19. School of Environment & Development Low Demand Neighbourhoods • Demand linked more to (faster changing) human social imperatives • Low Demand: ‘Where housing is difficult or impossible to let or sell because there are not enough households looking for homes’ (Bramley and Pawson, 2000). • Characterised by a fall in house prices or rental values, widespread vacancy, population transience and high levels of turnover, physical degradation and an array of socio-economic problems. • Some English cities (North and Midlands – formerly industrial) since the early 1990s have been experiencing decline
  • 20. School of Environment & Development Low Derived Demand •Demand for one good or service occurs as a result of demand for another •Example: Producers have a derived demand for employees (the skills and productivity of employees is in demand by producers, rather than the employees themselves ) •HMR: Cart before the horse? ‘Housing as derived demand has been ignored in the economic argument. If you want to stimulate demand there is a need to get people into jobs but applied with an improvement of housing stock‘ (A1_Academic, 2007). Housing Market as a Driver • Important to look at what the housing market is doing • Access to finance / current housing offer and regeneration projections can affect further investment
  • 21. School of Environment & Development Housing Market Failure and Externalities • HMR area that had signs of market failure with large concentrations of void properties • Costs of failure and the higher public costs that have to be met by poor areas ‘Police costs are also higher in areas of high vacancy as there will always be a correlation between vacancy rates and crime. The result may be a misallocation of resources in these areas and in some instances these costs are out of control…Market failure is a real issue irrespective of house prices’ (C1_HMR Consultant, 2007).
  • 22. School of Environment & Development Low Value Neighbourhoods: An Alternative Concept? •Enables more meaningful analysis of relations between value and neighbourhood characteristics •Surrogate measure of market buoyancy as the values embody many elements including both neighbourhood demand and supply •Low value could extend to housing in the social and private rented sector, as well as the privately owned stock
  • 23. School of Environment & Development 5. Rising Neighbourhood Values: Affordability and Overcrowding
  • 24. School of Environment & Development Average House Price Change by Property Type in Case Study 1 (SOA E01005204) from 2003 onwards £0 £20,000 £40,000 £60,000 £80,000 £100,000 £120,000 £140,000 Q uarter 2003 Q 1 2003 Q 22003 Q 3 2003 Q 42004 Q 1 2004 Q 22004 Q 32004 Q 4 2005 Q 12005 Q 2 2005 Q 32005 Q 4 2006 Q 12006 Q 2 2006 Q 32006 Q 4 Quarter for Property Sales AveragePropertyPrice Overall Detached Semi Terraced Flat New Build Property Sales in Case 1 (SOA E01005204) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 Q 2 2000 Q 3 2000 Q 4 2001 Q 1 2001 Q 2 2001 Q 3 2001 Q 4 2002 Q 1 2002 Q 2 2002 Q 3 2002 Q 4 2003 Q 1 2003 Q 2 2003 Q 3 2003 Q 4 2004 Q 1 2004 Q 2 2004 Q 3 2004 Q 4 2005 Q 1 2005 Q 2 2005 Q 3 2005 Q 4 2006 Q 1 2006 Q 2 2006 Q 3 2006 Q 4 Quarter of Property Sales NumberofPropertySales Overall Sales Detached Sales Semi-Detached Sales Terraced Sales Flat Sales New Build Sales Collyhurst : Rising Values and Aggregated Value Neighbourhood
  • 25. School of Environment & Development Trinity : Rising Values and Aggregated Value Neighbourhood Average Property Price per Quarter by Property Type for Case 2 (E01005207) from 2003 Onwards £0 £20,000 £40,000 £60,000 £80,000 £100,000 £120,000 £140,000 £160,000 Quarter 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 Quarter for Property Sales AveragePropertySales Price Overall Detached Semi Terraced Flat New Build Property Sales for Case 2 (E01005207) from 2000 (Q2) Onwards 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 Q 2 2000 Q 3 2000 Q 4 2001 Q 1 2001 Q 2 2001 Q 3 2001 Q 4 2002 Q 1 2002 Q 2 2002 Q 3 2002 Q 4 2003 Q 1 2003 Q 2 2003 Q 3 2003 Q 4 2004 Q 1 2004 Q 2 2004 Q 3 2004 Q 4 2005 Q 1 2005 Q 2 2005 Q 3 2005 Q 4 2006 Q 1 2006 Q 2 2006 Q 3 2006 Q 4 Quarter for Property Sales NumberofPropertySales Overall Sales Detached Sales Semi-Detached Sales Terraced Sales Flat Sales New Build Sales
  • 26. School of Environment & Development Masked Housing Values and Underlying Socio-Economic Problems 2. Overcrowding •Interviewee testimony (Tenants and Residents Association Leader) that higher rents demanded by landlords in the private-rented market had precipitated a growing number of overcrowding of low income households in multiply-occupied houses •Premature to conclude whether multiple-occupancy will persist (e.g. the labour market consequences of economic cycles in host and donor countries, or fluctuations in exchange rates). •Clustering of houses in multiple occupancy has significant implications for the balance of household categories within a neighbourhood
  • 27. School of Environment & Development 6. Neighbourhood Mix and Social Inclusion in HMR Neighbourhoods
  • 28. School of Environment & Development Neighbourhood Mix •Extent to which mixed communities have materialised in HMR areas is difficult to gauge in the short period •Argued by developer that the form of development engendered by HMR is having profound impact on the social character of some neighbourhoods ‘ buildings are designed so that you cannot recognise the difference between public and privately purchased properties, or the difference between one and two bedroom houses from three or four bedroom properties…an essential ingredient is choice, allowing people to move within the neighbourhood as incomes rise and move up the property ladder’ (D1_Developer / HMR Board Member, 2007).
  • 29. School of Environment & Development Social Cohesion and Inclusion •Ethnic mix as an important feature for social cohesion ‘It has been difficult in some cases…where community cohesion has been restricted with racial tensions. There have been plans to meet these needs, for instance project planning for redevelopment is done in a way to meet all types in the community’ (N1_CLG / HMR Leader, 2007) •Social and economic mobility identified as a barrier to neighbourhood social inclusion (e.g. decision-making for jobs). ‘The evidence is saying that thwarted mobility is not the problem as people can just move or get work as there are jobs available. [But] mobility is restricted because (a) people don’t move for low-paid short term jobs, and (b) people could be supported in the informal sector. As a result this makes thwarted mobility arguments difficult to look at and research’ (P3_Professor / HMR Advisor, 2007)
  • 30. School of Environment & Development 7. Conclusion
  • 31. School of Environment & Development • Apparent health of housing markets in some HMR neighbourhoods need to be treated with a degree of caution as rising house prices do not indicate a full or complete neighbourhood recovery and to function in a ‘normal’ way • Rising aggregate value masks the persistence of lower values, and is driven to a large extent by new build that is not always sensitive of neighbourhood-wide recovery • New build can impact on widening inequalities within a neighbourhood (E.g. Affordability of existing residents – rents; but creating re-population?) • Damaging side-effects, such as investors (e.g. private landlords) promoting reduced emotional and psychological attachment to the neighbourhood creating social cohesion issues and neighbourhood dysfunctionality Conclusion

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